Manufacturing metrology for c-Si module reliability and durability Part III: Module manufacturing
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Schneller, Eric J.↗
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Present and Future Silver Cost Component in Crystalline Silicon PV Module Manufacturing
The purpose of this paper is to determine how increased c-Si PV module production might affect future silver demand and prices, as well as the impacts on total c-Si module manufacturing costs. To evaluate how PV's changing demand for silver might affect future silver prices, and the impact in terms of manufacturing costs, some scenarios of silver's contribution to c-Si PV cell manufacturing costs are compiled on the basis of projected changes in demand and price as a result of changes in material intensity. The analysis indicates that an expansion of c-Si production from 55GW/year to 250GW/year results in a 0.05-0.7 cent/W increase in manufacturing costs because of higher silver prices.
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PV Module Manufacturing and Testing: Industry Requirements for Perovskite PV Modules
What standard tests are required for commercializing a new PV module technology such as perovskite photovoltaics? This summary document provides answers in the areas of (1) quality assurance for manufacturing, (2) safety and reliability testing, and (3) performance characterization.
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Water intensity of photovoltaic module manufacturing at the terawatt scale
As the U.S. ramps photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing to the terawatt scale and emphasizes re-shoring manufacturing, potential regional impacts on the U.S. water supply should be considered, particularly since many PV companies rely almost exclusively on public water supplies for manufacturing. This work surveys the academic literature and PV manufacturer reports to estimate the water intensity of monocrystalline silicon, multicrystalline silicon, and cadmium telluride modules manufactured at the terawatt scale, determining that on average, cadmium telluride manufacturing is less water intensive on a per megawatt scale – this is anticipated to be true for all thin film PV manufacturing. While much lower than the water intensity of thermoelectric (e.g., coal) energy generation, significant issues and gaps with PV manufacturing data quality in academic studies are identified which cause estimates to vary by over 1000x (0.04 – 49 trillion liters/terawatt). Data issues are discussed and the need for accurate accounting of water resources (e.g., via continuous, updated information during PV manufacturing) is highlighted. The opportunity to reconfigure decommissioned thermoelectric sites to PV manufacturing is also explored. Finally, factors that influence PV manufacturing water intensity, from individual manufacturing steps to trends across the PV industry, are examined and water conservation opportunities are presented.
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Evaluation and modeling of the potential effects of a module manufacturing anomaly
Photovoltaic lifetime predictions are in great demand, but are exceedingly difficult to achieve with uncertainties small enough to be useful. During the construction of photovoltaic modules, small unplanned variability in materials or processes can have profound effects on module durability. Thus, continual monitoring of production quality is needed. In the subject production run, module quality, as monitored by damp heat testing, revealed a subset of modules that were prone to higher degradation rates. An assessment of the potential long-term power loss and mitigation strategies was needed. To do this, modules were exposed to variable levels of humidity and temperature with periodic monitoring. The analysis takes into account the kinetics of the degradation and the spatially and temporally varying humidity content within the module during accelerated stress testing. This is an important aspect for extrapolating laboratory results to field exposure because moisture ingress is diffusion limited in most laboratory module tests but not limited in these fielded modules. This analysis predicted that although a solder flux induce degradation mechanism is significant in accelerated stress test, this is probably an artifact of a process with a very large acceleration factor that is not likely to be significant for deployed modules. The degradation mechanism affected a limited area around the tabbing helping to minimize the effect. Furthermore, three years after the system was commissioned, the fielded modules indeed show no significant power loss.
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Technoeconomic Analysis of Photovoltaics Module Manufacturing with Thin Silicon Wafers
Reducing silicon usage by adopting thinner wafers can significantly reduce capital expenditure (capex) and cost, and thus accelerate the growth of manufacturing capacity and deployment. In this work, we evaluated potential benefits of thin Si wafers for current and future PV modules. We apply a technoeconomic framework that couples bottom-up cost model, and a cash-flow growth model to analyze PV modules with thin wafers. First, we show that, comparing the current PERC with 160 um thick wafers to the high-efficiency concept with 50 um thin wafers, the capex is reduced from 0.39 to 0.2 $/(W/year) while the cost is from 0.32 to 0.2 $/W. Second, the potential of accelerated deployment is analyzed for the highefficiency thin wafer concept. We found the significant advantages of higher growth rate (~20% relative) and higher deployment plateau (~3 times) than the current PERC modules. modules with thin wafers. First, we show that, comparing the current PERC with 160 um thick wafers to the high-efficiency concept with 50 um thin wafers, the capex is reduced from 0.39 to 0.2 $/(W/year) while the cost is from 0.32 to 0.2 $/W. Second, the potential of accelerated deployment is analyzed for the highefficiency thin wafer concept. We found the significant advantages of higher growth rate (~20% relative) and higher deployment plateau (~3 times) than the current PERC modules.
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Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Module Manufacturing Costs and Sustainable Pricing: 1H 2018 Benchmark and Cost Reduction Road Map
In this paper we provide an overview of the accounting methods and most recent input data used within NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar photovoltaic (PV) module supply chain cost models. The costs accounting framework that is detailed in this paper provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up c-Si PV supply chain cost models in accordance with the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, ingot, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, we outline what is relevant for calculations of the costs of goods sold (consisting of the materials, labor, electricity, maintenance, and depreciation of capital equipment); as well as the additional operating expenses of research and development (R&D); and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A). This 2017 benchmark analysis is applied to current state-of-the-art manufacturing sites located within the United States, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Germany. Primarily due to country-dependent labor and electricity rates, tax rates, and cost-of-capital considerations, we calculate differences in minimum sustainable pricing for all of these countries. In this paper we also include technical descriptions and bottom-up cost model results for several emerging c-Si technologies including larger Czochralski (Cz) ingots, kerfless wafers, reduced silicon utilization by thinner wafers and advanced diamond wire wafering, new encapsulants and backsheets, shingled cells, and the cell architectures passivated emitter and rear cells (PERC), bifacial passivated emitter and rear totally diffused (PERT) cells, bifacial heterojunction intrinsic thin layer (HIT) cells, and interdigitated all back-contact cells (IBC).
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Wavelength-selective specularly reflecting photovoltaic module and manufacture thereof
A photovoltaic module comprises a plurality of photovoltaic cells, and a polymeric film positioned on an incident light side of the plurality of photovoltaic cells, wherein the polymeric film transmits a range of wavelengths of the incident light spectrum and specularly reflects wavelengths outside of the range. An encapsulant layer is in contact with the polymeric film. The polymeric film may have a first surface area larger than a second surface area of the layer of photovoltaic cells. The polymeric film may have one or more through-holes so that encapsulant can penetrate through the through-holes at elevated temperature during lamination thereby bonding to a front glass of the photovoltaic module.
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Economically Sustainable Scaling of Photovoltaics to Meet Climate Targets
To meet climate goals, photovoltaics (PV) deployment will have to grow rapidly over the next fifteen years. We identify two barriers to this growth: scale-up of manufacturing capacity and the cost of PV module production. We explore several technoeconomic approaches to overcoming these barriers and identify deep reductions in the capital intensity (capex) of PV module manufacturing and large increases in module efficiency as the most promising routes to rapid deployment. Given the lag inherent in rolling out new technology, we explore an approach where growth is fueled by debt or subsidies in the short-term and technological advances in the medium term. Finally, we analyze the current capex structure of crystalline silicon PV module manufacturing to identify potential savings.
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Sunpath SANfab
The paper describes Soitecs project to plan, install, qualify and ramp a high volume CPV module manufacturing facility in Southern California. Soitec’s CPV module factory in San Diego was planned with an annual production capacity of 280MWDC. It was scheduled to be operational by the first quarter of 2013, and was expected to create several hundred direct and indirect jobs in the San Diego region. From ground breaking to facility readiness was completed in six months. This enabled the docking of equipment in the Q3’12 time frame. The first 140 MW of capacity was ready for operation in Q4’12. Production of the CX-M500 modules started in Q4 2012. The line yield and factory capacity were ramped in 2013. The annual production capacity demonstration was successfully completed in Q2 2014. The modules manufactured at the plant were used to supply utility scale demand in the US and also world markets.
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Continuous Silicon Consolidation and Reduction
The goal of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Sunshot program is to increase the adaptability of photovoltaic (PV) solar power generation by reducing the cost of power generation. The cost of polysilicon is one of several factors affecting the costs of a solar power module. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) assumes module manufacturing costs (all-in vertically integrated module production) of 0.63 (cents)/Wdc (2015 NREL data). If the NREL polysilicon costs are replaced by the SRI International (SRI) polysilicon costs, the module manufacturing costs are reduced to 0.58 (cents)/Wdc (2015 basis) i.e., reduction of 0.05 (cents)/Wdc. The NREL cost model (System Advisor Module, SAM) is based on $20/kg of blended polysilicon silicon cost. The Continuous Silicon Consolidation and Reduction (CoSiRC) process is estimated to produce polysilicon at 8.06 (dollars)/kg. In addition, SRI’s CoSiRC process introduces a commercially viable path to recycle and reclaim kerf loss silicon fines that would otherwise go to a landfill, thereby reducing a precious resource from going to waste. The results of this project demonstrate that SRI’s silicon production process that uses a reduction reaction can be successfully integrated with a kerf loss reclaiming process. The combined process was first demonstrated at lab scale and then fit to a bench-scale process. Leveraging the industrial expertise of the commercial partners, it is feasible to adapt industrial-scale equipment for SRI’s CoSiRC process.
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Conductive Adhesives for Metallization of Interdigitated Back Contact Solar Cells
The metallization and interconnection of Si solar cells to form a module is usually a multi-step process: cells are metallized individually, soldered into strings, and subsequently assembled into a module. Furthermore, the metallization process for individual cells must be compatible with the doped surfaces being contacted, which creates additional challenges when moving from diffused junctions to heterojunctions and/or passivated contact structures. To mitigate these problems and streamline module manufacturing for the case of interdigitated back contact (IBC) cell modules, we developed an approach wherein unmetallized IBC cells are bonded directly to a circuitized backsheet using a conductive adhesive (CA) that only conducts out-of-plane. The metal/CA/silicon stack is bonded by hot-pressing at 100-200 degrees C.For a CA consisting of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) filled with Ag-coated spheres or indium powder we find that contact resistivities in the range of 1-10 Wcm 2 are obtained, regardless of which conductive filler and which hot pressing parameters are used. XPS revealed that about 1-2 nm EVA residue bonds to the Si in these samples, suggesting the formation of an insulating barrier that is responsible for the high contact resistance. Using indium powder alone, improved contact resistivities <0.6 Wcm 2 , high shunt resistances, and an implied open-circuit voltage loss below 10 mV were obtained. Furthermore, a cost estimate is presented, indicating that substantial cost savings of up to $10/m 2 , or about $0.05/W DC , are possible through CA-based IBC module manufacturing.
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A New Low-Temperature Approach for Efficient and Low-Cost Group V Doping in CdTe Thin Film Solar Cells (Final Technical Report)
The goal of this project is to develop a highly efficient low-temperature ex-situ Group V diffusion doping approach in the CdCl 2 treated polycrystalline CdTe film using the group V chlorides (i.e., PCl 3 , AsCl 3 , SbCl 3 , and BiCl 3 ) as dopants source. For the first time, our innovative doping strategies through the low-temperature ex-situ Group V doping process in polycrystalline CdSeTe successfully demonstrated a promising power conversion efficiency of ~19% compared to the Cu-doped counterparts. Our newly developed low-temperature ex-situ group V doping allows dedicated control of group V diffusion amount, generates a desirable depth profile, and is completely compatible with commercial CdTe module manufacturing. We built the partnership with the largest CdTe solar module manufacturing in the US, e.g., First Solar, Inc to further develop these low-temperature diffusion doped CdSeTe solar cells. Our technology was granted US Patent No. US11257977B2. In this project, we systematically investigate and characterize the new ex-situ group V doping mechanisms, defect chemistry, microstructure, and device physics in CdTe solar cells by combining experimental and theoretical means to pave the way to achieve lower cost toward $\$$0.02/kWh and higher power conversion efficiency (PCE) toward 25% in polycrystalline CdTe solar technology. This project will benefit the public by providing more affordable solar electricity and provide an effective way to address climate change.
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Contactless Production Testing of Silicon Solar Cells
Critical cost reductions in silicon solar cells are made by minimizing silver usage in their metal contacts. The reason why is both clear and unavoidable—silver is not only expensive, but also a potential limiting resource for scale-up (the PV industry alone used 10.3 % of the global silver supply in 2020 [1]). The result is solar cells with vanishing electrical contact area that are extremely difficult to test prior to module manufacture, when they must be sorted for quality to maximize power output and reliability of the subsequent modules. This project developed a new measurement instrument that enables the transition to solar cells with very low silver content, including cell designs with both minimal busbars and no busbars at all to electrically contact. The resulting instrument at project completion demonstrated the ability to sort cells with comparable—or better—results than existing technology. Compared to existing cell-test instruments, the new tool has minimal contacting requirements, which lowers the maintenance costs and use of consumable parts. We demonstrated innovative, yet pragmatic, solutions for reporting a comprehensive set of measurement results useful for both cell sorting (going forward in the line for module manufacture) and process control (looking backward in the line to identify cell manufacturing issues from wafer to cell-test). In addition to the traditional current-voltage characterization at cell test—short circuit current, open-circuit voltage, power, efficiency and fill factor—the new tool maintains all the advanced parameter characterization of our existing product line such as a substrate doping measurement, carrier recombination (lifetime) analysis, and surface recombination analysis.
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Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Supply Chains and Technology and Market Opportunities
This talk will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage supply and demand in the United States and globally, as well as bottom-up calculations of manufacturing costs for facilities across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global solar PV supply chain and 2022 benchmark input data used for NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review the industry-collected input data and methods used for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, and A) expenses. This 2022 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film PV module manufacturing in several countries and regions; and will also include a quantified summary of the impacts of the manufacturing incentives and tax credits that are available for solar manufacturing and installations within the United States. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. We will conclude with projections of solar market penetration to 2050 from NREL's Solar Futures Study and Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) model, which includes solar coupled with lower-cost storage scenarios as well as the range of future cost scenarios for other power generation sources. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.
economics↗
Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis Tutorial for the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)
This tutorial will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends and manufacturing costs, project levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and project levelized cost of solar plus storage (LCOSS) for systems across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and 2021 benchmark input data for NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. The framework that we follow and will review during this tutorial provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up manufacturing cost models including the items within the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2021 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film module manufacturing. We will also review methods for our 2021 system benchmark costs calculations and LCOE technoeconomic analysis of PV systems and solar plus storage systems. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. Techniques for comparing LCOE performance will also be reviewed. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.
cost models↗
Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Manufacturing Expansions in the United States, 2017-2019: Motives, Challenges, Opportunities, and Policy Context
This report analyzes U.S. PV manufacturing announcements from 2017 through July-2019 and explores the potential impact of tariffs on the competitiveness of U.S. PV module manufacturing. First, the fraction of announcements that resulted in established facilities in the time frame specified is analyzed, as well as firm nationality and the existence of any other U.S. facilities for the firm. The prevalence of different PV product types among the announcements was also analyzed, as well as the type of facilities selected for development (greenfield, existing PV factories, or repurposed buildings). The cost to build these facilities was also analyzed in the context of their capacity, the value of incentives received by state and local governments, and the number of jobs created. Case studies of Auxin Solar, First Solar, Hanwha Q Cells, JinkoSolar, LG, Silfab, Solaria, and SunPower were conducted and highlight five factors influencing firms’ decisions to expand their U.S. PV production capacity. These included: 1) proximity to demand, including supply contracts and demand for domestic content 2) tariffs and other incentives. The Section 201 tariffs on PV module imports were often described helpful but tariffs on cell imports (Section 201) or materials (Section 301, Section 232) were often described as counterproductive since U.S. supply chains do not exist for many necessary goods. The corporate tax decrease and local incentives were often mentioned as helpful. 3) the ability to move quickly in order to maximize the benefit of the Section 201 tariffs. This affected decisions to select localities with faster permitting or moving into existing buildings. 4) competition with scale, where competing with Asian PV imports or avoiding imports of material from China was challenging due to the larger scale of Asian manufacturers. Additionally, smaller firms expressed concerns that larger firms may not need their U.S. facilities to profitable. 5) access to capital, which was a particular challenge for smaller firms. Several U.S. tariffs affect the economics of PV cells, modules, and balance-of-module (BOM) materials, some of which are applicable to a long list of countries and others applicable only to China or Taiwan. We analyze how the tariffs interact to affect the prices of c-Si modules sourced under various assumptions about domestic and imported components and assembly. We estimate module prices under a range of baseline scenarios featuring U.S.-assembled modules with Southeast Asian cells (not from China or Taiwan). When all BOM components are sourced from the United States, baseline module prices are $0.37/W (below the 2.5-GW Section 201 cell cap) to $0.42/W (above the 2.5-GW cell cap). If all BOM components are sourced from China, the module price in this baseline U.S.-assembly scenario can reach up to $0.60/W. Imported module prices are lower than or within the range of the U.S.-assembled baseline prices under some conditions. Importing bifacial modules from Southeast Asia is the lowest-priced alternative, at $0.35/W, because bifacial modules are excluded from the Section 201 tariffs. Importing Southeast Asia modules that contain U.S. cells results in a price of $0.38/W, also owing to a Section 201 exclusion. Importing Southeast Asian modules that have Southeast Asian cells yields a price of $0.44/W, and importing Chinese modules that have U.S. cells yields a price of $0.58/W. These results suggest that U.S. tariff policy in 2019 may encourage U.S. assembly of mono-facial c-Si modules if the 2.5-GW cell import cap is not reached and Chinese BOM imports are negligible. However, some imported module options may offer the lowest prices if the 2.5-GW cell import cap is reached and/or U.S. module manufacturers must rely on significant Chinese BOM content. The analysis shows the 2.5-GW cell cap may be exceeded in 2019 and following years. It is also likely that U.S. module manufacturers will need to use at least some Chinese BOM content, since U.S. module manufacturers have stated that U.S. supply chains do not exist (or do not exist at a sufficient scale) for most BOM components, which makes them at least partially reliant on Chinese BOM and thus subject to Section 301 tariffs.
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Reduction of Fermi level pinning and recombination at polycrystalline CdTe surfaces by laser irradiation
Laser processing of polycrystalline CdTe is a promising approach that could potentially increase module manufacturing throughput while reducing capital expenditure costs. For these benefits to be realized, the basic effects of laser irradiation on CdTe must be ascertained. In this study, we utilize surface photovoltage spectroscopy (SPS) to investigate the changes to the electronic properties of the surface of polycrystalline CdTe solar cell stacks induced by continuous-wave laser annealing. The experimental data explained within a model consisting of two space charge regions, one at the CdTe/air interface and one at the CdTe/CdS junction, are used to interpret our SPS results. The frequency dependence and phase spectra of the SPS signal are also discussed. To support the SPS findings, low-temperature spectrally-resolved photoluminescence and time-resolved photoluminescence were also measured. The data show that a modest laser treatment of 250 W/cm{sup 2} with a dwell time of 20 s is sufficient to reduce the effects of Fermi level pinning at the surface due to surface defects.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗