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At least 19 records

Correlated peak relative light intensity and peak current in triggered lightning subsequent return strokes

The correlation between peak relative light intensity L(R) and stroke peak current I(R) is examined for 39 subsequent return strokes in two triggered lightning flashes. One flash contained 19 strokes and the other 20 strokes for which direct measurements were available of the return stroke peak current at ground. Peak currents ranged from 1.6 to 21 kA. The measurements of peak relative light intensity were obtained from photographic streak recordings using calibrated film and microsecond resolution. Correlations, significant at better than the 0.1 percent level, were found for several functional relationships. Although a relation between L(R) and I(R) is evident in these data, none of the analytical relations considered is clearly favored. The correlation between L(R) and the maximum rate of current rise is also examined, but less correlation than between L(R) and I(R) is found. In addition, the peak relative intensity near ground is evaluated for 22 dart leaders, and a mean ratio of peak dart leader to peak return stroke relative light intensity was found to be 0.1 with a range of 0.02-0.23. Using two different methods, the peak current near ground in these dart leaders is estimated to range from 0.1 to 6 kA.

Idone, V. P.↗

A comparison with theory of peak to peak sound level for a model helicopter rotor generating blade slap at low tip speeds

Mini-tuft and smoke flow visualization techniques have been developed for the investigation of model helicopter rotor blade vortex interaction noise at low tip speeds. These techniques allow the parameters required for calculation of the blade vortex interaction noise using the Widnall/Wolf model to be determined. The measured acoustics are compared with the predicted acoustics for each test condition. Under the conditions tested it is determined that the dominating acoustic pulse results from the interaction of the blade with a vortex 1-1/4 revolutions old at an interaction angle of less than 8 deg. The Widnall/Wolf model predicts the peak sound pressure level within 3 dB for blade vortex separation distances greater than 1 semichord, but it generally over predicts the peak S.P.L. by over 10 dB for blade vortex separation distances of less than 1/4 semichord.

Fontana, R. R.↗

An Interesting Correlation Between the Peak Slope and Peak Value of a Sunspot Cycle

The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number (S) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.

W. Dean Pesnell↗

The long-term behavior of the main peak of the dayside ionosphere of Venus during solar cycle 21 and its implications on the effect of the solar cycle upon the electron temperature in the main peak region

Results are presented on the long-term behavior of the main peak electron density in the Venus ionosphere during the solar cycle 21, based on 104 radio occultation measurements of the vertical electron density profile in the dayside ionosphere of Venus carried out aboard the Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft (along with published data on 11 Venera 9-10 measurements). The equation representing the electron temperature at h = 140 km is presented. The results imply that the electron temperature at h = 140 km decreased by about 25 percent from solar maximum to solar minimum, compared to a decrease of 50-75 percent above 200 km found by Kliore and Mullen (1989).

Kliore, Arvydas J.↗

Impactor control of central peak and peak-ring formation

The relation between the depth and diameter of excavation for impacts typically is assumed to be proportional. Such an assumption is consistent with the constant aspect ratio (diameter:depth) observed for simple craters found in a wide range of planetary settings and crater-scaling laws derived from laboratory experiments. Although complex craters exhibit evidence for floor uplift and rim collapse of a transient profile, they are typically thought to resemble initially smaller, simple craters. At large scales, however, early-time processes consume a greater fraction of crater growth and the assumption of late-time equivalence of energy release as a point source becomes inappropriate. The authors propose instead that crater diameter, depth, and impactor penetration represent separable dependent variables that underscore the fundamental difference between impact and point-source explosion excavation processes. An important consequence of this perspective is that central pits, peaks, and rings may represent contrasting target responses to impactor penetration and could provide an important indicator of impactor dimensions.

Schultz, Peter H.↗

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

The Transition from Complex Crater to Peak-Ring Basin on the Moon: New Observations from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) Instrument

Impact craters on planetary bodies transition with increasing size from simple, to complex, to peak-ring basins and finally to multi-ring basins. Important to understanding the relationship between complex craters with central peaks and multi-ring basins is the analysis of protobasins (exhibiting a rim crest and interior ring plus a central peak) and peak-ring basins (exhibiting a rim crest and an interior ring). New data have permitted improved portrayal and classification of these transitional features on the Moon. We used new 128 pixel/degree gridded topographic data from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, combined with image mosaics, to conduct a survey of craters >50 km in diameter on the Moon and to update the existing catalogs of lunar peak-ring basins and protobasins. Our updated catalog includes 17 peak-ring basins (rim-crest diameters range from 207 km to 582 km, geometric mean = 343 km) and 3 protobasins (137-170 km, geometric mean = 157 km). Several basins inferred to be multi-ring basins in prior studies (Apollo, Moscoviense, Grimaldi, Freundlich-Sharonov, Coulomb-Sarton, and Korolev) are now classified as peak-ring basins due to their similarities with lunar peak-ring basin morphologies and absence of definitive topographic ring structures greater than two in number. We also include in our catalog 23 craters exhibiting small ring-like clusters of peaks (50-205 km, geometric mean = 81 km); one (Humboldt) exhibits a rim-crest diameter and an interior morphology that may be uniquely transitional to the process of forming peak rings. Comparisons of the predictions of models for the formation of peak-ring basins with the characteristics of the new basin catalog for the Moon suggest that formation and modification of an interior melt cavity and nonlinear scaling of impact melt volume with crater diameter provide important controls on the development of peak rings. In particular, a power-law model of growth of an interior melt cavity with increasing crater diameter is consistent with power-law fits to the peak-ring basin data for the Moon and Mercury. We suggest that the relationship between the depth of melting and depth of the transient cavity offers a plausible control on the onset diameter and subsequent development of peak-ring basins and also multi-ring basins, which is consistent with both planetary gravitational acceleration and mean impact velocity being important in determining the onset of basin morphological forms on the terrestrial planets.

Baker, David M. H.↗

The effect of intermittent standing or walking during head down tilt bedrest on peak O2 consumption

The cardiovascular aspect of bedrest deconditioning is manifested by decreases in peak O2 uptake (VO(sub 2 peak)) during minimal exercise. The effect of intermittent standing (+G(z)) or walking (+G(z)W) during 4 days of 7 degree Head Down Tilt bedrest (HDT) on VO(sub 2 peak) was evaluated. Methods: Five protocols were performed by eight male subjects; control (C) consisting of complete bedrest, and 15 minute periods to total 2 or 4 hours daily of standing (+G(z)(exp 2) and +G(z)(exp 4) respectively) or walking at 3.0 MPH (+G(z)W2 and +G(z)W4 respectively). Subjects performed VO(sub 2 peak) tests prior to and on the final day of HDT. VO(sub 2 peak) was determined using open circuit indirect calorimetry during supine leg cycling ergometry. After a 5 minute warmup, three 2 minute incremental loads of 33 W previously determined to elicit VO(sub 2 peak) were given and the subject cycled to volitional fatigue. Results: The C protocol VO(sub 2 peak) decreased by 16 percent (2.71 plus or minus 0.16 to 2.27 plus or minus 0.14 L/min) and 11 percent in +G(z)(exp 4) (2.72 plus or minus 0.15 to 2.43 plus or minus 0.14 L/min). With +G(z)W2 VO(sub 2 peak) decreased by 9 percent (2.71 plus or minus 0.17 to 2.46 plus or minus 0.14 L/min) and with +G(z)W4, VO(sub 2 peak) decreased by 10 percent (2.71 plus or minus 0.14 to 2.43 plus or minus 0.14 L/min). VO(sub 2 peak) in all protocols decreased with HDT (P less than 0.05). The decrease in C VO(sub 2 peak) was significantly greater (P less than 0.05) than the decreases in either +G(z) or +G(z)W protocols. Conclusion: The deconditioning that occurs after only 4 days of HDT was demonstrated by decreases in VO(sub 2 peak). Intermittent +G(z) or +G(z)W attenuated, but did not prevent, the decrease in VO(sub 2 peak) with HDT.

Ertl, A. C.↗

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.

Dreher, Joseph↗

Double-peaked ion spectra in the lobe plasma - Evidence for massive ions

Suprathermal Ion Detector Experiments (SIDE) have suggested the presence of a significant secondary peak in the ion distribution function during geomagnetic active periods when the moon is within the lobe plasma. It is observed that: (1) an increase in the primary peak bulk velocity is reflected in an increase in secondary peak bulk velocity, (2) both spectra are narrow in the instrument-look direction (assumed parallel to the flow) and peak temperatures are usually less than about 10 eV, (3) periods for double peak observations comprise about 10% of the total lobe plasma observation time, (4) assuming that peaks are caused by protons, and without correcting for lunar surface potential, primary peak bulk velocity is between about 70 and 160 km/s, and secondary peak bulk velocity is between about 360 and 840 km/s, and (5) assuming equal flow velocities outside the influence of the lunar surface potential are equal for the ions of the two peaks, and making corrections for this potential, secondary peak ions are consistent with N(+) or O(+), and the ratio of O(+) to proton number densities is usually less than about 2 x 10 to the -3rd.

Hardy, D. A.↗

Initial Circulation and Peak Vorticity Behavior of Vortices Shed from Airfoil Vortex Generators

An extensive parametric study of vortices shed from airfoil vortex generators has been conducted to determine the dependence of initial vortex circulation and peak vorticity on elements of the airfoil geometry and impinging flow conditions. These elements include the airfoil angle of attack, chord length, span, aspect ratio, local boundary layer thickness, and free stream Mach number. In addition, the influence of airfoil-to-airfoil spacing on the circulation and peak vorticity has been examined for pairs of co-rotating and counter-rotating vortices. The vortex generators were symmetric airfoils having a NACA-0012 cross-sectional profile. These airfoils were mounted either in isolation, or in pairs, on the surface of a straight pipe. The turbulent boundary layer thickness to pipe radius ratio was about 17 percent. The circulation and peak vorticity data were derived from cross-plane velocity measurements acquired with a seven-hole probe at one chord-length downstream of the airfoil trailing edge location. The circulation is observed to be proportional to the free-stream Mach number, the angle-of-attack, and the span-to-boundary layer thickness ratio. With these parameters held constant, the circulation is observed to fall off in monotonic fashion with increasing airfoil aspect ratio. The peak vorticity is also observed to be proportional to the free-stream Mach number, the airfoil angle-of-attack, and the span-to-boundary layer thickness ratio. Unlike circulation, however, the peak vorticity is observed to increase with increasing aspect ratio, reaching a peak value at an aspect ratio of about 2.0 before falling off again at higher values of aspect ratio. Co-rotating vortices shed from closely spaced pairs of airfoils have values of circulation and peak vorticity under those values found for vortices shed from isolated airfoils of the same geometry. Conversely, counter-rotating vortices show enhanced values of circulation and peak vorticity when compared to values obtained in isolation. The circulation may be accurately modeled with an expression based on Prandtl's relationship between finite airfoil circulation and airfoil geometry. A correlation for the peak vorticity has been derived from a conservation relationship equating the moment at the airfoil tip to the rate of angular momentum production of the shed vortex, modeled as a Lamb (ideal viscous) vortex. This technique provides excellent qualitative agreement to the observed behavior of peak vorticity for low aspect ratio airfoils typically used as vortex generators.

Wendt, Bruce J.↗

Estimation of cardiac reserve by peak power: validation and initial application of a simplified index

OBJECTIVES: To validate a simplified estimate of peak power (SPP) against true (invasively measured) peak instantaneous power (TPP), to assess the feasibility of measuring SPP during exercise and to correlate this with functional capacity. DESIGN: Development of a simplified method of measurement and observational study. SETTING: Tertiary referral centre for cardiothoracic disease. SUBJECTS: For validation of SPP with TPP, seven normal dogs and four dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy were studied. To assess feasibility and clinical significance in humans, 40 subjects were studied (26 patients; 14 normal controls). METHODS: In the animal validation study, TPP was derived from ascending aortic pressure and flow probe, and from Doppler measurements of flow. SPP, calculated using the different flow measures, was compared with peak instantaneous power under different loading conditions. For the assessment in humans, SPP was measured at rest and during maximum exercise. Peak aortic flow was measured with transthoracic continuous wave Doppler, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures were derived from brachial sphygmomanometry. The difference between exercise and rest simplified peak power (Delta SPP) was compared with maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2)max), measured from expired gas analysis. RESULTS: SPP estimates using peak flow measures correlated well with true peak instantaneous power (r = 0.89 to 0.97), despite marked changes in systemic pressure and flow induced by manipulation of loading conditions. In the human study, VO(2)max correlated with Delta SPP (r = 0.78) better than Delta ejection fraction (r = 0.18) and Delta rate-pressure product (r = 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: The simple product of mean arterial pressure and peak aortic flow (simplified peak power, SPP) correlates with peak instantaneous power over a range of loading conditions in dogs. In humans, it can be estimated during exercise echocardiography, and correlates with maximum oxygen uptake better than ejection fraction or rate-pressure product.

Non-NASA Center↗

GRAIL Gravity Observations of the Transition from Complex Crater to Peak-Ring Basin on the Moon: Implications for Crustal Structure and Impact Basin Formation

High-resolution gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission provide the opportunity to analyze the detailed gravity and crustal structure of impact features in the morphological transition from complex craters to peak-ring basins on the Moon. We calculate average radial profiles for free-air anomalies and Bouguer anomalies for peak-ring basins, proto-basins, and the largest complex craters. Complex craters and proto-basins have free-air anomalies that are positively correlated with surface topography, unlike the prominent lunar mascons (positive free-air anomalies in areas of low elevation) associated with large basins. The Bouguer gravity anomaly profiles of complex craters are highly irregular, with central positive anomalies that are generally absent or not clearly tied to interior morphology. In contrast, gravity profiles for peak-ring basins (approx. 200 km to 580 km) are much more regular and are highly correlated with surface morphology. A central positive Bouguer anomaly is confined within the peak ring and a negative Bouguer anomaly annulus extends from the edge of the positive anomaly outward to about the rim crest. A number of degraded basins lacking interior peak rings have diameters and gravity patterns similar to those of well-preserved peak-ring basins. If these structures represent degraded peak-ring basins, the number of peak-ring basins on the Moon would increase by more than a factor of two to 34. The gravity anomalies within basins are interpreted to be due to uplift of the mantle confined within the peak ring and an annulus of thickened crust between the peak ring and rim crest. We hypothesize that mantle uplift is influenced by interaction between the transient cavity and the mantle. Further, mascon formation is generally disconnected from the number of basin rings formed and occurs over a wide range of basin sizes. These observations have important implications for models of basin and mascon formation on the Moon and other planetary bodies.

Baker, David M. H.↗

Comparison of Multisine Peak Factor Minimization Algorithms for Aircraft System Identification

Two phase-optimized multisine peak factor minimization algorithms are presented and evaluated. The first algorithm minimizes peak factor by iteratively clipping the peaks of generated multisine signals. The second algorithm optimizes peak factor indirectly through minimization of an approximation of the infinity norm of the multisine. Algorithm performance was evaluated as a function of different signal properties, including the number of harmonics, harmonic spacing, and number of snow harmonics (extra harmonics included for further reduction of the peak factor). The two algorithms are compared against results obtained by minimizing peak factor directly using a simplex algorithm, which has been a common approach when designing phase-optimized multisines for system identification flight tests. Sample results show that the clipping and infinity norm algorithms produced multisine signals with comparable peak factors that were lower than that of the simplex algorithm. However, the clipping algorithm runs an order of magnitude faster than the other two algorithms, which also makes it practical to repeat the algorithm multiple times to achieve even lower peak factors.

system identification↗

Comparison of Multisine Peak Factor Minimization Algorithms for Aircraft System Identification(Presentation)

Two phase-optimized multisine peak factor minimization algorithms are presented and evaluated. The first algorithm minimizes peak factor by iteratively clipping the peaks of generated multisine signals. The second algorithm optimizes peak factor indirectly through minimization of an approximation of the infinity norm of the multisine. Algorithm performance was evaluated as a function of different signal properties, including the number of harmonics, harmonic spacing, and number of snow harmonics (extra harmonics included for further reduction of the peak factor). The two algorithms are compared against results obtained by minimizing peak factor directly using a simplex algorithm, which has been a common approach when designing phase-optimized multisines for system identification flight tests. Sample results show that the clipping and infinity norm algorithms produced multisine signals with comparable peak factors that were lower than that of the simplex algorithm. However, the clipping algorithm runs an order of magnitude faster than the other two algorithms, which also makes it practical to repeat the algorithm multiple times to achieve even lower peak factors.

flight test↗

Extended Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Analyses at the Shuttle Landing Facility: Phase II Results

This report describes the results from Phase II of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A seven year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. A PC-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) tool was created to display the data quickly.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗