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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Tensor decompositions for count data that leverage stochastic and deterministic optimization

There is growing interest to extend low-rank matrix decompositions to multi-way arrays, or tensors. One fundamental low-rank tensor decomposition is the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD). The challenge of fitting a low-rank, nonnegative CPD model to Poisson-distributed count data is of particular interest. Several popular algorithms use local search methods to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the Poisson CPD model. Here, this work presents two new algorithms that extend state-of-the-art local methods for Poisson CPD. Hybrid GCP-CPAPR combines Generalized Canonical Decomposition (GCP) with stochastic optimization and CP Alternating Poisson Regression (CPAPR), a deterministic algorithm, to increase the probability of converging to the MLE over either method used alone. Restarted CPAPR with SVDrop uses a heuristic based on the singular values of the CPD model unfoldings to identify convergence toward optimizers that are not the MLE and restarts within the feasible domain of the optimization problem, thus reducing overall computational cost when using a multi-start strategy. We provide empirical evidence that indicates our approaches outperform existing methods with respect to converging to the Poisson CPD MLE.

CPAPR↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson-response Tensor-on-Tensor Regression and Applications

We introduce Poisson-response tensor-on-tensor regression (PToTR), a novel regression framework designed to handle tensor responses composed element-wise of random Poisson-distributed counts. Tensors, or multi-dimensional arrays, composed of counts are common data in fields such as inter national relations, social networks, epidemiology, and medical imaging, where events occur across multiple dimensions like time, location, and dyads. PToTR accommodates such tensor responses alongside tensor covariates, providing a versatile tool for multi dimensional data analysis. We propose algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation under a canonical polyadic (CP) structure on the regression coefficient tensor that satisfy the positivity of Poisson parameters and then provide an initial theoretical error analysis for PToTR estimators. We also demonstrate the utility of PToTR through three concrete applications: longitudinal data analysis of the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System database, positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction, and change-point detection of communication patterns in longitudinal dyadic data. These applications highlight the versatility of PToTR in addressing complex, structured count data across various domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Statistician’s Overview of Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Data

The recent success of deep neural network models with physical constraints (so-called, Physics-Informed Neural Networks, PINNs) has led to renewed interest in the incorporation of mechanistic information in predictive models. Statisticians and others have long been interested in this problem, which has led to several practical and innovative solutions dating back decades. In this overview, we focus on the problem of data-driven prediction and inference of dynamic spatio-temporal processes that include mechanistic information, such as would be available from partial differential equations, with a strong focus on the quantification of uncertainty associated with data, process, and parameters. Here, we give a brief review of several paradigms and focus our attention on Bayesian implementations given they naturally accommodate uncertainty quantification. We then show that it is straight-forward to include the Bayesian PINN (B-PINN) within the Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) framework that has long been considered for modeling dynamic spatio-temporal processes. Such a BHM-PINN is illustrated via a simulation study in which a latent nonlinear Burgers’ equation PDE governs the dynamics of Poisson distributed spatio-temporal data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian↗
DOE OSTI2025

Event-driven readout development: testing of the EDWARD65P1 chip with integrated event generators

Building on a prototype readout integrated circuit for segmented silicon sensors with the EDWARD event-driven readout architecture, the front-end in each pixel was replaced by a hardware generator to verify readout performance, ensuring no data loss, consistent priority handling, and speed verification. Here, this generator produces Poisson-distributed readout requests with individually tunable rates per pixel via a digitally controlled oscillator. The resulting EDWARD65P1 test ASIC is a 32×32 pixel matrix with a 100 μm pitch, equipped with digital event generators simulating radiation hits at user-defined rates. Test results for this new design are presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum chaos, integrability, and late times in the Krylov basis

Quantum chaotic systems are conjectured to display a spectrum whose fine-grained features (gaps and correlations) are well described by random matrix theory (RMT). We propose and develop a complementary version of this conjecture: quantum chaotic systems display a Lanczos spectrum whose local means and covariances are well described by RMT. To support this proposal, we first demonstrate its validity in examples of chaotic and integrable systems. We then show that for Haar-random initial states in RMTs the mean and covariance of the Lanczos spectrum suffice to produce the full long-time behavior of general survival probabilities including the spectral form factor, as well as the spread complexity. In addition, for initial states with continuous overlap with energy eigenstates, we analytically find the long-time averages of the probabilities of Krylov basis elements in terms of the mean Lanczos spectrum. This analysis suggests a notion of eigenstate complexity, the statistics of which differentiate integrable systems and classes of quantum chaos. Lastly, we clarify the relation between spread complexity and the universality classes of RMT by exploring various values of the Dyson index and Poisson distributed spectra.

Combinatorics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic within-host mathematical model of inhalational anthrax

We present a mathematical model of the dynamics of Bacillus anthracis bacteria within the lymph nodes and blood of a host, following inhalation of an initial dose of spores. We also incorporate the dynamics of protective antigen, which is the binding component of the anthrax toxin produced by the bacteria. The model offers a mechanistic description of the early infection dynamics of inhalational anthrax, while its stochastic nature allows us to study the probabilities of different outcomes (for example, how likely it is that the infection will be cleared for a given inhaled dose of spores) in order to explain dose-response data for inhalational anthrax. The model is calibrated via a Bayesian approach, using in vivo data from New Zealand white rabbit and guinea pig infection studies, enabling within-host parameters to be estimated. We also leverage incubation-period data from the Sverdlovsk 1979 anthrax outbreak to show that the model can accurately describe human time-to-symptoms data under reasonable parameter regimes. Finally, we derive a simple approximate formula for the probability of symptom onset before time t, assuming that the number of inhaled spores has a Poisson distribution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuzzy spheres in stringy matrix models: quantifying chaos in a mixed phase space

We consider a truncation of the BMN matrix model to a configuration of two fuzzy spheres, described by two coupled non-linear oscillators dependent on the mass parameter μ. The classical phase diagram of the system generically (μ ≠ 0) contains three equilibrium points: two centers and a center-saddle; as μ → 0 the system exhibits a pitchfork bifurcation. We demonstrate that the system is exactly integrable in quadratures for μ = 0, while for very large values of μ, it approaches another integrable point characterized by two harmonic oscillators. The classical phase space is mixed, containing both integrable islands and chaotic regions, as evidenced by the classical Lyapunov spectrum. At the quantum level, we explore indicators of early and late time chaos. The eigenvalue spacing is best described by a Brody distribution, which interpolates between Poisson and Wigner distributions; it dovetails, at the quantum level, the classical results and reemphasizes the notion that the quantum system is mixed. We also study the spectral form factor and the quantum Lyapunov exponent, as defined by out-of-time-ordered correlators. These two indicators of quantum chaos exhibit weak correlations with the Brody distribution. We speculate that the behavior of the system as μ → 0 dominates the spectral form factor and the quantum Lyapunov exponent, making these indicators of quantum chaos less effective in the context of a mixed phase space.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-linear dynamics of jet quenching

We develop a comprehensive analytic framework for jet quenching in QCD media, based on a medium-induced parton cascade sourced by collinear virtual splittings. We show that the energy flow out of the jet cone, driven by turbulent gluon cascades, is governed by a non-linear rate equation that resums gluon splittings at arbitrary angles and is enhanced by the medium length, L. The solution of this equation sets the initial condition for a non-linear DGLAP-like evolution equation, which describes the collinear early vacuum cascade resolved by the medium at angles exceeding the medium resolution angle, θ c . For asymptotic jet energies, the medium-induced cascade displays an exponential behavior that generalizes the Poisson-like distribution of parton energy loss. This formulation enables the resummation of leading contributions in α s ln(1/R), and α s ln(R/θ c ), and powers of α s L. We briefly explore the limit of strong quenching, where analytic treatments are feasible, offering insights into the impact of parton cascades on jet quenching. These results provide guidance for future numerical simulations and analytical investigations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiplicity and net-electric charge fluctuations in central Ar+Sc interactions at 13 A , 19 A , 30 A , 40 A , 75 A , and 150 A GeV/c beam momenta measured by NA61/SHINE at the CERN SPS

This paper presents results on multiplicity fluctuations of positively and negatively charged hadrons as well as net-electric charge fluctuations measured in central Ar+Sc interactions at beam momenta 13 A , 19 A , 30 A , 40 A , 75 A , and 150 A GeV/c. The fluctuation analysis is one of the tools to search for the predicted critical point of strongly interacting matter. Results are corrected for the experimental biases and quantified using cumulant ratios. In most instances, multiplicity and net-charge distributions appear narrower than the corresponding Poisson or Skellam distributions. Cumulant ratios are compared with the EPOS1.99 model predictions, which provide a qualitative description that aligns with observations for positively and negatively charged particles. The obtained results are also compared to earlier NA61/SHINE results from inelastic p+p interactions in the same analysis acceptance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Krylov complexity in mixed phase space

We investigate the Krylov complexity of thermofield double states in systems with mixed phase space, uncovering a direct correlation with the Brody distribution, which interpolates between Poisson and Wigner statistics. Our analysis spans two-dimensional random matrix models featuring (I) GOE-Poisson and (II) GUE-Poisson transitions and extends to higher-dimensional cases, including a stringy matrix model (GOE-Poisson) and the mass-deformed SYK model (GUE-Poisson). Krylov complexity consistently emerges as a reliable marker of quantum chaos, displaying a characteristic peak in the chaotic regime that gradually diminishes as the Brody parameter approaches zero, signaling a shift toward integrability. These results establish Krylov complexity as a powerful diagnostic of quantum chaos and highlight its interplay with eigenvalue statistics in mixed phase systems.

chaos & nonlinear dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Poisson tensor completion non-parametric differential entropy estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator, a non-parametric differential entropy estimator. The PTC estimator leverages inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the intensity measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed PTC differential entropy estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values and so can be safely used directly in entropy estimation. Our estimator is the first tensor-based estimator that exploits the underlying spatial Poisson process related to the histogram explicitly when estimating the probability density with low-rank tensor decompositions for the purpose of tensor completion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Link statistics of dislocation network during strain hardening

Dislocations are line defects in crystals that multiply and self-organize into a complex network during strain hardening. The length of dislocation links, connecting neighboring nodes within this network, contains crucial information about the evolving dislocation microstructure. By analyzing data from Discrete Dislocation Dynamics (DDD) simulations in face-centered cubic (fcc) Cu, we characterize the statistical distribution of link lengths of dislocation networks during strain hardening on individual slip systems. Here, our analysis reveals that link lengths on active slip systems follow a double-exponential distribution, while those on inactive slip systems conform to a single-exponential distribution. The distinctive long tail observed in the double-exponential distribution is attributed to the stress-induced bowing out of long links on active slip systems, a feature that disappears upon removal of the applied stress. We further demonstrate that both observed link length distributions can be explained by extending a one-dimensional Poisson process to include different growth functions. Specifically, the double-exponential distribution emerges when the growth rate for links exceeding a critical length becomes super-linear, which aligns with the physical phenomenon of long links bowing out under stress. This work advances our understanding of dislocation microstructure evolution during strain hardening and elucidates the underlying physical mechanisms governing its formation.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological perturbation theory for large scale structure in phase space

We develop a framework for Large Scale Structure (LSS) perturbation theory, that solves the Vlasov-Poisson system of equations for the distribution function in full phase space. This approach relaxes the usual apriori assumption of negligible velocity dispersion underlying the Standard Perturbation Theory (SPT). We apply the new method to rederive the usual SPT kernels up to third order in the perturbative expansion. We also show that a counterterm, identical to the one introduced by standard Effective Field Theory (EFT) methods, naturally arises within our framework. We finish by making a precise connection to EFT techniques, which reveals the necessity of the EFTofLSS to self-consistently model the long-wavelength fluid, and illustrates the importance of having theoretical control over short distance fluctuations.

Cosmological perturbation theory in GR and beyond↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Poisson tensor completion parametric estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator that exploits inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram for samples of a multivariate distribution. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial non-homogeneous Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the mean measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values obviating the need for additional constraints to ensure non-negativity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Poisson Equation for a (General) Homogeneous d-Dimensional Ellipsoid with Applications to Beam Envelope Tracking

This note describes the solution of the free-space Poisson equation in the interior of a $d$-dimensional homogeneous ellipsoid, and the associated space charge fields. An explicit formula (\ref{Sformula}) is provided that relates the $d\times d$ matrix describing the space charge (quadratic) potential to the $d\times d$ covariance matrix of the ellipsoid. For the cases $d=2$ and $d=3$, this result is used to determine the linear map corresponding to a space charge kick, that may be used to push the beam $6\times 6$ covariance matrix during envelope tracking. The treatment of upright ellipsoids for $d=2$ and $d=3$ is well-represented in the literature. However, the approach taken here emphasizes a general ellipsoid with arbitrary correlations in any dimension. The Appendix provides a general solution of the free-space Poisson equation in dimension $d$ for a source distribution with ellipsoidal symmetry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating high-order continuum kinetic plasma simulations using multiple GPUs

Kinetic plasma simulations solve the Vlasov-Poisson or Vlasov-Maxwell equations to evolve scalar-variable distribution functions in position-velocity phase space and vector-variable electromagnetic fields in configuration space. The immense computational cost of evolving high-dimensional variables, and their large number of degrees of freedom, often limits the utility of continuum kinetic simulations and presents a challenge when it comes to accurately simulating real-world physical phenomena. To address this challenge, we present techniques that accelerate and minimize the computational work required for a scalable Vlasov-Poisson solver. We show theoretical hardware compute and communication bounds for solving a fourth-order finite-volume Vlasov-Poisson system. These bounds are then used to inform and evaluate the design of performance portable algorithms for a multiple graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated version of the Vlasov-Poisson solver VCK-CPU [1]. We demonstrate that the multi-GPU Vlasov solver implementation, VCK-GPU, simultaneously minimizes required inter-process data transfer while also being bounded by the machine network performance limits. This results in an overall strong scaling speedup per timestep of up to 40x in three-dimensional phase space (one position, two velocity coordinates) and 54x in four dimensional phase space (two position, two velocity coordinates) and a 341x increase in simulation throughput of the GPU accelerated code over the existing CPU code. The GPU code is also able to weak scale up to 256 compute nodes and 1024 GPUs. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the improved compute performance enables exploring configurations which were previously computationally infeasible, including resolving fine-scale distribution function filamentation and multi-species dynamics with realistic electron-proton mass ratios.

Continuum kinetics↗