Physics Model Calibration via Functional Kernel Regression and Multilevel Modeling
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Ohene-Obeng, Kwesi Appau [Sandia National Laborato↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Multilevel models”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Multilevel well modeling in aggregation-based nonlinear multigrid for multiphase flow in porous media
A full approximation scheme (FAS) nonlinear multigrid solver for two-phase flow and transport problems driven by wells with multiple perforations is developed here. It is an extension to our previous work on FAS solvers for diffusion and transport problems. The solver is applicable to discrete problems defined on unstructured grids as the coarsening algorithm is aggregation-based and algebraic. To construct coarse basis that can better capture the radial flow near wells, coarse grids in which perforated well cells are not near the coarse-element interface are desired. This is achieved by an aggregation algorithm proposed in this paper that makes use of the location of well cells in the cell-connectivity graph. Numerical examples in which the FAS solver is compared against Newton's method on benchmark problems are given. In particular, for a refined version of the SAIGUP model, the FAS solver is at least 35% faster than Newton's method for time steps with a CFL number greater than 10.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models
Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Laboratory-based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Additionally, there is a growing concern on characterizing the non-uniformity of field exposure. Therefore, data from field surveys are critical to assess the performance of component lifetimes. Using a documented field survey protocol, 19 field surveys were conducted. The focus of this survey strategy is to investigate spatial continuity in degradation modes. By combining field survey data with real-time satellite weather data, stressor / response models have been trained. Generalized additive Models (GAM) model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. Two different GAM constructions were testing using different implementations of basis splines. The model includes variables on the environmental stressors of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The incorporation of hierarchical structure into the models allowed for material specific degradation rates, while maintaining the assumption of a global trend. The model performed well with an adjusted R2 of 0.975 for yellowness index prediction.
backsheet↗
Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint
Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.
backsheet↗
Multilevel atomic structural model for interstratified opal materials
The structure of opal has long fascinated scientists. It occurs in a number of structural states, ranging from amorphous to exhibiting features of stacking disorder. Opal-CT, where C and T signify cristobalite- and tridymite-like interstratification, represents an important link in the length scales between amorphous and crystalline states. However, details about local atomic (dis)order and arrangements extending to long-range stacking faults in opal polymorphs remain incompletely understood. Here, a multilevel modeling approach is reported that considers stacking states in correlation with the abundance of C and T segments as a high-level structural parameter (i.e. not each atom). Optimization accounting for inter-tetrahedral bond lengths and angles and the regularity of the silicate tetrahedra is included as lower levels of structural parameters. Together, a set of parameters with both coarse-grained and atomistic features for different levels of structural details is refined. Structural disorder at the ~10–100 Å distance scale is evaluated using experimental pair distribution function and diffraction datasets, comparing peak intensities, widths and asymmetry. Here this work presents a complete multilevel structural description of natural opal-CT and explains many of the unusual features observed in X-ray powder diffraction patterns. This modeling approach can be adopted generally for analyzing layered materials and their assembly into 3D structures.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC) Modeling Considering Submodule Voltage Sensor Noise
The modular multilevel converter (MMC) is a popular topology in medium- and high-voltage applications, and many efforts have been spent on MMC modeling. However, the impact of submodule voltage sensor noise (SVSN), which becomes more severe due to increasing switching speed of power semiconductors and compact submodule design, has not been considered in conventional models. In this letter, the SVSN is introduced by coupling capacitances between the sensor and power stage in an MMC switching model. Furthermore, the SVSN impact is considered in an MMC average model based on derivation of the relationship between the SVSN and the duty cycle. Here, the proposed MMC switching model and average model considering the SVSN are validated by comparing simulations with experimental results in an MMC prototype using 10-kV SiC MOSFETS.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Sub-Doppler Cooling of a Trapped Ion in a Phase-Stable Polarization Gradient
Trapped ions provide a highly controlled platform for quantum sensors, clocks, simulators, and computers, all of which depend on cooling ions close to their motional ground state. Existing methods like Doppler, resolved sideband, and dark resonance cooling balance trade-offs between the final temperature and cooling rate. A traveling polarization gradient has been shown to cool multiple modes quickly and in parallel, but utilizing a stable polarization gradient can achieve lower ion energies, while also allowing tailorable light-matter interactions in the sub-wavelength regime. In this Letter, we demonstrate cooling of a trapped ion below the Doppler limit using a phase-stable polarization gradient created using trap-integrated photonic devices. At an axial frequency of 2𝜋×1.45 MHz we achieve ⟨𝑛⟩=1.56±0.07 in 150 μs and cooling rates of ∼0.3 quanta/μs. Here, we examine ion dynamics under different polarization gradient phases, detunings, and intensities, showing reasonable agreement between experimental results and a multilevel model. Cooling is fast and power efficient, with lower average motional Fock state occupation when compared to simulated operation under the corresponding running wave configuration. Our results demonstrate a well-controlled test bed for studying the dynamics of multilevel atomic systems in a phase-stable polarization gradient.
Atom & ion cooling↗
System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network
Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Urbanization and malaria have a contextual relationship in endemic areas: A temporal and spatial study in Ghana
In West Africa, malaria is one of the leading causes of disease-induced deaths. Existing studies indicate that as urbanization increases, there is corresponding decrease in malaria prevalence. However, in malaria-endemic areas, the prevalence in some rural areas is sometimes lower than in some peri-urban and urban areas. Therefore, the relationship between the degree of urbanization, the impact of living in urban areas, and the prevalence of malaria remains unclear. This study explores this association in Ghana, using epidemiological data at the district level (2015–2018) and data on health, hygiene, and education. We applied a multilevel model and time series decomposition to understand the epidemiological pattern of malaria in Ghana. Then we classified the districts of Ghana into rural, peri-urban, and urban areas using administratively defined urbanization, total built areas, and built intensity. We converted the prevalence time series into cross-sectional data for each district by extracting features from the data. To predict the determinant most impacting according to the degree of urbanization, we used a cluster-specific random forest. We find that prevalence is impacted by seasonality, but the trend of the seasonal signature is not noticeable in urban and peri-urban areas. While urban districts have a slightly lower prevalence, there are still pockets with higher rates within these regions. These areas of high prevalence are linked to proximity to water bodies and waterways, but the rise in these same variables is not associated with the increase of prevalence in peri-urban areas. The increase in nightlight reflectance in rural areas is associated with an increased prevalence. We conclude that urbanization is not the main factor driving the decline in malaria. However, the data indicate that understanding and managing malaria prevalence in urbanization will necessitate a focus on these contextual factors. Finally, we design an interactive tool, ’malDecision’ that allows data-supported decision-making.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Scaling hyporheic nitrogen cycling in large river alluvial aquifers
Research Element 1: Denitrification is a difficult flux to measure when fluxes are low and when the ecosystem is difficult to sample. These attributes describe Nyack floodplain, a large gravel-bedded aquifer adjacent to the Middle Fork Flathead River. Given that denitrification is simply respiration with nitrate as a terminal electron acceptor, we reasoned that N 2 production should negatively covary with oxygen respiration so long that oxygen is available. We sampled 16 wells 8 times throughout a year and analyzed these water samples on a membrane-inlet mass spectrometer for N 2 :Ar and O 2 . We fit multilevel models to N 2 :Ar as a function of dissolved oxygen. Within wells, there was no relationship between O 2 and N 2 :Ar. Among wells N 2 :Ar increased as O 2 declined. Based on the slope of this relationship, ~ -0.07, and estimated oxygen respiration in Nyack derived from prior studies, a possible range for denitrification is 0-8 mmol m -2 d -1 corresponding to a turnover rate for nitrate of 0-0.2/d. This estimated turnover rate is in the lower 20% of rates measured in the LINX 2 study, yet shows that even in a low nitrate (0.005 mmol/L) aquifer denitrification can be a substantial sink for dissolved N. Research Element 3 and 4: We developed a new theoretical approach to describe the relationship between water inflow, water outflow, and water age in porous media control volumes under dynamic flow conditions. Our approach had three distinct steps. First we described the application of well-established equations borrowed from Chemical Engineering to describe water age distributions in the hyporheic zone under steady state conditions. We published the associated results in the scientific journal PLOS ONE. Second, we developed a new theory ("flow spans") to describe how predicted steady-state water age distributions will respond to time varying imbalances in hyporheic discharge and recharge. Finally, we developed a proof-of-concept simulation model based on the new theory and used the model to examine the effects of flow regulation on a simulated river with characteristics representative of western U.S. montane rivers with expansive hyporheic zones.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Effectiveness and Long-Term Effects of SER+ FELIZ(mente): A School-Based Mindfulness Program for Portuguese Elementary Students
School-based mindfulness programs (SBMPs) have gained global popularity. Yet, there is a need for more rigorous procedures to develop and assess them. This study aimed to address these limitations by examining the effectiveness of a Portuguese SBMP, called SER + FELIZ(mente). The final sample included 190 third and fourth-graders: 99 in the SBMP group and 91 in a wait-list group. Effects on attentional control, emotional regulation and wellbeing were examined in the short term (T2) and 6 months later (T3). We also tested the moderating role of age, gender, and baseline scores. Using a multilevel modeling approach, results showed a clear benefit of SBMP on emotional wellbeing at T2 but not T3. Despite SBMP students surpassing wait-list students in attentional control, cognitive reappraisal, and social wellbeing at T2, these effects were due to a levelling off among SBMP students, coupled with a decline among wait-list students from T1 to T2. These effects were moderated by age at T3. While universal improvements were limited, our SBMP seemed to have acted as a shield against school stressors (i.e., likely, test anxiety at T2). This opens a new avenue for research concerning the role of SBMPs in preventing (rather than repairing) mental-health issues in elementary students.
Magalhães, Sofia↗
Modeling and Control of Cascaded Bridgeless Multilevel Rectifier Under Unbalanced Load Conditions
The goal of this project is to model and control a novel unidirectional cascaded multilevel bridgeless rectifier as an active front end in medium and high voltage applications. This topology has many advantages over a conventional cascaded H-bridge rectifier, such as lower implementation cost, higher reliability, and greater flexibility with similar power quality.The steady-state mathematical model is used to develop a method for the voltage balancing of dc cells. Power factor analysis is discussed to achieve unity power factor using fully controlled hbridge cells. Power loss, efficiency, and cost comparison studies between the traditional cascaded H-Bridge converter and the proposed bridgeless converter demonstrate the advantages. A novel control strategy is proposed to achieve dc voltage balancing, fast and robust grid synchronization and power factor correction under unbalanced load conditions. Simulation and experimental results validate the models and control method.
Cascaded Bridgeless Rectifier, Power factor analys↗
Improving a Multilevel Turbulence Closure Model for a Shallow Lake in Comparison With Other 1-D Models
Lakes differ from lands in water availability, heat capacity, albedo, and roughness, which affect local surface-atmospheric interactions. This study modified a multilevel upper ocean model (UOM) for lake applications and evaluated its performance in Lake Taihu (China) with comprehensive measurements against three popular one-dimensional (1-D) lake models. These models were based on different concepts, including the self-similarity (FLake), the wind-driven eddy diffusion (LISSS), the k-ε turbulence closure (SIMSTRAT), and a simplified turbulence closure (UOM). The surface flux scheme in these models was unified to exclude the discrepancies in representing air-lake exchanges. All models in their default formulations presented obvious cold water temperature biases and largely underestimated the lake surface temperature (LST) diurnal range. For each model, these deficiencies were significantly reduced by incorporating new physics schemes or calibrated tunable parameters based on systematic sensitivity tests. The primary modifications for UOM included (1) a new scheme of decreased surface roughness lengths to better characterize the shallow lake, (2) a solar radiation penetration scheme with increased light extinction coefficient and surface absorption fraction to account for the high water turbidity, and (3) turbulent Prandtl number increased by a factor of 20 to reduce the turbulent vertical mixing. All other models were improved in these three aspects (roughness, extinction, and mixing) within their original formulations. Given these improvements, UOM showed superior performance to other models in capturing LST diurnal cycle and daily to seasonal variations, as well as summer-autumn vertical stratification changes. The new UOM is well suited for application in shallow lakes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Stakeholder-driven carbon neutral pathways for Thailand and Bangkok: integrated assessment modeling to inform multilevel climate governance
Thailand has established a target of carbon neutrality by 2050. Reaching this goal will require coordination and collaboration between stakeholders spanning sectors and scales, including energy system decision makers, land managers, and city planners. Robust decarbonization scenarios incorporating current plans and targets, additional measures needed, and trade-offs between strategies can help stakeholders make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. Through iterative engagement with decision makers at the city and national levels, we develop and analyze carbon neutral scenarios for Thailand that incorporate Bangkok’s role using a global integrated assessment model. We find that Thailand can reach carbon neutrality through power sector decarbonization, energy efficiency improvements, widespread electrification, and advanced technologies including carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. Negative emissions technologies will also be needed to offset Thailand and Bangkok’s hardest-to-abate CO 2 emissions. Bangkok, as a major population and economic center, contributes significantly to Thailand’s energy demand and emissions and can therefore play an important role in climate change mitigation. Accordingly, our results underscore the importance of subnational climate action in meeting Thailand’s carbon neutral goal. Our analysis also indicates that without sustained land-based carbon sequestration, much more mitigation effort will be needed in Thailand’s energy sector, including at the subnational scale, to reach carbon neutrality. These insights can help stakeholders identify priorities, consider tradeoffs, and make decisions that will impact Bangkok and Thailand’s long-term climate change mitigation potential. This analysis demonstrates how stakeholder engagement in integrated assessment modeling can facilitate and inform multilevel climate governance.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework
In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
A Generic Two-Vector Model Predictive Control for Hybrid Multilevel Converters
In this article, a generic two-vector model predictive control (TV-MPC) strategy is proposed for the hybrid multilevel converters (HMCs). The proposed method selects two optimal voltage vectors among all the vector candidates using a geometric positioning approach to reduce the computational burden, which is a common issue in the existing MPC methods for HMC. Then duty cycles of the two selected vectors are optimized to minimize the current tracking error, such that the current tracking performance can be enhanced compared with the conventional MPC. In addition, the voltages of the floating dc capacitors can be balanced by evaluating all switching sequences that belong to the optimal voltage vectors with optimal duty cycles. Here, the concept of the proposed TV-MPC is generic and applicable for any HMCs. A typical HMC based on active neutral-point-clamped topology is adopted as a case study in this work. Comprehensive simulation and experimental studies are performed on an all silicon-carbide HMC prototype to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework
In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.
Kim, Junyung↗
Multilevel Analysis, Design, and Modeling of Coupling Advanced Nuclear Reactors and Thermal Energy Storage in an Integrated Energy System
This report discusses the different options for coupling thermal energy storage (TES) systems to advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) in order to enable flexible and hybrid plant operation. An advanced light-water reactor (A LWR), a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) and a liquid-metal fast reactor (LMFR) were selected as the initial use cases for demonstrating a thermally balanced energy storage coupling design for thermal power extraction. The models presented herein showcase several design considerations, focusing on optimal deployment methodologies for achieving steady-state and transient-state operation with minimum disruption to the nuclear power cycle. This first part of the study presents steady-state models developed using Aspen HYSYS®, with the thermal energy bypass for NPP-TES coupling being varied at up to 50%. The various components were sized using the Aspen Process Economic Analyzer (APEA) and Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR), when applicable. Cost functions from these models were developed using the latest publicly available data obtained from APEA V11. The TES-coupled A-NPP steady-state models and cost functions then provided a baseline for dynamic operation and process optimization by using Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tools. A stochastic optimization of the various energy storage systems coupled to the A-NPPs was then performed using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and its dispatch optimization plugin, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON). The signal processing and synthetic history capabilities of RAVEN were used to account for the unpredictable behavior of electricity markets. An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to analyze price signals from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market and were applied to the HERON analysis in order to optimize a system with the best economics. Transient modeling evaluation was then performed using Modelica models within the HYBRID repository, which was developed at INL for the Department of Energy Integrated Energy Systems program for the characterization of dynamic integrated system behavior and feedback. This includes evaluation of the TES-coupled A-LWR systems’ impact on physical and thermal system response during imposed system demands. Additional TES-coupled reactor types, coupling approaches, markets, and TES technologies will be evaluated in future work.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗