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Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Curiosity Rover's Exploration of Glen Torridon, Gale Crater, Mars: An Overview of the Campaign and Scientific Results

The Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, explored the clay mineral-bearing Glen Torridon region for 1 Martian year between January 2019 and January 2021, including a short campaign onto the Greenheugh pediment. The Glen Torridon campaign sought to characterize the geology of the area, seek evidence of habitable environments, and document the onset of a potentially global climatic transition during the Hesperian era. Curiosity roved 5 km in total throughout Glen Torridon, from the Vera Rubin ridge to the northern margin of the Greenheugh pediment. Curiosity acquired samples from 11 drill holes during this campaign and conducted the first Martian thermochemolytic-based organics detection experiment with the Sample Analysis at Mars instrument suite. The lowest elevations within Glen Torridon represent a continuation of lacustrine Murray formation deposits, but overlying widespread cross bedded sandstones indicate an interval of more energetic fluvial environments and prompted the definition of a new stratigraphic formation in the Mount Sharp group called the Carolyn Shoemaker formation. Glen Torridon hosts abundant phyllosilicates yet remains compositionally and mineralogically comparable to the rest of the Mount Sharp group. Glen Torridon samples have a great diversity and abundance of sulfur-bearing organic molecules, which are consistent with the presence of ancient refractory organic matter. The Glen Torridon region experienced heterogeneous diagenesis, with the most striking alteration occurring just below the Siccar Point unconformity at the Greenheugh pediment. Results from the pediment campaign show that the capping sandstone formed within the Stimson Hesperian aeolian sand sea that experienced seasonal variations in wind direction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An initial exploration of Bayesian model calibration for estimating the composition of rocks and soils on Mars

The Mars Curiosity rover carries an instrument, ChemCam, designed to measure the composition of surface rocks and soil using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). The measured spectra from this instrument must be analyzed to identify the component elements in the target sample, as well as their relative proportions. This process, which we call disaggregation, is complicated by so-called matrix effects, which describe nonlinear changes in the relative heights of emission lines as an unknown function of composition due to atomic interactions within the LIBS plasma. In this work, we explore the use of the plasma physics code ATOMIC, developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, for the disaggregation task. ATOMIC has recently been used to model LIBS spectra and can robustly reproduce matrix effects from first principles. The ability of ATOMIC to predict LIBS spectra presents an exciting opportunity to perform disaggregation in a manner not yet tried in the LIBS community, namely via Bayesian model calibration. However, using it directly to solve our inverse problem is computationally intractable due to the large parameter space and the computation time required to produce a single output. Therefore, we also explore the use of emulators as a fast solution for this analysis. We discuss a proof of concept Gaussian process emulator for disaggregating two-element compounds of sodium and copper. The training and test datasets were simulated with ATOMIC using a Latin hypercube design. After testing the performance of the emulator, we successfully recover the composition of 25 test spectra with Bayesian model calibration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Geochemistry of Mars with Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS): ChemCam, SuperCam, and MarSCoDe

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) has been used to explore the chemistry of three regions of Mars on respective missions by NASA and CNSA, with CNES contributions. All three LIBS instruments use ~100 mm diameter telescopes projecting pulsed infrared laser beams of 10–14 mJ to enable LIBS at 2–10 m distances, eliminating the need to position the rover and instrument directly onto targets. Over 1.3 million LIBS spectra have been used to provide routine compositions for eight major elements and several minor and trace elements on >3000 targets on Mars. Onboard calibration targets common to all three instruments allow careful intercomparison of results. Operating over thirteen years, ChemCam on Curiosity has explored lacustrine sediments and diagenetic features in Gale crater, which was a long-lasting (>1 My) lake during Mars’ Hesperian period. SuperCam on Perseverance is exploring the ultramafic igneous floor, fluvial–deltaic features, and the rim of Jezero crater. MarSCoDe on the Zhurong rover investigated for one year the local blocks, soils, and transverse aeolian ridges of Utopia Planitia. The pioneering work of these three stand-off LIBS instruments paves the way for future space exploration with LIBS, where advantages of light-element (H, C, N, O) quantification can be used on icy regions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The sound of a Martian dust devil

Dust devils (convective vortices loaded with dust) are common at the surface of Mars, particularly at Jezero crater, the landing site of the Perseverance rover. They are indicators of atmospheric turbulence and are an important lifting mechanism for the Martian dust cycle. Improving our understanding of dust lifting and atmospheric transport is key for accurate simulation of the dust cycle and for the prediction of dust storms, in addition to being important for future space exploration as grain impacts are implicated in the degradation of hardware on the surface of Mars. Here we describe the sound of a Martian dust devil as recorded by the SuperCam instrument on the Perseverance rover. The dust devil encounter was also simultaneously imaged by the Perseverance rover’s Navigation Camera and observed by several sensors in the Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer instrument. Combining these unique multi-sensorial data with modelling, we show that the dust devil was around 25 m large, at least 118 m tall, and passed directly over the rover travelling at approximately 5 m s –1 . Acoustic signals of grain impacts recorded during the vortex encounter provide quantitative information about the number density of particles in the vortex. The sound of a Martian dust devil was inaccessible until SuperCam microphone recordings. This chance dust devil encounter demonstrates the potential of acoustic data for resolving the rapid wind structure of the Martian atmosphere and for directly quantifying wind-blown grain fluxes on Mars.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Amapari Marker Band Metal‐Enrichments: Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Surface and Subsurface Water and Weathering in Gale Crater

NASA's Curiosity rover is exploring a 5 km tall sedimentary mound that is hypothesized to record the transition from a warm and wet (phyllosilicate-rich) to a cold and drier (sulfate-rich) Mars. Evidence of magnesium sulfate-bearing rock has shown that Curiosity has crossed through this phyllosilicate-sulfate transition. Recently, Curiosity arrived at the Amapari Marker Band, a darker, indurated unit that can be traced laterally for tens of kilometers in orbiter images. Here, Curiosity found evidence for a very broad lake, and bedforms interpreted as wave-ripple laminated sedimentary rock that likely was deposited in shallow water in the explored location, before becoming a deeper lake. These rocks are enriched in Fe, Mn, and Zn which has major implications for groundwater paleohydrology in Gale crater. Three formation hypotheses are considered: concretion formation during early diagenetic alteration of shallow lake sediments, laterization or leaching of the sediments, and addition of Fe, Mn, and Zn by a mildly acidic and reducing groundwater interacting with a redox and/or pH front in a stratified lake. The preferred interpretation of the metal enrichments within the Amapari Marker band sedimentary rocks is that they formed in a shallow water environment at a redox and/or pH front within the ripple unit, which drove precipitation and concentration of metals. If the enrichments are due to groundwater alteration, these processes could link subsurface and surface environments. Water and the presence of high amounts of redox sensitive elements and other metals are favorable indicators for habitability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The dynamic atmospheric and aeolian environment of Jezero crater, Mars

Despite the importance of sand and dust to Mars geomorphology, weather, and exploration, the processes that move sand and that raise dust to maintain Mars’ ubiquitous dust haze and to produce dust storms have not been well quantified in situ, with missions lacking either the necessary sensors or a sufficiently active aeolian environment. Perseverance rover’s novel environmental sensors and Jezero crater’s dusty environment remedy this. In Perseverance’s first 216 sols, four convective vortices raised dust locally, while, on average, four passed the rover daily, over 25% of which were significantly dusty (“dust devils”). More rarely, dust lifting by nonvortex wind gusts was produced by daytime convection cells advected over the crater by strong regional daytime upslope winds, which also control aeolian surface features. One such event covered 10 times more area than the largest dust devil, suggesting that dust devils and wind gusts could raise equal amounts of dust under nonstorm conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seismic constraints from a Mars impact experiment using InSight and Perseverance

NASA’s InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) mission has operated a sophisticated suite of seismology and geophysics instruments on the surface of Mars since its arrival in 2018. On 18 February 2021, we attempted to detect the seismic and acoustic waves produced by the entry, descent and landing of the Perseverance rover using the sensors onboard the InSight lander. Similar observations have been made on Earth using data from both crewed and uncrewed spacecraft, and on the Moon during the Apollo era, but never before on Mars or another planet. This was the only seismic event to occur on Mars since InSight began operations that had an a priori known and independently constrained timing and location. It therefore had the potential to be used as a calibration for other marsquakes recorded by InSight. Here we report that no signal from Perseverance’s entry, descent and landing is identifiable in the InSight data. Nonetheless, measurements made during the landing window enable us to place constraints on the distance–amplitude relationships used to predict the amplitude of seismic waves produced by planetary impacts and place in situ constraints on Martian impact seismic efficiency (the fraction of the impactor kinetic energy converted into seismic energy).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radiation-induced alteration of apatite on the surface of Mars: first in situ observations with SuperCam Raman onboard Perseverance

Abstract Planetary exploration relies considerably on mineral characterization to advance our understanding of the solar system, the planets and their evolution. Thus, we must understand past and present processes that can alter materials exposed on the surface, affecting space mission data. Here, we analyze the first dataset monitoring the evolution of a known mineral target in situ on the Martian surface, brought there as a SuperCam calibration target onboard the Perseverance rover. We used Raman spectroscopy to monitor the crystalline state of a synthetic apatite sample over the first 950 Martian days (sols) of the Mars2020 mission. We note significant variations in the Raman spectra acquired on this target, specifically a decrease in the relative contribution of the Raman signal to the total signal. These observations are consistent with the results of a UV-irradiation test performed in the laboratory under conditions mimicking ambient Martian conditions. We conclude that the observed evolution reflects an alteration of the material, specifically the creation of electronic defects, due to its exposure to the Martian environment and, in particular, UV irradiation. This ongoing process of alteration of the Martian surface needs to be taken into account for mineralogical space mission data analysis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Manganese-Rich Sandstones as an Indicator of Ancient Oxic Lake Water Conditions in Gale Crater, Mars

Manganese has been observed on Mars by the NASA Curiosity rover in a variety of contexts and is an important indicator of redox processes in hydrologic systems on Earth. Within the Murray formation, an ancient primarily fine-grained lacustrine sedimentary deposit in Gale crater, Mars, have observed up to 45× enrichment in manganese and up to 1.5× enrichment in iron within coarser grained bedrock targets compared to the mean Murray sediment composition. This enrichment in manganese coincides with the transition between two stratigraphic units within the Murray: Sutton Island, interpreted as a lake margin environment, and Blunts Point, interpreted as a lake environment. On Earth, lacustrine environments are common locations of manganese precipitation due to highly oxidizing conditions in the lakes. Here, we explore three mechanisms for ferromanganese oxide precipitation at this location: authigenic precipitation from lake water along a lake shore, authigenic precipitation from reduced groundwater discharging through porous sands along a lake shore, and early diagenetic precipitation from groundwater through porous sands. All three scenarios require highly oxidizing conditions and we discuss oxidants that may be responsible for the oxidation and precipitation of manganese oxides. This work has important implications for the habitability of Mars to microbes that could have used Mn redox reactions, owing to its multiple redox states, as an energy source for metabolism.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Manganese-rich sandstones as an indicator of ancient oxic lake water conditions in Gale crater, Mars

Manganese has been observed on Mars by the NASA Curiosity rover in a variety of contexts and is an important indicator of redox processes in hydrologic systems on Earth. Within the Murray formation, an ancient primarily fine-grained lacustrine sedimentary deposit in Gale crater, Mars, have observed up to 45× enrichment in manganese and up to 1.5× enrichment in iron within coarser grained bedrock targets compared to the mean Murray sediment composition. This enrichment in manganese coincides with the transition between two stratigraphic units within the Murray: Sutton Island, interpreted as a lake margin environment, and Blunts Point, interpreted as a lake environment. On Earth, lacustrine environments are common locations of manganese precipitation due to highly oxidizing conditions in the lakes. Here, we explore three mechanisms for ferromanganese oxide precipitation at this location: authigenic precipitation from lake water along a lake shore, authigenic precipitation from reduced groundwater discharging through porous sands along a lake shore, and early diagenetic precipitation from groundwater through porous sands. All three scenarios require highly oxidizing conditions and we discuss oxidants that may be responsible for the oxidation and precipitation of manganese oxides. This work has important implications for the habitability of Mars to microbes that could have used Mn redox reactions, owing to its multiple redox states, as an energy source for metabolism.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗