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At least 19 records

Challenges and alternatives to empirical orthogonal functions for earth system data

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) applied to gridded Earth system data enables users to diagnose modes of variability with relative ease. Yet, many challenges to interpretation exist such that they must be used with awareness and intention when applied to gridded climate data, especially with large ensembles. Utilizing data from two different Earth system modelling large ensemble frameworks, the Energy Exoscale Earth System Model and the Community Earth System Model, as well as reanalysis data, common EOF pitfalls are summarized and discussed. Challenges include erroneous mode swapping, sign flipping, and the temporal variability of the centers of action. For modes of variability with similar contribution to variance, mode swapping is not uncommon. Sign flipping can occur with almost any mode where the pattern is correct, but the sign is arbitrary. Although the variability of the center of action is not necessarily problematic, it potentially complicates interpretation over multi-century timescales. A wide variety of alternative methods to EOFs exist, but fitness-for-purpose must be evaluated. Additionally, illustrations of alternative methods and examples of proper use are provided. Alternative methods fit into three categories: EOF variants, linear methods, and multilinear methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Lomb–Scargle Analysis to Derive Empirical Orthogonal Functions from Gappy Meteorological Data

The Lomb–Scargle discrete Fourier transform (LSDFT) is a well-known technique for analyzing time series. In this study, a solution for empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) based on irregularly sampled data is derived from the LSDFT. It is demonstrated that this particular algorithm has no hard limit on its accuracy and yields results comparable to those of complex Hilbert EOF analysis. Two LSDFT algorithms are compared in terms of their performance in evaluating EOFs for precipitation observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. Both are shown to be able to capture the pattern of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the complex topography and diverse land cover of South America, and both also show other consistent features in the 0–12-day frequency band.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systems of Functions Orthogonal Over the Domain and Their Application in Boundary-Value Problems of Mathematical Physics

We formulate a boundary-value problem for eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the Helmholtz equation in a complex domain with the use of mutually conjugated complex variables. The obtained systems of functions are orthogonal in this domain and constructed by using the Bessel functions and powers of the conformal mappings of the analyzed domains onto a circle. The solutions of boundary-value problems for the principal equations of mathematical physics (hyperbolic, parabolic and elliptic types) are obtained in the form of the sums of series in the systems of functions orthogonal over the domain.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fully-Implicit Orthogonal Reconstructed Discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin Method for Multiphysics Problems

This document is focussed on the development of reconstructed discontinuous Galerkin (RDG P n P m ) method, based on orthogonal basis functions. Orthogonality of basis functions is essential for enabling robust and efficient fully-implicit Newton-Krylov based time discretization. The method is designed for generic partial differential equations, including transient hyperbolic, parabolic and/or elliptic operators, which are attributed to many multiphysics problems. Our driving application of interest is additive manufacturing, which requires simulations of fluid-solid-gas systems, with compressibility effects and phase change (melting/ solidification). Thus, we demonstrate the method capabilities for solving nonlinear heat conduction equation coupled with multi-material Navier-Stokes based compressible fluid (in low Mach number limit) systems. We focus our attention to the method accuracy (in both time and space), as well as solvability of linear algebra involved in linear steps of the Newton-based solver. We demonstrate the accuracy and efficacy of the method, emphasizing the advantages from the orthogonality of basis functions, which makes better conditioning of underlying (approximate) Jacobian matrices, and rapid convergence of Krylov methods. iii

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Algorithm for Estimating Terrestrial Latent Heat Flux from Eddy Covariance, Meteorological and Satellite Observations

Accurate estimation of latent heat flux (LE) based on remote sensing data is critical in characterizing terrestrial ecosystems and modeling land surface processes. Many LE products were released during the past few decades, but their quality might not meet the requirements in terms of data consistency and estimation accuracy. Merging multiple algorithms could be an effective way to improve the quality of existing LE products. In this paper, we present a data integration method based on modified empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to integrate the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LE product (MOD16) and the Priestley-Taylor LE algorithm of Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) estimate. Twenty-two eddy covariance (EC) sites with LE observation were chosen to evaluate our algorithm, showing that the proposed EOF fusion method was capable of integrating the two satellite data sets with improved consistency and reduced uncertainties. Further efforts were needed to evaluate and improve the proposed algorithm at larger spatial scales and time periods, and over different land cover types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability

Using historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and multiple observationally-based datasets, we employ skill metrics to analyze the fidelity of the simulated Northern Annular Mode, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific North America pattern, the Southern Annular Mode, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. We assess the benefits of a unified approach to evaluate these modes of variability, which we call the common basis function (CBF) approach, based on projecting model anomalies onto observed empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). The CBF approach circumvents issues with conventional EOF analysis, eliminating, for example, corrections of arbitrarily assigned, but inconsistent, signs of the EOF’s/PC’s being compared. It also avoids the problem that sometimes the first observed EOF is more similar to a higher order model EOF, particularly if the simulated EOFs are not well separated. Compared to conventional EOF analysis of models, the CBF approach indicates that models compare significantly better with observations in terms of pattern correlation and root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) than heretofore suggested. In many cases, models are doing a credible job at capturing the observationally-based estimates of patterns; however, errors in simulated amplitudes can be large and more egregious than pattern errors. In the context of the broad distribution of errors in the CMIP5 ensemble, sensitivity tests demonstrate that our results are relatively insensitive to methodological considerations (CBF vs. conventional approach), observational uncertainties in pattern (as determined by using multiple datasets), and internal variability (when multiple realizations from the same model are compared). The skill metrics proposed in this study can provide a useful summary of the ability of models to reproduce the observed EOF patterns and amplitudes. Additionally, the skill metrics can be used as a tool to objectively highlight where potential model improvements might be made. Finally, we advocate more systematic and objective testing of simulated extratropical variability, especially during the non-dominant seasons of each mode, when many models are performing relatively poorly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks

In climatological research, the evaluation of climate models is one of the central research subjects. As an expression of large-scale dynamical processes, global teleconnections play a major role in interannual to decadal climate variability. Their realistic representation is an indispensable requirement for the simulation of climate change, both natural and anthropogenic. Therefore, the evaluation of global teleconnections is of utmost importance when assessing the physical plausibility of climate projections. We present an application of the graph-theoretical analysis tool δ-MAPS, which constructs complex networks on the basis of spatio-temporal gridded data sets, here sea surface temperature and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Complex networks complement more traditional methods in the analysis of climate variability, like the classification of circulation regimes or empirical orthogonal functions, assuming a new non-linear perspective. While doing so, a number of technical tools and metrics, borrowed from different fields of data science, are implemented into the δ-MAPS framework in order to overcome specific challenges posed by our target problem. Those are trend empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), distance correlation and distance multicorrelation, and the structural similarity index. δ-MAPS is a two-stage algorithm. In the first place, it assembles grid cells with highly coherent temporal evolution into so-called domains. In a second step, the teleconnections between the domains are inferred by means of the non-linear distance correlation. We construct 2 unipartite and 1 bipartite network for 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections and 2 century-long coupled reanalyses (CERA-20C and 20CRv3). Potential non-stationarity is taken into account by the use of moving time windows. The networks derived from projection data are compared to those from reanalyses. Our results indicate that no single climate projection outperforms all others in every aspect of the evaluation. But there are indeed models which tend to perform better/worse in many aspects. Differences in model performance are generally low within the geopotential height unipartite networks but higher in sea surface temperature and most pronounced in the bipartite network representing the interaction between ocean and atmosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Periodicity and patterns of ocean wind and wave climate

Winds and waves play a significant role in the global climate that can be examined through the proven Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A standard empirical orthogonal function method extracts dominant spatial patterns from time series of the reanalysis data. The results show strong zonal structures in the winds and saturation of swells across the ocean basins, but these dominant features obscure the periodicity of the climate cycles. Implementation of the Fourier transform removes non-oscillatory signals in the wind and waves for elucidation of cyclic features through the empirical orthogonal function method. A systematic analysis illustrates the dominant modes and their periodicity in the three major ocean basins. The North Atlantic dominates the variability in the entire ocean basin with a broad range of intra-seasonal signals. The Indian and Pacific are strongly influenced by inter-annual cycles of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Antarctica Oscillation. Here, these two oceans have strong components in the period of 50-90 days that have similar spatial structure to those of 2-5 years period suggesting linkage between the two frequency components.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A linear surrogate for optimising functions of an orthogonal matrix with applications in wave function theory

The technique of surrogate optimisation is to use a simpler function to approximate a complex function that is time-consuming to evaluate. Here we show that the maximum of a special type of surrogate function f(U)=Tr(AU),UϵO(n) is at A T (AA T ) 1/2 , and that there is one and only one local maximum both in SO(n) and O(n)–SO(n). This function f(U) has been found to be useful in various aspects of electronic structure theory, including proving the Carlson-Keller theorem, and localising orbitals. As one other example, we apply it here to optimise the ground state of molecules using the Generalised Valence Bond wavefunction.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Multisliced gausslet basis sets for electronic structure

We introduce highly local basis sets for electronic structure which are very efficient for correlation calculations near the complete basis set limit. Our approach is based on gausslets, recently introduced waveletlike smooth orthogonal functions. We adapt the gausslets to particular systems using one-dimensional (1D) coordinate transformations, putting more basis functions near the nuclei, while maintaining orthogonality. Furthermore, three-dimensional basis functions are composed out of products of the 1D functions in an efficient way called multislicing. We demonstrate these bases with both Hartree-Fock and density matrix renormalization group calculations on hydrogen chain systems. With both methods, we can go to higher accuracy in the complete basis set limit than is practical for conventional Gaussian basis sets, with errors near 0.1 mH per atom.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Weight-lattice discretization of Weyl-orbit functions

Weyl-orbit functions have been defined for each simple Lie algebra, and permit Fourier-like analysis on the fundamental region of the corresponding affine Weyl group. They have also been discretized, using a refinement of the coweight lattice, so that digitized data on the fundamental region can be Fourier-analyzed. The discretized orbit function has arguments that are redundant if related by the affine Weyl group, while its labels, the Weyl-orbit representatives, invoke the dual affine Weyl group. Here we discretize the orbit functions in a novel way, by using the weight lattice. A cleaner theory results with symmetry between the arguments and labels of the discretized orbit functions. Orthogonality of the new discretized orbit functions is proved, and leads to the construction of unitary, symmetric matrices with Weyl-orbit-valued elements. For one type of orbit function, the matrix coincides with the Kac-Peterson modular S matrix, important for Wess-Zumino-Novikov-Witten conformal field theory.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Geospatial coherence of surface-atmosphere fluxes in the upper Great Lakes region

Surface-atmosphere fluxes are known to vary at multiple time scales, but uncertainty is high as to how fluxes change spatially within regions. With an increase in the number of eddy covariance towers, we are now able to examine the geospatial coherence of ecosystem fluxes, using time-series correlation. Eighteen sites from Michigan and Wisconsin were used in this study, ranging from 100 m to 600 km apart. Surface-atmosphere fluxes from a six-month period were used to quantify spatial coherence on a pair-wise basis. Using geospatial statistics, carbon and sensible heat (H) fluxes were found to be 95% correlated directly outside of their flux footprint and 56% correlated up to a distance of ~35 km. Latent (LE) and momentum (τ) fluxes were less correlated, 83% directly outside of their flux footprint and 40% at a distance of ~130 km albeit, at a much larger spatial distance than for the carbon and sensible heat fluxes. All fluxes showed strong spectral resonance at diel and seasonal timescales, with 1-, 2- and 3-month periods being common modes of variability among H, LE, and τ fluxes. Results based on Empirical Orthogonal Function show distinct transitions of net ecosystem exchange from fall to winter before photosynthesis or respiration while H and τ do not exhibit coherent trends. Here, this work demonstrates the potential of quantifying geospatial coherence of surface-atmosphere fluxes in the Midwestern United States, with the ability to predict fluxes beyond the spatial limit of a single flux tower footprint. Ultimately, expanding the flux measurements to larger scales would allow better spatial scaling of terrestrial surface-atmosphere fluxes between tower footprint and modeling or remote sensing scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track

Projections of modeled precipitation ( P ) change in global warming scenarios demonstrate marked intermodel disagreement at regional scales. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and maximum covariance analysis (MCA) are used to diagnose spatial patterns of disagreement in the simulated climatology and end-of-century P changes in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. The term principal uncertainty pattern (PUP) is used for any robust mode calculated when applying these techniques to a multimodel ensemble. For selected domains in the tropics, leading PUPs highlight features at the margins of convection zones and in the Pacific cold tongue. The midlatitude Pacific storm track is emphasized given its relevance to wintertime P projections over western North America. The first storm-track PUP identifies a sensitive region of disagreement in P increases over the eastern midlatitude Pacific where the storm track terminates, related to uncertainty in an eastward extension of the climatological jet. The second PUP portrays uncertainty in a zonally asymmetric meridional shift of storm-track P , related to uncertainty in the extent of a poleward jet shift in the western Pacific. Both of these modes appear to arise primarily from intermodel differences in the response to radiative forcing, distinct from sampling of internal variability. The leading storm-track PUPs for P and zonal wind change exhibit similarities to the leading uncertainty patterns for the historical climatology, indicating important and parallel sensitivities in the eastern Pacific storm-track terminus region. However, expansion coefficients for climatological uncertainties tend to be weakly correlated with those for end-of-century change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling coefficients for tensor product representations of quantum SU(2)

We study tensor products of infinite dimensional irreducible {sup *}-representations (not corepresentations) of the SU(2) quantum group. We obtain (generalized) eigenvectors of certain self-adjoint elements using spectral analysis of Jacobi operators associated to well-known q-hypergeometric orthogonal polynomials. We also compute coupling coefficients between different eigenvectors corresponding to the same eigenvalue. Since the continuous spectrum has multiplicity two, the corresponding coupling coefficients can be considered as 2 × 2-matrix-valued orthogonal functions. We compute explicitly the matrix elements of these functions. The coupling coefficients can be considered as q-analogs of Bessel functions. As a results we obtain several q-integral identities involving q-hypergeometric orthogonal polynomials and q-Bessel-type functions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Benchmarking performance changes in the simulation of extratropical modes of variability across CMIP generations

In this work, we evaluate extratropical modes of variability in the three most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, 5, and 6) to gauge improvement of climate models over time. A suite of high-level metrics is employed to objectively evaluate how well climate models simulate the qobserved Northern Annular Mode (NAM), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America pattern (PNA), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). We apply a Common Basis Function (CBF) approach that projects model anomalies onto observed empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), together with the traditional EOF approach, to CMIP Historical and AMIP models. We find simulated spatial patterns of those modes have been significantly improved in the newer models, although the skill improvement is sensitive to the mode and season considered. We identify some potential contributions to the pattern improvement of certain modes (e.g., the Southern Hemisphere jet and High-top vertical coordinate), however the performance changes are likely attributed to gradual improvement of the base climate and multiple relevant processes. Less performance improvement is evident in the mode amplitude of these modes and systematic overestimation of the mode amplitude in spring remains in the newer climate models. We find that the post-dominant season amplitude errors in atmospheric modes are not limited to coupled runs but are often already evident in AMIP simulations. This suggests that rectifying the egregious post-dominant season amplitude errors found in many models can be addressed in an atmospheric-only framework making it more tractable to address in the model development process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗