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AI Model Benchmarking for Nonproliferation Applications: Steel Thread Benchmarking Task Force Technical Report (Rev. 2)

Steel Thread is a NA-22 venture that seeks to build trustworthy, reliable AI models that can be used in a wide variety of nonproliferation tasks. A key aspect of building these models is developing appropriate benchmarks and evaluation methods, which will enable the venture to identify and adapt models to provide the most value in the nonproliferation domain. Benchmarks must be relevant to key tasks in this domain, such as question answering, information retrieval, document summarization and classification, consensus analysis, and image and data analysis. This report 1) provides an overview of benchmark design, evaluation, and challenges; 2) reviews a variety of open benchmarks, with a focus on language models and tasks; and 3) identifies benchmarks that are most relevant to Steel Thread. This report is intended to serve as a basis for further efforts to classify and evaluate benchmarks and their correlation with success on nonproliferation-specific tasks. The Steel Thread venture has defined benchmarks to be a particular combination of a dataset (or datasets) and a metric (or metrics) conceptualized as representing one or more specific tasks or sets of abilities for a specific modality. It is adopted by a research community as a shared framework for comparing methods.1 It includes 1) Data: Labeled (a designated subset not used for training, which could be all the data), 2) Metric: A way to quantify performance, 3) Task/Ability: What the benchmark is testing, 4) Protocol: A structured and repeatable evaluation process, 5) Baseline/Reference Model: For comparison; could be statistical, rule-based, SME-derived, or another model, and 6) Maintenance Plan: to update with new information over time; important for long-term utility. For further clarity, the definition includes what a benchmark, in this context, is not. It is not a corpus of training data, specific to a model (it is intended to apply to a range of models), a universal evaluation of performance, a guarantee that the ‘top’ model on the leaderboard will be the best fit for every specific use case, an all-encompassing proof of a model’s universal quality, nor is it a one-size-fits-all measure of success. It does not cover every real-world constraint (like operational, ethical, or cost considerations), a systems integration test, or a unit test. This definition was inspired by and resulted from discussions within the Steel Thread Benchmarking Task Force. This group was formed to define what we would mean as a benchmark within Steel Thread but persisted as the need to develop a thorough understanding of the large and expanding existing benchmarking space. This technical report is a result of the group’s divide and conquer approach to exploring this space. The release of benchmarks might not be progressing as quickly as model development, but it is moving very fast, as many benchmarks quickly become saturated, when state-of-the-art models score so close to the benchmark’s ceiling that their results are virtually indistinguishable. At that point, the test no longer differentiates between new systems, so researchers usually stop reporting scores as the benchmark no longer informs about improvements from the next generation of models. In the OpenAI announcement of GPT-5, they reported results on six flagship public benchmarks (AIME 2025, SWE-bench Verified, Aider Polyglot, MMMU, HealthBench Hard, GPQA) but the full system-card covers roughly thirty-five separate evaluations, comprising hundreds of test task items in total. There have been some efforts to summarize benchmarks in specific fields, like for text-to-image generation, but these surveys have had a narrow methodology scope. Therefore, a comprehensive survey of all benchmarks or even all benchmarks that could be relevant to Steel Thread is outside of the scope of this report. We chose some specific benchmarks to investigate in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Survey of emerging nuclear data needs for nonproliferation applications with advanced reactors

Nuclear science plays a key role in non-proliferation activities supporting advanced reactor technologies. Nuclear data underpin predictions and interpretations of nuclear material behavior and signatures in reactor fuel production, use, transport, and storage. Advanced reactors provide new challenges compared to the current fleet of thermal fission reactors. This report consolidates reported nuclear data needs from representative workshops, conferences, and publications, identifying six themes for recommended future investments supporting non-proliferation and safeguards applications. While also identified as data needs, major fission product evaluations and (α,n) reactions were omitted as there are ongoing activities producing new data under NA22/Objective O. Each theme is summarized below with example data and association with the nonproliferation mission for advanced fuels and reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Evaluation of additive manufacturing side channels for nuclear nonproliferation applications

The nuclear industry is continuing to grow and adopt new technologies to manufacture components. One of the technologies under consideration is additive manufacturing (AM). AM could make production of components at lower cost and could lessen lead times significantly. However, AM could be prone to proliferation risks. AM machines give off signatures during the manufacturing process, and these signatures offer an alternative means of observing the component. Correlations between these signatures and the geometry being manufactured could be developed; enabling proliferators as they could take advantage of these correlations to steal AM manufacturing instructions relating to nuclear technology. This work pertains to preliminary work exploring the feasibility of tapping into AM side channels to predict geometries being manufactured on AM machines. The feasibility of utilizing vibration to draw geometric correlations will be assessed on an Ultimaker 2 + thermoplastic 3D printer.

Additive manufacturing

Detector Materials Scoping Study: Research and Development Recommendations

Radiation detection materials have a unique role in many nuclear security missions. The variety of different applications requires the use of different materials whose characteristics are determined by the specific application requirements. While baseline capabilities have been established to use radiation detection in these applications, the potential to greatly advance those capabilities still exists through the development of superior radiation detection materials and/or the development of new materials that enable new technologies to be implemented more effectively. In 2024 the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) Near Field Detection Portfolio charged a detector materials scoping study, composed of a group of radiation-detection materials subject matter experts, to produce a community-wide consensus view of the current state of radiation materials research and to set recommendations for expanded investment over a ten-year time frame. This scoping study sought to understand and document the landscape of how radiation detection materials are used, what characteristics drive the selection of various materials, and what developments are needed to drive the state of the art. To respond to this charge, the scoping study created three working groups, each focusing on a different topical area in radiation detection materials research - Semiconductor Materials, Inorganic Scintillators and Organic Scintillators - with the task to identify the current state of the art in materials research and to provide mission-relevant research and development recommendations. Each working group was chaired by two members of the project team with widely recognized expertise in the field. Solicitations were sent out to experts at the DOE national laboratories, industry, academia and federal government agencies to participate in these working groups. The working groups met at regular intervals throughout 2024 and early 2025, each delivering a technical roadmap designed to enable the pursuit of R&D more intensely on high-impact materials challenges and detector solutions that are deemed as the greatest strategic value to DNN R&D and its stakeholders. The roadmap is also intended to help communicate recommended programmatic priorities within DNN R&D and across the nonproliferation and research communities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Utilizing Time Reversal Ultrasonics to Detect the Removal of Nuclear Materials from Geological Repositories (FY26 Mid-Year)

Detecting unauthorized nuclear material removal from storage environments, such as geological repositories, is a critical safeguards task essential to ensuring the integrity and non-diversion of nuclear materials. However, this process is fraught with significant technical challenges. Storage configurations often involve tightly packed nuclear material containers or obstructed environments, making detection of removal events exceedingly difficult. Optical surveillance cameras, which are commonly used for monitoring, suffer from substantial limitations, including restricted coverage, reliance on line-of-sight measurements, and vulnerability to environmental conditions in certain storage scenarios. As the global inventory of monitored nuclear materials increases and storage configurations become more complex— such as deep geological repositories, inaccessible storage vaults, and tightly packed containers—there is an urgent need for innovative detection technologies that can reliably identify unauthorized diversion events in these challenging environments. The challenge of detecting nuclear material removal in complex storage environments is both significant and urgent. Preventing unauthorized access, diversion, or tampering with nuclear materials is a cornerstone of global nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation efforts. Current detection methods are increasingly inadequate as storage configurations become more intricate and inaccessible. The limitations of existing technologies—such as their inability to detect changes behind obstructions, reliance on costly and labor-intensive processes, and vulnerability to environmental conditions—pose risks to the effectiveness of safeguards systems. Addressing this challenge is critical to maintaining international trust in nuclear safeguards frameworks and ensuring compliance with nonproliferation agreements. Our project builds on the proven concept of TRU technology that can address this unmet need. TRU has demonstrated exceptional spatial sensitivity and change detection capabilities in complex non-line-ofsight environments, making it uniquely suited for detecting unauthorized nuclear material removal in challenging storage configurations. Unlike optical methods, TRU is not limited by line-of-sight constraints or environmental conditions, enabling reliable detection of subtle alterations even behind obstructions. By leveraging TRU’s ability to identify removal or tampering events, we aim to develop a robust detection system that enhances safeguards in geological repositories, storage vaults, and other complex environments.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P

Producing 236 U reference standards for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry at the University of Notre Dame

36 U is a rare isotope of uranium, naturally occurring in ores with an abundance of 236 U/ 238 U$<$ 1 x 10 -9 . The ability to detect it and make isotopic ratio measurements has applications ranging from nuclear forensics and nonproliferation to energy production and environmental protection. Currently, Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) is the only technique sensitive enough to accurately measure 236 U/ 238 U isotopic ratios as they exist in naturally occurring ores in the range of 236 U/ 238 U = 10 -12 $-$ 10 -9 . Some AMS facilities have demonstrated their capabilities to make these measurements. Historically, the lack of commercially available reference standards covering the range of naturally occurring 236 U/ 238 U abundances has necessitated the use of absolute measurements, notoriously difficult to do using AMS, resulting in increased uncertainties in measurements and a reliance on knowledge of systematic effects. To mitigate these issues, various AMS facilities have sought to develop their own reference standards. Using a reference standard prepared for other forms of mass spectrometry, a series of AMS suitable standards was created through dilution with low-background natural uranium. The techniques used to produce and characterize these materials as well as analysis of them using AMS will be discussed.

236U

Machine Learning–Augmented Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for Spectral Discrimination of Iron Oxalates

Enhanced characterization and phase identification of post-PUREX Pu Oxalates (PuOXA) are pivotal for nonproliferation and pre-detonation nuclear forensics. Despite significant advances in the characterization of PuO 2 samples, little is known about the impact of both the chemical structure and oxidation states of PuOXA (i.e., Pu(III) and Pu(IV)) have on optical emission signatures. Here, we demonstrate the analytical capabilities of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) applied to Fe(II) and Fe(III) oxalate samples as surrogates for PuOXA, highlighting the discriminating features in the LIBS emission spectra arising from differences in the oxidation states within mixed FeOXA samples. We report the enhancement of spectral feature selection using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which enables the analytical superiority of machine learning algorithms such as Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest Regression (RFR) over conventional univariate techniques for phase discrimination and chemometric analysis. Cluster analysis revealed how both matrix effects and laser ablation influence cluster separability by introducing spectral artifacts that misdirect the maximization of variance. PCA-selected emission lines were used in the regression models, demonstrating that both univariate and multivariate linear regression models (i.e., PLSR and SVR) can achieve acceptable performance, with machine learning models outperforming conventional calibration regressions. Furthermore, the application of non-linearly activated PCA-selected emission lines illustrates how simplifying the data while retaining captured variance enables the use of less complex and more computationally efficient models. Furthermore, this is particularly evident in the underperformance of RFR, which suffers from increased computational costs and overfitting owing to its high complexity.

Oxalates

Shielding an Infrasound Sensor for INL’s Fuel Conditioning Facility

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been pyroprocessing spent fuel from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II). This process occurs in the Fuel Conditioning Facility (FCF) which houses the treatment of DOE-owned sodium-bonded metal fuel. The electrometallurgical methods used in FCF treat the spent fuel from EBR-II for recycling of the uranium. The radiation field present inside FCF throughout the pyroprocessing stages affects any electronic sensors and devices that may be used for research. An example of such device is a seismoacoustic sensor which detects sound and vibration waves from the equipment in the facility. Seismoacoustic sensors are of interest to research nonproliferation techniques.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN

Frictionless knowledge injection for few-shot learning

Cutting-edge machine learning methods often require large volumes of curated training data, precluding their use in national security problems with rare events in massive datasets. We present a method for incorporating abstract knowledge into models tailored for sparse data. A subject matter expert defines salient concepts using data examples, which are encoded in the model’s embedding space. Models are then trained to respect these concepts. This method enables knowledge injection, yielding effective models with limited labeled data and the ability to assess model sensitivity for subject matter expertise across the nonproliferation mission space, as demonstrated with Raman spectra analysis.

Stomps, Jordan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178114479)

Performance of a dynamic single bubbler in single and two-phase immiscible liquids

Ensuring nonproliferation and safeguards of special nuclear materials (SNM) is a critical aspect of advancing the nuclear fuel cycle. Traditional bubbler systems used to estimate liquid levels and densities in nuclear recycling processes have limitations, particularly in harsh environments where dip-tube corrosion and buildup necessitate frequent maintenance and recalibration. This study explores the Dynamic Single Bubbler (DSB) method, which utilizes a single dip-tube attached to a linear actuator to estimate liquid properties dynamically. This approach is extended to estimate liquid-liquid interfaces in immiscible liquids and employs a linear regression method to reduce uncertainties and improve accuracy. The DSB method achieved density estimate uncertainties of less than 0.5% and surface level estimate uncertainties typically under 0.5%, across various fluids including water, acetone, methanol, mineral oil, glycerol, and aqueous salt solutions. Results indicate that the DSB method provides accurate and robust estimates of liquid density and surface levels with minimal maintenance and without the need for calibration. Additionally, the method's applicability to immiscible liquids and various dip-tube geometries was demonstrated, showing promise for widespread use in nuclear and other industrial applications.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL

Angular-spectral filtering of recoil protons for optimization of fast neutron imaging employing proton converters

Fast neutron imaging is an important capability for diverse applications such as inertial confinement fusion diagnostics, cargo security, nuclear nonproliferation and arms control, and industrial inspection. Traditional phosphor image plates can be enhanced for fast neutron imaging using hydrogenous plastic converters which allow fast neutrons to scatter off hydrogen nuclei to produce energetic protons that can be recorded by the image plate. However, protons emitted by image plates are not constrained in their emission angle, which contributes to the blur of the resulting image. Here, we investigate two methods that can alter the spatial extent of converted protons that deposit energy in the image plate: reducing the converter thickness, and introducing a proton filter between the plastic converter and image plate to reduce the contribution of lower-energy, off-axis protons to the image. Here we determine the optimal plastic converter thickness for maximizing the signal intensity to be 2–3 mm through Monte Carlo simulations, and we benchmark this result against experimental measurements with a deuterium-tritium (DT) neutron generator. Next, we evaluate the image smearing and signal loss for various converters to show that solely reducing the converter thickness has the expected effect of reducing the blur from proton image smearing of the sharpness of an edge recorded on the image plate at the cost of reducing the signal intensity. The use of a proton filter is shown to achieve a similar improvement of edge sharpness as reducing the converter thickness while also sacrificing the signal intensity. We conclude that the use of proton energy filtering can improve the sharpness of fast neutron images in situations where the converter thickness cannot be reduced below some practical minimum. For more intense neutron sources, the signal intensity is of less concern, and optimizing the resolution of the image plate and therefore of the imaging system could have greater value. In these applications, proton filters may allow for improved fast neutron imaging measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Impact of light output on the timing resolution of organic glass scintillator bars in a dual-ended readout configuration

The effectiveness of detector system modeling and validation depends on the quality of characterization performed on the system. For nuclear nonproliferation applications, which require detectors to address complex and variable field conditions, access to accurate system models is essential. This study presents the timing characterization of organic glass scintillator bars used in an imaging system developed at the University of Michigan. 137 Cs and 60 Co gamma-ray sources were used to determine the coincidence time resolution as a function of measured light output for two Compton scatter events between two organic glass scintillator bars. Timing resolution for two events, each with light output ranging from 100 to 1100 keVee were characterized. The resulting data were fit to a parametric function that was validated to agree with experimental results within ±25 ps. Simulations were performed to establish appropriate calibration points for each organic scintillator, thereby ensuring accurate calibration of light output values during analysis. This work successfully characterized the light output dependence of the coincidence timing resolution of a pair of organic glass detectors for use in an imaging system. Depending on the amount of scintillation light output from the events, the full width at half maximum of the measured coincidence time resolution ranged from 653.2 ± 16.1 ps for low light yields, 100 keVee, to 121.0 ± 8.4 ps for higher yields at 1100 keVee. The insights obtained from the timing resolution behavior will allow for accurate simulation capabilities in future security and verification efforts using scatter-based imaging systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

A simulation pipeline for fast neutron imaging and spectroscopy using quantified detector attributes

Radiation imaging capabilities, essential in the nuclear nonproliferation regime, facilitate source localization and, in certain cases, spectroscopy. Scatter-based neutron cameras, which can measure the neutron signatures from special nuclear material, hold particular interest. Systems incorporating organic scintillators can extract neutron energy spectra, potentially distinguishing fission neutron sources from others, such as alpha-neutron sources. The development and testing of a scatter-based neutron imager, however, can be challenging without having an accurate simulation model or first constructing a prototype. This work describes a simulation pipeline that takes output from MCNPX-PoliMi simulations and creates the expected back-projection neutron images and neutron energy spectra. This pipeline was developed to improve the modeling of fast neutron imagers and bridge the current gap in literature, which predominantly focuses on gamma-ray Compton imager models. This work also reports on the significance of various real-world system considerations and their effects on the simulated detector responses. The pipeline was verified and validated with experimental data collected using a 252 Cf spontaneous fission source using a fast neutron scattering imager developed at the University of Michigan.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Chemometrics and visible diffuse reflectance spectroscopy to classify plutonium dioxide

Diffuse reflectance (DR) spectra in the Vis-NIR (∼380–1050 nm) region were acquired for a series of PuO 2 samples with a spot size of about 10 × 10 μm. Two batches of six PuO 2 samples, synthesized approximately 7.5 months apart, were prepared using both Pu(III) and Pu(IV) oxalate precursors at three distinct calcination temperatures (450, 650, and 950 °C). This yielded a total of 12 PuO 2 samples and 433 DR spectra. The DR spectrum of PuO 2 contained numerous peaks in the visible region, and characteristic features were identified with respect to calcination temperature and chemistry. A distinct peak multiplet near 615 nm was observed for samples prepared at low calcination temperatures, and a peak near 660 nm was observed for higher calcination temperatures. A multivariate classification strategy based on principal component analysis (PCA) was developed to distinguish PuO 2 calcination temperatures of 450, 650, and 950 °C with 100 % accuracy. Classification results also indicate the potential to distinguish chemical processing history (i.e., Pu(III) or Pu(IV)) based on the spectra with 72 % accuracy based on k-nearest neighbors applied to the PCA scores. Partial least squares discriminant analysis was used to identify variation among batches with 88 % accuracy and found that peaks near 669, 681, 811, and 970 nm were the most useful for predicting the batch identity. Here, this work demonstrates how micro-diffuse reflectance spectroscopy and chemometrics can be used to classify PuO 2 processing history based on Vis-NIR spectral features. Combining the chemometric approach with mapping sequences could provide a rapid, nondestructive approach to classify Pu oxide materials for environmental, forensics, and nonproliferation applications.

Actinide