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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

A comparison of GLAS SAT and NMC high resolution NOSAT forecasts from 19 and 11 February 1976

A subjective comparison of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) and the National Meteorological Center (NMC) high resolution model forecasts is presented. Two cases where NMC's operational model in 1976 had serious difficulties in forecasting for the United States were examined. For each of the cases, the GLAS model forecasts from initial conditions which included satellite sounding data were compared directly to the NMC higher resolution model forecasts, from initial conditions which excluded the satellite data. The comparison showed that the GLAS satellite forecasts significantly improved upon the current NMC operational model's predictions in both cases.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Use of an OSSE to Evaluate Background Error Covariances Estimated by the 'NMC Method'

The NMC method has proven utility for prescribing approximate background-error covariances required by variational data assimilation systems. Here, untunedNMCmethod estimates are compared with explicitly determined error covariances produced within an OSSE context by exploiting availability of the true simulated states. Such a comparison provides insights into what kind of rescaling is required to render the NMC method estimates usable. It is shown that rescaling of variances and directional correlation lengths depends greatly on both pressure and latitude. In particular, some scaling coefficients appropriate in the Tropics are the reciprocal of those in the Extratropics. Also, the degree of dynamic balance is grossly overestimated by the NMC method. These results agree with previous examinations of the NMC method which used ensembles as an alternative for estimating background-error statistics.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS1988

NMC stratospheric analyses during the 1987 Antarctic expedition

Stratospheric constant pressure analyses of geopotential height and temperature, produced as part of regular operations at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), were used by several participants of the Antarctic Ozone Expedition. A brief decription is given of the NMC stratospheric analyses and the data that are used to derive them. In addition, comparisons of the analysis values at the locations of radiosonde and aircraft data are presented to provide indications for assessing the representativeness of the NMC stratospheric analyses during the 1987 Antarctic winter-spring period.

Gelman, Melvyn E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Evaluation and use of TOVS retrievals at NMC

In a current analysis procedure at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), a first guess analysis (from the latest 6 or 12 hour forecast) is updated by new data. In the newest analysis procedures, which are based on optimum interpolation, the observational correction depends on the size of preassigned, expected observational errors versus the size of expected errors in the first guess forecast. In the case of Northern Hemisphere ocean temperatures, the latter are around 2 degrees. The infrared satellite retrievals have a similar size "error". If (as assumed) their errors are uncorrelated with the first guess error, they will improve the analysis. The larger errors of the microwave retrievals, however, mean that they will be given little weight in the analysis. An evaluation of the TIROS-N retrievals is currently underway at NMC to determine the impact of satellite derived data within operational analysis schemes, to isolate possible problems within current retrieval methods, and to offer possible solutions for these problems.

Phillips, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts

The systematic error in the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) medium-range operational forecasts of the global divergence during 1987 and 1988 is examined in this study. As in other operational NWP models the NMC model has too weak an annual mean, annual cycle, and 30-60 day oscillation. This weakness shows up after only a few days, especially over the monsoon region and tropical areas. When the intraseasonal oscillation amplitude is large the model predictive skill is improved. The eastward propagation of the low-frequency mode is well predicted throughout the 10-day forecast period. The north-south migration of the tropical Hadley circulation, depicted primarily by the annual-cycle mode, is also weaker although the phase pattern predicted by the MRF is consistent with analyses.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗
NASA NTRS1992

Tropical intraseasonal oscillation and its prediction by the NMC operational model

Results are presented of an investigation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and its impact on the extended-range forecast in the NMC operational model during Phase II (14 December 1986-31 March 1987) of the Dynamical Extended Range Forecast. Based on principal component analysis of the velocity potential and streamfunction, evidence was found of tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the ISO. The NMC model possess significant forecast skills for the principal streamfunction and velocity potential modes up to the first ten days. Results of the error growth analysis suggest that the principal modes of velocity potential have large errors comparable to the model random errors. By comparison, the initial errors in the streamfunction are much smaller. The error growth for both tropical and extratropical modes are found to be significantly suppressed during periods of strong ISO relative to periods of weak ISO. The increase in extratropical forecast skill is likely due to (1) the model's ability to better capture ISO signals in the tropics and (2) the increased coupling between the tropics and extratropics during periods of strong ISO.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A comparison of NMC and GWC analysis field temperatures with aircraft measurements

Comparison between in situ aircraft observations of temperature and National Meteorological Center and Global Weather Central analysis fields of temperature is presented for a continental and oceanic flight route. The standard deviations of the temperature differences over several hundred flights are found to be 2.5 and 3.5 C for the continental and oceanic route, respectively. A bias towards warm temperatures of about 0.85 C for the analysis fields was found for the oceanic route. Only small differences are found between the NMC and GWC analysis field temperatures.

Jasperson, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Five year global dataset: NMC operational analyses (1978 to 1982)

This document describes procedures used in assembling a five year dataset (1978 to 1982) using NMC Operational Analysis data. These procedures entailed replacing missing and unacceptable data in order to arrive at a complete dataset that is continuous in time. In addition, a subjective assessment on the integrity of all data (both preliminary and final) is presented. Documentation on tapes comprising the Five Year Global Dataset is also included.

Straus, David↗
NASA NTRS1989

A reduced version of the NMC DERF 2 data set

The National Meterological Center (NMC) Dynamical Extended Range Forecast (DERF 2) data represents a major computational effort to better ascertain the potential for extended range forecasts and to develop a strategy for performing operational extended range forecasts using dynamical models. A major stumbling block for using this data has been the sheer volume of data that must be processed to perform even simple calculations. The product of the data reduction described is a manageable data set that fits comfortably on five magnetic tapes or on one compact disc. The document outlines the data reduction process of the second phase of DERF data. It contains the description of the fields and the resolution of both the original and final fields. In order to assist the users of this data set, maps of selected fields, using both the original truncation at rhomboidal 30 and the truncation of the final data at triangular 20, are displayed.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1988

A simulation of the winter and summer circulations with the NMC Global Spectral Model

The medium range forecast model of the NMC has been integrated to produce winter and summer simulations. It is found that the model climatology is similar to that of the observed atmosphere as well as climatologies of other general circulation models. The stationary and transient features of the model circulation are described, including both tropical and extratropical regions. The model hydrological cycle, radiative balance, and surface heat budget are discussed. Comparison with observations shows that the model is colder than that observed in the troposphere and cools in the lower stratosphere in the tropics and near the poles in both simulations. It is suggested that the upper branch of the Hadley cell is poorly simulated in the integrated model. The simulations are in reasonable agreement with the observations in sea level pressure, the structure of the tropospheric zonal jets, and the winter hemispheric stationary waves.

Kinter, J. L., III↗
NASA NTRS1988

Statistical corrections to the NMC medium range 700 mb height forecasts

This paper examines four statistical procedures for correcting the NMC medium-range forecast (MRF) errors in the 700-mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere. The tests were designed to include normal operational constraints, such as frequent changes in the forecast model and the lack of long-term forecast histories on which to base estimates of systematic errors and climate drifts. It was found that the two statistical procedures which provided a substantial reduction in mean square error were a procedure based on simple regression correction at each grid point and one based on lagged-average correction with one day lag at each grid point.

Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Use of GEMPAK at NMC

This paper considers the use of the General Meteorological Package (GEMPAK) system developed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The interactive capabilites included in the GEMPAK are examined, and the changes of GEMPACK necessary for the accommodation of the large volume of gridded NMC data are discussed. Some preliminary results are presented.

Petersen, Ralph A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Predictions of zonal wind and angular momentum by the NMC medium-range forecast model during 1985-89

This paper investigates the quality of weather predictions of the atmosphere's relative angular momentum (M) made by the most recent version of the NMC medium-range forecast model (MRF88) during December 1985-1989. It was found that, compared with older versions of MRF, bias errors in the MRF88 forecasts of M became more prominent, while random errors were not affected. Both types of errors in the M forecasts could be traced to problems with forecasts in the zonal mean zonal wind in the tropics.

Rosen, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The stratospheric 4-day wave in NMC data

The observed characteristics of the 4-day eastward-moving wave 1 in the Southern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere are surveyed using ten years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) geopotential height data. The 4-day wave is shown to be an ubiquitous feature in the Southern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere and is usually prominent during July and August. Growth of the 4-day wave is characterized by two types of structures. Some episodes exhibit NW to SE phase tilts and a single high-latitude maximum. Others show NE to SW phase tilts during growth and a high-latitude maximum out of phase with a secondary lower-latitude maximum. Stability analyses show that all characteristics of the first type of episode are consistent with barotropic instability of the stratospheric polar night jet. Analyses of climatological fields suggest that characteristics of the second type of episode may be consistent with barotropic instability of the double-peaked mesospheric jet.

Manney, Gloria L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Impact of increased TOVS signal on the NMC global spectral model - A tropical-plume case study

Temperature and moisture signals are extracted from operationally available TOVS channel radiances for a tropical plume that developed over the North Pacific in January 1989, and are inserted into the NMC's operational medium-range forecast model. Several 48-h forecasts are made to test the impact of the additional information. It is shown, at least within a single tropical plume event, that there is still unutilized information within operational TOVS satellite observations. This information resides in the moisture channels and within small-amplitude, but horiontally coherent, thermal features. Perturbed upper-tropospheric relative humidity patterns are smoother and more consistent with satellite imagery than is the historical forecast.

Mcguirk, James P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of the 2-day wave in NMC stratospheric analyses

Observational characteristics of the 2-day wave, a westward-propagating zonal wave 3 oscillation in the summer subtropical upper stratosphere and mesosphere, are studied based on five years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) operational stratospheric analyses. These data show episodic occurrence of the 2-day wave in the upper stratosphere in January (centered near 20 deg S) and July - August (centered near 20 deg N). These episodes are strongly correlated with observed reversals of the zonal mean potential vorticity gradient near the core of the summer easterly jet, consistent with previous suggestions that the 2-day wave is generated by an in situ instability of this jet. On the other hand, the horizontal and vertical structure of the waves is very similar to that calculated by Salby for a global normal-mode Rossby wave. The combination of normal-mode structure and instability signature suggests that the 2-day wave is a near-resonant mode forced by dynamical instability.

Randel, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stratospheric aerosol acidity, density, and refractive index deduced from SAGE 2 and NMC temperature data

Water vapor concentrations obtained by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 (SAGE 2) and collocated temperatures provided by the National Meteorological Center (NMC) from 1986 to 1990 are used to deduce seasonally and zonally averaged acidity, density, and refractive index of stratospheric aerosols. It is found that the weight percentage of sulfuric acid in the aerosols increases from about 60 just above the tropopause to about 86 at 35 km. The density increases from about 1.55 to 1.85 g/cu cm between the same altitude limits. Some seasonal variations of composition and density are evident at high latitudes. The refractive indices at 1.02, 0.694, and 0.532 micrometers increase, respectively, from about 1.425, 1.430, and 1.435 just above the tropopause to about 1.445, 1.455, and 1.458 at altitudes above 27 km, depending on the season and latitude. The aerosol properties presented can be used in models to study the effectiveness of heterogeneous chemistry, the mass loading of stratospheric aerosols, and the extinction and backscatter of aerosols at different wavelengths. Computed aerosol surface areas, rate coefficients for the heterogeneous reaction ClONO2 + H2O yields HOCl + HNO3 and aerosol mass concentrations before and after the Pinatubo eruption in June 1991 are shown as sample applications.

Yue, G. K.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Comparison of UKMO and NMC Stratospheric Analyses During Northern and Southern Winter

Instruments on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite have been measuring stratospheric temperatures, winds, and constituent species since September 1991. Among the correlative data that aid in interpreting this data are two sets of global meteorological analyses. Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), and the US National Meteorological Center (NMC) are discussed.

arctic antarctic atmosphere research satellite met↗