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Is the Sky Really Falling? An Overview of Orbital Debris

Orbital debris has been a prominent topic for a while, even before the movie Gravity came out. An anti-satellite test and a collision with an operational satellite both produced large highly-publicized debris clouds within recent years. While large objects like abandoned satellites and rocket bodies may be the most recognizable and identifiable concerns, a majority of the daily threat comes from the much more numerous smaller particles. In fact, small particle penetration continues to rank among the leading risks for manned space missions to the International Space Station and beyond. How much 'stuff' is up there, where did it come from, what harm can it do, and what is being done about it? These questions and more will be discussed.

Orbital Debris

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke

Report on orbital debris

The success of space endeavors depends upon a space environment sufficiently free of debris to enable the safe and dependable operation of spacecraft. An environment overly cluttered with debris would threaten the ability to utilize space for a wide variety of scientific, technological, military, and commercial purposes. Man made space debris (orbital debris) differs from natural meteoroids because it remains in earth orbit during its lifetime and is not transient through the space around the Earth. The orbital debris environment is considered. The space environment is described along with sources of orbital debris. The current national space policy is examined, along with ways to minimize debris generation and ways to survive the debris environment. International efforts, legal issues and commercial regulations are also examined.

Source record

Orbital Debris and the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

This submission includes 11 presentations prepared by NASA for the Trilateral Safety & Mission Assurance (SMA) Conference from June 24-26th at the ESA Centre for Earth Observation. These presentations encompass various safety & mission assurance topics focused on the conference themes of lunar exploration, space sustainability, new commercial partners & challenges, digital engineering, and the assurance of new technologies. These presentations will be shared amongst an international community of SMA practitioners & leadership to promote mutual dialogue on initiatives & challenges of SMA in an evolving spaceflight field.

OSIRIS

Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope Observations of the Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environment. Observing Years: 2007-2009

NASA uses the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST), the University of Michigan's 0.61-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, to help characterize the debris environment in geosynchronous orbit; this began in February 2001 and continues to the present day. Detected objects that are found to be on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network cataloged objects list are termed correlated targets (CTs), while those not found on the list are called uncorrelated targets (UCTs). This Johnson Space Center report provides details of observational and data-reduction processes for the entire MODEST dataset acquired in calendar years (CYs) 2007, 2008, and 2009. Specifically, this report describes the collection and analysis of 36 nights of data collected in CY 2007, 43 nights of data collected in CY 2008, and 43 nights of data collected in CY 2009. MODEST is equipped with a 2048 x 2048-pixel charged coupled device camera with a 1.3 by 1.3 deg field of view. This system is capable of detecting objects fainter than 18th magnitude (R filter) using a 5-s integration. This corresponds to a 20-cm diameter, 0.175-albedo object at 36,000 km altitude assuming a diffuse Lambertian phase function. The average number of detections each night over all 3 years was 26. The percentage of this number that represented the UCT population ranged from 34% to 18%, depending on the observing strategy and the field center location. Due to the short orbital arc over which observations are made, the eccentricity of the object s orbit is extremely difficult to measure accurately. Therefore, a circular orbit was assumed when calculating the orbital elements. A comparison of the measured inclination (INC), right ascension of ascending node (RAAN), and mean motion to the quantities for CTs from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network shows acceptable errors. This analysis lends credibility to the determination of the UCT orbital distributions. Figure 1 shows the size distribution of 3,143 objects detected in the data processed for CYs 2007, 2008, and 2009. The actual peak of the absolute magnitude distribution for the functional correlated targets is 10th magnitude, whereas the peak was 11th magnitude in 2002 2003 and 10th magnitude for 2004-2006. An absolute magnitude of 10.5 corresponds to objects with average diameters of 6.3 m, assuming an albedo of 0.175 and a diffuse Lambertian phase function. This result generally agrees with the known sizes of intact satellites. The absolute magnitude distribution for the UCTs is broad, but starts to roll off near 25 cm diameter or 17.5 magnitude. This roll off in the distribution reflects the detection capability of MODEST, not the true nature of the population. The true population is believed to continue at the same slope through fainter magnitudes based on comparisons with the LEO break-up law.

Abercromby, K. J.

Vulnerability of manned spacecraft to crew loss from orbital debris penetration

Orbital debris growth threatens the survival of spacecraft systems from impact-induced failures. Whereas the probability of debris impact and spacecraft penetration may currently be calculated, another parameter of great interest to safety engineers is the probability that debris penetration will cause actual spacecraft or crew loss. Quantifying the likelihood of crew loss following a penetration allows spacecraft designers to identify those design features and crew operational protocols that offer the highest improvement in crew safety for available resources. Within this study, a manned spacecraft crew survivability (MSCSurv) computer model is developed that quantifies the conditional probability of losing one or more crew members, P(sub loss/pen), following the remote likelihood of an orbital debris penetration into an eight module space station. Contributions to P(sub loss/pen) are quantified from three significant penetration-induced hazards: pressure wall rupture (explosive decompression), fragment-induced injury, and 'slow' depressurization. Sensitivity analyses are performed using alternate assumptions for hazard-generating functions, crew vulnerability thresholds, and selected spacecraft design and crew operations parameters. These results are then used to recommend modifications to the spacecraft design and expected crew operations that quantitatively increase crew safety from orbital debris impacts.

Williamsen, J. E.

Design of an unmanned, reusable vehicle to de-orbit debris in Earth orbit

The space debris problem is becoming more important because as orbital missions increase, the amount of debris increases. It was the design team's objective to present alternative designs and a problem solution for a deorbiting vehicle that will alleviate the problem by reducing the amount of large debris in earth orbit. The design team was asked to design a reusable, unmanned vehicle to de-orbit debris in earth orbit. The design team will also construct a model to demonstrate the system configuration and key operating features. The alternative designs for the unmanned, reusable vehicle were developed in three stages: selection of project requirements and success criteria, formulation of a specification list, and the creation of alternatives that would satisfy the standards set forth by the design team and their sponsor. The design team selected a Chain and Bar Shot method for deorbiting debris in earth orbit. The De-orbiting Vehicle (DOV) uses the NASA Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) as the propulsion and command modules with the deorbiting module attached to the front.

Aziz, Shahed

Orbital Debris

Earth orbital debris issues and recommended future activities are discussed. The workshop addressed the areas of environment definition, hazards to spacecraft, and space object management. It concluded that orbital debris is a potential problem for future space operations. However, before recommending any major efforts to control the environment, more data are required. The most significant required data are on the population of debris smaller than 4 cm in diameter. New damage criteria are also required. When these data are obtained, they can be combined with hypervelocity data to evaluate the hazards to future spacecraft. After these hazards are understood, then techniques to control the environment can be evaluated.

Donald J. Kessler

A Comparison of Damaging Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Fluxes in Earth Orbit

Low Earth orbit is populated with a substantial amount of orbital debris, and it is usually assumed that the flux from these objects contributes to most of the hypervelocity particle risk to spacecraft in this region. The meteoroid flux is known to be dominant at very low altitudes (<300 km), where atmospheric drag rapidly removes debris, and at very high altitudes beyond GEO (geostationary), where debris is practically non-existent. The vagueness of these boundaries has prompted this work, in which we compare the fluxes of meteoroids and orbital debris capable of penetrating a millimeter thick aluminum plate for circular orbits with altitudes ranging from the top of the atmosphere to 100,000 km. The outputs from the latest NASA debris and meteoroid models, ORDEM 3.0 and MEMR2, are combined with the modified Cour-Palais ballistic limit equation to make a realistic evaluation of the damage-capable particle fluxes, thereby establishing the relative contributions of hazardous debris and meteoroids in near Earth space.

Cooke, William

A Comparison of Damaging Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Fluxes in Earth Orbit

Low Earth orbit is populated with a substantial amount of orbital debris, and it is usually assumed that the flux from these objects contributes to most of the hypervelocity particle risk to spacecraft in this region. The meteoroid flux is known to be dominant at very low altitudes (less than 300 km), where atmospheric drag rapidly removes debris, and at very high altitudes (beyond geostationary), where debris is practically non-existent. The vagueness of these boundaries and repeated questions from spacecraft projects have prompted this work, in which we compare the fluxes of meteoroids and orbital debris capable of producing a millimeter-deep crater in aluminum for circular orbits with altitudes ranging from the top of the atmosphere to 100,000 km. The outputs from the latest NASA debris and meteoroid models, ORDEM 3.0 and MEMR2, are combined with the modified Cour-Palais ballistic limit equation to make a realistic evaluation of the damage-capable particle fluxes, thereby establishing the relative contributions of hazardous debris and meteoroids throughout near-Earth space.

Cooke, William

Meteoroid and orbital debris shielding on the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle

NASA's Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) is being designed to withstand a 10-year lifetime in polar and low earth orbits. A large percentage of OMV's lifetime will be spent operating in the vicinity of the Space Shuttle and Space Station or in storage at these manned locations. An extensive analysis has been performed to determine the effects of the meteoroid and orbital debris environments on OMV's external fuel tanks. A finite element model of OMV was constructed using NASTRAN and analyzed with the meteoroid and debris design analysis code BUMPER. The results show that the long design lifetime, and the ever increasing man-made orbital debris environment, will require the use of shielding over the external fuel tanks.

Kirkpatrick, Marc E.

Recent Radar Observations of the Sub-Centimeter Orbital Debris Environment

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted radar observations of the orbital debris environment since the early 1990’s to provide measurement data that supports orbital debris models and risk mitigation activities in support of NASA mission objectives. Orbital debris radar observations are a unique mode for radar operation, employing a fixed beam configuration to statistically sample the environment. An advantage of conducting operations in this fashion is that it enables observations of smaller classes of orbital debris than would otherwise be available from the same sensor operating in a traditional tracking mode. Orbital debris-mode radar observations are used to fill in the gaps, which exist in the currently available data from the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), on small size orbital debris populations that represent significant risk to NASA programs. These gaps have typically covered orbital debris with characteristic sizes less than approximately 10 cm down to approximately 3 mm in low Earth orbit (LEO) – depending upon the altitude and sensor configuration. The value of orbital debris radar measurements lies in the ability to extract partial orbital element information about orbital debris in the centimeter to several millimeter size regimes in low Earth orbit – which are not available from other measurement sources. This paper will discuss observations of this smaller class of orbital debris observed in recent years from the radars at the MIT Haystack Observatory in Westford, Massachusetts, and the Goldstone Solar System Radar near Barstow, California. The former radar is able to observe orbital debris down to approximately 5 mm, and the latter, orbital debris with characteristic sizes near 3 mm – at altitudes less than 1000 km. The characteristics and inferences about the current LEO orbital debris environment, and the different subpopulations that are identifiable in the observations are highlighted.

Kennedy, Timothy

Best Mitigation Paths To Effectively Reduce Earth's Orbital Debris

This slide presentation reviews some ways to reduce the problem posed by debris in orbit around the Earth. It reviews the orbital debris environment, the near-term needs to minimize the Kessler syndrome, also known as collisional cascading, a survey of active orbital debris mitigation strategies, the best paths to actively remove orbital debris, and technologies that are required for active debris mitigation.

Wiegman, Bruce M.

NASA/JSC orbital debris models

The orbital debris models developed within the framework of the NASA Johnson Space Center's (JSC's) orbital debris program, are categorized as environment definition and risk assessment models. The EVOLVE, CHAIN and the orbital debris engineering model 1996 (ORDEM96) computer programs determine the past, present and future orbital particulate environment, while the BUMPER and debris assessment software (DAS) computer programs provide a means for evaluating the risks of specific space missions. These models are presented. To support these models and to conduct specialized analyses, NASA/JSC employs a range of auxiliary models, including explosion and collision satellite breakup models, hypervelocity impact ballistic limit models, orbit propagation and decay models, space traffic models and solid rocket motor effluent models.

Johnson, Nicholas

Summary of Orbital Debris Workshop

An Orbital Debris Workshop was conducted in July 1982. The working groups established were related to measurements of large particles, modeling of large particles, measurements of small particles, spacecraft hazard and shielding requirements, and space object management. The results of the Orbital Debris Workshop reaffirm the need for research to better understand the character of orbital debris, its effects on future spacecraft, and the related requirements for policy. A clear charter is required for this research to receive the necessary support, focus, and coordination. It was recommended that NASA assume the role of lead agency. The first task is to develop an overall plan with both Department of Defense and the North American Aerospace Defense Command participation.

Kessler, D. J.