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Near hybrid passenger vehicle development program, phase 1. Appendices A and B. Mission analysis and performance specification studies report, volume 1

The three most promising vehicle use patterns (missions) for the near term electric hybrid vehicle were found to be all-purpose city driving, commuting, and family and civic business. The mission selection process was based principally on an analysis of the travel patterns found in the Nationwide Transportation Survey and on the Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. origin-destination studies data. Travel patterns in turn were converted to fuel requirements for 1985 conventional and hybrid cars. By this means, the potential fuel savings for each mission were estimated, and preliminary design requirements for hybrid vehicles were derived.

Source record

High-Speed Civil Transport Forecast: Simulated Airlines Scenarios for Mach 1.6, Mach 2.0, and Mach 2.4 Configurations for Year 2015

The report describes the development of a database of fuel burn and emissions from projected High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) fleets that reflect actual airlines' networks, operational requirement, and traffic flow as operated by simulated world wide airlines for Mach 1.6, 2.0, and 2.4 HSCT configurations. For the year 2015, McDonnell Douglas Corporation created two supersonic commercial air traffic networks consisting of origin-destination city pair routes and associated traffic levels. The first scenario represented a manufacturing upper limit producible HSCT fleet availability by year 2015. The fleet projection of the Mach 2.4 configuration for this scenario was 1059 units with a traffic capture of 70 percent. The second scenario focused on the number of units that can minimally be produced by the year 2015. Using realistic production rates, the HSCT fleet projection amounts to 565 units. The traffic capture associated with this fleet was estimated at 40 percent. The airlines network was extracted from the actual networks of 21 major world airlines. All the routes were screened for suitability for HSCT operations. The route selection criteria included great circle distance, difference between flight path distance and great circle distance to avoid overland operations, and potential flight frequency.

Metwally, Munir

Air Cargo Transportation Route Choice Analysis

Using a unique feature of air cargo transshipment data in the Northeast Asian region, this paper identifies the critical factors that determine the transshipment route choice. Taking advantage of the variations in the transport characteristics in each origin-destination airports pair, the paper uses a discrete choice model to describe the transshipping route choice decision made by an agent (i.e., freight forwarder, consolidator, and large shipper). The analysis incorporates two major factors, monetary cost (such as line-haul cost and landing fee) and time cost (i.e., aircraft turnaround time, including loading and unloading time, custom clearance time, and expected scheduled delay), along with other controls. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and corrects for resulting endogeneity by use of appropriate instrumental variables. Estimation results find that transshipment volumes are more sensitive to time cost, and that the reduction in aircraft turnaround time by 1 hour would be worth the increase in airport charges by more than $1000. Simulation exercises measures the impacts of alternative policy scenarios for a Korean airport, which has recently declared their intention to be a future regional hub in the Northeast Asian region. The results suggest that reducing aircraft turnaround time at the airport be an effective strategy, rather than subsidizing to reduce airport charges.

Obashi, Hiroshi

Near real-time traffic routing

A near real-time physical transportation network routing system comprising: a traffic simulation computing grid and a dynamic traffic routing service computing grid. The traffic simulator produces traffic network travel time predictions for a physical transportation network using a traffic simulation model and common input data. The physical transportation network is divided into a multiple sections. Each section has a primary zone and a buffer zone. The traffic simulation computing grid includes multiple of traffic simulation computing nodes. The common input data includes static network characteristics, an origin-destination data table, dynamic traffic information data and historical traffic data. The dynamic traffic routing service computing grid includes multiple dynamic traffic routing computing nodes and generates traffic route(s) using the traffic network travel time predictions.

Yang, Chaowei

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and the Potential Climate Impact

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flight plan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Ng, Hok K.

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Potential Climate Impact

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flightplan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Sridhar, Banavar

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek

Seat Capacity Selection for an Advanced Short-Haul Aircraft Design

A study was performed to determine the target seat capacity for a proposed advanced short-haul aircraft concept projected to enter the fleet by 2030. This analysis projected the potential demand in the U.S. for a short-haul aircraft using a transportation theory approach, rather than selecting a target seat capacity based on recent industry trends or current market demand. A transportation systems model was used to create a point-to-point network of short-haul trips and then predict the number of annual origin-destination trips on this network. Aircraft of varying seat capacities were used to meet the demand on this network, assuming a single aircraft type for the entire short-haul fleet. For each aircraft size, the ticket revenue and operational costs were used to calculate a total market profitability metric for all feasible flights. The different aircraft sizes were compared, based on this market profitability metric and also the total number of annual round trips and markets served. Sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the effect of changing the aircraft cruise speed and maximum trip length. Using this analysis, the advanced short-haul aircraft design team was able to select a target seat capacity for their design.

Marien, Ty V.

Short-Haul Revitalization Study Final Report

A feasibility study was performed for an advanced commercial short-haul aircraft to evaluate the potential for increased service for short-haul flights that operate out of regional and community airports. An analysis of potential origin-destination markets and trip distances resulted in a seat capacity selection of 48 passengers and a design range of 600 NM. A down-select of advanced technologies resulted in a hybrid-electric propulsion system being chosen as the primary enabling technology. A conceptual design of the advanced aircraft was developed, and a mission and sizing analysis was performed, comparing variants of the advanced aircraft with different levels of electrification. Fairly aggressive levels of electrification and battery specific energy are needed for the hybridelectric architecture to realize any benefit in terms of total energy cost for the 600 NM design mission. The development and operational costs were estimated for the advanced aircraft and compared to the baseline. This analysis demonstrated the negative effect of the cost to develop the hybrid-electric technology on the eventual operating cost. A market analysis was performed to determine possible passenger demand for the advanced shorthaul aircraft. According to the market analysis, there is potential demand for such an aircraft, but not necessarily in many of the smaller regional and community airports that were the intended beneficiaries of this new aircraft concept.

Marien, Ty V.

Scheduling For Urban Air Mobility Using Safe Learning

This work considers the scheduling problem for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles travelling between origin-destination pairs with both hard and soft trip deadlines. Each route is described by a discrete probability distribution over trip completion times (or delay) and over interarrival times of requests (or demand) for the route along with a fixed hard or soft deadline. Soft deadlines carry a cost that is incurred when the deadline is missed. An online, safe scheduler is developed that ensures that hard deadlines are never missed and that average cost of missing soft deadlines is minimized. The system is modelled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and safe model based learning is used to find the probabilistic distributions over route delays and demand. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) Earliest Deadline First (EDF) is used to safely explore the learned models in an online fashion and develop a near-optimal non-preemptive scheduling policy. These results are compared with Value Iteration (VI) and MCTS (Random) scheduling solutions.

Urban Air Mobility

Scheduling for Urban Air Mobility using Safe Learning

This work considers the scheduling problem for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles travelling between origin-destination pairs with both hard and soft trip deadlines. Each route is described by a discrete probability distribution over trip completion times (or delay) and over interarrival times of requests (or demand) for the route along with a fixed hard or soft deadline. Soft deadlines carry a cost that is incurred when the deadline is missed. An online, safe scheduler is developed that ensures that hard deadlines are never missed and that average cost of missing soft deadlines is minimized. The system is modelled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and safe model based learning is used to find the probabilistic distributions over route delays and demand. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) Earliest Deadline First (EDF) is used to safely explore the learned models in an online fashion and develop a near-optimal non-preemptive scheduling policy. These results are compared with Value Iteration (VI) and MCTS (Random) scheduling solutions.

Urban Air Mobility

Passenger Aggregation Network with Very Efficient Listing (PANVEL) Ridesharing Model for Urban Air Mobility

This paper introduces a ridesharing model useful for examining the role of ridesharing in advancing Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. Although the success of UAM will likely require a host of new technologies in aircraft design, airspace management, autonomy, and more, operational innovations like ridesharing may also be key, especially to lower operating costs and attract a broader market. The ridesharing algorithm introduced, termed the Passenger Aggregation Network with Very Efficient Listing (PANVEL) model, estimates trip numbers and passenger occupancy aboard particular aircraft within a UAM network in a metropolitan area. This algorithm is applied within a transportation computational framework to determine the impact of ridesharing on mode choice, passenger travel patterns, and transportation costs. The algorithm aggregates passengers traveling between identical origin-destination pairs, factoring in individual-specific metrics, such as value of time and alternative mode options, to generate high load factors on UAM aircraft. The computational framework simulates passenger mode-choice selections using an effective-cost approach to determine the number of ridesharing UAM-preferred trips, and results with ridesharing are representative of a rough upper bound on UAM ridership potential for a given metro area. A case study in the Cleveland metro area is presented to demonstrate the algorithm and assess ridesharing potential.

advanced air mobility

Passenger Aggregation Network with Very Efficient Listing (PANVEL) Ridesharing Model for Urban Air Mobility

This presentation introduces a ridesharing model useful for examining the role of ridesharing in advancing Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. Although the success of UAM will likely require a host of new technologies in aircraft design, airspace management, autonomy, and more, operational innovations like ridesharing may also be key, especially to lower operating costs and attract a broader market. The ridesharing algorithm introduced, termed the Passenger Aggregation Network with Very Efficient Listing (PANVEL) model, estimates trip numbers and passenger occupancy aboard particular aircraft within a UAM network in a metropolitan area. This algorithm is applied within a transportation computational framework to determine the impact of ridesharing on mode choice, passenger travel patterns, and transportation costs. The algorithm aggregates passengers traveling between identical origin-destination pairs, factoring in individual-specific metrics, such as value of time and alternative mode options, to generate high load factors on UAM aircraft. The computational framework simulates passenger mode-choice selections using an effective-cost approach to determine the number of ridesharing UAM-preferred trips, and results with ridesharing are representative of a rough upper bound on UAM ridership potential for a given metro area. A case study in the Cleveland metro area is presented to demonstrate the algorithm and assess ridesharing potential.

advanced air mobility