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Results for “Memoryless process”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

The Nature of Grand Minima and Maxima from Fully Nonlinear Flux Transport Dynamos

We aim to investigate the nature and occurrence characteristics of grand solar minimum and maximum periods, which are observed in the solar proxy records such as {sup 10}Be and {sup 14}C, using a fully nonlinear Babcock–Leighton type flux transport dynamo including momentum and entropy equations. The differential rotation and meridional circulation are generated from the effect of turbulent Reynolds stress and are subjected to back-reaction from the magnetic field. To generate grand minimum- and maximum-like periods in our simulations, we used random fluctuations in the angular momentum transport process, namely the Λ-mechanism, and in the Babcock–Leighton mechanism. To characterize the nature and occurrences of the identified grand minima and maxima in our simulations, we used the waiting time distribution analyses, which reflect whether the underlying distribution arises from a random or a memory-bearing process. The results show that, in the majority of the cases, the distributions of grand minima and maxima reveal that the nature of these events originates from memoryless processes. We also found that in our simulations the meridional circulation speed tends to be smaller during grand maximum, while it is faster during grand minimum periods. The radial differential rotation tends to be larger during grand maxima, while it is smaller during grand minima. The latitudinal differential rotation, on the other hand, is found to be larger during grand minima.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Communication: Memory effects and active Brownian diffusion

A self-propelled artificial microswimmer is often modeled as a ballistic Brownian particle moving with constant speed aligned along one of its axis, but changing direction due to random collisions with the environment. Similarly to thermal noise, its angular randomization is described as a memoryless stochastic process. Here, we speculate that finite-time correlations in the orientational dynamics can affect the swimmer’s diffusivity. To this purpose, we propose and solve two alternative models. In the first one, we simply assume that the environmental fluctuations governing the swimmer’s propulsion are exponentially correlated in time, whereas in the second one, we account for possible damped fluctuations of the propulsion velocity around the swimmer’s axis. The corresponding swimmer’s diffusion constants are predicted to get, respectively, enhanced or suppressed upon increasing the model memory time. Possible consequences of this effect on the interpretation of the experimental data are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling memoryless degradation under variable stress

Accelerated degradation tests can be used as the basis for predicting the performance or state of health of products and materials at use conditions over time. Measurements acquired at accelerated levels of stress are used to develop models that relate to the degradation of one or more performance measures. Frequently, products/materials of interest are subjected to variable stress levels during their lifetimes. However, testing is usually performed only at a few fixed stress levels. In such cases, cumulative degradation models are developed and assessed by using data acquired under those fixed stress conditions. The degradation rate at any stress condition within the range of the model can be estimated by the derivative of the cumulative model at that stress condition. It follows that, to predict cumulative degradation over variable use conditions, one might integrate the fluctuating degradation rate over time. Existing approaches for doing this consider degradation rates that depend only on the current stress level. Here, we propose to allow the degradation rate to also depend on the current state of health as indicated by the associated performance measure(s). The resulting modeling approach is capable of portraying a broader range of degradation behavior than existing approaches. The assertion of memoryless degradation by using this or any other approach should be assessed experimentally with data acquired under variable stress in order to increase confidence that the integrated rate model is accurate. In this article, we demonstrate the additional capability of the proposed approach by developing empirical memoryless rate-based degradation models to predict resistance increase and capacity decrease in lithium-ion cells that are being evaluated for use in electric vehicles. Here, we then assess the plausibility of these models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Radiation Transport in Random Media With Large Fluctuations

Strongly heterogeneous media arise in several applications that include radiation shields, nuclear fuel, BWR moderators, clouds, planetary and stellar atmospheres, turbulent gases and plasmas. Neutral and charged particle transport computations in such media have relied heavily on formulating transport equations with spatially random coefficients (physical data) and developing solution methods to deal with the additional stochastic dimensions. Attempts at developing approximate closures that yield only low order statistical information (e.g., mean and variance of the flux) have proved to be highly restrictive under real physics conditions or rely on techniques that require fluctuation amplitudes to be small for robustness. Recently, stochastic spectral methods such as polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation have been developed for aleatoric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, and successfully applied in radiation transport work. Advances in UQ techniques have tended to focus on efficiently handling large numbers of uncertain variables but the rigorous stochastic basis of the approach also promotes its use in situations where stochasticity is due to spatial heterogeneity and the associated uncertainty is large. Here we apply these techniques to radiation transport in media with spatially randomly varying cross sections without restriction on fluctuation amplitudes. Specifically, we represent the cross sections as a lognormal spatial random process with specified mean, variance and covariance function and use a Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition to generate cross section realizations that are strictly positive. Woodcock Monte Carlo (WMC) is then used to simulate transport using random sampling of cross sections and deterministic sampling based on a stochastic collocation technique. Numerical results for the mean and variance in the scalar flux and leakage currents are obtained for weak and strong random variations. We focus in this work on demonstrating the approach and defer application to specific problems to a future investigation. We have demonstrated that a combination of stochastic spectral representation and Woodcock Monte Carlo simulation allows efficient computation of radiation transport in strongly random media. The use of a lognormal distribution to represent the fluctuations in medium properties facilitates enforcement of strict positivity of cross section realizations, a condition that has challenged standard approaches that assume Gaussian fluctuations. The fact that the lognormal random process is a memoryless nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian process further enables efficient and accurate reconstruction of the random cross section realizations using a Karhunen-Loeve representation of the cross section. Finally, the robustness of this model enables fluctuations of arbitrarily large amplitude to be studied, using both random sampling Monte Carlo and more efficient stochastic collocation techniques. The present work is being extended to allow reconstruction of probability density functions of output variables using polynomial chaos representation, and to accommodate general cross section covariance functions. Also, techniques are being explored to more judiciously select ceiling cross sections to enhance the efficiency of Woodcock Monte Carlo for transport in random media. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Counting generations in birth and death processes with competing Erlang and exponential waiting times

Lymphocyte populations, stimulated in vitro or in vivo, grow as cells divide. Stochastic models are appropriate because some cells undergo multiple rounds of division, some die, and others of the same type in the same conditions do not divide at all. If individual cells behave independently, then each cell can be imagined as sampling from a probability density of times to division and death. The exponential density is the most mathematically and computationally convenient choice. It has the advantage of satisfying the memoryless property, consistent with a Markov process, but it overestimates the probability of short division times. With the aim of preserving the advantages of a Markovian framework while improving the representation of experimentally-observed division times, we consider a multi-stage model of cellular division and death. We use Erlang-distributed (or, more generally, phase-type distributed) times to division, and exponentially distributed times to death. We classify cells into generations, using the rule that the daughters of cells in generation n are in generation n + 1. In some circumstances, our representation is equivalent to established models of lymphocyte dynamics. We find the growth rate of the cell population by calculating the proportions of cells by stage and generation. The exponent describing the late-time cell population growth, and the criterion for extinction of the population, differs from what would be expected if N steps with rate λ were equivalent to a single step of rate λ/N. We link with a published experimental dataset, where cell counts were reported after T cells were transferred to lymphopenic mice, using Approximate Bayesian Computation. In the comparison, the death rate is assumed to be proportional to the generation and the Erlang time to division for generation 0 is allowed to differ from that of subsequent generations. The multi-stage representation is preferred to a simple exponential in posterior distributions, and the mean time to first division is estimated to be longer than the mean time to subsequent divisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Disease Propagation and Control Strategies Using Memoryless State Transitions

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is an infectious disease affecting goats and sheep. PPR has a mortality rate of 80% and a morbidity rate of 100% in naïve herds. This disease is currently of concern to Afghani goat and sheep herders as conditions in Afghanistan are conducive to the disease becoming an epidemic. PPR is similar to Rinderpest, but is not as well studied. There is a lack of empirical data on how the disease spreads or effective large-scale mitigation strategies. We developed a herd-level, event-driven model of PPR, using memoryless state transitions, to study how the virus propagates through a herd, and to identify effective control strategies for disparate herd configurations and environments. This model allows us to perform Sensitivity Analyses (SA) on environmental and disease parameters for which we do not have empirical data and to simulate the effectiveness of various control strategies. We find that reducing the amount of time from the identification of PPR in a herd to the vaccination of the herd will radically reduce the number of deaths that result from PPR. The goal of this model is to give policy makers a tool to develop effective containment strategies for managing outbreaks of PPR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Memoryless self-reinforcing directionality in endosomal active transport within living cells

In contrast to Brownian transport, the active motility of microbes, cells, animals and even humans often follows another random process known as truncated Levy walk 1,2 . These stochastic motions are characterized by clustered small steps and intermittent longer jumps that often extend towards the size of the entire system. As there are repeated suggestions, although disagreement, that Levy walks have functional advantages over Brownian motion in random searching and transport kinetics 3-8 , their intentional engineering into active materials could be useful. Here, we show experimentally in the classic active matter system of intracellular trafficking 9-15 that Brownian-like steps self-organize into truncated Levy walks through an apparent time-independent positive feedback such that directional persistence increases with the distance traveled persistently. A molecular model that allows the maximum output of the active propelling forces to fluctuate slowly fits the experiments quantitatively. Furthermore, our findings offer design principles for programming efficient transport in active materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Markov properties of the magnetic field in the quiet solar photosphere

The observed magnetic field on the solar surface is characterized by a very complex spatial and temporal behavior. Although feature-tracking algorithms have allowed us to deepen our understanding of this behavior, subjectivity plays an important role in the identification and tracking of such features. In this paper, we study the temporal stochasticity of the magnetic field on the solar surface without relying on either the concept of magnetic feature or on the subjective assumptions about their identification and interaction. The analysis is applied to observations of the magnetic field of the quiet solar photosphere carried out with the Imaging Magnetograph eXperiment (IMaX) instrument on board the stratospheric balloon, Sunrise. We show that the joint probability distribution functions of the longitudinal (B{sub ∥}) and transverse (B{sub ⊥}) components of the magnetic field, as well as of the magnetic pressure (B{sup 2}=B{sub ⊥}{sup 2}+B{sub ∥}{sup 2}), verify the necessary and sufficient condition for the Markov chains. Therefore, we establish that the magnetic field as seen by IMaX with a resolution of 0.″15–0.″18 and 33 s cadence, which can be considered as a memoryless temporal fluctuating quantity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗