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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Refined Method to Translate Solar Data Quality Assessment Flags to Estimated Measurement Uncertainty

Integrating solar resource uncertainties due to radiometer measurement performance and operational data quality assessment can provide improved estimates of economic bankability, system design performance, and compliance of solar energy conversion systems. Estimating radiometer measurement uncertainty is an established procedure consistent with recognized best practices and international guidelines. SERI QC is a robust solar data quality assessment software tool that has been in continuous use for more than three decades. This report, the fourth of six for the Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration Project, presents a refined algorithm description for software to translate solar resource data quality assessment results into estimated uncertainty values in a Solar Resource Operational Uncertainty Integrator (SROUI) application. This algorithm requires three-component solar irradiance measurements - global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, and diffuse horizontal irradiance - collected at 1- to 60-minute intervals, as described in the previous deliverables. The development of this report as Deliverable 6.4 was an iterative process that included reviews and feedback from the project team on initial drafts designed to refine how the new software could best support determining solar resource data uncertainty. The results of this effort will contribute to the final software system development by National Renewable Energy Laboratory staff.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties

The covariance committee of CSEWG (Cross Section Evaluation Working Group) established templates of expected measurement uncertainties for neutron-induced total, (n,γ), neutron-induced charged-particle, and (n,xn) reaction cross sections as well as prompt fission neutron spectra, average prompt and total fission neutron multiplicities, and fission yields. Templates provide a list of what uncertainty sources are expected for each measurement type and observable, and suggest typical ranges of these uncertainties and correlations based on a survey of experimental data, associated literature, and feedback from experimenters. Information needed to faithfully include the experimental data in the nuclear-data evaluation process is also provided. These templates could assist (a) experimenters and EXFOR compilers in delivering more complete uncertainties and measurement information relevant for evaluations of new experimental data, and (b) evaluators in achieving a more comprehensive uncertainty quantification for evaluation purposes. This effort might ultimately lead to more realistic evaluated covariances for nuclear-data applications. In this topical issue, we cover the templates coming out of this CSEWG effort–typically, one observable per paper. This paper here prefaces this topical issue by introducing the concept and mathematical framework of templates, discussing potential use cases, and giving an example of how they can be applied (estimating missing experimental uncertainties of 235 U(n,f) average prompt fission neutron multiplicities), and their impact on nuclear-data evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Total Measurement Uncertainty in Neutron Coincidence Multiplicity Analysis

Neutron multiplicity counting is the most commonly used nondestructive assay technique for determining the plutonium mass within containers of scrap PuO 2 or mixed oxide (MOX). In multiplicity analysis, the 240 Pu eff mass, leakage multiplication, and alpha ratio (the ratio of [α, n]-to-spontaneous fission neutron production) are the three primary unknown sample properties. They must be determined simultaneously. To solve for these three unknowns in a multiplicity assay, three measured values are needed: the singles, doubles, and triples neutron count rates. While the analysis is limited to solving for three unknowns, there are many additional factors that impact the observed count rates and contribute to the measurement uncertainty. In this study we investigate the various uncertainty contributors for the multiplicity analysis through a combination of traditional uncertainty propagation techniques supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to address the dependences not explicitly expressed by the point source model. Uncertainties arising from counting statistics, calibration parameters, calibration method, nuclear data, and various material characteristics (isotopic abundances, chemical form, density, and impurities) are considered. A Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) estimate is then developed from these uncertainty contributors. This study is confined to multiplicity analysis of items commonly encountered in international safeguards applications. That is, the study focused on Pu oxides and MOX materials for the masses ranging up to 4000 grams total Pu. Multiplicity measurements were simulated using MCNP V6 based on the Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC), Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (ENMC), Pyrochemical Multiplicity Counter, and Large Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (LEMC) for this study; however, this report focuses on the parameterization of the uncertainties for the PSMC. The performance differences between the PSMC and the other multiplicity counting systems are relatively small, primarily manifesting in the impact on measurement precision so that the evaluation developed for the PSMC can be applied to the other multiplicity counting systems. Finally an analysis tool, the Multiplicity TMU Estimator, was developed from this study to serve as an aid for evaluation of the total measurement uncertainty of multiplicity assay results obtained from the commonly used INCC acquisition and analysis software.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dealing with Measurement Uncertainties as Nuisance Parameters in Bayesian Model Calibration

In the presence of model discrepancy, the calibration of physics-based models for physical parameter inference is a challenging problem. Lack of identifiability between calibration parameters and model discrepancy requires additional identifiability constraints to be placed on the model discrepancy to obtain unique physical parameter estimates. If these assumptions are violated, the inference for the calibration parameters can be systematically biased. In many applications, such as in dynamic material property experiments, many of the calibration inputs refer to measurement uncertainties. Here, we develop a metric for identifying overfitting of these measurement uncertainties, propose a prior capable of reducing this overfitting, and show how this leads to a diagnostic tool for validation of physical parameter inference. The approach is demonstrated for a benchmark example and applied for a material property application to perform inference on the equation of state parameters of tantalum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation and Suitability of Using SERI QC Software for Estimating Measurement Uncertainty

SERI QC is a robust solar data quality assessment software tool that has been in continuous use for more than three decades. This report (the first of six in the Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration project) reviews and evaluates the software to determine its suitability for determining the estimated expanded measurement uncertainty of solar measurement data by including operational factors. Using redundancy incorporated in three-component (global, direct, diffuse) solar measurements, SERI QC can quantify the standard uncertainty estimates for estimating uncertainty. With minor modifications, SERI QC will provide an operational uncertainty to be used in conjunction with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory method for instrument uncertainty to provide an integrated estimate of solar measurement data sets. These modifications will capitalize on SERI QC's evaluation of data quality, including data input validation and a variety of built-in solar routines, and will further develop the utility of the software.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental uncertainty quantification using templates of expected measurement uncertainties for fast neutron-induced total, capture, and scattering cross sections

Careful experimental uncertainty quantification (UQ) is key for developing trustworthy evaluated nuclear data. Templates to account for missing or under-reported experimental uncertainties were recently developed by the covariance committee of Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). In this work, we illustrate the practical application and limitations of these templates for selected neutron-induced reactions, including (n, tot), (n, γ), and (n, xn) in the fast energy range, to illustrate their use in data analyses for nuclear data evaluations. We show that while the templates provide consistent framework, proper implementation still requires detailed knowledge of experimental conditions and careful treatment of nonlinear effects in cross section derivation. Case studies highlight how template-assisted UQ improves consistency with previous evaluations such as ENDF/B and reveals open challenges in propagating uncertainties across different energy regimes. The main contribution of this paper is to connect formal template recommendations with their use in practical evaluation workflows, clarifying both their benefits and current limitations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-of-a-kind Experiments

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experimental measurement multiple times and calculate the measured value with experimental uncertainty by following well developed statistical procedures. For various reasons – cost, technical difficulty, international treaties, ethics of dealing with human or animal subjects, ecology - many important experiments and observations can not be repeated. Astronomy, earthquakes, hurricanes produce data from one-of-a-kind events. When information is not available in any other way, it should not be dismissed as qualitative, anecdotal evidence only. Analyzed in a mathematically rigorous way, it produces quantitative experimental data. Analysis of data from one-of-a-kind event differs from analysis of repeated experiments’ data. For repeated experiments, the experimental error includes a range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by detectors. They are independent. Repetitions of any experiment, as similar as achievable, always have built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. Measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement system only. Digital measurements have very small uncertainty, frequently smaller than the range of true experimental values resulting from built-in differences in the experiment repetitions. When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty can be reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for average prompt and total fission neutron multiplicities

In this paper, we provide templates of measurement uncertainty sources expected to appear for average prompt- and total-fission neutron multiplicities, $ \overline\nu_p $ and $ \overline\nu_t $, for the following measurement types: absolute manganese-bath experiments for $ \overline\nu_t $, absolute and ratio liquid-scintillator measurements for $ \overline\nu_p $. These templates also suggest a typical range of these uncertainties and their correlations based on a survey of available experimental data, associated literature, and feedback from experimentalists. In addition, the information needed to faithfully include the associated experimental data into the nuclear-data evaluation process is provided.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement Uncertainty of Highly Asymmetrically Curved Elliptical Mirrors Using Multi-Pitch Slope Stitching Technique

Soft X-ray off-axis elliptical mirrors bring new challenges for X-ray mirror metrology. These highly asymmetrically curved elliptical cylindrical mirrors with a total slope range >10 mrad are extremely challenging to measure. Their total slope range exceeds the measuring range of most angular sensors used for X-ray mirror inspection. To overcome this problem, it is possible to stitch partial slope data by measuring the mirror at different pitch angles (multi-pitch angles). By revisiting the theory of the multi-pitch Nano-accuracy Surface Profiler (NSP), we derive the sampling position error on the mirror surface as a function of the mirror height profile and the measurement error of the pitch rotation center. When measuring “extreme”, highly asymmetrically curved, elliptical mirrors, the calculation of the mirror height profile with iterative reconstruction outperforms the classical “flat assumption” (i.e., assuming that the mirror sag is negligible). As demonstrated by our simulations, a proper tolerance evaluation on the measurement of pitch rotation center is needed to assess the measurement accuracy (systematic error) for these strongly aspherical mirrors using the multi-pitch NSP technique. Taking a real design of an “extreme” elliptical mirror as a case study, we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to mimic the measurement and characterization process to analyze the impact of several error sources. With the measurement uncertainty of the pitch rotation center, the multi-pitch NSP measurement can estimate the grazing angle θ and the chief ray location x o with their uncertainties, as well as the slope residuals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of delta ray electrons on measurement uncertainties of harp system

A harp system, which is a multi-wire beam profile monitoring (MWPM) system, is planned upstream of the spallation target to make in situ calibration of beam current density configuration on the target along with beam imaging from luminescent coating on the beam entrance window at the Second Target Station (STS) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This beam interception-based beam diagnostics system on the target will be used to ensure that the maximum beam loads on the target are within the design range during neutron production. Current design of the harp consists of three layers of measurement wires each of which is sandwiched between voltage biasing wire planes. The signal obtained from each measurement wire layer is disturbed by secondary electrons (SE) and delta rays produced by beam-matter interactions in neighboring wires and ionization of residual gases in accelerator vacuum. While the backgrounds from SE can be suppressed by voltage biasing, the delta-ray electrons with kinetic energies above keV ranges overcome the electric potential bias. In this paper, we study the effects of delta-rays on the measurement uncertainties of MWPM using the particle transport simulation code FLUKA. Furthermore, the cases where the harp system is installed in the proximity of a large delta ray sources such as proton beam window or in the core vessel filled with sub-atmospheric gas have been studied.

Lee, Yong Joong↗
DOE OSTI2023

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for neutron-induced capture and charged-particle production cross section observables

This paper provides a template of expected uncertainties and correlations for measurements of neutron-induced capture and charged-particle production cross sections. Measurements performed in-beam include total absorption spectroscopy, total energy detection, γ -ray spectroscopy, and direct charged-particle detection. Offline measurements include activation analysis and accelerator mass spectrometry. The information needed for proper use of the datasets in resonance region and high energy region evaluations is described, and recommended uncertainties are provided when specific values are not available for a dataset.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for total neutron cross-section observables

This paper provides a template of expected uncertainties and correlations for measurements of total neutron cross-section observables by transmission. Measurements with time-of-flight and mono-energetic neutron sources are covered. The information required for evaluations in the resonance region and high energy region is detailed, along with the template of uncertainties and correlations that can be used in the absence of other information.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Minimization of Measurement Uncertainty in Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry

Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is a technique for interrogating optical fiber sensors to generate relative, quasi-distributed measurements. Although Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is increasingly being adopted for aerospace, energy production, and structural monitoring applications, the quantification of uncertainty for OFDR measurements has not been developed beyond sparse empirical relationships. To address this knowledge gap, an uncertainty metric for OFDR measurements was developed. This uncertainty metric was applied to weight the edges between OFDR measurements on directed correlation graphs and analyzed to minimize the cumulative uncertainty. In conclusion, this work is the first to propose an uncertainty metric for OFDR and provides a generalized mathematical framework for optimizing OFDR hardware selection, optical fiber sensor selection, and postprocessing strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for prompt fission neutron spectra

In this paper, we provide templates of uncertainty sources expected to appear for three measurement types of prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS): (1) shape measurements, (2) clean-ratio shape, that is the monitor PFNS are measured in nearly exactly the same surrounding as the PFNS of interest, and (3) indirect ratios, where the detector efficiency is backed out from PFNS monitor measurements. Information is also listed that is needed to faithfully include PFNS in nuclear data evaluations to guide experimenters on how to best report data and metadata for their measurements. These templates also suggest a typical range of pertinent uncertainty values and their correlations in case realistic uncertainties cannot be estimated from information on the measurement itself. The templates were based on a literature review, information found in EXFOR for 252 Cf, 235, 238 U, and 239 Pu PFNS, and enhanced by expertise from experimenters contributing to these PFNS templates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for (n, xn) cross sections

A template is provided for evaluating experimental uncertainties for neutron elastic and inelastic scattering cross sections and γ -ray production cross sections from (n, xn) measurements at laboratories with monoenergetic or white neutron sources. A typical range of uncertainties is presented for experiments detecting the scattered neutrons or the resulting de-excitation γ rays based on a survey of available data and input from many experimentalists and theorists with extensive knowledge in the field. Models commonly used to evaluate the resulting cross-sections are also discussed. Suggestions are made regarding what experimental and uncertainty information is needed for data evaluations and should be included when reporting experimental (n, xn) cross sections. Uncertainty values and correlations are recommended if these values cannot be estimated for past data from the literature.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Measurement Uncertainties in the Jupiter High-240 Experiment

The Jupiter High-240 experiment performed in May of 2019 was previously discussed as a variant of the original Jupiter experiment incorporating plutonium metal alloy fuel plates with higher 240Pu content and lead plates, using both a reference configuration and a second configuration where eight lead plates were replaced with aluminum to simulate voiding. Measurements were recorded for experiment period, the “pressure” of the Comet ram upon closure for each near-critical measurement, and temperature. The experiment reactor period is the time it would take to increase the neutron population by a factor of e. For this experiment, the copper reflectors and upper third of the fuel sits upon a support structure with the lower fuel arrays raised up into the center of the reflectors using a ram (see Fig. 1). The recorded logbook temperature for each measurement corresponds to a resistance temperature detector (RTD) located at the top center of the upper fuel array. This paper summarizes the evaluated uncertainties for the Jupiter High 240 experiment as contributed via the recorded measurements and nuclear data and their assessed impact upon the computation of system reactivity and eigenvalue.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗