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This report presents the results of a collaborative effort under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) program. The goal of the effort described in this report was to integrate the Dakota software with the NAERM software framework to demonstrate sensitivity analysis of a co-simulation for NAERM.
This document summarizes FY2023 work performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in support of the DOE Office of Electricity’s (OE) Advanced Grid Modeling (AGM) program, North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM), and Protective Relaying (PR) program.
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This report summarizes work done under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) Program. The specific task of interest described in this report is focused on sensitivity analysis of scenarios involving failures of both wind turbines and thermal generators under extreme cold-weather temperature conditions as would be observed in a Polar Vortex event.
This presentation examines the extreme cold weather event that affected the power system in Texas in February 2021. The Texas load-shedding events were caused by a combination of record-high demand and cold weather issues that reduced the output from all types of generation. While some wind turbines were shutting down due to cold temperatures and icing and a lack of cold-weather packages, hourly wind output was accurately predicted. Extreme weather events historically drive grid reliability. Additional examination of more extreme events is needed to understand their impacts on the power system. As a national lab, NREL has the capabilities and facilities to help the industry address these types of challenges. NREL also has significant simulation and analysis capabilities (such as NAERM) that can help understand the impacts of extreme events. NREL also developed the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) Research Platform, which enables evaluation of technologies that smooth grid operations during events like this.
Rapid wide-area assessments of vegetation encroachment on transmission and distribution line rights-of-way (ROW) is a highly desirable capability for understanding risks to the power grid during severe weather and wildfire events. Conventional assessments are time-consuming and expensive due to the need for in-situ inspections and the use of aerial assets. Performing conventional assessments on a wide area would require immense resources and time that might not be available within the horizon of an expected adverse event. Developing a capability to accurately assess vegetation encroachment into ROWs will enable faster analysis of potential grid vulnerabilities in NAERM. This project sought to develop a prototype capability for rapid ROW vegetation encroachment assessments by using Puerto Rico as a test case. Puerto Rico is a heavily forested island territory frequently impacted by tropical cyclones that threaten the electric grid by downing trees across transmission and distribution lines. Multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) enable very high resolution (i.e., 0.5 - 2 meter) assessment of vegetation conditions at scale and with revisit times appropriate for regular monitoring (e.g., weekly to quarterly, depending on cloud cover) of the entire island. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from satellites was also investigated as solution to the cloud-cover issue as they are active sensors that emit and receive a microwave signal rather than relying on solar illumination, and are therefore unaffected by cloud cover and can collect data during day or night. Finally, MSI-derived digital surface models (DSMs) map the height of objects relative to sea level, and were assessed for their ability to estimate the height of forest canopies relative to coincident transmission lines. The results of the mapping investigation are described in this report.
Power outages caused by extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, can significantly disrupt essential services and delay recovery efforts, underscoring the importance of enhancing our infrastructure's resilience. This study investigates the spread of power outages during hurricanes by analyzing the correlation between the network of critical infrastructure and outage propagation. We leveraged datasets from Hurricanemapping.com, the North American Energy Resilience Model Interdependency Analysis (NAERM-IA), and historical power outage data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)'s EAGLE-I system. Our analysis reveals a consistent positive correlation between the extent of critical infrastructure components accessible within a certain number of steps (k-hop distance) from initial impact areas and the occurrence of power outages in broader regions. This insight suggests that understanding the interconnectedness among critical infrastructure elements is key to identifying areas indirectly affected by extreme weather events.
This webinar focuses on the subject of DER integration, outlining the current industry state of the art and status of DER adoption in the US, a holistic view and roadmap of DER integration, DER interconnection standards, interconnection screening and study processes, interconnection automation, DER hosting capacity, AMI analytics, and non-wires alternatives.