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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Process and control variables from the mercury loop at the SNS's mercury target

Set of process and control variables corresponding to the mercury process loop at the Spallation Neutron Source's (SNS) mercury target. The data corresponds to 36 measurement signals (pressure, temperature, flows, valve position, etc.) spanning from 2017/01/01 to 2023/12/31. Each signal is broken intro three-month intervals, resulting in a total of 28 files per signal during the aforementioned period of time.

mercury loop↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing biochars to stabilize mercury in contaminated floodplain sediment: Implications on mercury remediation

Major weather events contribute to the mobility and remobilization of legacy mercury (Hg) contamination and sequestration within sediments. Remediation using biochar as a soil amendment is a useful technique to immobilize and decrease Hg toxicity. This study explored whether biochar application is effective at stabilizing labile mercury (LaHg) from floodplain sediment. Controlled mesocosms simulating contamination events and flooding conditions were conducted. Floodplain sediment, which experiences annual periodic flooding, was collected. Sediment was spiked with inorganic Hg, applied with different types of biochar, and experienced simulated flooding events. Four types of biochar, pure rice husk (RH), pure peanut hull (PH), sulfur-modified rice husk (SMRH), and sulfur-modified peanut hull (SMPH), were applied at 10 and 40 g/kg rates (i.e., RH 10, RH 40; PH 10, PH 40, SMRH 10, SMRH 40, SMPH 10, SMPH 40). Total Hg, methylmercury, and LaHg concentrations were analyzed by coupling with redox potential measurements. Results indicate that SMRH 10, PH 10, PH 40, SMPH 10, and SMPH 40 successfully remediate Hg by stabilizing and reducing LaHg species from floodplain sediment. However, a high Hg methylation potential was observed with unsulfated and sulfated peanut hulls (PH 10, PH 40, SMPH 10, and SMPH 40), as they tend to create a reducing microenvironment that favors sulfate reduction reactions. Additionally, sulfur-modified biochar tends to promote Hg methylation potential at high application rates (i.e., 40 g/kg). We thus recommend using SMRH at a relatively low application rate (SMRH 10) for the remediation of Hg from floodplain sediment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uptake, Efflux, and Sequestration of Mercury in the Asian Clam, Corbicula fluminea , at Environmentally Relevant Concentrations, and the Implications for Mercury Remediation

(1) Mercury (Hg) is a persistent, ubiquitous contaminant that readily biomagnifies into higher trophic level species in aquatic environments across the globe. It is crucial to understand the movement of environmentally relevant concentrations of Hg in impacted freshwater streams to minimize risks to ecological and human health. (2) The bioconcentration kinetics of aqueous Hg exposure (20, 100, and 200 ng/L) in the invasive Asian Clam, Corbicula fluminea, were measured. A toxicokinetic model, the first parameterized for Hg accumulation in freshwater clams, was developed to estimate uptake and efflux parameters and compared to previous parameter values estimated for other mollusk species. (3) Results demonstrated that even at low Hg concentrations, Corbicula record signals of contamination through bioconcentration, and both direct measurement and toxicokinetic models demonstrate large Hg bioconcentration factors (as high as 1.34 × 10 5 mL/g dry tissue), similar to partitioning coefficients seen in engineered Hg sorbents. (4) Our study found that Corbicula accumulated Hg at aqueous concentrations relevant to impacted streams, but well below regulatory drinking water limits, demonstrating their utility as a sensitive sentinel species and potential bioremediator.

bioaccumulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report series: finding of effect and mitigation documentation for the mercury solar photovoltaic array and battery energy storage system, area 23, nevada national security site, nye county, nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) proposes to install solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation arrays and an associated battery energy storage system (BESS) for the town of Mercury at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (Figure 1). The purposes of the development of this facility are to support long-term efforts to modernize Mercury and to provide energy-resilient infrastructure and address climate adaptation needs. Because it is within the boundary of the Mercury Historic District (MHD), it is subject to the terms of the Programmatic Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada (hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA). An identification and evaluation report prepared for this undertaking determined that a contributing element to the MHD, the Mercury airstrip (26NY15777), is within the APE (Haynes 2024). The Mercury airstrip was developed following the closure of Camp Desert Rock in 1957 and used until late 1963 or 1964 when the Camp Desert Rock Airport was renovated, and the Mercury Bypass road constructed. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) as the MHD (SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for its importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992 (Reed 2019). Originally recorded in 2016, 26NY15777 was determined individually not eligible for listing in the NRHP because it lacked sufficient integrity to convey its significance (Palmer 2016). It was subsequently determined in 2018 to be a contributing element of the MHD in an architectural survey of the district (Palmer 2018) and identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element. However, as per Stipulation IV.B.2, because the airstrip had already been formally evaluated and determined not to be individually eligible for the NRHP in consultation with the SHPO, this categorization was an error. NNSA/NFO reported this to the SHPO in Haynes 2024 and the SHPO concurred on June 11, 2024 (Reed). Accordingly, the airstrip is a Category II Property for the purposes of complying with the Mercury PA. The Mercury airstrip is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mercury Testing with Sludge Batch 10 Tank 40 Simulant

Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) requested that researchers at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) perform testing designed to examine why the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is not collecting elemental mercury in the Mercury Water Wash Tank (MWWT). In order for DWPF to recover mercury, mercuric oxide must first be reduced to elemental mercury. The elemental mercury must then be steam stripped, condense, and coalesce in the Mercury Water Wash Tank (MWWT) during chemical processing in the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT). The efficiency of these steps was investigated in a series of laboratory scale SRAT experiments under the nitric-glycolic and nitric-formic flowsheets utilizing Momentive Y-17112 and Antifoam 747. Mercury speciation in the Slurry Mix Evaporator Condensate Tank (SMECT) and condensate streams was also examined. The key conclusions from these experiments are as follows: Mercury II Oxide may not be fully reduced to elemental mercury during acid addition at 93°C. Higher temperatures, i.e., boiling may be necessary to fully reduce Mercury II Oxide. The highest percent mercury recovery (71 %) in the MWWT was observed in the MS-NGA-17112 experiment (nitric-glycolic acid flowsheet with Momentive Y-17112), which is how DWPF is currently operating the SRAT.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Human perturbations to mercury in global rivers

Mercury compounds are potent neurotoxins that pose threats to human health, primarily through fish consumption. Rivers, critical for drinking water and food supply, have seen rapid increases in mercury concentrations and export to coastal margins since the Industrial Revolution (~1850). However, patterns of these changes remain understudied, limiting assessments of environmental policies. Here, we develop a global model to simulate preindustrial riverine total mercury and assess human perturbations by comparing it to present-day conditions. We find that global rivers transported ~390 megagrams annually of mercury to the oceans in the preindustrial era, with spatial variability. Human activities have elevated riverine mercury budgets by two to three times in the present day. Establishing a baseline riverine mercury level, our findings reveal rapid responses of riverine mercury to human perturbations and could be used to inform targets for global riverine mercury restoration. Total riverine mercury concentrations could also be used as indicators to comprehensively understand the effectiveness of mercury pollution governance.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mercury sequestration in alkaline salt low-level radioactive waste

Liquid low-level radioactive waste at the Savannah River Site contains several species of mercury, including inorganic, elemental and methylmercury. This waste is solidified and stabilized in a cementitious waste form referred to as saltstone. Soluble mercury is stabilized as β-cinnabar, HgS as the result of reaction between the mercury and sulfur present in blast furnace slag, one of the cementitious regents. In this investigation, Mersorb®, a commercial granular activated carbon impregnated with sulfur, was evaluated as a pretreatment to remove mercury from the solution prior to cementation. Mersorb® was found to remove more than 96 mass percent of the methylmercury in simulated tank waste solution when the mass ratio of Mersorb® to mercury was above 2.5. Slag sequestered relatively more inorganic mercury than organic mercury in simulated tank waste after 24 hours of contact. This is likely due to the mercury-carbon bond being more covalent than the mercury-oxygen bond and therefore more difficult to break and slower to form HgS.

Cementitious Material↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Controlling Variables for Mercury Vapors in Alpha-4 at Y-12: Two Year Data Collection Update

Multiple sensor packages were deployed at Alpha-4 by SRNL, in collaboration with United Cleanup Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR), to monitor mercury vapor concentrations and meteorological parameters. These sensors collected data, inside and outside of the legacy-use facility, for approximately two years. Though data gaps still exist, particularly in colder months, several controlling variables were identified that govern mercury vapor concentrations within Alpha-4. Temperature, barometric pressure gradients, humidity, and wind speed have been identified as controlling variables. A strong positive correlation was seen between mercury vapor concentrations and temperature which generally followed diurnal fluctuations. Temperatures below approximately 10 degrees Celsius did not show any spikes above the PEL, indicating more work can be performed at any time during the winter months – more data should be collected to confirm consistency in this finding. Additionally, spikes in mercury vapor concentrations above that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 100 µg/m 3 ) occurred primarily in late afternoon or evening/overnight hours (between 3 PM and 6 AM), which suggests D&D operations might be best scheduled during morning or daytime hours prior to the late afternoon. However, a limited number of spikes did occur outside of the identified window, although this may be attributed to disturbances in air flow and mercury vapor release from work activities performed inside of the Alpha-4 building. The analysis conducted allows for a strong predictive capability for estimating mercury vapor concentrations based upon accurate meteorological parameters. Still, additional data collection, particularly in the winter months, could help to strengthen the predictive power and validate the identified data trends. Further, increased temporal resolution could also help to better characterize the incipient stages of the increases and decreases in the mercury vapor concentration. Continued monitoring support by SRNL at Y-12 is underway at Alpha-4 to further close remaining data gaps and support deactivation and decommissioning work. Within a collaborative effort with UCOR, the SRNL team is collecting mercury vapor data to study the efficacy of a novel mercury suppressant, FerroBlack® which was recently deployed at Alpha-4. In addition, modifications to the current monitoring setup to increase measurement resolution is also being investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Food web dynamics drive variation in Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu mercury contamination in protected Southern Appalachian streams

Mercury is a global pollutant that threatens otherwise protected aquatic ecosystems. Mercury food web dynamics are not well understood in streams with no point sources of contamination but have the potential to concentrate this dangerous pollutant in upper trophic level consumers. A 2016 study revealed that mercury concentrations of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu varied between three streams in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), Tennessee, USA. We tested the hypothesis that food web interactions drive spatial variation in mercury concentrations of the apex predator of protected stream ecosystems. We measured carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios, and mercury concentrations of eight food web components of GSMNP streams including basal resources, intermediate consumers, and Smallmouth Bass, the apex predator. Mean THg concentrations of basal resources did not differ between streams, but the spatial pattern of concentrations of intermediate consumers mirrored Smallmouth Bass. Relationships between organismal contaminant concentrations and trophic level were positive in all three streams, indicating biomagnification is occurring in the protected streams of GSMNP. Furthermore, our findings indicate that mercury dynamics in intermediate trophic levels, rather than differences in basal resource concentrations, may drive differences in mercury contamination of apex predators of the protected stream ecosystems of GSMNP.

Bioaccumulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mobilization of mercury from contaminated creekbank soils

The industrial use of mercury (Hg) led to the contamination of numerous watersheds worldwide, including the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in Tennessee, USA. Mercury can accumulate in creek banks and floodplain soils and is mobilized into downstream environments due to erosion from precipitation and flooding. Here, this study aimed to evaluate the geochemical conditions contributing to the release of Hg from contaminated soils in this watershed. Bank soil samples from the EFPC watershed with total Hg concentrations ranging from 27.2 to 1,425 mg·kg −1 were used in a series of batch experiments with artificial creek water at a solid-to-solution ratio of 1:30 to assess Hg release. Additional experiments examined Hg release across different soil size fractions and solid-to-solution ratios, as well as the effect of dissolved organic matter and time on Hg mobilization. Mercury release ranged from 0.011 to 0.17% of the total soil Hg and is correlated with total Hg concentrations. Variations in release among size fractions suggested heterogeneous distribution of labile Hg species. Results indicated two distinct solubility regimes depending on solid-to-solution ratios. Dissolved organic matter enhanced Hg release, and time-dependent experiments showed that changes in mercury speciation could decrease dissolved Hg concentrations over time. Identifying conditions that promote Hg mobilization from contaminated soils improves our understanding of Hg fluxes into downstream environments. Key factors influencing mercury release include soil characteristics, water chemistry, and temporal changes in mercury speciation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A comprehensive framework to assess elemental mercury in the Department of Energy: A time series analysis

Objective: This study investigated whether seasonal categories affect airborne mercury concentrations in the U.S. Department of Energy operations. Methods: We conducted an initial assessment of the general variability of airborne elemental mercury time-weighted average (TWA) samples. Then, we performed a two-component time series analysis to determine whether long-term, cyclical temperature change patterns affect mercury concentrations. Results: Both ARIMA time series models demonstrated stationary, non-random means (χ² = 83.8, p < 0.001) and standard deviation (χ² = 55.8, p < 0.001) of mercury concentrations. Here, our results indicate that the seasonal factors did not influence mercury concentration. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that mercury concentrations primarily emanate from operational activities, work practices, and/or transient environmental conditions rather than seasonal fluctuations.

Cannady, Ryan T. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sorption kinetics and stability of conventional adsorbents for mercury remediation

In-situ remediation of mercury at numerous contaminated sites worldwide is a challenging and costly endeavor due to the persistency of this contaminant. In this study, we evaluated eight commercially available sorbent media ranging from carbon-, clays- and silica-based materials (PBC– Biochar, eSorb – Sorbster, nsPAC – Powdered Activated Carbon, fsPAC – Powdered Activated Carbon with Mackinawite, F300 – Filtrasorb 300, Si-SH – Silica Thiol, eBind – RemBind, Q-Clay – Organoclay PM-199), for their effectiveness in sorbing mercury (Hg 2+ ) and mercury complexed with dissolved organic matter (Hg-DOM). Under the chosen experimental conditions of this study, results showed that in the absence of DOM, the kinetic rates of Hg 2+ sorption onto the evaluated sorbents were in the order of 0.31 min-1 (Si-SH) to 2.98 min -1 (nsPAC), whereas in the presence of DOM, the rates varied from 0.16 min-1 (F300) to 0.95 min -1 (nsPAC). The measured sorption capacity for Hg 2+ in the absence of DOM varied from 3.02 mg/g (Q-Clay) to 35.15 mg/g (Si-SH), whereas in the presence of DOM, calculated partition coefficient (KD) ranged from 69.7 mL/g (Q-Clay) to 41,510 mL/g (Si-SH). Furthermore, kinetic data suggest liquid film diffusion was the rate-limiting steps governing mercury sorption onto the studied media. Overall, the obtained study parameters (kinetics/isotherm) are particularly important in informing robust engineering designs for deployment of the vast majority of evaluated sorbents. Thus, sorbent-based strategies offer viable solutions for cost-effective cleanup of mercury at industrially contaminated sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of carbon foam-based sorbents for the abatement of gaseous mercury and iodine

The U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is in the process of commissioning the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant to process a portion of the 54 million gallons of radioactive and chemical waste from cold war weapon production. Technologies for the capture of volatile species of concern are still being assessed, and new methods and materials are developed as operational and flowsheet mission risks are identified. One such area still being assessed is the abatement efficacy of the Carbon Adsorber units to retain gaseous mercury and 129 I released during processing. It is challenging to predict the mercury chemistry due to the variability of the feed, and different methods/materials are required for the capture of gaseous Hg 0 and Hg II compounds. In this study, the feasibility of using developmental carbon foam (CF) sorbents for the capture of iodine and mercury was assessed using static and dynamic flow testing and compared against a commercially available sorbent, BATII-37. Both CF and CF functionalized with bismuth particles (CF-Bi) chemisorbed iodine, and CF-Bi had similar mercury capture performance to BATII-37 in dynamic flow tests. While species loading concentrations were measurable, limitations in achieving a mass balance prevented a full evaluation of capture efficacy. Nonetheless, the results serve as an important first step in demonstrating the potential for simultaneous iodine and mercury capture.

Hanford site↗
DOE OSTI2024

Literature Review Investigating Adsorbents for Mercury Removal from Salt Batch Feed Material

The Savannah River Site (SRS) Liquid Waste System (LWS) contains mercury that originated from decades of canyon processing where it was used as a catalyst for dissolving aluminum cladding of reactor fuel. Since the start of radioactive operations, the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) has experienced processing difficulties due to the presence of mercury-laden solids. In response to these challenges, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has been requested by Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC)/Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) personnel to perform a literature review to assess the feasibility of chemical strikes to salt waste-containing tanks at the SRS as an option to reduce mercury introduction into SWPF. The literature review should evaluate known technologies and chemistries for decreasing mercury concentration and the anticipated efficacy of each technology on various mercury species known to exist in SRS waste.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Interplanetary Magnetic Field Conditions at Mercury's Orbit From MESSENGER Magnetosheath Observations Using a Feedforward Neural Network

Abstract Mercury's small magnetosphere is embedded in the dynamic and intense solar wind environment characteristic of the inner heliosphere. Both the magnitude and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly influence the solar wind‐magnetospheric interaction at Mercury, driving phenomena such as magnetic reconnection. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft provided in‐situ magnetic field measurements of the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the magnetosphere along each orbit. However, it is a challenge to directly assess the IMF's impact on Mercury's plasma environment due to the temporal separation between observations within the solar wind and the magnetosphere, especially in the absence of an upstream monitor. Here, we present a feedforward neural network (FNN) trained on a subset of magnetosheath observations to estimate the strength and orientation of the IMF upstream of the bow shock. Utilizing magnetosheath magnetic field, cylindrical spatial coordinates, and heliocentric distance measurements, the FNN predicts upstream IMF conditions with an score of 0.70 and mean averaged error of 5.3 nT, thereby greatly decreasing the temporal separation between IMF estimates and magnetospheric measurements throughout the MESSENGER mission. This approach yields IMF estimates for all magnetosheath data measured by MESSENGER, providing a useful tool for future investigations of the IMF impact on Mercury's magnetosphere. This method will be integrable with the dual‐spacecraft BepiColombo magnetosheath measurements, providing useful estimates of upstream IMF conditions particularly during the extended periods in which neither spacecraft sample the solar wind. Our results demonstrate the utility of machine learning techniques on advancing space science research.

Bowers, Charles F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Horizontal gene transfer of the Mer operon is associated with large effects on the transcriptome and increased tolerance to mercury in nitrogen-fixing bacteria

Abstract Background Mercury (Hg) is highly toxic and has the potential to cause severe health problems for humans and foraging animals when transported into edible plant parts. Soil rhizobia that form symbiosis with legumes may possess mechanisms to prevent heavy metal translocation from roots to shoots in plants by exporting metals from nodules or compartmentalizing metal ions inside nodules. Horizontal gene transfer has potential to confer immediate de novo adaptations to stress. We used comparative genomics of high quality de novo assemblies to identify structural differences in the genomes of nitrogen-fixing rhizobia that were isolated from a mercury (Hg) mine site that show high variation in their tolerance to Hg. Results Our analyses identified multiple structurally conserved merA homologs in the genomes of Sinorhizobium medicae and Rhizobium leguminosarum but only the strains that possessed a Mer operon exhibited 10-fold increased tolerance to Hg. RNAseq analysis revealed nearly all genes in the Mer operon were significantly up-regulated in response to Hg stress in free-living conditions and in nodules. In both free-living and nodule environments, we found the Hg-tolerant strains with a Mer operon exhibited the fewest number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the genome, indicating a rapid and efficient detoxification of Hg from the cells that reduced general stress responses to the Hg-treatment. Expression changes in S. medicae while in bacteroids showed that both rhizobia strain and host-plant tolerance affected the number of DEGs. Aside from Mer operon genes, nif genes which are involved in nitrogenase activity in S. medicae showed significant up-regulation in the most Hg-tolerant strain while inside the most Hg-accumulating host-plant. Transfer of a plasmid containing the Mer operon from the most tolerant strain to low-tolerant strains resulted in an immediate increase in Hg tolerance, indicating that the Mer operon is able to confer hyper tolerance to Hg. Conclusions Mer operons have not been previously reported in nitrogen-fixing rhizobia. This study demonstrates a pivotal role of the Mer operon in effective mercury detoxification and hypertolerance in nitrogen-fixing rhizobia. This finding has major implications not only for soil bioremediation, but also host plants growing in mercury contaminated soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mercury Detection Utilizing an Aquatic Animal as a Remote-Sensing Platform

Mercury species in open water, especially the accumulated methylmercury ion, pose a threat to fish and environment. Therefore, it is important to develop a small sensor package that can be integrated into a biotelemetry sensor carried by an aquatic animal, enhancing the ability to detect mercury contamination in large water areas. A quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) sensor using metal-organic framework (MOF) as sensing material was developed to detect mercury and methylmercury ions in real time based on acoustic wave perturbation. Thiol groups were introduced into the MOF UiO-66 through the organic linker to prepare the UiO-66-SH which was confirmed by infrared spectroscopy results. Batch adsorption experiments were conducted for the Hg 2+ , CH 3 Hg + , and Ca 2+ ions adsorption in the UiO-66-SH. The adsorption capacities of the mercury ions were more than an order of magnitude higher than those of the competing Ca 2+ ions at the same concentration. The frequency changes of the QCM sensor with the UiO-66-SH sensing film were an order of magnitude higher than those of the controlled baseline QCM sensor without a sensing film. Additionally, the frequency change can be tailored by adjusting the thickness of the MOF film and the adsorption properties of the sensing material. The sensor frequency change correlates well with ion adsorption capacities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mercury’s Chaotic Secular Evolution as a Subdiffusive Process

Abstract Mercury’s orbit can destabilize, generally resulting in a collision with either Venus or the Sun. Chaotic evolution can causeg 1 to decrease to the approximately constant value ofg 5 and create a resonance. Previous work has approximated the variation ing 1 as stochastic diffusion, which leads to a phenomological model that can reproduce the Mercury instability statistics of secular andN-body models on timescales longer than 10 Gyr. Here we show that the diffusive model significantly underpredicts the Mercury instability probability on timescales less than 5 Gyr, the remaining lifespan of the solar system. This is becauseg 1 exhibits larger variations on short timescales than the diffusive model would suggest. To better model the variations on short timescales, we build a new subdiffusive phenomological model forg 1 . Subdiffusion is similar to diffusion but exhibits larger displacements on short timescales and smaller displacements on long timescales. We choose model parameters based on the behavior of theg 1 trajectories in theN-body simulations, leading to a tuned model that can reproduce Mercury instability statistics from 1–40 Gyr. This work motivates fundamental questions in solar system dynamics: why does subdiffusion better approximate the variation ing 1 than standard diffusion? Why is there an upper bound ong 1 , but not a lower bound that would prevent it from reachingg 5 ?

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗