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Mercury contamination in the atmosphere, snow and marine mammals of the Artic has been a continuing environmental concern and the focus of many investigations.
The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.
Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.
The goal of this study is to computationally determine the potential distribution patterns of diffusion-driven methane hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained marine sediments. Diffusion of dissolved methane in marine gas hydrate systems has been proposed as a potential transport mechanism through which large concentrations of hydrate can preferentially accumulate in coarse-grained sediments over geologic time. Using one-dimensional compositional reservoir simulations, we examine hydrate distribution patterns at the scale of individual sand layers (1 to 20 m thick) that are deposited between microbially active fine-grained material buried through the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ). We then extrapolate to two- dimensional and basin-scale three-dimensional simulations, where we model dipping sands and multilayered systems. We find that properties of a sand layer including pore size distribution, layer thickness, dip, and proximity to other layers in multilayered systems all exert control on diffusive methane fluxes toward and within a sand, which in turn impact the distribution of hydrate throughout a sand unit. In all of these simulations, we incorporate data on physical properties and sand layer geometries from the Terrebonne Basin gas hydrate system in the Gulf of Mexico. We demonstrate that diffusion can generate high hydrate saturations (upward of 90%) at the edges of thin sands at shallow depths within the GHSZ, but that it is ineffective at producing high hydrate saturations throughout thick (greater than 10 m) sands buried deep within the GHSZ. As a result, we find that hydrate in fine-grained material can preserve high hydrate saturations in nearby thin sands with burial.
Snow in the Arctic and sub-Arctic is highly variable at fine scales, with deep drifts and shallow scoured areas creating a complex pattern of snow on the landscape. This fine-scale variation in snow is driven primarily by landscape and vegetation properties. Some landscape features, such as river beds, will rapidly fill in with snow during the wintertime due to high winds, while shrubs will trap blowing snow, resulting in drifts. Meanwhile, snow will blow off of exposed areas, resulting in abnormally shallow snow. These complex interactions between wind, vegetation, and terrain are difficult to represent well with physically-based models, but machine learning techniques have shown promise in the past. Here, we propose a hybrid modeling approach, where we use machine learning derived snow pattern maps to inform SnowModel, a physically-based snow process model. We develop and test this technique at the Teller 27 Seward Peninsula NGEE-Arctic study site. This dataset includes 5 *.nc files of model inputs and outputs plus one user guide (*.pdf). We present the data we use to drive SnowModel (vegetation type, digital elevation model), the snow pattern maps used to inform SnowModel (Standardized Depth Values maps, Machine Learning Snow Distribution Pattern), and our machine learning, SnowModel, and Hybrid snow depth and snow water equivalent results. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
Background: Genome mining tools have enabled us to predict biosynthetic gene clusters that might encode compounds with valuable functions for industrial and medical applications. With the continuously increasing number of genomes sequenced, we are confronted with an overwhelming number of predicted clusters. In order to guide the effective prioritization of biosynthetic gene clusters towards finding the most promising compounds, knowledge about diversity, phylogenetic relationships and distribution patterns of biosynthetic gene clusters is necessary. Results: Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the model actinobacterial genus Amycolatopsis and its potential for the production of secondary metabolites. A phylogenetic characterization, together with a pan-genome analysis showed that within this highly diverse genus, four major lineages could be distinguished which differed in their potential to produce secondary metabolites. Furthermore, we were able to distinguish gene cluster families whose distribution correlated with phylogeny, indicating that vertical gene transfer plays a major role in the evolution of secondary metabolite gene clusters. Still, the vast majority of the diverse biosynthetic gene clusters were derived from clusters unique to the genus, and also unique in comparison to a database of known compounds. Our study on the locations of biosynthetic gene clusters in the genomes of Amycolatopsis’ strains showed that clusters acquired by horizontal gene transfer tend to be incorporated into non-conserved regions of the genome thereby allowing us to distinguish core and hypervariable regions in Amycolatopsis genomes. Conclusions: Using a comparative genomics approach, it was possible to determine the potential of the genus Amycolatopsis to produce a huge diversity of secondary metabolites. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that horizontal and vertical gene transfer play an important role in the acquisition and maintenance of valuable secondary metabolites. Our results cast light on the interconnections between secondary metabolite gene clusters and provide a way to prioritize biosynthetic pathways in the search and discovery of novel compounds.
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Indonesia is the meeting zone between three world main plates: Eurasian Plate, Pacific Plate, and Indo – Australia Plate. Therefore, Indonesia has a high seismicity degree. Sulawesi is one of whose high seismicity level. The earthquake centre lies in fault zone so the earthquake data gives tectonic visualization in a certain place. This research purpose is to identify Sulawesi tectonic model by using earthquake data from 1993 to 2012. Data used in this research is the earthquake data which consist of: the origin time, the epicenter coordinate, the depth, the magnitude and the fault parameter (strike, dip and slip). The result of research shows that there are a lot of active structures as a reason of the earthquake in Sulawesi. The active structures are Walannae Fault, Lawanopo Fault, Matano Fault, Palu – Koro Fault, Batui Fault and Moluccas Sea Double Subduction. The focal mechanism also shows that Walannae Fault, Batui Fault and Moluccas Sea Double Subduction are kind of reverse fault. While Lawanopo Fault, Matano Fault and Palu – Koro Fault are kind of strike slip fault.
There is provided a system, apparatus and methods for providing a laser beam to borehole surface in a predetermined and energy deposition profile. The predetermined energy deposition profiles may be uniform or tailored to specific downhole applications. Optic assemblies for obtaining these predetermined energy deposition profiles are further provided.
Abstract. The spatial distribution of snow plays a vital role in sub-Arctic and Arctic climate, hydrology, and ecology due to its fundamental influence on the water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation, and carbon flux. However, the spatial distribution of snow is not well understood, and therefore, it is not well modeled, which can lead to substantial uncertainties in snow cover representations. To capture key hydro-ecological controls on snow spatial distribution, we carried out intensive field studies over multiple years for two small (2017–2019; ∼ 2.5 km2) sub-Arctic study sites located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using an intensive suite of field observations (> 22 000 data points), we developed simple models of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) using factors such as topographic characteristics, vegetation characteristics based on greenness (normalized different vegetation index, NDVI), and a simple metric for approximating winds. The most successful model was random forest, using both study sites and all years, which was able to accurately capture the complexity and variability of snow characteristics across the sites. Approximately 86 % of the SWE distribution could be accounted for, on average, by the random forest model at the study sites. Factors that impacted year-to-year snow distribution included NDVI, elevation, and a metric to represent coarse microtopography (topographic position index, TPI), while slope, wind, and fine microtopography factors were less important. The characterization of the SWE spatial distribution patterns will be used to validate and improve snow distribution modeling in the Department of Energy's Earth system model and for improved understanding of hydrology, topography, and vegetation dynamics in the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions of the globe.
Abstract Severe convection occurring in high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments is a common cool-season threat in the southeastern United States. Previous studies of HSLC convection document the increased operational challenges that these environments present compared to their high-CAPE counterparts, corresponding to higher false-alarm ratios and lower probability of detection for severe watches and warnings. These environments can exhibit rapid destabilization in the hours prior to convection, sometimes associated with the release of potential instability. Here, we use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to objectively identify environmental patterns accompanying HSLC cool-season severe events and associate them with variations in severe weather frequency and distribution. Large-scale patterns exhibit modest variation within the HSLC subclass, featuring strong surface cyclones accompanied by vigorous upper-tropospheric troughs and northward-extending regions of instability, consistent with prior studies. In most patterns, severe weather occurs immediately ahead of a cold front. Other convective ingredients, such as lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear, near-surface equivalent potential temperature (θ e ) advection, and the release of potential instability, varied more significantly across patterns. No single variable used to train SOMs consistently demonstrated differences in the distribution of severe weather occurrence across patterns. Comparison of SOMs based on upper and lower quartiles of severe occurrence demonstrated that the release of potential instability was most consistently associated with higher-impact events in comparison to other convective ingredients. Overall, we find that previously developed HSLC composite parameters reasonably identify high-impact HSLC events. Significance Statement Even when atmospheric instability is not optimal for severe convective storms, in some situations they can still occur, presenting increased challenges to forecasters. These marginal environments may occur at night or during the cool season, when people are less attuned to severe weather threats. Here, we use a sorting algorithm to classify different weather patterns accompanying such storms, and we distinguish which specific patterns and weather system features are most strongly associated with severe storms. Our goals are to increase situational awareness for forecasters and to improve understanding of the processes leading to severe convection in marginal environments.
This letter develops a flexible machine learning detection method for cyberattacks in distribution systems considering spatiotemporal patterns. Spatiotemporal patterns are recognized by the graph Laplacian based on system-wide measurements. A flexible Bayes classifier (BC) is used to train spatiotemporal patterns which could be violated when cyberattacks occur. Cyberattacks are detected by using flexible BCs online. The effectiveness of the developed method is demonstrated through standard IEEE 13- and 123-node test feeders.
A ceramic matrix composite article and a process of fabricating a ceramic matrix composite are disclosed. The ceramic matrix composite article includes a matrix distribution pattern formed by a manifold and ceramic matrix composite plies laid up on the matrix distribution pattern, includes the manifold, or a combination thereof. The manifold includes one or more matrix distribution channels operably connected to a delivery interface, the delivery interface configured for providing matrix material to one or more of the ceramic matrix composite plies. The process includes providing the manifold, forming the matrix distribution pattern by transporting the matrix material through the manifold, and contacting the ceramic matrix composite plies with the matrix material.
A ceramic matrix composite article and a process of fabricating a ceramic matrix composite are disclosed. The ceramic matrix composite article includes a matrix distribution pattern formed by a manifold and ceramic matrix composite plies laid up on the matrix distribution pattern, includes the manifold, or a combination thereof. The manifold includes one or more matrix distribution channels operably connected to a delivery interface, the delivery interface configured for providing matrix material to one or more of the ceramic matrix composite plies. The process includes providing the manifold, forming the matrix distribution pattern by transporting the matrix material through the manifold, and contacting the ceramic matrix composite plies with the matrix material.