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Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems: 2024 Mission Campaign White Paper

This Sandia National Laboratories Mission Campaign (MC) seeks to create the technical basis that allows national leaders to efficiently assess and manage the digital assurance of high consequence systems. We will call for transformative research that enables efficient (1) development of provably secure systems and secure integration of untrusted products, (2) intelligent threat mitigation, and (3) digital risk-informed engineering trade-offs. Ultimately, this MC will impact multiple national security missions; it will develop an informed Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems (DAHCS) community and expand Sandia partnerships to build this national capability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Implementing an Objectives-Driven, Risk-Informed, and Case-Assured Approach to Safety and Mission Success at NASA

NASA is developing a “Standard for Assurance of Space Flight Safety and Mission Success” that implements an objectives-driven, risk-informed, and case-assured approach to safety and mission success (S&MS) for NASA space flight programs and projects. The standard aligns with the philosophy of risk leadership that has recently been established in NASA policy to assure acceptable levels of flight crew safety and mission success risk. It is consistent with existing NASA risk management requirements and is compatible with NASA program management and systems engineering requirements. The methodology described in the standard is presented in terms of an S&MS assurance framework that is designed to allow substantial flexibility in the specific means by which programs and projects achieve acceptable mission S&MS risk. Such flexibility is necessary to accommodate the increasingly broad range of acquisition strategies employed by NASA, including commercial transportation services, as well as to accommodate the increasingly rapid evolution of space flight-related technologies and practices. A key feature of the S&MS assurance framework is the specification of S&MS success criteria for each life-cycle review (LCR). The S&MS assurance case is structured around these criteria, the satisfaction of which indicates that the program/project is adhering to the S&MS risk posture. This enables the evolving S&MS assurance case to be used as a fundamental program/project submittal at each LCR, where its inherent structure of argument, supported by evidence, directly supports the evaluation of the program/project with respect to the S&MS success criteria, and by extension, the S&MS risk posture. As such, the S&MS assurance case is integral to program/project systems engineering, risk management, and S&MS oversight activities, and provides the principal basis for S&MS risk acceptance by the Decision Authority throughout the program/project life cycle.

42 ENGINEERING

The Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems (DAHCS) Mission Campaign Whitepaper

The DAHCS (pronounced “Dax”) MC is a 7-year, $\$$45 million research portfolio within Sandia’s Laboratory Directed Research and Development program. The DAHCS MC arose in response to a great need: to ensure that the use of digital technologies does not weaken our nation’s high consequence systems. Digital technologies offer many benefits in speed, cost, and flexibility, and we seek to reap those benefits without introducing new system failures. However, digital technologies cannot be evaluated the same way as analog technologies. Initiatives across the nation highlight the capability gap that prevents efficient, effective digital assurance. The Challenge Today’s digital assurance tools, techniques, and methods are inadequate to confidently characterize, assess, and manage digital risk; they are ad hoc, slow, costly, and rarely scalable to increasingly complex digital technologies. The rapidly evolving cyber threat landscape exacerbates this problem because digital assurance now must secure against digital risks now and in the future, including those introduced by rapidly evolving technologies, adversaries, and systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

From Stewardship to Transformation: Toward a Nuclear Enterprise for the 21st Century

The erosion of the global security environment over the last two decades has been rapid and dramatic. It appears also to be accelerating. There are deep and widening concerns in the United States and among its allies and partners that deterrence too has eroded at both the conventional and nuclear levels. The Strategic Posture Commission captured the essence of the problem in its October 2023 report—the United States seeks to meet the challenges of complex multipolar nuclear rivalry in the 21 st century with a slimmed down version of a nuclear deterrent designed in the middle of the 20 th century. With great urgency, the Commission recommended that something more and/or different is needed than simply the replacement of legacy systems with modern variants. But the U.S. nuclear security enterprise was reshaped after the Cold War to support the stockpile stewardship mission—not renewed designed, engineering, and production at scale. It has long fallen short of the agility, flexibility, and adaptiveness periodically asked of it by national leaders. In recent years, however, the message of urgency has been clearly received in the enterprise. Its culture has begun to shift. It has also been received by those in Washington D.C. responsible for funding and guiding the enterprise. The result is an enterprise in transition. Stockpile stewardship has given way to stockpile transformation. Risk aversion is giving way to risk management. Innovation and adaptation have been embraced. Experience to date has yielded some important lessons about what works and what doesn’t in terms of accelerating and delivering the needed innovation and adaptation. It has revealed the enduring character of some challenges. But it has also revealed that a much more agile and effective enterprise is within the national reach—something that will pay important dividends for deterrence, assurance, strategic stability, and peace.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF

Cluster Dynamics Modeling Needs for the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program

This milestone report aims to identify and assess the cluster dynamics (CD) modeling requirements within the Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program and to communicate these needs to the DOE-NE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The goal is to ensure NEAMS is well-informed about the CD modeling requirements to support AMMT's mission of accelerating the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced structural materials and manufacturing for nuclear energy applications. CD modeling is an essential tool for predicting the degradation of structural materials under irradiation, which is a key component of AMMT's accelerated qualification process. The AMMT program focuses on both additively manufactured and wrought structural alloys, such as laser powder-bed fusion 316H austenitic stainless steel, alloy 709, Haynes 244, and alloy 617. These materials require a generalized CD modeling framework to facilitate rapid model development and computational simulation. A flexible, generalized CD software, similar to the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework, would enable modeling of various cluster types, including defect clusters, defect-solute clusters, and multicomponent clusters, incorporating thermodynamics and kinetics parameters. Radiation effects, microstructural feature evolution, and multi-dimensional modeling are critical considerations for the CD model. The usability of the CD code should allow for easy modification and coupling with MOOSE-based simulations. Additionally, the software should adhere to Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 standards, include a testing suite for verification and validation, and be version-controlled within a national laboratory-managed Git repository. Benchmark problems are needed to assess code predictions and performance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Data Qualification Report: SRNL Glass Composition-Properties (ComPro) Database

The Savannah River National Laboratory Glass Composition-Properties (ComPro) database is an extensive database containing pertinent composition and durability data to support the accelerated clean-up mission at the Defense Waste Processing Facility. The activities described in this data qualification report were performed to support the information contained in the database. There were two objectives of the original data qualification process. The first objective was to review supporting documentation to determine if DOE/RW-0333P Quality Assurance Requirements and Description had been implemented during the original work. If the DOE/RW-0333P Quality Assurance Requirements and Description had not been directly implemented during the original work, the second objective was to determine if the controls that were used were adequate to meet the intent of the DOE/RW-0333P Quality Assurance Requirements and Description. The results of these two objectives and the activities performed to support these decisions are described in this document. An assessment of each dataset was made to determine if the data were RW-0333P Compliant, RW-0333P Equivalent or Non-RW-0333P Compliant. The original data qualification was performed in accordance with E7, Conduct of Engineering Manual, Procedure 3.70, Revision 4, Qualification of Data. The specific method that was used was Equivalent Controls as described in E7, 3.70. Revision 2 of this document adds supporting information for the RW-0333P Compliant datasets added to Revision 3 of the database.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Vulcan Test Platform: Demonstrating the Data Center as a Flexible Grid Asset

Explosive data center demand is outpacing grid infrastructure development. AI workloads and hyperscale cloud growth are creating unprecedented power requirements, while traditional grid expansion faces multi-year development timelines, regulatory hurdles, and decarbonization challenges. Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners recognized this impending crisis years ago and founded Verrus to develop an innovative solution: data centers that function as grid assets rather than passive loads. The Verrus approach integrates proprietary grid-aware controls with battery energy storage systems (BESS) in a medium-voltage architecture that delivers three critical capabilities: Fast-responding demand flexibility that can service requests from the utility within 10 seconds, Uninterrupted transition to islanded operation during grid disturbances, Continuous uptime assurance while maintaining all customer service level commitments Through Verrus' strategic partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), we validated these capabilities on Vulcan, a 70 MW utility-scale test platform powered by NREL's ARIES Virtual Emulation Environment. This deployment-ready technology has successfully demonstrated that Verrus data centers can deliver meaningful grid services while maintaining mission-critical reliability. This technical report outlines the design, methodology, and results of this emulated deployment, demonstrating that data centers can play a pivotal role in enhancing grid flexibility and reliability, without sacrificing service level guarantees.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Low Purge and Mercury Recovery Testing with Sludge Batch 10 Tank 40 Simulant

Researchers at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) have completed testing as requested by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) to perform experiments to determine the impact of using a lower or inert purge in Sludge Batch (SB) 10 processing under the Nitric-Glycolic Acid (NGA) flowsheet. A key objective of this testing was also to determine the mercury speciation and recovery during each experiment. The testing was performed as part of the SB10 Technical Task Request (TTR) and Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP). Two sets of tests were performed, and a Run Plan was approved prior to each set of experiments to document the planned testing. Three initial experiments were completed to determine whether a low air purge would be beneficial to CPC processing at higher acid stoichiometry (110%) based on the Koopman minimum acid (KMA) equation (116% Hsu). One of the tests, an inert nitrogen purge experiment, was also completed to demonstrate that excluding oxygen did not introduce any new hazards. The experiments were designed to be identical except for the change in purge gas and purge flowrate from run to run. After reviewing the results from the initial three experiments, six additional tests were proposed by SRNL to support the lower purge study and to look for processing alternatives for improving mercury recovery. These additional six tests were all completed at a very low acid stoichiometry to mimic the pH experienced during processing in DWPF (~7). DWPF is processing SB10 sludge at an acid stoichiometry of 90% based on the Hsu equation. The additional SRNL experiments were performed at an acid stoichiometry of 62.5% KMA stoichiometry (66.3% Hsu) to produce a Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) product with a pH of about 7. All experiments used simulants of both SWPF streams, although no entrained solvent was added during any of the experiments

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Characterization of Tank 9H Annulus Sample in Support of Residual Material Inventory Determinations

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was requested by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) to provide sample preparation and characterization of the Tank 9H annulus sample in support of Residual Material Inventory Determinations. One Tank 9H sample in three vials [HTF-9-25-13, HTF-9-25-14 and HTF-9-25-15], with each vial containing approximately 200 mL of the Tank 9H annulus salt solution, were delivered to the SRNL Shielded Cells for sample preparation and characterizations in February 2025. The density of the “as-received” solution contained in each of the three Tank 9H annulus sample vials were determined followed by a solid-liquid separation on each one using 0.45-micron Nalgene® nylon filter membranes. The resulting filtrates were combined to form the Tank 9H annulus sample with a total volume of about 600 mL. The combined wet solid fractions, about a total of 4.8 grams of salt material, remaining on the filter membranes were air-dried in the Shielded Cells for 72 hours. The total weight of the air-dried solids was 2.1 grams. These air-dried solids were washed with deionized water (DI water) at a phase ratio of 60 mL DI water/gram of solids to recover insoluble solids, if any. No visible or measurable quantity of insoluble solids were recovered after DI water washing of the air-dried solids because the air-dried solids completely dissolved in the DI water. The solid fraction-wash water was not combined with the 600 mL of the filtrate solution, and the resulting solution was not screened or analyzed for radionuclides. Aliquot sample volumes of the undiluted Tank 9H annulus sample were sent to the SRNL analytical services groups for radionuclides, elementals, anions and total mercury analysis by various methods including radiochemical separations/counting methods, inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES), and Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS) and special preparations. All sample analyses were performed in triplicate. This report presents the analytical characterization results for the Tank 9H annulus sample. The results are also reported where analytical methods yielded additional analytes, other than those requested by SRMC. In the characterization of the Tank 9H annulus sample, the detection limits for all the analytes, as specified in the Technical Task Request (TTR) and Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP), were met.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Evaluation of New Additions to OLI Software in Predicting Mercuric and Mercurous Species in Liquid Waste Operations

Speciation of mercury during the pretreatment steps of tank waste processing is critical to successful mercury removal prior to vitrification during Liquid Waste Operations (LWO) at SRS. OLI software has been used to predict mercury speciation and activity throughout LWO. The OLI software operates based on a thermodynamic framework called the Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) framework. The MSE framework allows prediction in theoretically infinitely dilute to concentrated mixtures (e.g., purely solute solutions). Before modification to the MSE framework databanks, certain critical mercury species were missing in the MSE databank, and some thermodynamic data needed to be updated for the OLI software to accurately predict mercury chemical species in SRS waste tanks. To better reflect streams across LWO, new mercury species were integrated into the MSE database. To evaluate the changes to the OLI MSE framework per the Technical Task Request (TTR) and the Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP), waste stream compositions from Tanks 38, 43, and Tank 50 decontaminated salt solution (DSS) were used as model inputs. Models were developed and executed using both the old and new databases. Compositional analyses from caustic Tank 50 DSS and caustic Tanks 38 and 43 were used as the input streams. These streams represent the most comprehensive chemical data sets where both mercury and tank constituents were measured together. Results for Tank 50 DSS predict HgO as the predominant species in both databases. Both methyl and dimethyl Hg species are present when the new database is ‘on’ and are not predicted with the new database turned ‘off’. The new database predicts a greater amount of HgO and a greater fraction of it in the solid phase. Pourbaix diagrams (potential vs. pH) generated for each Tank 50 DSS were identical regardless of which database was used. Elemental Hg and HgO were predicted in the water stable region under basic conditions. Tanks 38 and 43 follow similar trends as the Tank 50 DSS models. Unlike Tanks 38 and 50 DSS, the Tank 43 Pourbaix plot shows a region of stability for an aqueous HgOHCO3 - species between approximately pH 7-11. In all streams, when MeHg+ is included in the inputs, the new database predicts aqueous MeHgOH as the dominant species. If elemental or dimethyl mercury is in the waste stream, the new database model predicts they are unchanged and remain in those states and quantities. Additionally, the total mercury values are reported for both the measured input data and the OLI output data for all considered tanks. The summary indicates that the percentage error between the measured and calculated values is less than 1% in all cases The reconciliations and generation of the Pourbaix diagrams for Tank 50 DSS took approximately ten times longer with the new database ‘on’. In addition, over the course of that time, models with the new database ‘on’ were more likely to crash or display an error. Some modest performance improvements were noted when modeling with an i7 processor versus an i5. An example error is found in Appendix A. Furthermore, Appendix B provides V&V for two chemical systems analyzed with the OLI software, results were satisfactory. It is recommended to utilize the new databases (i.e., HCO.ddb and SR-Hg.ddb) in future Savannah River Mission Completion applications of OLI to represent pseudo steady-state. Furthermore, the integration and utilization of the new databases (i.e., HCO.ddb and SR-Hg.ddb) in modeling applications (e.g., Aspen) is also recommended.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W