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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Late-time small body disruptions for planetary defense

Here, diverting hazardous small bodies on impact trajectories with the Earth can in some circumstances be impossible without risking disrupting them. Disruption is a much more difficult planetary defense scenario to assess, being linked both to the response of the body to shock loading and the much more complicated gravitational dynamics of the fragments in the solar system relative to pure deflection scenarios. In this work we present a new simulation suite built on N-body gravitational methods that solves fragment orbits in the full gravitational system without recourse to more approximate methods. We assess the accuracy of our simulations and the simplifying assumptions we adopt to make the system tractable, and then discuss in more detail several specific, plausible planetary defense scenarios based on real close encounters. We find that disruption can be a very effective planetary defense strategy even for very late (sub-year) interventions, and should be considered an effective backup strategy should preferred methods, which require long warning times, fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Two Bright M Dwarfs Hosting Ultra-Short-Period Super-Earths with Earth-like Compositions

We present observations of two bright M dwarfs (TOI-1634 and TOI-1685: J = 9.5–9.6) hosting ultra-short-period (USP) planets identified by the TESS mission. The two stars are similar in temperature, mass, and radius (T {sub eff} ≈ 3500 K, M {sub &middot;} ≈ 0.45–0.46 M {sub ⊙}, and R {sub &middot;} ≈ 0.45–0.46 R {sub ⊙}), and the planets are both super-Earth size (1.25 R {sub ⊕} < R {sub p} < 2.0 R {sub ⊕}). For both systems, light curves from ground-based photometry exhibit planetary transits, whose depths are consistent with those from the TESS photometry. We also refine the transit ephemerides based on the ground-based photometry, finding the orbital periods of P = 0.9893436 ± 0.0000020 days and P = 0.6691416 ± 0.0000019 days for TOI-1634b and TOI-1685b, respectively. Through intensive radial velocity (RV) observations using the InfraRed Doppler (IRD) instrument on the Subaru 8.2 m telescope, we confirm the planetary nature of the TOIs and measure their masses: 10.14 ± 0.95 M {sub ⊕} and 3.43 ± 0.93 M {sub ⊕} for TOI-1634b and TOI-1685b, respectively, when the observed RVs are fitted with a single-planet circular-orbit model. Combining those with the planet radii of R {sub p} = 1.749 ± 0.079 R {sub ⊕} (TOI-1634b) and 1.459 ± 0.065 R {sub ⊕} (TOI-1685b), we find that both USP planets have mean densities consistent with an Earth-like internal composition, which is typical for small USP planets. TOI-1634b is currently the most massive USP planet in this category, and it resides near the radius valley, which makes it a benchmark planet in the context of discussing the size limit of rocky planet cores as well as testing the formation scenarios for USP planets. Excess scatter in the RV residuals for TOI-1685 suggests the presence of a possible secondary planet or unknown activity/instrumental noise in the RV data, but further observations are required to check those possibilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large Methane Emissions From the Pantanal During Rising Water‐Levels Revealed by Regularly Measured Lower Troposphere CH 4 Profiles

Abstract The Pantanal region of Brazil is the largest seasonally flooded tropical grassland and, according to local chamber measurements, a substantial CH 4 source. CH 4 emissions from wetlands have recently become of heightened interest because global atmospheric 13 CH 4 data indicate they may contribute to the resumption of atmospheric CH 4 growth since 2007. We have regularly measured vertical atmospheric profiles for 2 years in the center of the Pantanal with the objectives to obtain an estimate of CH 4 emissions using an atmospheric approach, and provide information about flux seasonality and its relation to controlling factors. Boundary layer‐free troposphere differences observed in the Pantanal are large compared to other wetlands. Total emissions based on a planetary boundary layer budgeting technique are 2.0–2.8 TgCH 4 yr −1 (maximum flux ∼0.4 gCH 4 m −2 d −1 ) while those based on a Bayesian inversion using an atmospheric transport model are ∼3.3 TgCH 4 yr −1 . Compared to recent estimates for Amazonia (∼41 ± 3 TgCH 4 yr −1 , maximum flux ∼0.3 gCH 4 m −2 d −1 ) these emissions are not that large. Our Pantanal data suggest a clear flux seasonality with CH 4 being released in large amounts just after water levels begin to rise again after minimum levels have been reached. CH 4 emissions decline substantially once the maximum water level has been reached. While predictions with prognostic wetland CH 4 emission models agree well with the magnitude of the fluxes, they disagree with the phasing. Our approach shows promise for detecting and understanding longer‐term trends in CH 4 emissions and the potential for future wetlands CH 4 emissions climate feedbacks.

Gloor, M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building wet planets through high-pressure magma–hydrogen reactions

Close-in transiting sub-Neptunes are abundant in our Galaxy. Planetary interior models based on their observed radius–mass relationship suggest that sub-Neptunes contain a discernible amount of either hydrogen (dry planets) or water (wet planets) blanketing a core composed of rocks and metal. Water-rich sub-Neptunes have been believed to form farther from the star and then migrate inwards to their present orbits. Here we report experimental evidence of reactions between warm, dense hydrogen fluid and silicate melt that release silicon from the magma to form alloys and hydrides at high pressures. We found that oxygen liberated from the silicate melt reacts with hydrogen, producing an appreciable amount of water up to a few tens of weight per cent, which is much greater than previously predicted based on low-pressure ideal gas extrapolation. Consequently, these reactions can generate a spectrum of water contents in hydrogen-rich planets, with the potential to reach water-rich compositions for some sub-Neptunes, implying an evolutionary relationship between hydrogen-rich and water-rich planets. Therefore, detection of a large amount of water in exoplanet atmospheres may not be the optimal evidence for planet migration in the protoplanetary disk, calling into question the assumed link between composition and planet formation location.

Horn, H. W. [Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations preliminarily predict the habitability and radio emission of TRAPPIST-1e

TRAPPIST-1e, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone of the nearby M dwarf TRAPPIST-1, may experience magnetospheric responses that vary with stellar space weather, which could potentially influence both its habitability and radio emissions. Our objective is to investigate how different Earth-like magnetospheric configurations of TRAPPIST-1e – specifically variations in dipolar magnetic field strength and axial tilt – respond to diverse stellar space weather conditions, including events analogous to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and to assess their implications for potential habitability and expected radio emissions. We conducted 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the TRAPPIST-1e system using the PLUTO code in spherical coordinates. The planetary magnetic field was modelled as dipolar, with equatorial strengths from Earth-like to several times stronger. The dipole axis spans a representative range of axial tilts. We investigate four stellar wind environments, from sub-Alfvénic flow to CME-like disturbances. Planetary shielding was quantified based on the magnetopause standoff distance, and radio powers were estimated via empirical scaling laws. Our simulations show that both shielding and radio power depend strongly on the magnetic configuration. Stronger fields increase protection, while larger tilts reduce it. Radio power increases with both field strength and tilt across all wind regimes. An Earth-like magnetic field can provide effective shielding even under intense CMEs, whereas high tilts require stronger fields. Predicted radio powers reach ~10 20 erg s −1 during CMEs, making bursts from close-in, magnetised planets more detectable. However, for TRAPPIST-1e, the maximum cyclotron frequency lies below the Earth’s ionospheric cutoff (~10 MHz), making ground-based detection currently infeasible.

Sun: magnetic fields↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing turbulence and mixing parameterizations in the gray-zone of multiscale simulations over mountainous terrain during the METEX21 field experiment

Multiscale numerical weather prediction models transition from mesoscale, where turbulence is fully parameterized, to microscale, where the majority of highly energetic scales of turbulence are resolved. The turbulence gray-zone is situated between these two regimes and multiscale models must downscale through these resolutions. Here, we compare three multiscale simulations which vary by the parameterization used for turbulence and mixing within the gray-zone. The three parameterizations analyzed are the Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and Niino (MYNN) Level 2.5 planetary boundary layer scheme, the TKE-1.5 large eddy simulation (LES) closure scheme, and a recently developed three-dimensional planetary boundary layer scheme based on the Mellor-Yamada model. The simulation domain includes complex (i.e., mountainous) terrain in Nevada that was instrumented with meteorological towers, profiling and scanning lidars, a tethered balloon, and a surface flux tower. Simulations are compared to each other and to observations, with assessment of model skill at predicting wind speed, wind direction and TKE, and qualitative evaluations of transport and dispersion of smoke from controlled releases. This analysis demonstrates that microscale predictions of transport and dispersion can be significantly influenced by the choice of turbulence and mixing parameterization in the terra incognita , particularly over regions of complex terrain and with strong local forcing. This influence may not be apparent in the analysis of model skill, and motivates future field campaigns involving controlled tracer releases and corresponding modeling studies of the turbulence gray-zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regularized Differentiation for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

In this paper, we propose and investigate the performance of two novel shrinkage estimators for bioburden density estimation in planetary protection. The estimators are based on the regularized differentiation of a cumulative count of colony forming units collected throughout the data collecting session or the life cycle of the entire mission. The regularized differentiation recasts the problem of bioburden density estimation as a linear least squares problem. The least squares problem is then solved through regularization techniques, such as truncated singular value decomposition and penalized least squares. The regularization is necessary to avoid noise amplification during the differentiation of noisy data. The two regularization estimators are compared with four other commonly used estimators to simultaneously evaluate the means of multivariable independent Poisson distributions: the maximum likelihood, noninformative Bayes estimator with Jeffreys prior, Empirical Bayes using conjugate gamma-Poisson model with gamma parameters selected by method of moments, and the Clevenson-Zidek estimator. It is shown through computer-simulated data that the regularized differentiation based on ridge regression has the smallest mean-squared error among all estimators. The analysis of shrinkage mechanism implemented by regularized differentiation is performed, and it is shown that the regularized differentiation amounts to performing a weighted averaging of all the samples. The weights are determined by the regularization parameter automatically selected by the L-curve technique. Since the method of least squares makes no distributional assumptions about the data, it presents an attractive technique for bioburden density estimation when there are concerns about the misspecification of the distributional model. The paper concludes with the analysis of the bioburden data collected during InSight mission and directions for future work.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Nonzenith Elevation Angles on Ground-Based Infrared Thermodynamic Retrievals

Observing thermodynamic profiles within the planetary boundary layer is essential to understanding and predicting atmospheric phenomena because of the significant exchange of sensible and latent heat between the land and atmosphere within that layer. The Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) is a ground-based infrared spectrometer used to obtain the vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio. Most AERIs are only capable of zenith views, although the Marine AERI (M-AERI) has a design that allows it to view various elevation angles. In this study, we quantify the improvement in the information content and accuracy of the retrieved profiles when nonzenith angles are included, as is common with microwave radiometer profilers. The impacts of the additional scan angles are quantified through both a synthetic study and with M-AERI observations from the ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) campaign. Furthermore, the simulation study shows that low elevation angles contain more information content for temperature whereas high elevation angles have more information content for water vapor. Outside of very humid environments, the addition of low elevation angles also results in lower root-mean-square errors when compared with high angles for both temperature and water vapor mixing ratio, although this is primarily a result of averaging multiple observations together to reduce instrument noise. Real-world results from the ACAPEX dataset indicate similar results as were found for the simulation study, although not all predicted benefits are realized because of the small sample size and observational uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurements of sound propagation in Mars' lower atmosphere

Acoustics has become extraterrestrial and Mars provides a new natural laboratory for testing sound propagation models compared to those ones on Earth. Owing to the unique combination of a microphone and two sound sources, the Ingenuity helicopter and the SuperCam laser-induced sparks, the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover payload enables the in situ characterization of unique sound propagation properties of the low-pressure CO 2 -dominated Mars atmosphere. In this study, we show that atmospheric turbulence is responsible for a large variability in the sound amplitudes from laser-induced sparks. This variability follows the diurnal pattern of turbulence. In addition, acoustic measurements acquired over one Martian year reveal a variation of the sound intensity by a factor of 1.8 from a constant source due to the seasonal cycle of pressure and temperature that significantly modifies the acoustic impedance and shock-wave formation. Finally, we show that the evolution of the Ingenuity tones and laser spark amplitudes with distance is consistent with one of the existing sound absorption models, which is a key parameter for numerical simulations applied to geophysical experiments on CO 2 -rich atmospheres. Overall, these results demonstrate the potential of sound propagation to interrogate the Mars environment and will therefore help in the design of future acoustic-based experiments for Mars or other planetary atmospheres such as Venus and Titan.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recombination of Autodissociated Water Ions in a Nanoscale Pure Water Droplet

The recombination of water ions has diverse scientific and practical implications, ranging from acid-base chemistry and biological systems to planetary environments and applications in fuel cell and carbon conversion technologies. While spatial confinement affects the physicochemical properties of water dynamics, its impact on the recombination process has rarely been studied. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of water, the water ion distribution, and the ion recombination process in water droplets as a function of droplet size through molecular dynamics simulations and adaptive quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical calculations. We compare the dynamics of recombination in water droplet sizes ranging from 100 to 18 000 waters, both in their interiors and on their surfaces. We found that the self-diffusion of water dramatically decreases in droplets with a diameter below 2.2 nm. Using a classical RexPoN force-field, we found that the ions in 1000 H2O's spend almost 50% of the time on the surface and 0.5 nm beneath it with a slight preference for OH- ion to reside longer on the surface. We estimate that, on average, recombination in these drops occurs at 400 ps in 1000 H2O's and 1 ns in 3000 H2O's. We also found that recombination is not limited by the local structure of the surface or the size of the droplet but can be influenced by the geometry of the water wire connecting the ions as they approach each other, which can often prevent recombination. Our results provide insights to the reaction microenvironments presented by nanoscopic water droplets.

Kwon, Soonho↗
DOE OSTI2020

Origin and mitigation of wind noise on balloon-borne infrasound microbarometers

High-altitude monitoring of low-frequency acoustic waves (infrasound) on Earth has regained prominence in recent years, primarily driven by improvements in light-weight sensor technology and advances in scientific ballooning techniques. Balloon-borne infrasound monitoring is also being proposed as a remote sensing technique for planetary exploration. Contrary to ground-based infrasound monitoring, the infrasound noise background in the stratosphere as measured by a balloon remains uncharacterized and the efficacy of wind noise mitigation filters has not been investigated. In this study, an analysis of pressure data collected using infrasound microbarometers during the flight of a long-duration zero pressure balloon is presented. Here, a dramatic reduction of background noise in the stratosphere is demonstrated and it is shown that wind noise mitigation filters are not effective at reducing wind noise under these conditions. Results from this study demonstrate stratospheric balloons as a low-noise platform for infrasound monitoring and motivate the development of improved noise mitigation tools.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Achievement of the Planetary Defense Investigations of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was the first to demonstrate asteroid deflection, and the mission's Level 1 requirements guided its planetary defense investigations. Here, we summarize DART's achievement of those requirements. On 2022 September 26, the DART spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the secondary member of the Didymos near-Earth asteroid binary system, demonstrating an autonomously navigated kinetic impact into an asteroid with limited prior knowledge for planetary defense. Months of subsequent Earth-based observations showed that the binary orbital period was changed by –33.24 minutes, with two independent analysis methods each reporting a 1 σ uncertainty of 1.4 s. Dynamical models determined that the momentum enhancement factor, β , resulting from DART's kinetic impact test is between 2.4 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos, which remains the largest source of uncertainty. Over five dozen telescopes across the globe and in space, along with the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids, have contributed to DART's investigations. These combined investigations have addressed topics related to the ejecta, dynamics, impact event, and properties of both asteroids in the binary system. A year following DART's successful impact into Dimorphos, the mission has achieved its planetary defense requirements, although work to further understand DART's kinetic impact test and the Didymos system will continue. In particular, ESA's Hera mission is planned to perform extensive measurements in 2027 during its rendezvous with the Didymos–Dimorphos system, building on DART to advance our knowledge and continue the ongoing international collaboration for planetary defense.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retrieved Number concentration of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (RNCCN) Value-Added Product (VAP)

The objective of Retrieved Number concentration of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (RNCCN) Value-Added Product (VAP) is to provide the vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations to better represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models. The RNCCN VAP allows to collect a large number of independent samples of vertical CCN measurements at various supersaturation values from the ground. This helps to avoid the high cost of aircraft and increases the temporal distribution of retrieved CCN in the planetary boundary layer. The VAP method is based on Ghan and Collins (2004) and Ghan et al. (2006) proposed parameterizations that retrieve the vertical profiles of CCN directly from the ground level CCN, humidification factor, and in-situ lidar measurements. Further, the VAP accuracy is improved by using the quality controlled data that ensures that the boundary layer is well mixed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Information Content of a Synergy of Ground-Based and Space-Based Infrared Sounders. Part I: Clear-Sky Environments

Abstract Profiles of atmospheric temperature and water vapor from remotely sensed platforms provide critical observations within the temporal and spatial gaps of the radiosonde network. The 2017 National Academies of Science Decadal Survey highlighted that observations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) from the current space-based observing system are not of the necessary accuracy or resolution for monitoring and predicting high-impact weather phenomena. One possible solution to improving observations of the PBL is supplementing the existing space-based observing system with a network of ground-based profilers. A synthetic information content study is developed utilizing profiles from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites at the Southern Great Plains (SGP), east North Atlantic (ENA), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to assess the benefits, in terms of degrees of freedom (DOF), vertical resolution, and uncertainties, of a synergy between the ground-based Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) with space-based hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders. A combination of AERI with any of the three polar-orbiting IR sounders: the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), or the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), results in a DOF increase of 30%–40% in the surface-to-700-hPa layer compared to the space-based instrument alone. Introducing AERI measurements to the observing system also results in significant improvements to vertical resolution and uncertainties in the bottom 1000 m of the atmosphere compared to CrIS measurements alone. A synergy of CrIS and AERI exceeds the 1-km-vertical-resolution goal set by the Decadal Survey in the lowest 1000 m.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shortest Microlensing Event with a Bound Planet: KMT-2016-BLG-2605

With a planet–host mass ratio q = 0.012 ± 0.001, KMT-2016-BLG-2605 has the shortest Einstein timescale, t {sub E} = 3.41 ± 0.13 days, of any planetary microlensing event to date. This prompts us to examine the full sample of seven short (t {sub E} < 7 days) planetary events with good q measurements. We find that six have clustered Einstein radii θ {sub E} = 115 ± 20 μas and lens–source relative proper motions μ {sub rel} ≃ 9.5 ± 2.5 mas yr{sup -1}. For the seventh, these two quantities could not be measured. These distributions are consistent with a Galactic bulge population of very low mass (VLM) hosts near the hydrogen-burning limit. This conjecture could be verified by imaging at first adaptive optics light on next-generation (30 m) telescopes. Based on a preliminary assessment of the sample, “planetary” companions (i.e., below the deuterium-burning limit) are divided into “genuine planets,” formed in their disks by core accretion, and VLM brown dwarfs, which form like stars. We discuss techniques for expanding the sample, which include taking account of the peculiar “anomaly-dominated” morphology of the KMT-2016-BLG-2605 light curve.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗