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NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

INTRODUCTION: The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers and the sporadic meteor background. It is commonly but incorrectly assumed that meteoroid impacts primarily occur during meteor showers; instead, the vast majority of hazardous meteoroids belong to the sporadic complex. Unlike meteor showers, which persist for a few hours to a few weeks, sporadic meteoroids impact the Earth's atmosphere and spacecraft throughout the year. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. The sporadic complex, despite its year-round activity, is not isotropic in its directionality. Instead, their apparent points of origin, or radiants, are organized into groups called "sources". The speed, directionality, and size distribution of these sporadic sources are modeled by the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), which is currently in its second major release version (MEMR2) [Moorhead et al., 2015]. MEM provides the meteoroid flux relative to a user-provided spacecraft trajectory; it provides the total flux as well as the flux per angular bin, speed interval, and on specific surfaces (ram, wake, etc.). Because the sporadic complex dominates the meteoroid flux, MEM is the most appropriate model to use in spacecraft design. Although showers make up a small fraction of the meteoroid environment, they can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. Thus, it can be valuable to consider showers when assessing risks associated with vehicle operations that are brief in duration. To assist with such assessments, the MEO issues an annual forecast that reports meteor shower fluxes as a function of time and compares showers with the time-averaged total meteoroid flux. This permits missions to do quick assessments of the increase in risk posed by meteor showers.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: The Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers and the sporadic meteor background. It is commonly but incorrectly assumed that meteoroid impacts primarily occur during meteor showers; instead, the vast majority of hazardous meteoroids belong to the sporadic complex. Unlike meteor showers, which persist for a few hours to a few weeks, sporadic meteoroids impact the Earth's atmosphere and spacecraft throughout the year. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. The sporadic complex, despite its year-round activity, is not isotropic in its directionality. Instead, their apparent points of origin, or radiants, are organized into groups called "sources". The speed, directionality, and size distribution of these sporadic sources are modeled by the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), which is currently in its second major release version (MEMR2) [Moorhead et al., 2015]. MEM provides the meteoroid flux relative to a user-provided spacecraft trajectory; it provides the total flux as well as the flux per angular bin, speed interval, and on specific surfaces (ram, wake, etc.). Because the sporadic complex dominates the meteoroid flux, MEM is the most appropriate model to use in spacecraft design. Although showers make up a small fraction of the meteoroid environment, they can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. Thus, it can be valuable to consider showers when assessing risks associated with vehicle operations that are brief in duration. To assist with such assessments, the MEO issues an annual forecast that reports meteor shower fluxes as a function of time and compares showers with the time-averaged total meteoroid flux. This permits missions to do quick assessments of the increase in risk posed by meteor showers. Section II describes MEM in more detail and describes our current efforts to improve its characteristics for a future release. Section III describes the annual shower forecast and highlights recent improvements made to its algorithm and inputs.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) 3: NASA’s Newest Meteoroid Model

Meteoroid impacts threaten spacecraft and astronauts at all locations within the Solar System. At certain altitudes in low-Earth orbit, orbital debris dominates the risk, but meteoroids are more significant within 250 km of the Earth’s surface and above 4000 km [1]. In interplanetary space, orbital debris is nonexistent and meteoroids constitute the entire population of potentially dangerous impactors. The NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) produces the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) to support meteoroid impact risk assessments [2]; MEM is a stand-alone piece of software that describes the flux, speed, directionality, and bulk density of meteoroids striking a spacecraft on a user-supplied trajectory. The MEO released version 3 of MEM in 2019 [3]. This proceeding describes the orbital populations that form the core of MEM, highlights key differences between MEM 3 and its predecessors, discusses the implications of these changes for spacecraft, summarizes our validation against meteor and in-situ data, and delineates the model’s limitations.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Deriving the velocity distribution of meteoroids from the measured meteoroid impact directionality on the various LDEF surfaces

Because of spacecraft motion, a much higher flux of meteoroids is expected to strike the leading (apex) surface of a spacecraft than is expected to strike the trailing (antapex) surface. The ratio of fluxes (apex to antapex) depends on the velocity distribution of meteoroids entering the Earth's atmosphere. The ratio ranges from 5.7 to 9.2 at constant meteoroid mass for the three velocity distributions examined. The velocity of impact is also greater, on average, on the apex surface than on the antapex surface, and the impacts tend to be more normal to the surface. This means that the meteoroids that make a crater of a given diameter are less massive than those that strike the antapex surface. These effects further increase the apex-antapex abundance ratio at constant crater diameter compared to that at constant mass. For craters 100 microns in diameter on 6061 T6 aluminum on the Long Duration Exposure Facility, the ratios obtained on various surfaces are given in tabular form.

Zook, Herbert A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM)A Meteoroid Model for the Inner Solar System

In an attempt to overcome some of the deficiencies of existing meteoroid models, NASA's Space Environments and Effects Program sponsored a three year research effort at the University of Western Ontario. The resulting understanding of the sporadic meteoroid environment - particularly the nature and distribution of the sporadic sources - was then incorporated into a new meteoroid environment model (MEM) by members of the Space Environments Team at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. This paper discusses some of the revolutionary aspects of MEM which include: a) identification of the sporadic radiants with real sources of meteoroids, such as comets, b) a physics-based approach which yields accurate fluxes and directionality for interplanetary spacecraft anywhere from .2 AU to 2 AU, and c) velocity distributions obtained from theory and validated against observation. Use of the model, which gives penetrating fluxes and average impact speeds on the surfaces of a cube-like structure are also described, along with its current limitations and plans for future improvements.

McNamara, H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM): A Meteoroid Model for the Inner Solar System

In an attempt to overcome some of the deficiencies of existing meteoroid models, NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program sponsored a three year research effort at the University of Western Ontario. The resulting understanding of the sporadic meteoroid environment - particularly the nature and distribution of the sporadic sources - were then incorporated into a new Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) by members of the Space Environments Team at NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center. This paper discusses some of the revolutionary aspects of MEM which include a) identification of the sporadic radiants with real sources of meteoroids, such as comets, b) a physics-based approach which yields accurate fluxes and directionality for interplanetary spacecraft anywhere from 0.2 astronomical units (AU) to 2 AU, and c) velocity distributions obtained from theory and validated against observation. Use of the model, which gives penetrating fluxes and average impact speeds on the surfaces of a cube-like structure, is also described along with its current limitations and plans for future improvements.

McNamara, Heather A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observations and the Flux of Kilogram-sized Meteoroids

Lunar impact monitoring provides useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the tens of grams to kilograms size range. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk, approximately 3.4x10(exp 6) sq km in our camera field-of-view, provides statistically significant counts of the meteoroids. Nearly 200 lunar impacts have been observed by our program in roughly 3.5 years. Photometric calibration of the flashes along with the luminous efficiency (determined using meteor showers1,2,3) and assumed velocities provide their sizes. The asymmetry in the flux on the evening and morning hemispheres of the Moon is compared with sporadic and shower sources to determine their most likely origin. The asymmetry between the two hemispheres seen in Figure 1 is due to the impact rate and not to observational bias. Comparison with other measurements of the large meteoroid fluxes is consistent with these measurements as shown in Figure 2. The flux of meteoroids in this size range has important implications for the near-Earth object population and for impact risk for lunar spacecraft

Suggs, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Possible Lack of Low-Mass Meteoroids in the Earth's Meteoroid Flux Due to Space Erosion?

The Earth's cumulative meteoroid flux, as found by Halliday et al. (1996), may have a shallower slope for meteoroid masses in the range 0.1-2.5 kg compared to those with masses greater than 2.5 kg when plotted on a log flux vs. log mass graph. This would indicate a lack of low-mass objects. While others such as Ceplecha (1992) find no shallow slope, there may be a reason for a lack of 0.1-2.5 kg meteoroids which supports Halliday et al.'s finding. Simple models show that a few centimeters of space erosion in stony meteoroids can reproduce the bend in Halliday et al.'s curve at approximately 2.5 kg and give the shallower slope.

Rubincam, David Parry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling the Meteoroid Environment Far from the Ecliptic Plane: Can a Tilted Plane of Symmetry Explain Seasonal Variations in the Meteoroid Environment?

NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) describes the meteoroid environment encountered by spacecraft in the inner solar system. MEM's algorithms take advantage of the fact that the vast majority of spacecraft remain close to the ecliptic plane in order to make several simplifying assumptions. However, this results in a model that cannot describe the environment for spacecraft such as Ulysses that travel far from the ecliptic, and limits the potential to validate the model using impact signatures from asteroids on inclined orbits. We are in the process of developing a new version of the code, numbered 3.1-alpha, that correctly computes the meteoroid flux and directionality far from the ecliptic. We present a new formulation of the spatial probability distribution function for fully precessed meteoroid models and compare our results with zodiacal light data.

Althea Moorhead↗
NASA NTRS1992

Deriving the velocity distribution of meteoroids from the measured meteoroid impact directionality on the various LDEF surfaces

Because of spacecraft orbital motion about the Earth, a much higher flux of meteoroids is expected to strike spacecraft surfaces that face in the direction of spacecraft motion (apex direction) than would strike apex facing or trailing edge surfaces. Impact velocities are also higher on apex facing surfaces compared to antapex facing surfaces which futher increases the apex/antapex ratio of spatial density of impact craters of a given size. Measurements of the areal densities of impact craters on the different LDEF surfaces should give important clues about the velocity distribution, and therefore the origins, of meteoroids. Preliminary results appear to support the meteoroid velocity distributions derived by Erickson and by Kessler, which would lead to a mean impact velocity on the LDEF spacecraft of about 19 km/s.

Zook, Herbert A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observations and the Flux of Kilogram-sized Meteoroids

Lunar impact monitoring provides useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the hundreds of grams to kilograms size range. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk, approximately 3.8 10(exp 6)sq km in our camera field-of-view, provides statistically significant counts of the meteoroids striking the lunar surface. Over 200 lunar impacts have been observed by our program in roughly 4 years. Photometric calibration of the flashes observed in the first 3 years along with the luminous efficiency determined using meteor showers and hypervelocity impact tests (Bellot Rubio et al. 2000; Ortiz et al. 2006; Moser et al. 2010; Swift et al. 2010) provide their impact kinetic energies. The asymmetry in the flux on the evening and morning hemispheres of the Moon is compared with sporadic and shower sources to determine their most likely origin. These measurements are consistent with other observations of large meteoroid fluxes.

Suggs, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Possible Lack of Low-Mass Meteoroids in the Earth's Meteoroid Flux Due to Space Erosion?

The Earth's cumulative meteoroid flux, when plotted on a log flux vs. log mass graph, has a shallower slope for meteoroid masses less than approximately 2.5 kg compared to those with masses greater than approximately 2.5 kg, indicating a lack of low-mass objects. The lack may be due to a few centimeters of space erosion in a single population, rather than being due to two different meteoroid populations as proposed by Halliday et al. (1996).

David Parry Rubincam↗
NASA NTRS2010

Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observations and the Flux of Kilogram-Sized Meteoroids

This slide presentation reviews NASA's program that observes and investigates the impact of meteoroids on the mooon. The meteor showers dominate the environment in the 100g to kilograms range. With a sufficient number of observed impacts the technique outlined can help determine the population index for some of the meteoroid showers.

Suggs, Rob↗
NASA NTRS1974

Interplanetary and near-Jupiter meteoroid environments - Preliminary results from the meteoroid detection experiment

Data on interplanetary and near-Jupiter micrometer-sized particle encounters from the meteoroid-detection experiment on Pioneer 10 indicate that Jupiter is much 'dustier' than interplanetary space. Whereas the near-earth particulate flux showed very little increase over the interplanetary flux, the near-Jupiter penetration flux was over two orders of magnitude higher than the interplanetary flux.

Kinard, W. H.↗