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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generating high-resolution total canopy SIF emission from TROPOMI data: Algorithm and application

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a rapidly advancing front in modeling global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). Canopy total SIF emissions (SIF total ) are mechanistically linked to the plant photosynthesis, and can be estimated from satellite observed SIF (SIF obs ) through radiative transfer modeling. However, the current satellite SIF obs and thus SIF total are available only at coarse spatial resolutions from several kilometers to tens of kilometers, inhibiting the application at fine spatial scales. Here, in this work, we proposed an algorithm to generate both global high-resolution SIF total (HSIF total ) and high-resolution SIF obs (HSIF obs ) at 1 km from low-resolution SIF obs (LSIF obs ) from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), which has a spatial resolution at nadir of 3.5 km by 5.6–7 km. Our statistical method is based on the law of energy conservation and uses satellite derived fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, fluorescence efficiency, and the escape probability of fluorescence. We evaluated the accuracy of our HSIF total using the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 SIF (R 2 = 0.78). We found that the spatial resolution had clear effects on the relationship between HSIF total and GPP. We also compared HSIF total to 8-day averaged tower GPP from 135 flux sites and found that they were better correlated when HSIF total was averaged over a 1-km radius around the tower than when averaged over a larger radius. Our study provided a unique high-resolution HSIF total product, which will advance the estimation of GPP by extrapolating site-level relationships to the global scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗