Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Nuclear data uncertainties”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

General constraints on the age and chemical evolution of the Galaxy

The formalism of Schramm and Wasserburg (1970) for determining the mean age of the elements is extended to develop as model-independent a range for the Galaxy's age as possible that takes all nuclear and meteoritic data uncertainties into account. A model-independent upper limit to that age is derived from an expansion of the equation giving the mean age of the elements in moments of the normalized effective nucleosynthesis rate. This limit depends only on the ratio of the mean time of formation of the elements to the total duration of nucleosynthesis, and on model-independent data. It is shown tht the Th-232/U-238. U-235/U-238, and Pu-244/U-238 chronometric pairs can give constraints on the relative rate of nucleosynthesis over the history of the synthesis of the solar system material.

Meyer, Bradley S.↗

Ammonia in comet P/Halley

In comet P/Halley the abundances of ammonia relative to water reported in the literature differ by about one order of magnitude from roughly 0.1% up to 2%. Different observational techniques seem to have inherent systematic errors. Using the ion mass channels m/q = 19 amu/e, 18 amu/e and 17 amu/e of the Neutral Mass Spectrometer experiment aboard the spacecraft Giotto, we derive a production rate of ammonia of (1.5(sub -0.7)(sup +0.5))% relative to water. Inside the contact surface we can explain our data by a nuclear source only. The uncertainty in our abundance of ammonia is primarily a result of uncertainties in some key reaction coefficients. We discuss in detail these reactions and the range of error indicated results from extreme assumptions in the rate coefficients. From our data, even in the worst case, we can exclude the ammonia abundance to be only of the order of a few per mill.

Meier, R.↗

Preliminary analyses of space radiation protection for lunar base surface systems

Radiation shielding analyses are performed for candidate lunar base habitation modules. The study primarily addresses potential hazards due to contributions from the galactic cosmic rays. The NASA Langley Research Center's high energy nucleon and heavy ion transport codes are used to compute propagation of radiation through conventional and regolith shield materials. Computed values of linear energy transfer are converted to biological dose-equivalent using quality factors established by the International Commision of Radiological Protection. Special fluxes of heavy charged particles and corresponding dosimetric quantities are computed for a series of thicknesses in various shield media and are used as an input data base for algorithms pertaining to specific shielded geometries. Dosimetric results are presented as isodose contour maps of shielded configuration interiors. The dose predictions indicate that shielding requirements are substantial, and an abbreviated uncertainty analysis shows that better definition of the space radiation environment as well as improvement in nuclear interaction cross-section data can greatly increase the accuracy of shield requirement predictions.

Nealy, John E.↗

Common Cause Failure Modeling

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.

Hark, Frank↗

Common Cause Failure Modeling

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshal Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.

Hark, Frank↗

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.

NASA Center LaRC↗

Evaluation of Spacecraft Shielding Effectiveness for Radiation Protection

The potential for serious health risks from solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) is a critical issue in the NASA strategic plan for the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS). The excess cost to protect against the GCR and SPE due to current uncertainties in radiation transmission properties and cancer biology could be exceedingly large based on the excess launch costs to shield against uncertainties. The development of advanced shielding concepts is an important risk mitigation area with the potential to significantly reduce risk below conventional mission designs. A key issue in spacecraft material selection is the understanding of nuclear reactions on the transmission properties of materials. High-energy nuclear particles undergo nuclear reactions in passing through materials and tissue altering their composition and producing new radiation types. Spacecraft and planetary habitat designers can utilize radiation transport codes to identify optimal materials for lowering exposures and to optimize spacecraft design to reduce astronaut exposures. To reach these objectives will require providing design engineers with accurate data bases and computationally efficient software for describing the transmission properties of space radiation in materials. Our program will reduce the uncertainty in the transmission properties of space radiation by improving the theoretical description of nuclear reactions and radiation transport, and provide accurate physical descriptions of the track structure of microscopic energy deposition.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

A Comprehensive Validation Methodology for Sparse Experimental Data

A comprehensive program of verification and validation has been undertaken to assess the applicability of models to space radiation shielding applications and to track progress as models are developed over time. The models are placed under configuration control, and automated validation tests are used so that comparisons can readily be made as models are improved. Though direct comparisons between theoretical results and experimental data are desired for validation purposes, such comparisons are not always possible due to lack of data. In this work, two uncertainty metrics are introduced that are suitable for validating theoretical models against sparse experimental databases. The nuclear physics models, NUCFRG2 and QMSFRG, are compared to an experimental database consisting of over 3600 experimental cross sections to demonstrate the applicability of the metrics. A cumulative uncertainty metric is applied to the question of overall model accuracy, while a metric based on the median uncertainty is used to analyze the models from the perspective of model development by analyzing subsets of the model parameter space.

Norman, Ryan B.↗

Scoping estimates of the LDEF satellite induced radioactivity

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite was recovered after almost six years in space. It was well-instrumented with ionizing radiation dosimeters, including thermoluminescent dosimeters, plastic nuclear track detectors, and a variety of metal foil samples for measuring nuclear activation products. The extensive LDEF radiation measurements provide the type of radiation environments and effects data needed to evaluate and help resolve uncertainties in present radiation models and calculational methods. A calculational program was established to aid in LDEF data interpretation and to utilize LDEF data for assessing the accuracy of current models. A summary of the calculational approach is presented. The purpose of the reported calculations is to obtain a general indication of: (1) the importance of different space radiation sources (trapped, galactic, and albedo protons, and albedo neutrons); (2) the importance of secondary particles; and (3) the spatial dependence of the radiation environments and effects expected within the spacecraft. The calculational method uses the High Energy Transport Code (HETC) to estimate the importance of different sources and secondary particles in terms of fluence, absorbed dose in tissue and silicon, and induced radioactivity as a function of depth in aluminum.

Armstrong, Tony W.↗

HZE reactions and data-base development

The primary cosmic rays are dispersed over a large range of linear energy transfer (LET) values and their distribution over LET is a determinant of biological response. This LET distribution is modified by radiation shielding thickness and shield material composition. The current uncertainties in nuclear cross sections will not allow the composition of the shield material to be distinguished in order to minimize biological risk. An overview of the development of quantum mechanical models of heavy ion reactions will be given and computational results compared with experiments. A second approach is the development of phenomenological models from semi-classical considerations. These models provide the current data base in high charge and energy (HZE) shielding studies. They will be compared with available experimental data. The background material for this lecture will be available as a review document of over 30 years of research at Langley but will include new results obtained over the last year.

Townsend, Lawrence W.↗

Relativistic Three-Dimensional Lippmann-Schwinger Cross Sections for Space Radiation Applications

Radiation transport codes require accurate nuclear cross sections to compute particle fluences inside shielding materials. The Tripathi semi-empirical reaction cross section, which includes over 60 parameters tuned to nucleon-nucleus (NA) and nucleus-nucleus (AA) data, has been used in many of the world’s best-known transport codes. Although this parameterization fits well to reaction cross section data, the predictive capability of any parameterization is questionable when it is used beyond the range of the data to which it was tuned. Using uncertainty analysis, it is shown that a relativistic Three- Dimensional Lippmann-Schwinger (LS3D) equation model based on Multiple Scatter- ing Theory (MST) that uses 5 parameterizations—3 fundamental parameterizations to nucleon-nucleon (NN) data and 2 nuclear charge density parameterizations—predicts NA and AA reaction cross sections as well as the Tripathi cross section parameterization for reactions in which the kinetic energy of the projectile in the laboratory frame (TLab) is greater than 220 MeV/n. The relativistic LS3D model has the additional advantage of being able to predict highly accurate total and elastic cross sections. Consequently, it is recommended that the relativistic LS3D model be used for space radiation applications in which TLab > 220 MeV/n.

C M Werneth↗

Analytical design and performance studies of the nuclear light bulb engine

Analytical studies were conducted to investigate in detail the heat balance characteristics of the nuclear light bulb engine. Distributions of energy deposition to all engine components from the fission process, conduction and convection, and thermal radiation were considered. Where uncertainties in basic data or heat transfer characteristics were encountered, ranges of heat loads were calculated and reference values were selected. The influence of these heat loads on engine performance, space radiator requirements, and cooling sequence and cooling circuit designs was determined. The analyses resulted in revisions to the previously reported reference engine characteristics, principally in the heat loads to some engine components and in the cooling sequence. These revisions were incorporated in the engine dynamics digital computer simulation program. No significant changes occurred in the dynamic response of the engine to perturbations in fuel injection rate, reactivity or exhaust nozzle area.

Rodgers, R. J.↗

Charge dependence and electric quadrupole effects on single-nucleon removal in relativistic and intermediate energy nuclear collisions

Single-nucleon removal in relativistic and intermediate energy nucleus-nucleus collisions is studied using a generalization of Weizsacker-Williams theory that treats each electromagnetic multipole separately. Calculations are presented for electric dipole and quadrupole excitations and incorporate a realistic minimum impact parameter, Coulomb recoil corrections, and the uncertainties in the input photonuclear data. Discrepancies are discussed. The maximum quadrupole effect to be observed in future experiments is estimated and also an analysis of the charge dependence of the electromagnetic cross sections down to energies as low as 100 MeV/nucleon is made.

NASA Discipline Number 04-10↗

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options study. Briefing material: Final review and executive summary

Advantages and disadvantages were assessed for configuration options for a modular 14' diameter space station, a modular aft cargo carrier and a shuttle derived vehicle. Early, intermediate, and mature configurations were defined as well as power requirements, heat rejection, hydrazine usage, and the external scavenging concept. Subsystems were analyzed for propulsion, attitude control, data processing, and communications. Areas of uncertainties, associated costs and benefits, and the cost by phase of the modular and shuttle derived vehicle configurations were identified. Technologies assessed included solar vs nuclear; gravity gradient vs active control; heat pipe radiators vs fluid loops; distributed processors vs centralized, and modular vs shuttle derived configuration. It was determined that the early space station architecture should include: (1) reusable OTV with aerobraking; (2) TMS with telepresence services; (3) OTV/TMS refueling and servicing capability; and (4) attached research laboratories for life sciences and materials processing.

Source record↗

Charge Dependence and Electric Quadrupole Effects on Single-Nucleon Removal in Relativistic and Intermediate Energy Nuclear Collisions

Single nucleon removal in relativistic and intermediate energy nucleus-nucleus collisions is studied using a generalization of Weizsacker-Williams theory that treats each electromagnetic multipole separately. Calculations are presented for electric dipole and quadrupole excitations and incorporate a realistic minimum impact parameter, Coulomb recoil corrections, and the uncertainties in the input photonuclear data. Discrepancies are discussed. The maximum quadrupole effect to be observed in future experiments is estimated and also an analysis of the charge dependence of the electromagnetic cross sections down to energies as low as 100 MeV/nucleon is made.

Norbury, John W.↗

Common Cause Failure Modeling in Space Launch Vehicles

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFs are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused for example by system environments, manufacturing, transportation, storage, maintenance, and assembly. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, they can be reduced, but are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and dependent CCF. Because common cause failure data is limited in the aerospace industry, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Team at Bastion Technology Inc. is estimating CCF risk using generic data collected by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Consequently, common cause risk estimates based on this database, when applied to other industry applications, are highly uncertain. Therefore, it is important to account for a range of values for independent and CCF risk and to communicate the uncertainty to decision makers. There is an existing methodology for reducing CCF risk during design, which includes a checklist of 40+ factors grouped into eight categories. Using this checklist, an approach to produce a beta factor estimate is being investigated that quantitatively relates these factors. In this example, the checklist will be tailored to space launch vehicles, a quantitative approach will be described, and an example of the method will be presented.

Hark, Frank↗

Radiation health for a Mars mission

Uncertainties in risk assessments for exposure of a Mars mission crew to space radiation place limitations on mission design and operation. Large shielding penalties are imposed in order to obtain acceptable safety margins. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are the major concern. A warning system and 'safe-haven' are needed to protect the crew from large SPE which produce lethal doses. A model developed at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to describe solar modulation of GCR intensities reduces that uncertainty to less than 10 percent. Radiation transport models used to design spacecraft shielding have large uncertainties in nuclear fragmentation cross sections for GCR which interact with spacecraft materials. Planned space measurements of linear energy transfer (LET) spectra behind various shielding thicknesses will reduce uncertainties in dose-versus-shielding thickness relationships to 5-10 percent. The largest remaining uncertainty is in biological effects of space radiation. Data on effects of energetic ions in human are nonexistent. Experimental research on effects in animals and cell is needed to allow extrapolation to the risk of carcinogenesis in humans.

Robbins, Donald E.↗

Nustar and Chandra Insight into the Nature of the 3-40 Kev Nuclear Emission in Ngc 253

We present results from three nearly simultaneous Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) and Chandra monitoring observations between 2012 September 2 and 2012 November 16 of the local star-forming galaxy NGC 253. The 3-40 kiloelectron volt intensity of the inner approximately 20 arcsec (approximately 400 parsec) nuclear region, as measured by NuSTAR, varied by a factor of approximately 2 across the three monitoring observations. The Chandra data reveal that the nuclear region contains three bright X-ray sources, including a luminous (L (sub 2-10 kiloelectron volt) approximately few × 10 (exp 39) erg per s) point source located approximately 1 arcsec from the dynamical center of the galaxy (within the sigma 3 positional uncertainty of the dynamical center); this source drives the overall variability of the nuclear region at energies greater than or approximately equal to 3 kiloelectron volts. We make use of the variability to measure the spectra of this single hard X-ray source when it was in bright states. The spectra are well described by an absorbed (power-law model spectral fit value, N(sub H), approximately equal to 1.6 x 10 (exp 23) per square centimeter) broken power-law model with spectral slopes and break energies that are typical of ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs), but not active galactic nuclei (AGNs). A previous Chandra observation in 2003 showed a hard X-ray point source of similar luminosity to the 2012 source that was also near the dynamical center (Phi is approximately equal to 0.4 arcsec); however, this source was offset from the 2012 source position by approximately 1 arcsec. We show that the probability of the 2003 and 2012 hard X-ray sources being unrelated is much greater than 99.99% based on the Chandra spatial localizations. Interestingly, the Chandra spectrum of the 2003 source (3-8 kiloelectron volts) is shallower in slope than that of the 2012 hard X-ray source. Its proximity to the dynamical center and harder Chandra spectrum indicate that the 2003 source is a better AGN candidate than any of the sources detected in our 2012 campaign; however, we were unable to rule out a ULX nature for this source. Future NuSTAR and Chandra monitoring would be well equipped to break the degeneracy between the AGN and ULX nature of the 2003 source, if again caught in a high state.

Chandra↗