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Event Report for The Ethical Artificial Intelligence Quantification Workshop

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a powerful emerging technology area which requires special attention to using it ethically. AI ethics is still an emerging field, and the partners for this workshop and report seek to move AI ethics discussion ahead by experimenting with ways to measure AI ethics criteria. The following document describes the outcomes and learnings from The Ethical Artificial Intelligence Quantification Workshop held at the National Institute for Aerospace (NIA), Hampton, Virginia on May 12th, 2022. The purpose of the workshop was for participants to evaluate and experiment-with the methodology and process presented by AIEthics.World in cooperation with Intel Corporation. The meeting participants learned about the Ethical AI Certification and Maturity Model™ and applied the methodology to selected notional AI systems. The workshop facilitated the evaluation of the maturity of the AI system according to ethical considerations relevant to NASA, NIA and other participants. The workshop consisted of three main phases. The first phase focused on understanding and summarizing NASA’s ethical approaches, mission and values based on published documentation, discussions and individual insights & opinions of participants. This information was prioritized, weighted, ordered, and quantified in phase two, to formulate an alignment between human values (ethics) and their applicability to AI systems during all lifecycle phases. The first two phases were summarized as a form of ethical genealogy for artificial intelligence, specific to NASA’s ethical approaches. In the third and last phase of the workshop the participants evaluated notional examples of artificial intelligence to qualify and quantify its ability to adhere to the organizational ethics approaches, using the Ethical AI Certification and Maturity Model™. The workshop uses the concept of genealogy, in the traditional sense: the study and traceability of lines of ancestors in the process of evolutionary development from earlier forms. However, as it is applied to an Ethical AI definition, it is providing the insights to the necessary and mandatory traceability of content, data, metrics, telemetry, elements, and structures which are used in the AI’s lifecycle to foster and measure AI ethics in all steps of its lifecycle. The Ethical Artificial Intelligence Quantification Workshop provided NASA with the opportunity to apply the Ethical AI Certification and Maturity Model™, in combination with existing and well-known decision-making and quality control methods to identify the metrics and measurements for an Ethical AI and assess its ethical condition and quality aligned with NASA ethics approaches. The result of the workshop is the capacity for NASA to apply the maturity model assessment to its AI Systems as desired and if necessary, publish the ability of these AI Systems to adhere to the organizational ethical goals. AI ethics frameworks need to be customized for each application domain, for example, individual NASA Mission Directorates. General principles that work in one area such as AI/Machine Learning-based text analysis (the ethics of information-extraction) may need to be adapted for another such as sense-and-avoid decision-making in a flight environment. The workshop was conducted among approximately twenty NASA subject matter experts, so the elements noted above should be considered examples, not definitive NASA ethical AI principles, genealogy, etc. Generating a definitive AI ethics framework for an organization as diverse as NASA would require far more discussion, debate, review, etc. However, the workshop provided valuable insight into mechanisms and processes for quantifying AI ethical qualities.

Artificial Intelligence↗

The crystallography of lunar troilite

Crystallography of euhedral singe crystals from lunar troilite indicating hexagonal forms consistent with high temperature NiAs type structure

Evans, H. T., Jr.↗

Study of sulfospinels

Several new compounds with the formula AB2S4 were synthesized. Pressure-induced polymorphism of the sulfospinels was investigated. Sulfospinels which produced new high-pressure phases were NiRh2S4, FeYb2S4, In2S3, CrIn2S4, NiIn2S4, CoIn2S4 and MnIn2S4. The only sulfospinels which transformed to the NiAs derivatives were those in which A and B atoms had unfilled d-orbitals. P-T phase relations were investigated for a series of sulfochromites. Thin films of several ACr2S4 sulfospinels were prepared by a flash evaporization technique on the (111) and (100) planes of NaCl and on the (100) plane of Mgo.

Tressler, R. E.↗

Conference on Correlations of Aging and Space Effects on Biosystems, Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 1989, Proceedings

This volume includes papers on correlations between aging effects and space effects on biosystems, with particular attention given to the effects on the cardiovascular system, bone, sleep, cellular systems, immunological system, and genetics. Papers are presented on NASA and NIA plans and opportunities, the age effect on the posture and circulation, the cardiovascular physiology in space flight, and age-related bone changes. Attention is given to research on sleep, circulation rhythms, and aging and its applications to manned spaceflight; sleep and circadian rhythms; altered cell function in microgravity; and the heterogeneity of changes in lymphoproliferative ability with increasing age. Also included is a review of cellular immunosenescence, a paper on the immune response during space flight, and a paper on Caenorhabditis elegans as a model system for space biology studies.

Sprott, Richard L.↗

The effect of gravity on the combustion synthesis of Ni-Al and Ni3Al-TiB2 composites from elements

Previous studies on the combustion synthesis of advanced materials indicate that combustion and structure formation mechanisms involve several stages including melting of reactants and products, spreading of the melt, droplet coalescence, diffusion and convection, buoyancy of solid particles, and densification of the liquid product. Most of these processes are affected by gravity. Conducting the combustion synthesis under microgravity conditions is expected to help elucidate the reaction mechanisms. Two systems were examined. The first involves Ni/AI cladded particles, which is an ideal system to examine the individual particle and liquid flow before combustion occurs. For comparison, elemental Ni and Al powders with the same stoichiometry as that of the cladded particles were also used in some experiments. The second system was the Ni3AITiB2 composite in which the Ni3AI (-delta H(sub f) = 153.1 kJ/mol) phase melts during reaction enabling us to examine settling of the liquid phase. The amount of liquid phase was controlled by varying the TiB2 (-delta H(sub f) = 323.8 kJ/mol) content which generates the additional heat. The overall reactions for the two systems can be expressed as follows. System 1: 4Ni + 2AI yields Ni3AI + NiA and System 2: 3Ni + Al + x (Ti + 2B) yields Ni3Al + x(TiB2). For the first system, pellets were pressed directly from the cladded particles, at green densities about 77 +/- 3% of theoretical value. For the second, the pellets were prepared by mixing the elemental reactant powders in the required stoichiometry by ball-milling and then pressing uniaxially at green densities about 70 +/- 3 percent of theoretical. The pellets were cylindrical in shape, 10 mm in diameter and length typically 20-30 mm. The pellet samples were reacted in UHP Argon (1 atm) using the experimental setup and procedure described previously. After reaction, the samples were sectioned axially in order to conduct the microstructural analysis in the longitudinal direction. The phase composition of the reacted product was determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and the microstructure was analyzed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) along with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDX).

Varma, Arvind↗

Aging and space flight: findings from the University of Pittsburgh

For more than a decade, the Sleep and Chronobiology Center (SCC) at the University of Pittsburgh has received funding from the National Institute on Aging (NIA), the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in order to study the sleep and circadian rhythms of healthy older people, as well as the sleep and circadian rhythms of astronauts and cosmonauts. We have always been struck by the strong synergism between the two endeavors. What happens to the sleep and circadian rhythms of people removed from the terrestrial time cues of Earth is in many ways similar to what happens to people who are advancing in years. Most obviously, sleep is shorter and sleep depth is reduced, but there are also more subtle similarities between the two situations, both in circadian rhythms and in sleep, and in the adaptive strategies needed to enhance 24h zeitgebers.

STS-78 Shuttle Project↗

NASA Langley's Formal Methods Research in Support of the Next Generation Air Transportation System

This talk will provide a brief introduction to the formal methods developed at NASA Langley and the National Institute for Aerospace (NIA) for air traffic management applications. NASA Langley's formal methods research supports the Interagency Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) effort to define and develop the 2025 Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS). The JPDO was created by the passage of the Vision 100 Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act in Dec 2003. The NGATS vision calls for a major transformation of the nation s air transportation system that will enable growth to 3 times the traffic of the current system. The transformation will require an unprecedented level of safety-critical automation used in complex procedural operations based on 4-dimensional (4D) trajectories that enable dynamic reconfiguration of airspace scalable to geographic and temporal demand. The goal of our formal methods research is to provide verification methods that can be used to insure the safety of the NGATS system. Our work has focused on the safety assessment of concepts of operation and fundamental algorithms for conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) and self- spacing in the terminal area. Formal analysis of a concept of operations is a novel area of application of formal methods. Here one must establish that a system concept involving aircraft, pilots, and ground resources is safe. The formal analysis of algorithms is a more traditional endeavor. However, the formal analysis of ATM algorithms involves reasoning about the interaction of algorithmic logic and aircraft trajectories defined over an airspace. These trajectories are described using 2D and 3D vectors and are often constrained by trigonometric relations. Thus, in many cases it has been necessary to unload the full power of an advanced theorem prover. The verification challenge is to establish that the safety-critical algorithms produce valid solutions that are guaranteed to maintain separation under all possible scenarios. Current research has assumed perfect knowledge of the location of other aircraft in the vicinity so absolute guarantees are possible, but increasingly we are relaxing the assumptions to allow incomplete, inaccurate, and/or faulty information from communication sources.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground-motion measurements were available. Development of a global tsunami-warning system utilizing an expanded network of coastal GPS stations was under consideration at the time of reporting the information for this article.

Song, Y. Tony↗

Adjoint-Based Methodology for Time-Dependent Optimal Control (AMTOC)

During the five years of this project, the AMTOC team developed an adjoint-based methodology for design and optimization of complex time-dependent flows, implemented AMTOC in a testbed environment, directly assisted in implementation of this methodology in the state-of-the-art NASA's unstructured CFD code FUN3D, and successfully demonstrated applications of this methodology to large-scale optimization of several supersonic and other aerodynamic systems, such as fighter jet, subsonic aircraft, rotorcraft, high-lift, wind-turbine, and flapping-wing configurations. In the course of this project, the AMTOC team has published 13 refereed journal articles, 21 refereed conference papers, and 2 NIA reports. The AMTOC team presented the results of this research at 36 international and national conferences, meeting and seminars, including International Conference on CFD, and numerous AIAA conferences and meetings. Selected publications that include the major results of the AMTOC project are enclosed in this report.

Yamaleev, Nail↗

Autogenic Feedback Training Exercise: Controlling Physiological Responses to Mitigate Motion Sickness

During space travel approximately 50 of the crew experience symptoms of motion sickness that can range from mild forms of nausea or dizziness to severe malaise and vomiting1. Developing an effective treatment for these symptoms has become a priority of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Autogenic-Feedback Training Exercise (AFTE) is a nonpharmacological countermeasure for mitigating motion sickness. It involves training subjects to control physiological responses in high stress environments2. The primary goal of this experiment is to evaluate the effectiveness of AFTE for increasing tolerance to motion sickness in high stress environments.

motion sickness↗

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗

Future Sea Level Change Under CMIP5 and CMIP6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Antarctica↗

Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi-Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change

Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in tidewater glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections that are used in the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal (<1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on decadal-scale (30 years) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries and investigate the impact of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an 39% underestimate or 25% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected, depending on bed slope and magnitude of oscillations. The bias is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Although omitting seasonal terminus motion may bias mass change projections of individual glaciers, further work is needed to investigate the impact on ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate numerical models. Note: Zip folder contains all videos listed in the supplemental document and can be downloaded for viewing.

D. Felikson↗

Modelling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet can be partitioned between surface mass balance and discharge due to ice dynamics through its marine-terminating outlet glaciers. A perturbation to a glacier terminus (e.g., a calving event) results in both an instantaneous response in velocity and mass loss and a diffusive response due to the evolution of ice thickness over time. This diffusive response means the total impact of a retreat event can take decades to be fully realized. Here we model the committed response of the Greenland Ice Sheet by applying perturbations to the marine-terminating glacier termini that represent recent observed changes, and simulating the response over the 21st century, while holding the climate forcing constant. The sensitivity of the ice sheet response to model parameter uncertainty is explored within an ensemble framework, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data is used to constrain the results using a Bayesian calibration approach. We find that the Greenland Ice Sheet's committed contribution to 21st century sea level rise is at least 33.5 [17.5 52.4] mm (25th and 75th percentiles in brackets), with at least 6 mm being attributable directly to terminus retreat that occurred between 2007 and 2015. The spread in our projections is driven by uncertainty in the basal friction coefficient. Our results complement the ISMIP6 Greenland projections, which report the ice sheet response to future forcing, excluding the background response. In this way, we can obtain estimates of Greenland's total contribution to sea level rise in 2100.

Isabel J. Nias↗