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NASA NTRS2023

NAIRAS Ionizing Radiation Model: Extension from Atmosphere to Space

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) model is a real-time, global, physics-based model originally developed to predict exposure from cosmic radiation to air travelers from both galactic and solar sources. A prototype operational NAIRAS model has provided tabular and graphical data products via its public web site for about ten years. A new version of the NAIRAS model has been developed that incorporates an extension of the model domain from the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment to the space radiation environment, with the addition of the trapped inner belt proton source and altitude-dependent and rigidity-dependent geomagnetic shielding of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) protons. New output products of differential and integral particle flux have been developed for the characterization of single-event effects (SEE), expanding the application of NAIRAS from human radiation exposure assessment to allowing end-users to quantify radiation environment risks to aviation and spacecraft microelectronic systems. The NAIRAS model has transitioned to prototype operations at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) where the model now operates in two modes: (1) real-time global predictions of the atmospheric radiation environment and (2) a run-on-request (RoR) service allowing the user to select a specific time period for the global dosimetric calculations, or to upload an aircraft, balloon, or spaceflight trajectory file to provide predictions of the dosimetric and particle flux quantities along the flight path. The new features of NAIRAS version 3.0 are described in this paper and example results of the new output products for low-Earth orbit (LEO), medium-Earth orbit (MEO), and free-space radiation environments are presented

Christopher J. Mertens↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) With ISS Measurements

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) is a sophisticated physics-based model that has been providing real-time global predictions of cosmic radiation exposure, pertinent to both galactic and solar sources, to air travelers for a decade. The utility of NAIRAS, however, extends beyond the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. The recently developed NAIRAS 3.0 version demonstrates an expansion of its domain to the space radiation environment. This extension incorporates an additional trapped inner belt proton source, coupled with altitude-dependent and rigidity-dependent geomagnetic shielding for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) protons. The latest version of NAIRAS operates in two modes: real-time global predictions of the atmospheric radiation environment and a user-specified run-on-request service for global dosimetric calculations or predictions of dosimetric and particle flux quantities along user-uploaded flight path. It is available to the public at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In this work, we present the validation exercises that have been conducted using the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) onboard the International Space Station (ISS), thereby establishing NAIRAS's efficacy in predicting space radiation exposure. As such, NAIRAS 3.0 holds significant potential for human safety and technological advancement in aerospace travel and exploration.

Daniel Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effect of a SEP Event on Astronauts Doing a Spacewalk As Computed By the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) is a sophisticated physics-based model that has been providing real-time global predictions of cosmic radiation exposure, pertinent to both galactic and solar sources, to air travelers for a decade. The utility of NAIRAS, however, extends beyond the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. The recently developed NAIRAS 3.0 version demonstrates an expansion of its domain to the space radiation environment. This extension incorporates an additional trapped inner belt proton source, coupled with altitude-dependent and rigidity-dependent geomagnetic shielding for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) protons. The latest version of NAIRAS operates in two modes: real-time global predictions of the atmospheric radiation environment and a user-specified run-on-request service for global dosimetric calculations or predictions of dosimetric and particle flux quantities along user-uploaded flight path. It is available to the public at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In this work, we present the computations of the dose in the ISS vicinity during the SEP event of August 8, 2023; which happened a day before a scheduled spacewalk. We demonstrate that astronauts would not have suffered a dose equivalent in excess of 1 mSv if the event happened a day later. As such, NAIRAS 3.0 holds significant potential for human safety and technological advancement in aerospace travel and exploration.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Recent Improvements of the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) model is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure now running in real-time and in run on request (RoR) mode at NASA Goddard’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center. NAIRAS was recently updated to extend the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model to include ultra-heavy nuclei (Z=29-92, A=64-238) for single event effects assessment from high linear energy transfer processes, to expand the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity model to use the either the TS05 (Tsyganenko and Sitnov, 2005), T89 (Tsyganenko, 1989), or the International Geomagnetic Reference Field model (IGRF) magnetic field models, and to improve the solar energetic particle (SEP) proton spectral fitting to better represent relativist protons during ground level enhancements. Here, we evaluate the recent NAIRAS improvements for a range of conditions. First, we demonstrate the effect of choice in magnetic field model to the NAIRAS computed dosimetric quantities for a United States domestic flight and a transatlantic flight during the May 11, 2024 SEP event. Second, the effect of ultra-heavy ions on SEP dose rate is examined for two different flight trajectories during the top SEP events. Lastly, the effect of ultra-heavy ions on NAIRAS computed GCR dose rates at solar minimum and maximum is demonstrated.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model transition to the CCMC: real-time dosimetric output and low-Earth orbit applications

NASA’s Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is areal-time, global, physics-based model originally developed to predict exposure to cosmic radiation to air travelers from both galactic and solar sources. A prototype operational NAIRAS model has provided tabular and graphical data products via its public web site for a number of years. We present the advances in the transition of NAIRAS to operations at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, where global NAIRAS products are available for a real-time space weather version of the model. In addition, a runs-on-request version provides model output along user selected flight trajectories. We show the global dosimetric output from the model that are available in real-time as well as the new products developed to support commercial spaceflight missions to low-Earth orbit(LEO) and the International Space Station (ISS).

Guillaume Gronof↗
NASA NTRS2025

NAIRAS Version 3 Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation Validation: Comparisons to RaD-X Measurements

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) model predicts dosimetric and radiative flux quantities for assessing human radiation exposure levels and radiation effects on flight electronic systems from the surface of the Earth to deep space. NAIRAS version 3 includes many updates and improvements to the model. In this paper, NAIRAS version 3 dosimetric quantities are compared to observations of the atmospheric radiation environment taken during the Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X) flight campaign. The RaD-X campaign consisted of a high-altitude balloon flight, with altitudes up to 40 km, and four coordinated aircraft flights covering an altitude range from 6-20 km. The RaD-X measurement data from the different flight platforms were acquired in September 2015 and at nearly the same vertical cutoff rigidity (3-4 GV). High quality, flight-averaged measurement data were provided at seven altitudes, which correspond to regions of fundamentally different radiation transport and collisional interaction physics. The NAIRAS model agrees with the RaD-X measurements to within 30% over the entire altitude domain of the flight campaign (0-40 km), which is within the measurement uncertainty.

Christopher J Mertens↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of the May 2024 Gannon Storm on Low Earth Orbit Dosimetric Quantities: Comparisons of the NAIRAS Model -Real Time and Re-analysis- with ISS Data

The solar storm of May 2024, the Gannon storm, led to a display of aurora over the globe. One of the less known effects of that storm is on the radiation doses in low-Earth orbit: it first led to a Forbush decrease in dose rates and then to a Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event that increased the total dose suffered near the international space station. The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) model predicts dosimetric and radiative flux quantities for assessing human radiation exposure levels and radiation effects on flight electronic systems from the surface of the Earth to deep space. It runs in near-real-time at the CCMC, but also has a run-on-request that allows for a more precise computation thanks to carefully processed data. NAIRAS was able to compute the effects of the Gannon storm at the ISS in real-time and provide ideas of the doses encountered by the astronauts and the experiments in and outside of the station. In this work, we show the simulations of the doses encountered during the storm and compare them with several measurements at the ISS. This work shows the capabilities of NAIRAS to address the problem of the SEP events at low Earth orbit and its real-time capabilities.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model Nowcasting and Forecasting of the Aviation Radiation Environment

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) predicts dosimetric quantities for quantifying human radiation exposure and differential/integral flux/fluence quantities for assessing single event effects (SEE) in avionic systems from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), trapped inner belt protons, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events from the Earth’s surface to the space environment. Real-time predictions of the aviation radiation environment are available at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) data feeds and cygnets, and a run-on-request (RoR) capability has also been deployed at CCMC. Recent model improvements include a more accurate atmospheric ionizing radiation transport methodology and more robust and reliable SEP nowcast dose predictions. In addition, preliminary results of SEP dose forecasts are shown by coupling the University of Malaga Solar Energetic Particle (UMASEP) model of integral proton flux forecasts with the NAIRAS model. These model updates and improvements are presented, and results are shown for aircraft, high-latitude balloon, and low-Earth orbit flights during quiescent and solar-geomagnetic disturbed conditions. Model comparisons with flight measurements are also shown.

NAIRAS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model Updates and Improvements to the Prediction of the Ionizing Radiation Environment from the Earth's Surface to Geospace

- NAIRAS Model Description - Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) Model - Running in real-time on LaRC computer cluster since 2011, results hosted on Space Environment Technologies server/website - Running in real-time at CCMC since 2020 - Key Model Features - Global ionizing radiation environment model - Physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code - Real-time inclusion of solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation - Real-time solar-magnetospheric effects on radiation (cutoff model by Kress et al. [2004, 2010]) - New/Current Model Development - Improved SEP dose nowcast and forecast - Extend to low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment - Single-Event Effects (SEE) radiation risk assessment quantities - Run-on-Request (RoR) @ CCMC

Christopher J. Mertens↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Radiation Exposure at Aviation Flight Altitudes Using the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

Exposure to ionizing radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) at aircraft flight altitudes can have an adverse effect on human health. Although airline crews are classified as radiation workers by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), in most countries, their level of exposure is unquantified and undocumented throughout the duration of their career. As such, there is a need to assess pilot ionizing radiation exposure. The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS), a real-time global, physics-based model is used to assess such exposure. The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) measurement dataset consists of high latitude, high altitude, and long-duration aircraft flights between 2013-2021. Here, we characterize radiation exposure at aviation flight altitudes using the NAIRAS model and compare with over 800 flight trajectories from the ARMAS flight measurement inventory.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Radiation Exposure at Aviation Flight Altitudes Using the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

Exposure to ionizing radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles (SEP) at aircraft flight altitudes can have an adverse effect on human health. Although airline crews are classified as radiation workers by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), in most countries, their level of exposure is unquantified and undocumented throughout the duration of their career. As such, there is a need to assess pilot ionizing radiation exposure. The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS), a real-time, global, physics-based model is used to assess such exposure. The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) measurement dataset consists of high latitude, high altitude, and long-duration aircraft flights between 2013-2023. Here, we characterize radiation exposure at aviation flight altitudes using the NAIRAS model and compare with over 1000 flight trajectories from the ARMAS flight measurement inventory.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of the NAIRAS Trajectory Dose Model With ISS Measurements: Effects of Trapped Particles and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

The NAIRAS(Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation system) model was initially developed for fast computation of GCR and SEP events in the Earth's atmosphere. It was recently improved for computing the effects of trapped particles and its domain of validity was extended to the near space environments, which notably includes the international space station (ISS). To validate the new capabilities of the model, we compared its outputs with some measurements made in the ISS. Historical data contained several SEP events while newer measurements made with the ARMAS instrument flying in the experience bay of KIBO show the influence of trapped particles and GCR over the total dose received.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model Updates

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Aviation Radiation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X): High-Altitude Balloon Flight Mission for Improving the NAIRAS Model

The NASA Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X) high-altitude balloon mission was successfully launched from Fort Sumner, New Mexico USA on 25 September, 2015. Over 15 hours of science data were obtained from four dosimeters at altitudes above about 25 km. One of the main goals of the RaD-X mission is to improve aviation radiation model characterization of cosmic ray primaries by taking dosimetric measurements above the Pfotzer maximum before the production of secondary particles occurs. The second goal of the RaD-X mission is to facilitate the pathway toward real-time, data assimilative predictions of atmospheric cosmic radiation exposure by identifying and characterizing low-cost radiation measurement solutions.

Mertens, Christopher J.↗