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At least 19 records

Relevance of the American Statistical Society's Warning on P-Values for Conjunction Assessment

On March 7, 2016, the American Statistical Association (ASA) issued an online editorial paper on the "context, process, and purpose of p-values." According to the paper, "the statement articulates in non-technical terms a few select principles that could improve the conductor interpretation of quantitative science, according to widespread consensus in the statistical community." This "consensus" statement was accompanied by 21 "commentaries" expressing a diversity of opinions among the panel of experts ASA convened. In the present work, we express our view that the ASA p-value warning has relevance to the space object Conjunction Assessment (CA) community.

p-values↗

Gender Consideration in Experiment Design for Airbrake in Prebreathe

If gender is a confounder of the decompression sickness (DCS) or venous gas emboli (VGE) outcomes of a proposed air break in oxygen prebreathe (PB) project, then decisions about the final experiment design must be made. We evaluated if the incidence of DCS and VGE from tests in altitude chambers over 20 years were different between men and women after resting and exercise prebreathe protocols. Nitrogen washout during PB is our primary risk mitigation strategy to prevent subsequent DCS and VGE in subjects. Bubbles in the pulmonary artery (venous blood) were detected from the precordial position using Doppler ultrasound bubble detectors. The subjects were monitored for VGE for four min at about 15 min intervals for the duration of the altitude exposure, with maximum bubble grade assigned a Spencer Grade of IV. There was no difference in DCS incidence between men and women in either PB protocol. The incidence of VGE and Grade IV VGE is statistically lower in women compared to men after resting PB. Even when 10 tests were compared with Mantel-Haenszel 2 where both men (n = 168) and women (n = 92) appeared, the p-value for VGE incidence was still significant at 0.03. The incidence of VGE and Grade IV VGE is not statistically lower in women compared to men after exercise PB. Even when six tests were compared with Mantel-Haenszel x2 where both men (n = 165) and women (n = 49) appeared, the p-value for VGE incidence was still not significant at 0.90. Our goal is to understand the risk of brief air breaks during PB without other confounding variables invalidating our conclusions. The cost to additionally account for the confounding role of gender on VGE outcome after resting PB is judged excessive. Our decision is to only evaluate air breaks in the exercise PB protocol. So there is no restriction to recruiting women as test subjects.

Conkin, Johnny↗

Initial blood storage experiment

The design of the Initial Blood Storage Experiment (IBSE) was based upon a carefully controlled comparison between identical sets of human blood cell suspensions - red cells, white cell, and platelets - one set of which was transported aboard the Columbia on a 6 day 11 hour mission, and the other held on the ground. Both sets were carried inside stainless steel dewars within specially fabricated flight hardware. Individual bags of cell suspensions were randomly assigned with respect to ground vs orbit status, dewar chamber, and specific location within the dewar. To foster optimal preservation, each cell type was held under specific optimal conditions of pH, ionic strength, solute concentration, gas tension, and temperature. An added variable in this initial experiment was provided by the use of three different polymer/plasticizer formulations for the sealed bags which held the blood cells. At termination of the experiment, aliquots of the suspensions, identified only by code, were distributed to be assayed. Assays were selected to constitute a broad survey of cellular properties and thereby maximize the chances of detection of gravitational effects. A total of 74 different outcome measurements were reported for statistical analysis. When the measurements were completed, the results were entered into the IBSE data base, at which time the data were matched with the original blood bag numbers to determine their status with respect to polymer/plasticizer type, orbit status (orbit or ground), and storage position within the experimental hardware. The data were studied by analysis of variance. Initially, type of bag and orbital status were main factors; later more detailed analyses were made on specific issues such as position in the hardware and specific plastic. If the analysis of variance indicated a statistical significance at the 5 percent level the corresponding p-value was reported.

Surgenor, Douglas MACN.↗

NASA Rodent Foodbar: Long Term Effects in Swiss Webster Mice

Swiss Webster male and female mice (150 of each) were fed NASA Rodent Foodbar for more than 110 days to test the diet's nutritional adequacy for use in future long-term studies aboard the International Space Station. Mice were grouped three to a cage (one cage = one sample) and cages were assigned to either Foodbar or Purina Chow #5001 (control) diet groups. Body weights, food intake, and water intake were obtained throughout the study. There were no significant differences in body weights between male Foodbar fed and Chow fed males (p=0.58), and at 15 weeks into the female mouse study there appear to be no significant body weight differences. Both male and female Foodbar fed groups consumed more food and less water than their Chow controls, both factors thought to be attributable to the high moisture content of the Foodbars (26% versus 10% for Chow). All differences in gross food and water consumption had p-values of less than 0.01. When food and water intake were adjusted for the moisture content in the food, both male and female Foodbar fed animals consumed less food, but still had a lower water intake rate than their controls. (p is less than 0.01). Preliminary analysis on blood samples from male and female halfway point dissections suggests differences in glucose and fat metabolism. In both male and female Foodbar fed animals, blood glucose values were significantly lower (p is less than 0.01) but there were no significant differences in cholesterol levels (p=0.51). In Foodbar fed females, triglycerides were significantly higher (p is less than 0.01). These data suggest that Foodbars allow for normal growth in Swiss Webster mice, but affect some blood chemistry parameters.

Santiago, D. L.↗

Simple Math is Enough: Two Examples of Inferring Functional Associations from Genomic Data

Non-random features in the genomic data are usually biologically meaningful. The key is to choose the feature well. Having a p-value based score prioritizes the findings. If two proteins share a unusually large number of common interaction partners, they tend to be involved in the same biological process. We used this finding to predict the functions of 81 un-annotated proteins in yeast.

Liang, Shoudan↗

Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows as Probes of Environment and Blast Wave Physics. II. The Distribution of rho and Structure of the Circumburst Medium

We constrain blast wave parameters and the circumburst media ofa subsample of 10 BeppoSAX gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). For this sample we derive the values of the injected electron energy distribution index, p, and the density structure index of the circumburst medium, k, from simultaneous spectral fits to their X-ray, optical, and NIR afterglow data. The spectral fits have been done in count space and include the effects ofmetallicity, and are compared with the previously reported optical and X-ray temporal behavior. Using the blast wave model and some assumptions which include on-axis viewing and standard jet structure, constant blast wave energy, and no evolution of the microphysical parameters, we find a mean value ofp for the sample as a whole of 9.... oa -0.003.0" 2 a_ statistical analysis of the distribution demonstrates that the p-values in this sample are inconsistent with a single universal value forp at the 3 _ level or greater, which has significant implications for particle acceleration models. This approach provides us with a measured distribution ofcircumburst density structures rather than considering only the cases of k ----0 (homogeneous) and k - 2 (windlike). We find five GRBs for which k can be well constrained, and in four of these cases the circumburst medium is clearly windlike. The fifth source has a value of 0 < k < 1, consistent with a homogeneous circumburst medium.

Starling, R. L. C.↗

High Resolution ECG for Evaluation of Heart Function During Exposure to Subacute Hypobaric Hypoxia

High altitude climbing presents a wide spectrum of health risks, including exposure to hypobaric hypoxia. Risks are also typically exacerbated by the difficulty in appropriately monitoring for early signs of organ dysfunction in remote areas. We investigated whether high resolution advanced ECG analysis might be helpful as a non-invasive and easy-to-use tool (e.g., instead of Doppler echocardiography) for evaluating early signs of heart overload in hypobaric hypoxia. Nine non-acclimatized healthy trained alpine rescuers (age 43.7 plus or minus 7.3 years) climbed in four days to the altitude of 4,200 m on Mount Ararat. Five-minute high-resolution 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded (Cardiosoft) in each subject at rest in the supine position on different days but at the same time of day at four different altitudes: 400 m (reference altitude), 1,700 m, 3,200 m and 4,200 m. Changes in conventional and advanced resting ECG parameters, including in beat-to-beat QT and RR variability, waveform complexity, signal-averaged, high-frequency and spatial/spatiotemporal ECG was estimated by calculation of the regression coefficients in independent linear regression models. A p-value of less than 0.05 was adopted as statistically significant. As expected, the RR interval and its variability both decreased with increasing altitude, with trends k = -96 ms/1000 m with p = 0.000 and k = -9 ms/1000 m with p = 0.001, respectively. Significant changes were found in P-wave amplitude, which nearly doubled from the lowest to the highest altitude (k = 41.6 microvolt/1000 m with p = 0.000), and nearly significant changes in P-wave duration (k = 2.9 ms/1000 m with p = 0.059). Changes were less significant or non-significant in other studied parameters including those of waveform complexity, signal-averaged, high-frequency and spatial/spatiotemporal ECG. High resolution ECG analysis, particularly of the P wave, shows promise as a tool for monitoring early changes in heart function due to exposure to high altitude.

Zupet, Petra↗

High Resolution ECG for Evaluation of QT Interval Variability during Exposure to Acute Hypoxia

Ventricular repolarization instability as quantified by the index of QT interval variability (QTVI) is one of the best predictors for risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Because it is difficult to appropriately monitor early signs of organ dysfunction at high altitude, we investigated whether high resolution advanced ECG (HR-ECG) analysis might be helpful as a non-invasive and easy-to-use tool for evaluating the risk of cardiac arrhythmias during exposure to acute hypoxia. 19 non-acclimatized healthy trained alpinists (age 37, 8 plus or minus 4,7 years) participated in the study. Five-minute high-resolution 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded (Cardiosoft) in each subject at rest in the supine position breathing room air and then after breathing 12.5% oxygen for 30 min. For beat-to-beat RR and QT variability, the program of Starc was utilized to derive standard time domain measures such as root mean square of the successive interval difference (rMSSD) of RRV and QTV, the corrected QT interval (QTc) and the QTVI in lead II. Changes were evaluated with paired-samples t-test with p-values less than 0.05 considered statistically significant. As expected, the RR interval and its variability both decreased with increasing altitude, with p = 0.000 and p = 0.005, respectively. Significant increases were found in both the rMSSDQT and the QTVI in lead II, with p = 0.002 and p = 0.003, respectively. There was no change in QTc interval length (p = non significant). QT variability parameters may be useful for evaluating changes in ventricular repolarization caused by hypoxia. These changes might be driven by increases in sympathetic nervous system activity at ventricular level.

Zupet, P.↗

SCHIP: Statistics for Chromosome Interphase Positioning Based on Interchange Data

he position of chromosomes in the interphase nucleus is believed to be associated with a number of biological processes. Here, we present a web-based application that helps analyze the relative position of chromosomes during interphase in human cells, based on observed radiogenic chromosome aberrations. The inputs of the program are a table of yields of pairwise chromosome interchanges and a proposed chromosome geometric cluster. Each can either be uploaded or selected from provided datasets. The main outputs are P-values for the proposed chromosome clusters. SCHIP is designed to be used by a number of scientific communities interested in nuclear architecture, including cancer and cell biologists, radiation biologists and mathematical/computational biologists.

Vives, Sergi↗

Radio-Adaptive Responses of Mouse Myocardiocytes

One of the most significant occupational hazards to an astronaut is the frequent exposure to radiation. Commonly associated with increased risk for cancer related morbidity and mortality, radiation is also known to increase the risk for cardiovascular related disorders including: pericarditis, hypertension, and heart failure. It is believed that these radiation-induced disorders are a result of abnormal tissue remodeling. It is unknown whether radiation exposure promotes remodeling through fibrotic changes alone or in combination with programmed cell death. Furthermore, it is not known whether it is possible to mitigate the hazardous effects of radiation exposure. As such, we assessed the expression and mechanisms of radiation-induced tissue remodeling and potential radio-adaptive responses of p53-mediated apoptosis and fibrosis pathways along with markers for oxidative stress and inflammation in mice myocardium. 7 week old, male, C57Bl/6 mice were exposed to 6Gy (H) or 5cGy followed 24hr later with 6Gy (LH) Cs-137 gamma radiation. Mice were sacrificed and their hearts extirpated 4, 24, or 72hr after final irradiation. Real Time - Polymerase Chain Reaction was used to evaluate target genes. Pro-apoptotic genes Bad and Bax, pro-cell survival genes Bcl2 and Bcl2l2, fibrosis gene Vegfa, and oxidative stress genes Sod2 and GPx4 showed a reduced fold regulation change (Bad,-6.18; Bax,-6.94; Bcl2,-5.09; Bcl2l2,-4.03; Vegfa, -11.84; Sod2,-5.97; GPx4*,-28.72; * = Bonferroni adjusted p-value . 0.003) 4hr after H, but not after 4hr LH when compared to control. Other p53-mediated apoptosis genes Casp3, Casp9, Trp53, and Myc exhibited down-regulation but did not achieve a notable level of significance 4hr after H. 24hr after H, genetic down-regulation was no longer present compared to 24hr control. These data suggest a general reduction in genetic expression 4hrs after a high dose of gamma radiation. However, pre-exposure to 5cGy gamma radiation appears to facilitate a radio-adaptive response that mitigates the reduction in genetic expression associated with single high-dose gamma radiation exposure. This radio-adaptive response may serve as a potential countermeasure to radiation-induced myocardial remodeling and preserve the cardiovascular health of astronauts; thus, reducing the risks of human space exploration.

Seawright, John W.↗

Induction of a Radio-Adaptive Response by Low-dose Gamma Irradiation in Mouse Cardiomyocytes

One of the most significant occupational hazards to an astronaut is the frequent exposure to radiation. Commonly associated with increased risk for cancer related morbidity and mortality, radiation is also known to increase the risk for cardiovascular related disorders including: pericarditis, hypertension, and heart failure. It is believed that these radiation-induced disorders are a result of abnormal tissue remodeling. It is unknown whether radiation exposure promotes remodeling through fibrotic changes alone or in combination with programmed cell death. Furthermore, it is not known whether it is possible to mitigate the hazardous effects of radiation exposure. As such, we assessed the expression and mechanisms of radiation-induced tissue remodeling and potential radio-adaptive responses of p53-mediated apoptosis and fibrosis pathways along with markers for oxidative stress and inflammation in mice myocardium. 7 week old, male, C57Bl/6 mice were exposed to 6Gy (H) or 5cGy followed 24hr later with 6Gy (LH) 137Cs gamma radiation. Mice were sacrificed and their hearts extirpated 4, 24, or 72hr after final irradiation. Real Time - Polymerase Chain Reaction was used to evaluate target genes. Apoptotic genes Bad and Bax, pro-cell survival genes Bcl2 and Bcl2l2, fibrosis gene Vegfa, and oxidative stress genes Sod2 and GPx4 showed a reduced fold regulation change (Bad,-6.18; Bax,-6.94; Bcl2,-5.09; Bcl2l2,-4.03; Vegfa, -11.84; Sod2,-5.97; GPx4*,-28.72; * = Bonferroni adjusted p-value < or = 0.003) 4hr after H, but not after 4hr LH compared to control. Other p53-mediated apoptosis genes Casp3, Casp9, Trp53, and Myc exhibited down-regulation but did not achieve a notable level of significance 4hr after H. 24hr after H, genetic down-regulation was no longer present compared to 24hr control. These data suggest a general reduction in genetic expression 4hrs after a high dose of gamma radiation. However, pre-exposure to 5cGy gamma radiation appears to facilitate a radio-adaptive response that mitigates the reduction in genetic expression associated with single high-dose gamma radiation exposure. This radio-adaptive response may serve as a potential countermeasure to radiation-induced myocardial remodeling and preserve the cardiovascular health of astronauts; thus, reducing the risks of human space exploration.

Westby, Christian M.↗

A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, make possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented. Specifically shown here are the inner-plasmasphere RIMS measurements, radial fits to densities and temperatures for H(+), He(+), He(++), O(+), and O(+) and the error associated with these initial simple fits. Also shown are more subtle dependencies on the f10.7 P-value (see Richards et al. [1994]).

plasmasphere density↗

The Exoplanet Mass-Ratio Function From the MOA-II Survey: Discovery of a Break and Likely Peak at a Neptune Mass

We report the results of the statistical analysis of planetary signals discovered in MOA-II microlensing survey alert system events from 2007 to 2012. We determine the survey sensitivity as a function of planet star mass ratio, q, and projected planet star separation, s, in Einstein radius units. We find that the mass-ratio function is not a single power law, but has a change in slope at q approx.10(exp -4), corresponding to approx. 20 Stellar Mass for the median host-star mass of approx. 0.6 M. We find significant planetary signals in 23 of the 1474 alert events that are well-characterized by the MOA-II survey data alone. Data from other groups are used only to characterize planetary signals that have been identified in the MOA data alone. The distribution of mass ratios and separations of the planets found in our sample are well fit by a broken power-law model. We also combine this analysis with the previous analyses of Gould et al. and Cassan et al., bringing the total sample to 30 planets. The unbroken power-law model is disfavored with a p-value of 0.0022, which corresponds to a Bayes factor of 27 favoring the broken power-law model. These results imply that cold Neptunes are likely to be the most common type of planets beyond the snow line.

MOA-II microlensing survey alert↗

BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey - III. An Observed Link Between AGN Eddington Ratio and Narrow-Emission-Line Ratios

We investigate the observed relationship between black hole mass (M(sub BH)), bolometric luminosity (L(sub bol)) and Eddington ratio (lambda(sub Edd)) with optical emission-line ratios ([N II] lambda6583/Halpha, [S II]lambda-lamda6716, 6731/Halpha, [O I] lamda6300/Halpha, [O III] lamda5007/Hbeta, [Ne III] lamda3869/Hbeta and He II lamda4686/Hbeta) of hard X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGN) from the BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey. We show that the [N II] lamda6583/Halpha ratio exhibits a significant correlation with lamda(sub Edd) (R(sub Pear) = -0.44, p-value 3 x 10(exp. -13) sigma = 0.28 dex), and the correlation is not solely driven by M(sub BH) or L(sub bol). The observed correlation between [N II] lamda6583/Halpha ratio and M(sub BH) is stronger than the correlation with L(sub bol), but both are weaker than the lamda(sub Edd) correlation. This implies that the large-scale narrow lines of AGN host galaxies carry information about the accretion state of the AGN central engine. We propose that [N II] lamda6583/Halpha is a useful indicator of Eddington ratio with 0.6 dex of rms scatter, and that it can be used to measure lambda(sub Edd) and thus M(sub BH) from the measured L(sub bol), even for high-redshift obscured AGN. We briefly discuss possible physical mechanisms behind this correlation, such as the mass-metallicity relation, X-ray heating, and radiatively driven outflows.

black hole physics – galaxies: active – galaxi↗

Biomass Retrieval from L-Band Polarimetric UAVSAR Backscatter and PRISM Stereo Imagery

The forest above-ground biomass (AGB) and spatial distribution of vegetation elements have profound effects on the productivity and biodiversity of terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, we evaluated biomass estimation from L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data acquired by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) and the improvement of accuracy by adding canopy height information derived from stereo imagery acquired by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Panchromatic Remote Sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (PRISM) on-board the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS). Various models for prediction of forest biomass from UAVSAR data were investigated at pixel sizes of 1/4 ha (50 m x 50 m) and 1 ha. The variance inflation factor (VIF) was calculated for each of the explanatory variables in multivariable regression models to assess the multi-collinearity between explanatory variables. In addition, the t-and p-values were used to interpret the significance of the coefficients of each explanatory variables. The R(exp. 2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), bias and Akaike information criterion (AIC), and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and bootstrapping were used to validate models. At 1/4-ha scale, the R(exp. 2) and RMSE of biomass estimation from a model using a single track of polarimetric UAVSAR data were 0.59 and 52.08 Mg/ha. With canopy height from PRISM as additional independent variable, R(exp. 2) increased to 0.76 and RMSE decreased to 39.74 Mg/ha (28.24%). At 1-ha scale, the RMSE of biomass estimation based on UAVSAR data of a single track was 39.42 Mg/ha with a R(exp. 2) of 0.77. With the canopy height from PRISM, R(exp. 2) increased to 0.86 and RMSE decreased to 29.47 Mg/ha (20.18%). The models using UAVSAR data alone underestimated biomass at levels above approximately 150 Mg/ha showing the saturation phenomenon. Adding canopy height from PRISM stereo imagery significantly improved the biomass estimation and elevated the saturation level in estimating biomass. Combined use of UAVSAR data acquired from opposite directions (odd and even tracks) slightly improved the biomass estimation.Combined use of UAVSAR data acquired from opposite directions (odd and even tracks) slightly improved the biomass estimation at 1/4-ha scale, R(exp. 2) increased from 0.59 to 0.66 and RMSE reduced from 52.08 to 48.57 Mg/ha. Averaging multiple acquisitions of UAVSAR data from the same look azimuth direction did not improve biomass estimation. A biomass map derived from NASA's LVIS (Laser Vegetation Imaging System) wave-form data was used as a reference for evaluation of the biomass maps from these models. The study has also shown that the errors decreased when deciduous, evergreen, and mixed forests were modeled separately but the improvement was not significant

Zhang, Zhiyu↗

Oculomotor Assessment of Diurnal Arousal Variations

Saccadic and pupillary responses are reliable indices of arousal decrement (e.g. fatigue), that might be exploited to improve work schedule guidelines. In this study, we tested the sensitivity of a short 30-s oculomotor test to detect diurnal arousal variations. Twelve participants (5 females, 7 males, 37.7+-11.9 years) volunteered to be assessed every hour (66+-20 min) for three consecutive working days, during their regular office-hours. We used a fully automated testing system, the FIT 2000 Fitness Impairment Tester (Pulse Medical Instruments Inc., Rockville, MD, USA), to measure and record saccadic peak velocity, pupil diameter, and latency and amplitude of the pupillary light reflex. In addition, we collected subjective levels of arousal using the Stanford Sleepiness Scale, and body core temperature. We analyzed the data using a linear mixed model approach for longitudinal data. Both saccadic velocity and subjective alertness decreased over the course of a day, while body core temperature increased (all p-values.05). The data also weakly suggested an increase of the pupil diameter (p 07). The findings support the use of oculomotor indices in the assessment of arousal and fatigue in applied settings.

saccadic velocity↗

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique pattern of interaction with the visual environment. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as a piloting an aircraft, where activities with distinct visual signatures might be things like communicating, navigating, and monitoring. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these hypothetical activities. The method is in some respects similar to recurrence analysis, but here we compare not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval. The duration of this interval is a parameter that we will refer to as delta. We assume that the environment has been divided into a set of N different areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given interval of time of duration delta, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector. These proportions can be converted to integer counts by multiplying by delta divided by the average fixation duration (another parameter that we fix at 280 milliseconds). We compare different intervals by computing the chi-square statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. The method has been applied to approximately 100 hours of eye movement data collected from pilots in a high-fidelity B747 flight simulator, and the results have been compared to synthetic data in which the each activity is represented as first-order Markov process with random probabilities assigned to the AOIs. Randomly-generated synthetic activities can require thousands of fixations to be discriminated with statistical significance, while the human data can be clustered using averaging windows of some 10's of seconds, suggesting that the actual activities are much more narrowly focused than random Markov models.

activity analysis↗

Trends and Seasonal Variability of Atmospheric NO2 and HNO3 Concentrations Across Three Major African Biomes Inferred from Long-Term Series of Ground-Based and Satellite Measurements

In the framework of the INDAAF (International Network to study Deposition and Atmospheric chemistry in AFrica) programme, part of the ACTRIS (Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure), European Research Infrastructure for the long-term observation of Aerosol, Cloud, and Trace gases, this paper aims to study trends and seasonal variability of surface atmospheric NO2 and HNO3 concentrations, and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) NO2 over 6 sites in tropical Africa. Sites are located in west and central Africa to represent the major African biomes: dry savanna (Banizoumbou, Niger and Katibougou, Mali), wet savanna (Djougou, Benin and Lamto, Côte d’Ivoire) and forest (Bomassa, Republic of Congo and Zoétélé, Cameroon). Ground-based NO2 and HNO3 concentrations were obtained over the period 1998–2015 using INDAAF passive samplers at a monthly basis, and NO2 Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) from OMI for a 1-degree grid cell around each sites were obtained from 2005 to 2015. Mean annual NO2 concentrations ranged from 2.3 plus or minus 1.2 to 0.9 plus or minus 0.4 parts per billion (ppb) from dry savannas to forests, representing a north-south gradient. In dry savannas, we observe two concentration peaks of NO2 appearing at the beginning and the end of the wet season both for ground-based and satellite measurements, whereas at wet savannas and forest sites, NO2 concentrations are highest in the dry season. The seasonality of surface NO2 observations provide further evidence for a large role of microbial soil NOx emissions in dry savannas and of biomass burning NOx emissions in wet savanna and forest sites. Mean annual HNO3 concentrations ranged from 0.4 to 0.5 ppb in dry and wet savannas to 0.2 to 0.3 ppb in forest. In dry ecosystems, higher HNO3 concentrations are measured in the early wet season, consistent with NO2 results. The analysis of a long-term dataset of surface O3 concentrations indicates that HNO3 production can mainly be explained by the photo-oxidation of NOx. Mann-Kendall and Seasonal Kendall statistical tests showed that NO2 surface concentrations have a significant decreasing seasonal and annual trends at multiple sites (p-value less than 0.05) ranging from -2.96 percent per year (at Zoétélé) to -0.64 percent per year (at Banizoumbou). HNO3 results indicate no trends except at Bomassa (1.07 percent per year). The decreasing NO2 ground-based concentration trends observed in wet savannas sites are correlated with OMI NO2 decreasing trends at these sites. Trends obtained for NO2 concentrations in wet savanna and forest ecosystems are consistent with trends of NOₓ biomass burning emissions.

Trends↗