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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin (Final Technical Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the project "Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin." Over the course of six years of collaboration between Battelle and project partners, all stated objectives of the program have been completed, including full geological characterization of the TBR trend (See companion report for Task2), laboratory and modeling experiments to determine the optimum composition and design of CO 2 -EOR operations in the TBR trend, execution of a field test of chemically-enhanced CO 2 in a TBR well, and integration of the data and learnings gathered during these efforts into a full-trend development plan. Detailed reporting on these activities, their outcomes, and implications for trend-wide development is provided in the report. This report and encompassed data will provide TBR field operators with detailed information on what worked, what did not work, and how to proceed with production optimization of their TBR assets using chemically-enhanced CO 2 -EOR. CO 2 -EOR is a relatively well understood and broadly implemented strategy for increasing incremental production across the oil and gas industry, but its application has been primarily focused on reservoirs with limited heterogeneity. The intention of this project was show first that the same physical mechanisms that improve recovery factors in homogeneous reservoirs (namely wettability alteration, viscosity alteration, oil swelling, and mobility control) are at play in heterogeneous reservoirs. This was proven by the project’s laboratory studies and dynamic simulations, with the potential exception of mobility control, which needs further study. The second intention was to demonstrate via direct field testing that CO 2 -EOR can work in a strongly heterogeneous reservoir. While the field test strategy implemented during this project did not succeed in producing oil, data gathered during the test sheds light on what may work for field operators who try chemically-enhanced CO 2 -EOR within their own reservoirs, significantly reducing the level of uncertainty carried by first-of-a-kind commercial efforts that could (and should) follow this test. Simultaneously, the project has identified several large-volume ethanol plants and other sources of CO 2 emissions in the region and provided a handrail that CO 2 emitters and field operators can leverage to capture, transport, and inject that CO 2 into their fields. This project has also shown that, in many cases, the economics of CO 2 -EOR in the TBR are attractive. And finally, by completing a project of this scope in the southern Michigan Basin, the project has contributed to the knowledge base and operational experience of field operators, state regulatory agencies, local service companies, and state universities, with CO 2 -EOR projects which should allow follow-on projects to proceed safely and efficiently.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prospective Seal Unit Spatial Extent Database for U.S. Sedimentary Basins

The Prospective Seal Unit Spatial Extent Database for U.S. Sedimentary Basins contains a series of spatial datasets representing spatial extents of publicly available data for caprock and seal rock units within the Appalachian Basin, Denver-Julesburg Basin, Great Valley Basin (Sacramento and San Joaquin Basins), Illinois Basin, Michigan Basin, San Juan Basin, U.S. Gulf Coast Basin, and Williston Basin. The database is designed to support carbon storage feasibility and resources assessment for carbon transport and storage (CTS) projects while displaying the spatial extent of prospective seal units and provide a guide to the original data source. This database leverages publicly available data resources from authoritative sources (e.g. U.S. Geological Survey, State Geologic Surveys, and published reports), and aims to help guide users to understand the seal unit's spatial coverage and data gaps from the regional to sub-basin/field scale. The database is organized by seal unit/formation, including the spatial extent for data found to be available for the seal unit. The various datasets represented include spatial extents of the lithologic formation, depth to top structural contour maps, and thickness/isopach maps. Included in this submission are the following resources: 1. Geodatabase/Dataset: “prospective-seal-unit-extents-2025.gdb” 2. ReadMe: “readme-prospective-seal-unit-spatial-extent-dataset-2025.pdf” 3. Data Catalog: “prospective-seal-unit-spatial-extents-data-catalog-2025.xlsx” 4. Data Sources Key: “data-source.csv” Please see NETL disclaimers here: https://netl.doe.gov/home/disclaimer

Basin↗
DOE OSTI2025

MRCI Subtask 2.1: Defining Sub-Regional Carbon Storage Systems Final Technical Summary Report

In order to assess the regional and subregional geologic framework of the MRCI area and expand carbon dioxide (CO2) storage characterization efforts in this larger region, the current state of geologic knowledge relative to carbon storage (CS) has been summarized by compiling available geologic data and interpretive results into a centralized resource under Subtask 2.1. The MRCI region is a large area, which includes (1) part of the Forest City Basin and Western Arches, (2) Illinois Basin, (3) Upper Mississippi Embayment, (4) Michigan Basin, (5) Central Arches, (6) Appalachian Basin, and (7) Atlantic Coastal Plain and West Atlantic basins. Basins and arches are subdivided into areas of similar geology based on geologic structures and state-specific stratigraphic nomenclature. A concerted effort was made to present the current understanding of rock-unit stratigraphy in the subsurface of each basin and arch region (and subdivisions therein). Rock units are characterized based on their relative CS potential (saline reservoirs, confining intervals, etc.) within CS systems. CS systems are defined by regional confining units (usually thick, widespread shales), and contain all reservoirs and strata between the regional confining units. Report Authors – Steve Greb and Tom Sparks (Kentucky Geological Survey), Mark Kelley, Sanjay Mawalkar, John Hershberger, Priya Ravi Ganesh, Derrick James, and Stuart Skopec (Battelle), Charles Bopp, Yaghoob Lasemi and Hannes Leetaru (deceased) (Illinois State Geological Survey), Kristin Carter (Pennsylvania Geological Survey), William Harrison (Michigan Geological Repository for Research and Education – Michigan Geological Survey), Susan Pool (West Virginia Geological and Economic Survey), James McDonald (Ohio Geological Survey), John Schmelz (Rutgers University), Ryan Clark (Iowa Geological Survey). Other Technical Contributors – Seth Carpenter and John Hickman (Kentucky Geological Survey), Jessica Moore, Eric Lewis, Philip Dinterman, Timothy Vance, and Gary Daft (West Virginia Geological and Economic Survey), Michele Cooney, Robin Anthony, Cheyenne Woodward, and Katherine Schmid (Pennsylvania Geological Survey), Autumn Haagsma and Amber Conner (Michigan Geological Repository for Research and Education – Michigan Geological Survey), Kenneth Miller (Rutgers University), Ashley Douds and Valerie Beckham-Feller (Indiana Geological & Water Survey), Michael Solis (Ohio Geological Survey).

Appalachian,Arches,Forest City,Illinois,MRCI,Michi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Perch 3D

Processed SEGY files from the Perch 3D seismic area in the Michigan Basin. Data was used to make estimates of the stress field in the study area. Data was processed from Texseis, Inc.

3D↗
DOE OSTI2022

Task 5 Field Scale Stress Modeling Scripts and Data

Project data and Matlab scripts for Task 5 of the project “A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO2 Storage”. Project includes the static earth models, grids and other data used for simulation and calibration of the two case studies addressed in the project, referred to herein as the “FutureGen2” model (Illinois) and the “Perch” model (Otsego county, Michigan). Large Dataset, please contact EDXSupport@netl.doe.gov

FutureGen2↗
DOE OSTI2022

Perch Area Petrel Project

The SEM in this Petrel project is based, in part, on an earlier model prepared at Battelle (1) that covers Michigan's Northern Pinnacle Reef trend. While the existing SEM focused on the Niagaran section, this Petrel project expands the framework to included overlying and underlying geologic zones. Where available, geomechanical logs were incorporated into the model.

carbonates↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends of Sediment Resuspension and Budget in Southern Lake Michigan Under Changing Wave Climate and Hydrodynamic Environment

Sediment suspension and transport driven by waves and currents play a significant role in both the ecological and physical environments of large lakes. Lake Michigan has faced a rapidly increasing water level associated with intensified wind waves in the past decade. To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and associated coastal sediment budgets in southern Lake Michigan, a 30-year (1991–2020) hindcast was performed using a coupled wave-current-sediment model (SWAN-FVCOM-CSTMS). We found that in southern Lake Michigan, the basin-wide mean SSC increased, and the coastal sediment loss accelerated dramatically, corresponding with intensified waves, currents and lake water level rises over the past decade. The basin-wide mean SSC, coastal sediment loss, wave height, wind speed, current speed, and water level in southern Lake Michigan are highly correlated. Spatially, the results reveal decreases in coastal SSC and sediment loss in the western portion of the southern basin, while the eastern sectors show an increase in both metrics. This reflects a clear shift in the wave climate and hydrodynamic environment. The alterations in long-term coastal sediment budgets imply that considerable shoreline transformations are being influenced by modifications in the wave climate. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSC and coastal sediment budgets is crucial for strategic water resource management and coastal infrastructure planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Scale Structural Features Database

The Basin-Scale Structural Features database provides spatial datasets of faults, fractures, folds, and earthquakes compiled from public, authoritative sources (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey and State Geological Surveys) and aggregated into derivative forms to support subsurface assessments. Recognizing that characterizing basin-scale structural features requires interpreting data that are often ambiguous or lack key information, the source data were evaluated using a knowledge-data framework and geospatial fuzzy logic method (Justman et al., 2020) to represent both measured (observed) and predicted (inferred or potential) structural features as derivative datasets. This workflow employs conceptual models for known structural features and predicted structural features, incorporating geospatial data to estimate potential, even with limited data. The aim is to aid and support an understanding of basin-scale features and identify potential gaps in data and knowledge. As of 4/30/2025, the database includes resources for nine sedimentary basins: Appalachian, Denver, U.S. Gulf Coast, Illinois, Michigan, Permian, Sacramento, San Joquin and Williston. The database is organized by basin and then data category: 1) Faults, fractures, folds, 2) Earthquakes, 3) Topographic, 4) Structural contours and isopachs, 5) Geophysical, and 6) Structural feature density assessment maps.

basin scale↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Covers J and K

Drainage structures are used in urban street and highway systems to capture stormwater runoff. These structures typically consist of catch basins fitted with grates, inlets, or combination grate/inlet configurations that collect runoff and convey it through buried drainage systems. They are strategically placed within curb-and-gutter systems to enhance public safety by efficiently removing water from roadways and thereby reducing the risk of hydroplaning. The performance of drainage structures is commonly evaluated in terms of hydraulic efficiency, defined as the percentage of flow captured by the basin relative to the total flow reaching the structure. Understanding the hydraulic performance of these structures allows designers to properly space inlets, resulting in cost-effective designs that also help ensure the safety of the traveling public. MDOT uses a variety of drainage structures for runoff capture, as documented in Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) Drainage Manual. Many of these structures incorporate sinusoidal-type grates that are not addressed in HEC-22. Because physical modeling of these structures has been limited, further analysis is needed to verify their capture efficiency. Under current MDOT practice, the capture efficiency of these grates is estimated by assuming performance similar to that of a comparably sized reticuline grate described in HEC22. The first phase of this effort, titled Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C, focused on evaluating the hydraulic performance of MDOT’s Cover C grate. Cover C was selected as the initial test candidate because its sinusoidal pattern is representative of other MDOT grates, while it is typically used in high-volume, higher-speed applications. A similar version, Cover CX, is used on interstate highways but does not include transverse bars for bicycle safety. The current second phase of the study expands this work to evaluate MDOT’s Covers J and K. These grates were selected for additional analysis to further assess the hydraulic performance of MDOT drainage structures that are not directly represented by grate configurations in HEC-22. The results of this phase will build on the findings from the Cover C analysis and support improved understanding of the capture efficiency of MDOT’s standard drainage grates. This report is intended to serve as a companion document to the earlier study, Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C [3]. The present work applies the same overall CFD-based evaluation approach to MDOT Covers J and K and compares the resulting performance trends with those previously identified for Cover C. In particular, both studies assess on-grade interception efficiency, sag-location hydraulic capacity, and the effects of partial obstruction relative to HEC-22-based design estimates.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C

Drainage structures are used to capture stormwater runoff in streets and highways in urban environments. These drainage structures, which typically consist of catch basins with grates, inlets, or combination grates/inlets, collect stormwater runoff and discharge through buried conveyance systems. They are strategically placed for public safety in curb and gutter systems to provide efficient drainage of water from roadways and thus reduce the risk of hydroplaning. The performance of drainage structures is measured in terms of hydraulic efficiency, which is defined as the percentage of flow captured by the basin as compared to the total flow drainage to the structure. Understanding of the performance of these drainage structures helps designers properly space inlets to promote an economic design that ensures the safety of the traveling public. The current design methodology used to determine drainage structure follows guidelines established in the current Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) Drainage Manual (2006). The guidelines in the MDOT Drainage Manual were modeled after the Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) Hydraulic Engineering Circular 22 “Urban Drainage Design” (HEC-22). HEC-22 includes empirically derived equations to calculate the interception capacity of drainage structures for several commonly used grate configurations, such as the parallel bar, curved vane and tilt bar grates, which are based on a research study performed by Burgi et al. in the 1970s. MDOT uses several drainage structures to capture runoff that are detailed as Standard Plans. Many of these drainage structures utilize sinusoidal type grates that are not described in HEC-22. Physical modeling of these structures has been limited, posing the need to have them analyzed to verify their capture efficiency. Current MDOT practice is to assume a similar sized reticuline grate, as described in HEC-22, for capture efficiencies. Until recently, evaluating the hydraulic performance of drainage structures was limited to physical modeling in a hydraulics laboratory. With advances in engineering software and computing power, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling has become a more cost-effective alternative. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) provides states the option to evaluate their drainage structures using CFD through the Transportation Pooled Fund Program. This study, “Computational Analysis of Hydraulic Efficiency of Michigan DOT Cover C,” was carried out using the pooled fund. MDOT’s Cover C was chosen as the first test candidate, given its similar sinusoidal pattern to other MDOT grates, but it is typically used for high-volume, higher speed applications. A similar version, Cover CX, is used on interstate highways but does not have traverse bars for bicycle safety. Additional grates may be considered for evaluation in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea replenish depleting aquifers

Tropical cyclones intensified globally in recent decades, delivering extreme precipitation deeper inland. While much research has focused on the role of climate change in tropical cyclone intensification, less is known about their contribution to groundwater recharge, especially in arid regions where freshwater is scarce and aquifers are being depleted. Here we quantify cyclone-driven groundwater recharge across the Arabian Peninsula from 2002 to 2021 using satellite-based total water storage and hydrodynamic modeling. Findings show that cyclones contributed up to 60% of total precipitation in the southern Arabian Peninsula. Cyclone Mekunu (2018) alone delivered 30 km 3 of precipitation inland, resulting in a net groundwater recharge of 3.2 ± 1.2 km 3 in the Najd subbasin. These findings reveal that tropical cyclones play a crucial role in replenishing groundwater resources in arid regions. Our approach provides a framework for quantifying recharge in ungauged arid basins worldwide, offering valuable insights for climate-resilient water resource management.

Saleh, Hassan [Western Michigan Univ., Kalamazoo M↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"

This data package contains the associated data and scripts for Nagamoto, E., Ombadi, M., Ciulla, F. et al. Widespread drought-driven declines in streamflows and water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin during 1998-2022. Commun Earth Environ 7, 734 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03890-5. This purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the 21st century drought on water quantity and quality at catchments throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We used stream flow, water temperature, specific conductance, air temperature, precipitation, and catchment attribute data for over 200 sites in the UCRB, collected from the National Water Information System using Basin3D (Varadharajan, 2023), GAGESII (Falcone, 2010), and the Google Earth Engine. We identified years of severe drought between 1998 and 2022 using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), then calculated the relative change percentage of the stream flow, water temperature, and specific conductance from drought versus non-drought years. We used the attribute information from GAGESII to investigate what physical traits of catchments are associated streamflow vulnerability (greater relative change) or resilience to drought. We used land cover data from the National Land Cover Database (USGS, 2024) to assess any changes to physical attributes that may not be represented in the static attributes information in GAGESII. To increase data availability, we modeled stream temperature using methods from Willard, 2023. While the study period is water years 1998 to 2022, the raw water quantity and quality data extends to 1950 and the meteorological data extends to 1980. The data and code can be downloaded via the UCRB_drought.zip. Within the zip, the files are organized as follows: - INPUTS: Contains all input data used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb - OUTPUTS: Contains all intermediate data created from UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb as well as final products including the calculated Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - climatic_variables: The code used to collect meteorologic data from Google Earth Engine - feature_importance: The code used for the catchment attributes analysis - preprocessing: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - pyeto: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - calculations: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - plotting: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - README.md - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb: The code used to prep raw data for the analysis - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impact.ipynb: The code which uses the prepped raw data for analysis, and plots all figures - requirements_ucrb-drought_v2.yml: The requirements file to create a virtual environment and Jupyter Lab kernel to run the code The INPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_RAW" folder contains raw data for streamflow, water temperature, and specific conductance in a ".h5" file. The "NLCD_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files with annual land cover percentages for counties within the UCRB. The "MET_RAW" folder contains a ".csv" file with monthly meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) for the sites in the UCRB which was obtained from code in the climatic_variables folder. The "GAGESII" folder contains ".csv" files with physical catchment attribute variables for catchments across the country. The "WT_LSTM_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated WT (Willard, 2023) and the associated RMSEs. The "Upper_Colorado_River_Basin_Boundary" folder contains geographic data including a shapefile for plotting in the UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb. The "RESERVOIRS_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files for each reservoir in the UCRB with daily reservoir storage. There are also two files in the INPUTS folder that have combined reservoir storage data and reservoir metadata. The OUTPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_data" folder contains a folder "Water_year" with the associated cleaned data, metadata, and data availability information in ".csv" files, a folder "Median_Relchange" with the relative change comparing drought to non-drought years in ".csv" files, and a folder "Peak95_Min5_Relchange" that has ".csv" files for the relative change in peak (95th %) and minimum (5th %) variables. The "NLCD_data" folder contains the difference in land cover from the beginning to end of the study period and the percentage of the county that is within UCRB bounds can be found in Nagamoto et al (2025)). The "MET_data" folder contains separated monthly air temperature and precipitation data and the calculated PET in ".csv" files. The "SPEI_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated SPEI values (one restricted to the study period and the other with information from the entire MET data period). The "Paper_Tables" folder contains two ".csv" files containing site information and data availability and information about the GAGESII trait aggregated categories. The base directory includes the file “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files and the file “dd.csv” for data dictionaries. Scripts for preprocessing, analysis, and figure generation are located in the associated GitHub repository found at [https://github.com/iNAIADS/drought-impacts/tree/develop/UCRB-drought]. UPDATE 1: Title and code file updated to match submitted manuscript 10-15-2025. UPDATE 2: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 3-4-2026. UPDATE 3: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 6-7-2026. ** NOTE: DD and FLMD have not been updated yet. UPDATE 4: Added associated Manuscript information and DD and FLMD have been updated. To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX: @misc{nagamoto2025drought, author = {Emily Nagamoto and Fabio Ciulla and Mohammad Ombadi and Jared Willard and Rosemary Carroll and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"}, year = {2025}, doi = {10.15485/2551894}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2551894} }

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure of the Ecuadorian Upper Plate From a Joint Seismic‐Gravity Inversion

The Ecuadorian portion of the South American subduction zone presents an interesting case study in the structure and complex evolution of an upper plate. There are outstanding questions about its tectonic history, composition, and magmatic processes. While previous studies have employed ambient noise tomography to image the Ecuadorian upper plate, surface wave inversions alone often lack sensitivity at relevant shallow depths. This limitation can be overcome with an independent, complementary data set, such as gravity. We have jointly inverted Rayleigh wave phase velocities and Bouguer gravity anomalies to provide a more detailed seismic velocity model of the Ecuadorian upper plate. Our joint inversion has yielded several key improvements from previous models. First, we observe much shallower slow velocities beneath major basins (the Manabí, Progreso, and Gulf of Guayaquil), better aligning with expected basin structure. Second, we identify a high-velocity block beneath the entire forearc, corresponding to the Piñon Terrane, with velocities suggesting the presence of ultramafic material. Third, we highlight a new narrow swath of slow velocities beneath the Ecuadorian Andes, which closely follows the active volcanoes along the Eastern Cordillera. The extent of these slow velocities coincides with the termination of active arc volcanism and the predicted location of the subducted Carnegie Ridge. The predicted compositions for the mid to lower crust in the region preclude a purely compositional explanation for these velocities, suggesting that some level of partial melt is necessary.

Birkey, Andrew [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2025

Velocity- and pressure-based metrics for estimating strike injuries during fish passage through hydro turbines

Hydropower is a crucial source of clean and reliable energy worldwide, and its importance will continue to grow. To enhance the environmental sustainability of hydropower development and operations, it is essential to predict the strike injury rates of fish passing through turbines accurately and cost-effectively. However, conventional experiments involving a large number of live fish are still commonly conducted in practice, and previous attempts mainly focused on the dose-response relationships at an individual level or relative comparisons of biological characterization between different conditions. Thus, this study proposes two novel strike metrics based on velocity and pressure (M V and M P ) measured by the cutting-edge Sensor Fish (SF) technology, designed to quantify the biological effects of strikes and collisions between fish and rigid hydraulic structures. SF measurements and 48-hour survival rates of live fish from a study conducted at the Ice Harbor Dam on the Snake River were used to establish thresholds for the two proposed metrics. These metrics and thresholds were then applied to three additional SF studies conducted at hydropower facilities featuring Kaplan turbines within the Columbia River basin. Results from the application of the strike metrics indicate that the estimated survival rates derived from both metrics agree well with previously reported live fish survival rates. Furthermore, the study identified specific passage regions with elevated risks of fish mortality due to strikes and collisions. Overall, the proposed strike metrics present a reliable and cost-effective approach to reducing reliance on live fish and lowering costs in fish passage studies.

Biological characterization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Representation of Human Actions in Large‐Scale Hydrological Models: Challenges and Future Research Directions

Characterizing the impact of human actions on terrestrial water fluxes and storages at multi-basin, continental, and global scales has long been on the agenda of scientists engaged in climate science, hydrology, and water resources systems analysis. This need has resulted in a variety of modeling efforts focused on the representation of water infrastructure operations. Yet, the representation of human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological models is still relatively crude, fragmented across models, and often achieved at coarse resolutions (~10–100 km) that cannot capture local water management decisions. In this commentary, we argue that the concomitance of four drivers and innovations is poised to change the status quo: “hyper-resolution” hydrological models (~0.1–1 km), multi-sector modeling, satellite missions able to monitor the outcome of human actions, and machine learning are creating a fertile environment for human-water research to flourish. We then outline four challenges that chart future research in hydrological modeling: (a) creating hyper-resolution global data sets of water management practices, (b) improving the characterization of anthropogenic interventions on water quantity, stream temperature, and sediment transport, (c) improving model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, and (d) reducing the computational requirements associated with the successful exploration of these challenges. Overcoming them will require addressing modeling, computational, and data development needs that cut across the hydrology community, thereby requiring a major communal effort.

catchment hydrology↗