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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement Systems

Abstract Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s −1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement. Significance Statement Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

High Impedance Fault Detection Through Quasi-Static State Estimation: A Parameter Error Modeling Approach

This paper presents a model for detecting high impedance faults using parameter error modeling and a two step per-phase weighted-least squares state estimation process. The proposed scheme leverages the use of Phasor Measurement Units and synthetic measurements to identify per-phase power flow and injection measurements which indicate a parameter error through ?2 Hypothesis Testing applied to the composed measurement error. Although current and voltage waveforms are commonly analyzed for high-impedance fault detection, wide area power flow and injection measurements, which are already inherent to the state estimation process, also show promise for real-world high-impedance fault detection applications. The error distributions after detection share the measurement function error spread observed in proven parameter error diagnostics and can be applied to high-impedance fault identification. Further, this error spread across measurement functions related to the fault will be clearly discerned from measurement error. Case studies are performed on the IEEE 33-Bus Distribution System along with the proposed model in Simulink.

Cooper, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Error Modeling for Non-Linear State Estimation With Unsynchronized SCADA and µPMU Measurements

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units (µPMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement µPMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements–not only are the SCADA and µPMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions.

Cooper, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of head modeling errors on the spatial frequency representation of MEG

Abstract Objectives. We aim to investigate the effects of head model inaccuracies on signal and source reconstruction accuracies for various sensor array distances to the head. This allows for the assessment of the importance of head modeling for next-generation magnetoencephalography (MEG) sensors, optically-pumped magnetometers (OPM). Approach. A 1-shell boundary element method (BEM) spherical head model with 642 vertices of radius 9 cm and conductivity of 0.33 S m −1 was defined. The vertices were then randomly perturbed radially up to 2%, 4%, 6%, 8% and 10% of the radius. For each head perturbation case, the forward signal was calculated for dipolar sources located at 2 cm, 4 cm, 6 cm and 8 cm from the origin (center of the sphere), and for a 324 sensor array located at 10 cm to 15 cm from the origin. Equivalent current dipole (ECD) source localization was performed for each of these forward signals. The signal for each perturbed spherical head case was then analyzed in the spatial frequency domain, and the signal and ECD errors were quantified relative to the unperturbed case. Main results. In the noiseless and high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) case of approximately ≥6 dB, inaccuracies in our spherical BEM head conductor models lead to increased signal and ECD inaccuracies when sensor arrays are placed closer to the head. This is true especially in the case of deep and superficial sources. In the noisy case however, the higher SNR for closer sensor arrays allows for an improved ECD fit and outweighs the effects of head geometry inaccuracies. Significance. OPMs may be placed directly on the head, as opposed to the more commonly used superconducting quantum interference device sensors which must be placed a few centimeters away from the head. OPMs thus allow for signals of higher spatial resolution to be captured, resulting in potentially more accurate source localizations. Our results suggest that an increased emphasis on accurate head modeling for OPMs may be necessary to fully realize its improved source localization potential.

Yeo, Wan-Jin (ORCID:0000000241417123)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diagnosing Near-Surface Model Errors with Candidate Physics Parameterization Schemes for the Multiphysics Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Ensemble during Winter over the Northeastern United States and Southern Great Plains

Abstract During the winter of 2020/21 an ensemble of FV3-LAM forecasts was produced over the contiguous United States for the Winter Weather Experiment using five physics suites. These forecasts are evaluated with the goal of optimizing physics parameterizations within the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) realm and for selecting suitable physics suites for a multiphysics RRFS ensemble. The five physics suites have different combinations of land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, and surface layer schemes, chosen from those used in current and possible future operational systems and likely to be supported in the operational UFS. Full-season evaluation reveals a persistent near-surface cold bias in the U.S. Northeast from one suite and a nighttime warm bias in the southern Great Plains in another suite, while other suites have smaller biases. A representative case is chosen to diagnose the cause for each of these biases using sensitivity simulations with different physics combinations or modified parameters and verified with additional mesonet observations. The cold bias in the Northeast is attributed to aspects of the Noah-MP LSM over snow cover, where Noah-MP simulates lower soil water content, and thus lower thermal conductivity than other LSMs, leading to less upward ground heat flux during nighttime and consequently lower surface temperature. The nighttime warm bias found in the southern Great Plains is attributed to overestimation of vertical mixing in the K -profile-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (K-EDMF) PBL scheme and insufficient land–atmospheric coupling from the GFS surface layer scheme over short vegetation. A few key parameters driving these systematic biases are identified.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Error Modeling for Prompt Yield Estimation [Slides]

Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (MultiPEM) Toolbox provides a capability for post-detonation characterization focusing on yield estimation; Synthesize information from multiple sensor types; Leverage historical databases to inform statistical models; Allows for rapid or comprehensive analysis; Implemented in R code.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Meteorological Drivers for Errors in Modeled Winds along the Northern California Coast

Abstract An accurate wind resource dataset is required for assessing the potential energy yield of floating offshore wind farms that are expected along the California outer continental shelf. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed and disseminated an updated wind resource dataset offshore of California, using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, referred to as the CA20 dataset. As compared to buoy lidar measurements that have become available recently, the CA20 dataset showed significant positive biases for 100-m wind speeds along Northern California wind energy lease areas. To investigate the meteorological drivers for the model errors, we first consider two 1-yr simulations run with two different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations: the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme (the chosen configuration in the CA20 dataset) and the Yonsei University PBL scheme (which significantly reduces the bias in modeled winds). By comparing the 1-yr simulations to the concurrent lidar buoy observations, we find that errors are larger with the MYNN PBL scheme in warm seasons. We then dive deeper into the analysis by running simulations for short-term (3-day) case studies to evaluate the sensitivity of initial/boundary condition forcings on model results. By analyzing the short-term simulations, we find that during synoptic-scale northerly flows driven by the North Pacific high and inland thermal low, a coastal warm bias in the MYNN simulation is mainly responsible for the modeled wind speed bias by altering the boundary layer thermodynamics. The results of our analysis will help guide the creation of an updated version of the CA20 dataset.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PYOED: AN ETENSIBLE SUITE FOR DATA ASSIMILATION AND MODEL-CONSTRAINED OPTIMAL DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS

SF-23-005 PyOED is a highly extensible scientific package that enables developing and testing model-constrained optimal experimental design (OED) for inverse problems. Specifically, PyOED aims to be a comprehensive Python toolkit for model-constrained OED. The package targets scientists and researchers interested in understanding the details of OED formulations and approaches. It is also meant to enable researchers to experiment with standard and innovative OED technologies with a wide range of test problems (e.g., simulation models). OED, inverse problems (e.g., Bayesian inversion), and data assimilation (DA) are closely related research fields, and their formulations overlap significantly. Thus, PyOED is continuously being expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators. These pieces are added such that they can be permuted to enable testing OED methods in various settings of varying complexities. The PyOED core is completely written in Python and utilizes the inherent object-oriented capabilities; however, PyOED is meant to be extensible rather than scalable. Specifically, PyOED is developed to ``enable rapid development and benchmarking of OED methods with minimal coding effort and to maximize code reutilization.'' PyOED will be continuously expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators.

ATTIA, AHMEDMOHAMED↗