Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model inadequacy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

10 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Unpacking model inadequacy: The quantification of silver release from TRISO fuel by considering empirical and mechanistic approaches

Increasing adoption of the proposed tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel for both advanced and existing reactors makes it critical to assess and address any uncertainties and inadequacies of TRISO fission product release models. Model inadequacy stems from simplifications made to the computational model when compared to the experiments. The modeling and simulation efforts conducted using the BISON fuel performance code, along with the experimental campaigns carried out under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, afford a unique opportunity to conduct a rigorous modeling inadequacy assessment within the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. Here, this study compares the standard Bayesian framework against the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly represents modeling inadequacy, in regard to UQ for TRISO silver release models. For this purpose, both the traditional Arrhenius equation fitted to experimental data and the more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model, which considers microstructure information, are independently considered. Applying the inverse UQ process on the AGR-2 and -3/4 datasets revealed modeling inadequacy to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Experimental noise uncertainty is also significant; however, model parameter uncertainty can be considered negligible. Interestingly, both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model demonstrated similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For the forward predictive UQ, the KOH framework improved both the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties in comparison to the standard Bayesian framework. This is true for both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model. In comparing these modeling approaches, both demonstrated similar performance at the engineering scale, while the LLS-informed model expectedly outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These conclusions highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for modeling inadequacy in the UQ process, and reinforce the need for continuous refinement of physics-based models in order to address the modeling inadequacy.

Advanced reactors↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fully Bayesian Analysis With Model Inadequacy Correction For Nuclear Graphite Property Models With Hierarchical Variance Structure

Nuclear-grade graphites are extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. Within the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, such as nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity, forecasting component performance over the reactor's lifespan, and developing design standards necessitate robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components within nuclear reactors. This code enables the Bayesian calibration of properties for nuclear-grade graphites. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources are combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data are quantified.

Dhulipala, Som Lakshmi NarasimhaLakshmi Narasimha ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating and Refining BISON TRISO Assessment

Several advanced reactor concepts consider tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel in their designs. To support the advanced reactor industry, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing modeling and simulation capabilities within the BISON fuel performance code. Assessment of these capabilities against available experi- mental data, such as the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program, is essential in instilling confidence in the code predictions. Associated uncertainties in model inadequacy, experimental measurements, and manufacturing are also of importance. This report discusses the updating and standardization of the existing assessment suite in BISON for TRISO fuel performance analysis. The cases considered the AGR-1, AGR-2, and AGR-3/4 experimental programs. The report also includes a preliminary investigation into the sources of model inadequacy associated with silver (Ag) release fractions using the AGR-2 Compact 2-1-2 as a case study. The results indicate that uncertainties in the operating temperatures supplied to the model and the form of those temperature conditions (spatially averaged versus spatially resolved) both affect Ag release predictions. This suggests that previously observed model inadequacy can be attributed to both physical models and the operating conditions supplied to them. These findings will be leveraged to guide development of assessment cases for additional experiments and refinement of physical models for behaviors that potentially influence Ag release, such as palladium penetration.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of uncertainties in electron-argon collision cross sections

Abstract The predictive capability of a plasma discharge model depends on accurate representations of electron-impact collision cross sections, which determine the corresponding reaction rates and electron transport properties. The values of cross sections can be known only approximately either through experiments or simulations and are thus subject to uncertainties. Quantifying the uncertainties in plasma simulations allows us to assess the reliability of simulations and to provide a basis for interpreting discrepancies between simulations and experiments. For such uncertainty quantification of plasma simulations, it is essential to quantify the uncertainties of the underlying cross sections. Although much effort has been committed to calibrate the cross section values, their uncertainties are not well investigated. We characterize uncertainties in electron-argon atom collision cross sections using a Bayesian framework. Six collision processes—elastic momentum transfer, ionization, and four excitations—are characterized with semi-empirical models, which effectively capture the features important to the macroscopic properties of the plasma. A probability model for the uncertain parameters of these semi-empirical models is developed. Specifically, a Gaussian-process likelihood model is proposed to capture discrepancies among data sets, as well as the model-form inadequacies of the semi-empirical models. Two other likelihood models are compared with the proposed Gaussian-process model, to illustrate the importance of the choice of the likelihood model. The cross section models are calibrated using the electron-beam experiments and ab-inito quantum simulations. The resulting calibrated uncertainties capture well the scattering among the data sets. The calibrated cross section models are further validated against swarm-parameter experiments and zero-dimensional Boltzmann equation simulations of widely used cross section datasets.

Chung, Seung Whan (ORCID:0000000302501549)↗
DOE OSTI2025

EMT Model Validation of a 2 MVA PV Inverter Using Transient and Frequency-Domain Hardware Testing: Preprint

This paper presents results and new insights gained from a hardware test campaign on a 2 MVA PV inverter for validating its vendor-supplied EMT model. The test campaign was conducted using a 7 MVA grid simulator and a 2 MW PV emulator. It considered both time-domain transient tests and frequency-domain impedance scan tests. The paper highlights the inadequacy of transient tests in capturing all critical resonance modes of the inverter, and the effectiveness of the frequency scan testing in addressing this problem. The paper shows the frequency scan testing as an effective tool for EMT model validation of IBR units which can highlight inaccuracies in the EMT models that are easy to overlook when model validation is performed using only the time-domain transient tests such as voltage ride-through and phase jump tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting RNA structure and dynamics with deep learning and solution scattering

Advanced deep learning and statistical methods can predict structural models for RNA molecules. However, RNAs are flexible, and it remains difficult to describe their macromolecular conformations in solutions where varying conditions can induce conformational changes. Small-angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) in solution is an efficient technique to validate structural predictions by comparing the experimental SAXS profile with those calculated from predicted structures. There are two main challenges in comparing SAXS profiles to RNA structures: the absence of cations essential for stability and charge neutralization in predicted structures and the inadequacy of a single structure to represent RNA’s conformational plasticity. We introduce a solution conformation predictor for RNA (SCOPER) to address these challenges. This pipeline integrates kinematics-based conformational sampling with the innovative deep learning model, IonNet, designed for predicting Mg 2+ ion binding sites. Validated through benchmarking against 14 experimental data sets, SCOPER significantly improved the quality of SAXS profile fits by including Mg 2+ ions and sampling of conformational plasticity. We observe that an increased content of monovalent and bivalent ions leads to decreased RNA plasticity. Therefore, carefully adjusting the plasticity and ion density is crucial to avoid overfitting experimental SAXS data. SCOPER is an efficient tool for accurately validating the solution state of RNAs given an initial, sufficiently accurate structure and provides the corrected atomistic model, including ions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging the Gap for Powering Data Centers

The rapid expansion of data centers, primarily driven by artificial intelligence, is outpacing the adaptability of the U.S. electric grid. This report, developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) , presents a gap analysis of some of the infrastructure challenges associated with large-scale data center deployment. Drawing from a national workshop hosted by INL in October of 2025, the report synthesizes stakeholder insights, survey data, and technical discussions to identify critical barriers and research needs. Key findings highlight the growing preference for behind-the-meter generation, the perceived inadequacy of legacy interconnection processes, and the urgent need for improved coordination between utilities, regulators, and data center developers. Environmental concerns such as water use and noise pollution, as well as economic constraints like equipment lead times and cost allocation, are also explored. The report outlines national lab capabilities in modeling, simulation, and technical assistance, and proposes targeted R&D priorities to support resilient, scalable, and efficient integration of data centers into the grid.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗