Star Passages Through the Oort Cloud
Stars passing through the Oort cloud eject comets to interstellar space and initiate showers of comets into the planetary region.
Oort cloud comets cometary orbits shower comets↗
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Periodic Comet Showers, Mass Extinctions, and the Galaxy
Geologic data on mass extinctions of life and evidence of large impacts on the Earth are thus far consistent with a quasi-periodic modulation of the flux of Oort cloud comets. Impacts of large comets and asteroids are capable of causing mass extinction of species, and the records of large impact craters and mass show a correlation. Impacts and extinctions display periods in the range of approximately 31 +/- 5 m.y., depending on dating methods, published time scales, length of record, and number of events analyzed. Statistical studies show that observed differences in the formal periodicity of extinctions and craters are to be expected, taking into consideration problems in dating and the likelihood that both records would be mixtures of periodic and random events. These results could be explained by quasi-periodic showers of Oort Cloud comets with a similar cycle. The best candidate for a pacemaker for comet showers is the Sun's vertical oscillation through the plane of the Galaxy, with a half-period over the last 250 million years in the same range. We originally suggested that the probability of encounters with molecular clouds that could perturb the Oort comet cloud and cause comet showers is modulated by the Sun's vertical motion through the galactic disk. Tidal forces produced by the overall gravitational field of the Galaxy can also cause perturbations of cometary orbits. Since these forces vary with the changing position of the solar system in the Galaxy, they provide a mechanism for the periodic variation in the flux of Oort cloud comets into the inner solar system. The cycle time and degree of modulation depend critically on the mass distribution in the galactic disk. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
Rampino, M. R.↗
Dynamics of Long-period Comets
Dynamical studies of the origin and evolution of long period comets in the Oort cloud during the past year have concentrated on four areas: (1) interpretation of IRAS observations of dust shells around Vega and some 40 other main sequence stars as evidence for cometary clouds around each of these stars; (2) the dynamical plausibility of an unseen solar companion star orbiting in the Oort cloud and causing periodic cometary showers which result in biological extinction events on the earth; (3) a review of the current hypotheses for cometary formation with particular attention to how each mechanism supplies the required mass of comets to the Oort cloud; and (4) development of new dynamics software to simulate the passage of individual stars directly through the Oort cloud. Each of these efforts is described in detail.
Weissman, P. R.↗
Star Passages Through the Oort Cloud
Random passing stars regularly penetrate the Oort cloud, resulting in major perturbations to the orbits of comets there.
major perturbations to orbits of comets hyperbolic↗
Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud
The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital] periods and generally large distances from the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets. They appear at random, uniformly distributed on the celestial sphere. Current technologies can detect long-period comets at distances of approx. 5 AU, giving somewhat less than a one year warning time for potential Earth impactors. The mean impact probability for a long-period comet crossing the Earth's orbit is 2.2 to 2.5 x 10(exp -9) per perihelion passage. The mean impact velocity is approximately 52 km sec-1 but the most probable impact energy is characterized by a velocity of 56 to 58 km/sec. The estimated current impact rate for cometary nuclei large enough to create 10 km diameter (or larger) craters on the Earth is between 5 x 10(exp -7) and 2.8 x 10(exp -6) per year, with a bed estimated value of 1.0 x 10(exp -6) per year. Nuclei large enough to initiate global climatic disturbances strike the Earth on average every 16 Myr. The impact frequency may be increased substantially for brief periods of time during cometary showers, initiated by major perturbations of the Oort cloud. Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.
Weissman, Paul R.↗
Cometary showers and unseen solar companions
The possibility that an invisible solar companion passing through the Oort cloud every 28 Myr precipitates a sufficiently high rate of cometary collisions with the earth to account for periodic mass species extinctions recorded in the fossil record is discussed. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that any hypothesized 'death star' with a 28 Myr orbit would experience an average 10 percent change in period per orbit. Production of an 18-fold increase in cometary impacts would be associated with a 0.055 probability that a 10 km nucleus would hit the earth in a shower once every 510 Myr, longer than the proposed extinction periodicity. However, if the death star orbit has a 0.6 eccentricity and the Oort cloud is sufficiently densely populated, a 2 billion comet shower may be possible. A survey of large terrestrial impact craters indicates that 6-12 craters with diameters over 10 km originated in periodic showers. The extinctions in any case occur at 26 Myr periods and cannot be correlated with the 33 Myr period of recrossing the galactic plane, or with any other known phenomena.
Weissman, P. R.↗
Dynamics of long period comets
The appearance of Halley's Comet in 1985 to 1986 and the related emphasis on research on physical models of cometary nuclei, led to a more moderate pace for the dynamical studies of the Oort cloud and the motion of long-period comets this year. Specific areas studied included the dynamical evolution of cometary showers as a result of stars passages through the inner Oort cloud and the possible relationship to observed stepwise mass extinctions at geological boundaries, revised estimates for the total mass of comets in the Oort cloud as a result of lessons learned from the spacecraft encounters with Halley's Comet, and study of the possible dynamical sources for the short-period comets in the solar system as part of a wider study of physical processing of cometary nuclei prior to their becoming visible comets. The work on cometary showers used a Monte Carlo simulation of the evolution of cometary orbits under a combination of planetary, nongravitational, and stellar perturbations, and with physical removal by disruption, sublimation of all volatiles, and collision.
Weissman, Paul R.↗
Evolution of comets into asteroids
This paper presents observational evidence, together with recent theoretical developments, supporting the hypothesis that at least some asteroids might be extinct or dormant cometary nuclei. The observations include the discovery of a number of apparent asteroids in chaotic Jupiter-crossing orbits; the IRAS discovery of 1983 TB, an asteroid in the same orbit as the Geminid meteor shower; the apparent low activity levels determined for several short-period comet nuclei including Comet Halley; and observations of possible cometary activity in some earth-crossing asteroids. Theoretical developments include explorations of dynamical mechanisms capable of delivering main-belt asteroids into earth-crossing orbits, and an understanding of possible processes which may affect comets during their long residence in the Oort cloud and lead to the formation of nonvolatile crusts before and after they enter the planetary system.
Weissman, Paul R.↗
The Oort cloud and the Galaxy - Dynamical interactions
The results of recent dynamical studies of the Oort cloud and its interaction with the Galaxy are discussed. Various studies which used Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the evolution of comets in the Oort cloud and the manner in which they are injected into the planetary region are reviewed. Work done on perturbation of cometary orbits by stars, interstellar clouds, and the Galaxy is examined. The growing consensus that there is a massive inner Oort cloud with a population up to 100 times that of the dynamically active outer cloud is addressed. Variations on the Oort hypothesis are discussed. It is argued that speculations about the existence of a small unseen solar companion star or a tenth planet causing periodic comet showers from the inner Oort cloud are not supported by dynamical studies or analyses of the terrestrial and lunar cratering record. Evidence for Oort clouds around other stars is summarized.
Weissman, Paul R.↗
Dynamical evolution of the Oort cloud
New studies of the dynamical evolution of cometary orbits in the Oort cloud are made using a revised version of Weissman's (1982) Monte Carlo simulation model, which more accurately mimics the perturbation of comets by the giant planets. It is shown that perturbations by Saturn and Jupiter provide a substantial barrier to the diffusion of cometary perihelia into the inner solar system. Perturbations by Uranus and Neptune are rarely great enough to remove comets from the Oort cloud, but do serve to scatter the comets in the cloud in initial energy. The new model gives a population of 1.8 to 2.1 x 10 to the 12th comets for the present-day Oort cloud, and a mass of 7 to 8 earth masses. Perturbation of the Oort cloud by giant molecular clouds in the galaxy is discussed, as is evidence for a massive 'inner Oort cloud' internal to the observed one. The possibility of an unseen solar companion orbiting in the Oort cloud and causing periodic comet showers is shown to be dynamically plausible but unlikely, based on the observed cratering rate on the earth and moon.
Weissman, P. R.↗