Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Maximum Mean Discrepancy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistically Consistent Dispersions of Line Loads to Uncertain Integrated Forces and Moments

This work presents a method to generate line loads that are consistent with integrated force and moment constraints, while also following the statistical distribution underlying known line load data. The motivation for this method is to address a particular problem that can arise during the pre-flight analysis of an ascent vehicle. That problem is constructing separate databases, for line loads and integrated aerodynamic coefficients, that contain different data and thus different amounts of quantified uncertainty. A dispersed line load method is described and applied to a data set generated by 29 computational fluid dynamics simulations at various angles of attack and sideslip. The statistical similarity of the generated line loads to the known data is confirmed by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy 2-sample test. The promising results from this novel method are compared against results from applying an existing line load adjustment procedure to the same data set. Finally, potential future avenues of research are briefly discussed.

Aaron C. Burkhead↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Copula-based Method to Generate Consistent Surface Pressures Under Uncertainty

This paper establishes a method to create surface pressure databases that allow for uncertainty quantification. Aerodynamic databases are critical products for launch vehicles and other aeronautical systems, and surface pressure databases are one such database that constains large quantities of data. The focus of this work is the relationship between the integrated force and moment data base and the surface pressure database. In particular, the work attempts to provide a method that maintains consistency between these two databases when accounting for uncertainty. The integrated force and moment database and surface pressure databases are constructed from CFD data which is high-density but low-trust. However, the force and moment database will often also include data from high-trust but low-density sources such as from wind tunnel experiments. This means that the quantified uncertainty of the force and moment database is higher quality as it includes this high fidelity wind tunnel data. This motivates the idea to use the force and moment database uncertainty when constructing the surface pressure database uncertainty. The method utilizes the statistical idea of a copula in order to generate surface pressures that match with uncertain integrated force and moment distributions as well as being consistent with known CFD data. This statistical consistency is quantified by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy two-sample test. The predictive error of the method is also approximated using leave-one-out error estimation and the good overall performance of the method is presented using probability boxes in a simulated uncertainty scenario.

SLS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Effect of partially-clouded scenes on the determination of ozone

Differences in wavelength pair ozone values determined from Backscattered Ultraviolet (BUV) instrument measurements are directly correlated with scene reflectivity which, in turn, is a function of scene cloudiness. At low solar zenith angles (overhead sun), maximum discrepancies between pair values of 2 to 3 percent. These discrepancies are believed to be due to algorithmic behavior and imply a mean error in the final derived ozone of approximately 5 percent for cases of 50 percent reflectivity. Results using a new algorithm show a significant decrease in pair discrepancy and, therefore, in the error of the final derived ozone.

Seftor, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Combining Satellite and in Situ Data with Models to Support Climate Data Records in Ocean Biology

The satellite ocean color data record spans multiple decades and, like most long-term satellite observations of the Earth, comes from many sensors. Unfortunately, global and regional chlorophyll estimates from the overlapping missions show substantial biases, limiting their use in combination to construct consistent data records. SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua differed by 13% globally in overlapping time segments, 2003-2007. For perspective, the maximum change in annual means over the entire Sea WiFS mission era was about 3%, and this included an El NinoLa Nina transition. These discrepancies lead to different estimates of trends depending upon whether one uses SeaWiFS alone for the 1998-2007 (no significant change), or whether MODIS is substituted for the 2003-2007 period (18% decline, P less than 0.05). Understanding the effects of climate change on the global oceans is difficult if different satellite data sets cannot be brought into conformity. The differences arise from two causes: 1) different sensors see chlorophyll differently, and 2) different sensors see different chlorophyll. In the first case, differences in sensor band locations, bandwidths, sensitivity, and time of observation lead to different estimates of chlorophyll even from the same location and day. In the second, differences in orbit and sensitivities to aerosols lead to sampling differences. A new approach to ocean color using in situ data from the public archives forces different satellite data to agree to within interannual variability. The global difference between Sea WiFS and MODIS is 0.6% for 2003-2007 using this approach. It also produces a trend using the combination of SeaWiFS and MODIS that agrees with SeaWiFS alone for 1998-2007. This is a major step to reducing errors produced by the first cause, sensor-related discrepancies. For differences that arise from sampling, data assimilation is applied. The underlying geographically complete fields derived from a free-running model is unaffected by solar zenith angle requirements and obscuration from clouds and aerosols. Combined with in situ dataenhanced satellite data, the model is forced into consistency using data assimilation. This approach eliminates sampling discrepancies from satellites. Combining the reduced differences of satellite data sets using in situ data, and the removal of sampling biases using data assimilation, we generate consistent data records of ocean color. These data records can support investigations of long-term effects of climate change on ocean biology over multiple satellites, and can improve the consistency of future satellite data sets.

Gregg, Watson↗
NASA NTRS1984

Mach 6 flow-field and boundary-layer surveys beneath the forebody of an airbreathing missile

A wind tunnel investigation has been conducted to determine the flow characteristics of the shock layer beneath the forebody of a hypersonic, airbreathing missile incorporating an aft-mounted inlet. In the inviscid part of the flow field, the measured parameters were in agreement with those predicted by a three-dimensional Method of Characteristics theory. At test conditions matching full scale Mach and Reynolds numbers at an altitude for maximum L/D cruise, boundary layer transition occurred downstream of the inlet face. While this means that a full size vehicle would have a more easily separated boundary layer, it is noted that the Reynolds number discrepancy between wind tunnel and actual flight conditions may result in a movement of the transition point to somewhere upstream of the inlet.

Johnston, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Ocean to Precipitation Induced Freshwater Flux

We have performed a series of experiments using an ocean model to study the sensitivity of tropical Pacific Ocean to variations in precipitation induced freshwater fluxes. Variations in these fluxes arise from natural causes on all time scales. In addition, estimates of these fluxes are uncertain because of differences among measurement techniques. The model used is a quasi-isopycnal model, covering the Pacific from 40 S to 40 N. The surface forcing is constructed from observed wind stress, evaporation, precipitation, and surface temperature (SST) fields. The heat flux is produced with an iterative technique so as to maintain the model close to the observed climatology, but with only a weak damping to that climatology. Climatological estimates of evaporation are combined with various estimates of precipitation to determine the net surface freshwater flux. Results indicate that increased freshwater input decreases salinity as expected, but increases temperatures in the upper ocean. Using the freshwater flux estimated from the Microwave Sounding Unit leads to a warming of up to 0.6 C in the western Pacific over a case with zero net freshwater flux. SST is sensitive to the discrepancies among different precipitation observations, with root-mean-square differences in SST on the order of 0.2-0.3 C. The change in SST is more pronounced in the eastern Pacific, with differences of over 1 C found among the various precipitation products. Interannual variation in precipitation during El Nino events leads to increased warming. During the winter of 1982-83, freshwater flux accounts for about 0.4 C (approximately 10-15% of the maximum warming) of the surface warming in the central-eastern Pacific. Thus, the error of SST caused by the discrepancies in precipitation products is more than half of the SST anomaly produced by the interannual variability of observed precipitation. Further experiments, in which freshwater flux anomalies are imposed in the western, central, and eastern Pacific, show that the influence of net freshwater flux is also spatially dependent. The imposition of freshwater flux in the far western Pacific leads to a trapping of salinity anomaly to the surface layers near the equator. An identical flux imposed in the central Pacific produces deeper and off-equatorial salinity anomalies. The contrast between these two simulations is consistent with other simulations of the western Pacific barrier layer information.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS1981

Comparison of theory and in situ observations for electron and ion distributions in the near wake of the Explorer 31 and AE-C satellites

Measurements of electron density, plasma potential, and mean ion mass from the Explorer 31 satellite, and measurements of ion current, plasma potential, and ion composition from the Atmosphere Explorer C satellite were used in a comparative study with Parker's theory regarding the charged particle distribution in the near wake of an ionospheric satellite (1976). It is shown that theory and experiment agree fairly well in the angle-of-attack range between 90 and 135 deg. In the maximum rarefaction zone (between 145 and 180 deg), however, the theoretical model overestimates the measured ion depletion by several orders of magnitude. A comparison between theory and the Explorer 31 electron measurements shows that the theory again overestimates the electron depletion. These discrepancies are mainly due to the use of a steady-state theory and a single ion equation (using a mean ion mass). Improved agreement between theory and experiment can be obtained by the use of the time-dependent Vlasov-Poisson equations with separate equations for the various ion species.

Samir, U.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling of mineral dust in the atmosphere: Sources, transport, and optical thickness

A global three-dimensional model of the atmospheric mineral dust cycle is developed for the study of its impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere. The model includes four size classes of minearl dust, whose source distributions are based on the distributions of vegetation, soil texture and soil moisture. Uplift and deposition are parameterized using analyzed winds and rainfall statistics that resolve high-frequency events. Dust transport in the atmosphere is simulated with the tracer transport model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The simulated seasonal variations of dust concentrations show general reasonable agreement with the observed distributions, as do the size distributions at several observing sites. The discrepancies between the simulated and the observed dust concentrations point to regions of significant land surface modification. Monthly distribution of aerosol optical depths are calculated from the distribution of dust particle sizes. The maximum optical depth due to dust is 0.4-0.5 in the seasonal mean. The main uncertainties, about a factor of 3-5, in calculating optical thicknesses arise from the crude resolution of soil particle sizes, from insufficient constraint by the total dust loading in the atmosphere, and from our ignorance about adhesion, agglomeration, uplift, and size distributions of fine dust particles (less than 1 micrometer).

Tegen, Ina↗
NASA NTRS1992

Second order closure modeling of turbulent buoyant wall plumes

Non-intrusive measurements of scalar and momentum transport in turbulent wall plumes, using a combined technique of laser Doppler anemometry and laser-induced fluorescence, has shown some interesting features not present in the free jet or plumes. First, buoyancy-generation of turbulence is shown to be important throughout the flow field. Combined with low-Reynolds-number turbulence and near-wall effect, this may raise the anisotropic turbulence structure beyond the prediction of eddy-viscosity models. Second, the transverse scalar fluxes do not correspond only to the mean scalar gradients, as would be expected from gradient-diffusion modeling. Third, higher-order velocity-scalar correlations which describe turbulent transport phenomena could not be predicted using simple turbulence models. A second-order closure simulation of turbulent adiabatic wall plumes, taking into account the recent progress in scalar transport, near-wall effect and buoyancy, is reported in the current study to compare with the non-intrusive measurements. In spite of the small velocity scale of the wall plumes, the results showed that low-Reynolds-number correction is not critically important to predict the adiabatic cases tested and cannot be applied beyond the maximum velocity location. The mean and turbulent velocity profiles are very closely predicted by the second-order closure models. but the scalar field is less satisfactory, with the scalar fluctuation level underpredicted. Strong intermittency of the low-Reynolds-number flow field is suspected of these discrepancies. The trends in second- and third-order velocity-scalar correlations, which describe turbulent transport phenomena, are also predicted in general, with the cross-streamwise correlations better than the streamwise one. Buoyancy terms modeling the pressure-correlation are shown to improve the prediction slightly. The effects of equilibrium time-scale ratio and boundary condition are also discussed.

Zhu, Gang↗
NASA NTRS2006

Radiative Effect of Clouds on Tropospheric Chemistry in a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model

Clouds exert an important influence on tropospheric photochemistry through modification of solar radiation that determines photolysis frequencies (J-values). We assess the radiative effect of clouds on photolysis frequencies and key oxidants in the troposphere with a global three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation system (GEOS DAS) at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We focus on the year of 2001 with the GEOS-3 meteorological observations. Photolysis frequencies are calculated using the Fast-J radiative transfer algorithm. The GEOS-3 global cloud optical depth and cloud fraction are evaluated and generally consistent with the satellite retrieval products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Results using the linear assumption, which assumes linear scaling of cloud optical depth with cloud fraction in a grid box, show global mean OH concentrations generally increase by less than 6% because of the radiative effect of clouds. The OH distribution shows much larger changes (with maximum decrease of approx.20% near the surface), reflecting the opposite effects of enhanced (weakened) photochemistry above (below) clouds. The global mean photolysis frequencies for J[O1D] and J[NO2] in the troposphere change by less than 5% because of clouds; global mean O3 concentrations in the troposphere increase by less than 5%. This study shows tropical upper tropospheric O3 to be less sensitive to the radiative effect of clouds than previously reported (approx.5% versus approx.20-30%). These results emphasize that the dominant effect of clouds is to influence the vertical redistribution of the intensity of photochemical activity while global average effects remain modest, again contrasting with previous studies. Differing vertical distributions of clouds may explain part, but not the majority, of these discrepancies between models. Using an approximate random overlap or a maximum-random overlap scheme to take account of the effect of cloud overlap in the vertical reduces the impact of clouds on photochemistry but does not significantly change our results with respect to the modest global average effect.

Liu, Hongyu↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of the accuracy of dynamic flight-determined coefficients

This paper discusses means of assessing the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained from dynamic flight data. The commonly used analytical predictors of accuracy are compared from both statistical and simplified geometric standpoints. Emphasizing practical considerations, such as modeling error, the accuracy predictions are evaluated with real and simulated data. Improved computations of the Cramer-Rao bound to correct large discrepancies caused by colored noise and modeling error are presented. This corrected Cramer-Rao bound is the best available analytical predictor of accuracy. Engineering judgement, aided by such analytical tools, is the final arbiter of accuracy estimation.

Maine, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Representation of Tropical Storms by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2

This study examines the veracity of the tropical cyclone (TC) statistics estimated from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) global atmospheric reanalysis, focusing on the climatological-mean genesis regions, tracks and their lifetime maximum intensity, as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variations in TC activity. The results are validated against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data for 1980-2016. MERRA-2 represents the spatial distribution of the TC genesis location and the tracks realistically well over all main development regions (MDRs), but with notable discrepancies including too weak TC activity over the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea and too strong activity over the North Indian Ocean. Over the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic, MERRA-2 underestimates recurving TCs steered by background westerlies in the mid-latitudes and thereby exaggerates northwestward moving TCs, resulting in an overestimate of the landfall probability in East Asia and North America. Excessive development of TCs over the Bay of Bengal also tends to exaggerate the landfall probability in India. In spite of the discrepancies in the annual TC number, the seasonal variation of TC genesis is realistic in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 also captures the TC intensity relationship between the minimum pressure and the maximum surface wind speed at the mature stage, although the maximum intensity is weaker than in the observations. While MERRA-2 tends to reproduce the interannual variations of the observed TC number and the power dissipation index (PDI), the level of accuracy depends on the region. MERRA-2 describes the changes in the TC genesis region and tracks realistically according to the different phases of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), although it is less realistic over the North Indian Ocean.

International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewa↗
NASA NTRS1981

The Theory and Practice of Estimating the Accuracy of Dynamic Flight-Determined Coefficients

Means of assessing the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained from dynamic flight data are discussed. The most commonly used analytical predictors of accuracy are derived and compared from both statistical and simplified geometrics standpoints. The accuracy predictions are evaluated with real and simulated data, with an emphasis on practical considerations, such as modeling error. Improved computations of the Cramer-Rao bound to correct large discrepancies due to colored noise and modeling error are presented. The corrected Cramer-Rao bound is shown to be the best available analytical predictor of accuracy, and several practical examples of the use of the Cramer-Rao bound are given. Engineering judgement, aided by such analytical tools, is the final arbiter of accuracy estimation.

Maine, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A correlative study of simultaneously measured He(++) fluxes in the solar wind and in the magnetosphere utilizing Imp-1 and 1971-089A satellite data

Simultaneously measured He(++) fluxes in the solar wind and in the magnetosphere were studied using data from the plasma spectrometer on the Imp I satellite and the energetic ion mass spectrometer on the low altitude polar orbiting satellite 1971-89A. A detailed comparison of the He(++) energy spectra measured simultaneously in the solar wind and in the low altitude dayside polar cusp on March 7, 1972 was made. The energy-per-unit-charge range of the energetic ion mass spectrometer on board the polar orbiting satellite was 700 eV to 12 keV. Within this range there was a clear maximum in the He(++) energy spectrum at approximately 1.5 keV/nucleon. There was not a clearly defined maximum in the H(+) spectrum, but the data were consistent with a peak between 0.7 and 1.0 keV/nucleon. Both spectra could be reasonably well fit with a convecting Maxwellian plus a high energy tail; however, the mean velocity for He(++) distribution was significantly greater than that for the H(+) distribution. The simultaneous solar wind measurements showed the mean velocities for both ion species to be approximately 600 km/sec. The discrepancies between the relative velocity distributions in the low altitude cusp and those in the solar wind are consistent with a potential difference of approximately 1.4 kV along their flow direction between the two points of observation.

Shelley, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The 183-WSL Fast Rain Rate Retrieval Algorithm. Part II: Validation Using Ground Radar Measurements

The Water vapour Strong Lines at 183 GHz (183-WSL) algorithm is a method for the retrieval of rain rates and precipitation type classification (convectivestratiform), that makes use of the water vapor absorption lines centered at 183.31 GHz of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit module B (AMSU-B) and of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) flying on NOAA-15-18 and NOAA-19Metop-A satellite series, respectively. The characteristics of this algorithm were described in Part I of this paper together with comparisons against analogous precipitation products. The focus of Part II is the analysis of the performance of the 183-WSL technique based on surface radar measurements. The ground truth dataset consists of 2.5 years of rainfall intensity fields from the NIMROD European radar network which covers North-Western Europe. The investigation of the 183-WSL retrieval performance is based on a twofold approach: 1) the dichotomous statistic is used to evaluate the capabilities of the method to identify rain and no-rain clouds; 2) the accuracy statistic is applied to quantify the errors in the estimation of rain rates.The results reveal that the 183-WSL technique shows good skills in the detection of rainno-rain areas and in the quantification of rain rate intensities. The categorical analysis shows annual values of the POD, FAR and HK indices varying in the range 0.80-0.82, 0.330.36 and 0.39-0.46, respectively. The RMSE value is 2.8 millimeters per hour for the whole period despite an overestimation in the retrieved rain rates. Of note is the distribution of the 183-WSL monthly mean rain rate with respect to radar: the seasonal fluctuations of the average rainfalls measured by radar are reproduced by the 183-WSL. However, the retrieval method appears to suffer for the winter seasonal conditions especially when the soil is partially frozen and the surface emissivity drastically changes. This fact is verified observing the discrepancy distribution diagrams where2the 183-WSL performs better during the warm months, while during the winter time the discrepancies with radar measurements tends to maximum values. A stable behavior of the 183-WSL algorithm is demonstrated over the whole study period with an overall overestimation for rain rates intensities lower than 1 millimeter per hour. This threshold is crucial especially in wintertime where the low precipitation regime is difficult to be classified.

validationradar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulations of a Swept Wing with Leading-Edge Ice

The aerodynamic performance of a swept wing derived from the Common Research Model wing with high-fidelity and smooth leading-edge ice shapes is evaluated using wall-modeled large-eddy simulations. Two mesh paradigms are considered within the Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics framework: structured hybrid curvilinear body-fitted/immersed-boundary and unstructured Voronoi. The curvilinear approach models the effect of the ice on the flow through penalty terms and the Voronoi strategy includes the ice representation directly in the mesh.Aerodynamic loads, surface pressure profiles, and skin-friction streamlines are compared against experimental results collected at the Wichita State University wind tunnel at a Mach number of 0.18 and a Reynolds number per mean aerodynamic chord of 1.6 million. For the curvilinear simulations with high-fidelity ice, results are sensitive to spanwise mesh resolution near the leading edge, where insufficient spanwise resolution leads to a spanwise running vortexaft of the high-fidelity ice, which is partially removed with increasing spanwise resolution. For the Voronoi simulations with high-fidelity ice, refining the mesh led to good convergence towards the experimental results with the best case demonstrating a maximum discrepancy of three lift counts relative to the experiment across a range of angles of attack from about 5 to 24 degrees, validating the shrink-wrapping procedure used for the ice. For the smooth ice, the curvilinear approach consistently under-predicted the upper surface suction leading to an under-prediction in lift, but did not demonstrate the pronounced over-prediction in upper surface suction near the leading edge observed in the Voronoi simulations.

AATT↗
NASA NTRS1993

Solar imaging vector magnetograph

This report describes an instrument which has been constructed at the University of Hawaii to make observations of the magnetic field in solar active regions. Detailed knowledge of active region magnetic structures is crucial to understanding many solar phenomena, because the magnetic field both defines the morphology of structures seen in the solar atmosphere and is the apparent energy source for solar flares. The new vector magnetograph was conceived in response to a perceived discrepancy between the capabilities of X ray imaging telescopes to be operating during the current solar maximum and those of existing magnetographs. There were no space-based magnetographs planned for this period; the existing ground-based instruments variously suffered from lack of sensitivity, poor time resolution, inadequate spatial resolution or unreliable sites. Yet the studies of flares and their relationship to the solar corona planned for the 1991-1994 maximum absolutely required high quality vector magnetic field measurements. By 'vector' measurements we mean that the observation attempts to deduce the complete strength and direction of the field at the measurement site, rather than just the line of sight component as obtained by a traditional longitudinal magnetograph. Knowledge of the vector field permits one to calculate photospheric electric currents, which might play a part in heating the corona, and to calculate energy stored in coronal magnetic fields as the result of such currents. Information about the strength and direction of magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere can be obtained in a number of ways, but quantitative data is best obtained by observing Zeeman-effect polarization in solar spectral lines. The technique requires measuring the complete state of polarization at one or more wavelengths within a magnetically sensitive line of the solar spectrum. This measurement must be done for each independent spatial point for which one wants magnetic field data. All the measurements need to be done in a time short compared to the time scale for changes of the solar features being observed. Were it possible, one would want to record all the needed data simultaneously, since temporal variation of atmospheric seeing degrades both the image and the polarization sensitivity. Since the measurements must span four dimensions, two spatial plus polarization and wavelength, we had some freedom to design the instrument to favor some dimensions over others in terms of simultaneity. Our earlier instrument, the Haleakala Stokes Polarimeter, records a range of wavelengths spanning two spectral lines in each reading, but requires two seconds to determine the polarization state and obtains spatial information only by assembling a long sequence of measurements at single locations on the sun. The new instrument sacrifices spectral detail and accuracy in favor of greatly improved imaging characteristics. The scientific goals for this instrument were to measure surface magnetic fields with enough accuracy to permit calculations of photospheric currents, but with a field of view covering an entire typical active region, high spatial resolution, and a fast enough temporal cadence for detecting flare-associated changes in magnetic structures.

Canfield, Richard C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-­‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗