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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy)

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (\mxmc {}) is a software package developed as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Motivated by uncertainty propagation problems where classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intractable, various multi-model MC approaches have recently emerged that yield unbiased estimators with significantly reduced variance relative to MC for the same cost. These existing methods include multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC), multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), and approximate control variates (ACV). Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, each method seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. \mxmc {} is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches within one modular and extensible package. With \mxmc {}, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem, while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. This report introduces the \mxmc {} software, providing a summary of the problem-solving workflow for users as well as a brief overview of the code layout for developers.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗
NASA NTRS1990

A multigenerational Monte Carlo model of a comet coma

A steady state multigenerational Monte Carlo model was developed to describe the distribution of a neutral coma species which was produced after several photodissociation steps. This distribution can be compared with either line profiles derived from long slit spectroscopic observations or narrow band imaging, and be used to determine the elemental abundances present in the comet coma. A Monte Carlo model was chosen due to limitations in standard forms of more analytic models, such as those of Haser and Festou. In contrast to the analytical models, the Monte Carlo method can be modified to include new physical parameters.

Ferro, Anthony J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Monte Carlo Modeling of Lunar Megaregolith Development

A Monte Carlo model of lunar megaregolith development is proposed. Minimum megaregolith depths are obtained in the preliminary model. The model impacts a gridded, initially flat surface area randomly, with points not constrained to grid intersections. Information is recorded at grid points on evolving topography, deepest depth impacted to, and number of hits at that location. Two types of lunar surfaces ar simulated, maria and highlands. Crater production functions are after run to densities that are multiples of observed lunar crater densities for craters of 8 km in diameter and larger. all craters are considered to have formed in a gravity scaled regime. Edge effect problems are corrected in this model by allowing craters forming outside the grid area or along its edges to effect the gridded area.

Cashore, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Reduction With Multi-Model Monte Carlo for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Additively Manufactured Metals

In this work, multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed to reduce uncertainty in quantities of interest (QoIs) extracted from crystal plasticity simulations of additively manufactured (AM) metals. A significant concern in AM parts is uncertainty in mechanical properties caused in part by complex microstructures that arise from the AM process. Quantifying uncertainty in microstructure-sensitive behavior using experiments alone is costly, especially when mechanical allowables must be established. Quantitative relationships among microstructure, micromechanical metrics like slip accumulation, crack initiation, and failure are also difficult to capture with limited experiments. Crystal plasticity material models instead enable computational prediction of micromechanical stress and strain fields given a discretized microstructure. However, high-fidelity finely discretized crystal plasticity simulations are computationally expensive, while lower-fidelity models are less accurate and generally biased, making uncertainty quantification and reduction computationally difficult as well. Multi-model Monte Carlo methods leverage correlations between high- and low-fidelity models to produce unbiased estimators for QoIs with reduced uncertainty relative to standard Monte Carlo. Crystal plasticity QoIs considered in this work include yield strength and the mean and extreme values of micromechanical fields that are relevant to crack initiation. Multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed for each individual QoI and several groups of QoIs. The results of this work establish relationships among model correlations, sample allocation, and uncertainty reduction for different combinations of QoIs and demonstrate a trend of less uncertainty reduction as QoIs become more sensitive to local microstructure. Limitations from using pilot samples to estimate model covariances and train low-fidelity models are also addressed. The uncertainty reduction achieved by multi-model Monte Carlo is an important step toward using computational mechanics models to predict microstructure-sensitive crack initiation and failure in AM parts.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRS1983

Monte Carlo Modeling in Elliptic Flows

A Monte Carlo method capable of predicting scalar (e.g., concentration) probability density functions (pdf's) in nonreacting and reacting elliptic flows was developed. A research combustor specifically designed to provide measurements of concentration and temperature pdf's in nonreacting and reacting flows is emphasized.

Radhakrishnan, K.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A new Monte Carlo model of lunar megaregolith development

The use of a new Monte Carlo model to examine the development of the lunar megaregolith through impact cratering processes is discussed. The simulation incorporates some of the features and assumptions of the models of Short and Forman (1972), Gault et al. (1974), Quaide and Oberbeck (1968), Oberbeck et al. (1973, 1975), and Hoerz et al. (1976); and also greatly improves on some of these features. The problem of edge effects in computer modeling is resolved, and information on the geometry of craters and their ejecta blankets, as well as on crater production functions are included in the model. It is shown that this new model predicts greater megaregolith thicknesses than did the other models. The increase is due to the use of the observed lunar highlands crater size-frequency curve as the production function, to the retention of topographic information as cratering proceeds, and to the differences in the crater bowl and ejecta geometries.

Cashore, J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parallel simulation via SPPARKS of on-lattice kinetic and Metropolis Monte Carlo models for materials processing

Abstract SPPARKS is an open-source parallel simulation code for developing and running various kinds of on-lattice Monte Carlo models at the atomic or meso scales. It can be used to study the properties of solid-state materials as well as model their dynamic evolution during processing. The modular nature of the code allows new models and diagnostic computations to be added without modification to its core functionality, including its parallel algorithms. A variety of models for microstructural evolution (grain growth), solid-state diffusion, thin film deposition, and additive manufacturing (AM) processes are included in the code. SPPARKS can also be used to implement grid-based algorithms such as phase field or cellular automata models, to run either in tandem with a Monte Carlo method or independently. For very large systems such as AM applications, the Stitch I/O library is included, which enables only a small portion of a huge system to be resident in memory. In this paper we describe SPPARKS and its parallel algorithms and performance, explain how new Monte Carlo models can be added, and highlight a variety of applications which have been developed within the code.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1972

A modified Monte Carlo model for the ionospheric heating rates

A Monte Carlo method is adopted as a basis for the derivation of the photoelectron heat input into the ionospheric plasma. This approach is modified in an attempt to minimize the computation time. The heat input distributions are computed for arbitrarily small source elements that are spaced at distances apart corresponding to the photoelectron dissipation range. By means of a nonlinear interpolation procedure their individual heating rate distributions are utilized to produce synthetic ones that fill the gaps between the Monte Carlo generated distributions. By varying these gaps and the corresponding number of Monte Carlo runs the accuracy of the results is tested to verify the validity of this procedure. It is concluded that this model can reduce the computation time by more than a factor of three, thus improving the feasibility of including Monte Carlo calculations in self-consistent ionosphere models.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A modified Monte Carlo model for the ionospheric heating rates.

A Monte Carlo method is adopted as a basis for the derivation of the photoelectron-heat input into the ionospheric plasma. Since a great number of Monte Carlo runs are required normally for the computation of the heating rates, this approach is modified in an attempt to minimize the computation time. The heat-input distributions are computed for arbitrarily small source elements that are spaced apart at distances corresponding to the photoelectron dissipation range. By means of a nonlinear interpolation procedure their individual heating-rate distributions are utilized to produce synthetic ones that fill the gaps between the Monte Carlo generated distributions. By varying these gaps and the corresponding number of Monte Carlo runs the accuracy of the results is tested to verify the validity of this procedure. It is concluded that this model can reduce the computation time by as much as an order of magnitude, thus improving the feasibility of including Monte Carlo calculations in self-consistent ionosphere models.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Monte Carlo Modeling of Sodium in Mercury's Exosphere During the First Two MESSENGER Flybys

We present a Monte Carlo model of the distribution of neutral sodium in Mercury's exosphere and tail using data from the Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft during the first two flybys of the planet in January and September 2008. We show that the dominant source mechanism for ejecting sodium from the surface is photon-stimulated desorption (PSD) and that the desorption rate is limited by the diffusion rate of sodium from the interior of grains in the regolith to the topmost few monolayers where PSD is effective. In the absence of ion precipitation, we find that the sodium source rate is limited to approximately 10(exp 6) - 10(exp 7) per square centimeter per second, depending on the sticking efficiency of exospheric sodium that returns to the surface. The diffusion rate must be at least a factor of 5 higher in regions of ion precipitation to explain the MASCS observations during the second MESSENGER f1yby. We estimate that impact vaporization of micrometeoroids may provide up to 15% of the total sodium source rate in the regions observed. Although sputtering by precipitating ions was found not to be a significant source of sodium during the MESSENGER flybys, ion precipitation is responsible for increasing the source rate at high latitudes through ion-enhanced diffusion.

Burger, Matthew H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Monte Carlo modeling of atomic oxygen attack of polymers with protective coatings on LDEF

Characterization of the behavior of atomic oxygen interaction with materials on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) will assist in understanding the mechanisms involved, and will lead to improved reliability in predicting in-space durability of materials based on ground laboratory testing. A computational simulation of atomic oxygen interaction with protected polymers was developed using Monte Carlo techniques. Through the use of assumed mechanistic behavior of atomic oxygen and results of both ground laboratory and LDEF data, a predictive Monte Carlo model was developed which simulates the oxidation processes that occur on polymers with applied protective coatings that have defects. The use of high atomic oxygen fluence-directed ram LDEF results has enabled mechanistic implications to be made by adjusting Monte Carlo modeling assumptions to match observed results based on scanning electron microscopy. Modeling assumptions, implications, and predictions are presented, along with comparison of observed ground laboratory and LDEF results.

Banks, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A Monte Carlo model for the gardening of the lunar regolith

The processes of movement and turnover of the lunar regolith are described by a Monte Carlo model. The movement of material by the direct cratering process is the dominant mode, but slumping is also included for angles exceeding the static angle of repose. Using a group of interrelated computer programs, a large number of properties are calculated, including topography, formation of layers, depth of the disturbed layer, nuclear-track distributions, and cosmogenic nuclides. In the most complex program, the history of a 36-point square array is followed for times up to 400 million years. The histories generated are complex and exhibit great variety. Because a crater covers much less area than its ejecta blanket, there is a tendency for the height change at a test point to exhibit periods of slow accumulation followed by sudden excavation. In general, the agreement with experiment and observation seems good, but two areas of disagreement stand out. First, the calculated surface is rougher than that observed. Second, the observed bombardment ages, of the order 400 million are shorter than expected (by perhaps a factor of 5).

Arnold, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Comparison of generalized transport and Monte-Carlo models of the escape of a minor species

The steady-state diffusion of a minor species through a static background species is studied using a Monte Carlo model and a generalized 16-moment transport model. The two models are in excellent agreement in the collision-dominated region and in the 'transition region'. In the 'collisionless' region the 16-moment solution contains two singularities, and physical meaning cannot be assigned to the solution in their vicinity. In all regions, agreement between the models is best for the distribution function and for the lower-order moments and is less good for higher-order moments. Moments of order higher than the heat flow and hence beyond the level of description provided by the transport model have a noticeable effect on the shape of distribution functions in the collisionless region.

Demars, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Monte Carlo modeling and meteor showers

Prediction of short lived increases in the cosmic dust influx, the concentration in lower thermosphere of atoms and ions of meteor origin and the determination of the frequency of micrometeor impacts on spacecraft are all of scientific and practical interest and all require adequate models of meteor showers at an early stage of their existence. A Monte Carlo model of meteor matter ejection from a parent body at any point of space was worked out by other researchers. This scheme is described. According to the scheme, the formation of ten well known meteor streams was simulated and the possibility of genetic affinity of each of them with the most probable parent comet was analyzed. Some of the results are presented.

Kulikova, N. V.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Monte Carlo modeling of atomic oxygen attack of polymers with protective coatings on LDEF

Characterization of the behavior of atomic oxygen interaction with materials on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) assists in understanding of the mechanisms involved. Thus the reliability of predicting in-space durability of materials based on ground laboratory testing should be improved. A computational model which simulates atomic oxygen interaction with protected polymers was developed using Monte Carlo techniques. Through the use of an assumed mechanistic behavior of atomic oxygen interaction based on in-space atomic oxygen erosion of unprotected polymers and ground laboratory atomic oxygen interaction with protected polymers, prediction of atomic oxygen interaction with protected polymers on LDEF was accomplished. However, the results of these predictions are not consistent with the observed LDEF results at defect sites in protected polymers. Improved agreement between observed LDEF results and predicted Monte Carlo modeling can be achieved by modifying of the atomic oxygen interactive assumptions used in the model. LDEF atomic oxygen undercutting results, modeling assumptions, and implications are presented.

Banks, Bruce A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

First Wall Design of a Tokamak Pilot Plant Using a Monte Carlo Model for 3-D Heat Flux Deposition

We present a method for calculating the heat fluxes deposited on nonaxisymmetric tokamak first wall components, allowing for a first-of-its-kind model for power handling in the tokamak far scrape-off layer (SOL). The DIV3D Monte Carlo model features strict global power conservation and can calculate the finite cross-field plasma transport into magnetically-shadowed regions, which is significant when dealing with meter-scale shadows introduced by components such as poloidal limiters or antennas. As a case study, we apply the DIV3D model to inform the distribution of first wall poloidal limiters in an ARC-class reactor device. We demonstrate that discrete protection limiters can efficiently reduce peak heat fluxes on recessed breeder wall components in the presence of significant far-SOL plasma fluxes. By varying the toroidal periodicity and radial standoff depth of the limiters, we demonstrate one of the tradeoffs that must be considered in first wall design: more limiters provide greater protection, but at the cost of reduced breeding performance. We also present the impact that radial misalignments between limiters would have on first wall power loading.

Monte Carlo methods↗
NASA NTRS1981

Monte-Carlo model of pitch-angle scattering in solar cosmic ray events

Monte Carlo simulations of the propagation of solar cosmic-rays in interplanetary space are reported, including the effects of pitch-angle scattering and adiabatic focusing. Time intensity profiles agree well with the corresponding spatial diffusion approximation for models close to those used by Gombosi and Owens (1980). Monte Carlo simulations of the same model problem yield results that disagree with those of Gombosi and Owens, and the most likely possible source of error in the Monte Carlo simulation is considered to be in the region near the 90 deg pitch angle where the finite step size introduces certain inconsistencies.

Palmer, I. D.↗