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At least 19 records

SPS market analysis

A market analysis task included personal interviews by GE personnel and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective small solar thermal power systems (SPS) users. Over 500 firms were contacted, including three ownership classes of electric utilities, industrial firms in the top SIC codes for energy consumption, and design engineering firms. A market demand model was developed which utilizes the data base developed by personal interviews and surveys, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential markets for SPS.

Goff, H. C.

Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Market Analysis Model

The RLV Market Analysis model is at best a rough order approximation of actual market behavior. However, it does give a quick indication if the flights exists to enable an economically viable RLV, and the assumptions necessary for the vehicle to capture those flights. Additional analysis, market research, and updating with the latest information on payloads and launches would improve the model. Plans are to update the model as new information becomes available and new requirements are levied. This tool will continue to be a vital part of NASA's RLV business analysis capability for the foreseeable future.

Prince, Frank A.

High Speed Point-to-Point Market Analysis Quick Review

A brief and final update is presented that summarizes recent high-speed studies conducted under different sponsorships leading up to 2021. Specifically, work sponsored by the Portfolio Analysis and Management Office is reflected against contracted efforts sponsored by the Hypersonic Technology Project.

Aeronautics

An approach to market analysis for lighter than air transportation of freight

An approach is presented to marketing analysis for lighter than air vehicles in a commercial freight market. After a discussion of key characteristics of supply and demand factors, a three-phase approach to marketing analysis is described. The existing transportation systems are quantitatively defined and possible roles for lighter than air vehicles within this framework are postulated. The marketing analysis views the situation from the perspective of both the shipper and the carrier. A demand for freight service is assumed and the resulting supply characteristics are determined. Then, these supply characteristics are used to establish the demand for competing modes. The process is then iterated to arrive at the market solution.

Roberts, P. O.

Subsonic Single Aft Engine Narrowbody (SUSAN) Freighter Concept and Market Analysis

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with mounted wing battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition, however, additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft are needed. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Jacob M. Wishart

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart

RePED 250: Manufacturing and Market Analysis of High-Temperature Alternators

The novel repetitive pulsed electric drill 250 (RePED 250) has the potential to greatly lower the costs and drilling times of geothermal projects. This tool discharges electric pulses through hard rock formations, shattering the rock in tension and allowing it to be quickly removed. One hurdle in bringing this technology to market is the RePED 250 downhole alternator. This component is essential for supplying power to the electronic drilling tool. There are currently no downhole tools on the market that meet the RePED 250 alternator's high temperature and power requirements. This report focuses on the path to commercialization for this novel alternator technology being developed as part of the RePED 250 project. One aim of this work is to identify the geothermal market size for the RePED 250 alternator, as well as other potential markets for this technology outside of geothermal. The geothermal market is very small, with only approximately 13 wells drilled in the United States each year. The worldwide market is several times this size and growing each year. The ability of the RePED 250 technology to drastically reduce the cost of geothermal projects may also lead to an increase in this market size. Technology developed for the high-temperature, high-power RePED 250 alternator can also be used to create high-temperature and high-power motors. These motors and alternators will have potential applications in oil and gas drilling, a $300 billion dollar industry in the United States alone, as well as in more distant industries such as aircraft, weapon systems, space exploration, and electric vehicles. Other aspects of the RePED 250 alternator's path to commercialization are also analyzed, including the supply chain for production materials and potential manufacturing methods. The supply chain and manufacturing practices for low-temperature motors and alternators are well established and require relatively minor changes for the high-temperature and high-power RePED 250 alternator. Sourcing for high-temperature materials has been identified, as well as potential supply chain risks. These most notably include electrical steel and high-temperature samarium cobalt (SmCo) magnets. Overall, these risks are not expected to be significant at the likely manufacturing scale required for the RePED 250.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Solar Energy Zone Market Analysis for the Afton Region of New Mexico

This report examines the commercial viability of the Afton solar energy zone (SEZ) in southern New Mexico based on market conditions in 2022. The Bureau of Land Management may designate a SEZ on federal land to expedite environmental review and permitting for solar energy projects. The purpose of this analysis is to understand whether current market conditions support solar development in the SEZ.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

DOE/NASA SIMS Prototype Solar System, no. 4. Part 1: Market analysis. Part 2: Modular manufacturing cost estimate

The findings of the IIT Research Institute (IITRI) market study of the SIMS Prototype System 4, a hot water (DHW) system are documented. The feasibility of prepackaging currently available solar heating components into modular subsystems for site assembly is addressed. A documented design and installation procedure and a performance test report were prepared. The potential markets and applications for this particular system in the nonfederal market are profiled by assessing the needs and requirements of potential users and specifiers, by characterizing the nature of the market and the competitive environment, by identifying the barriers to commercial acceptance, and by estimating the size of the potential market.

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Obstacle detectors for automated transit vehicles: A technoeconomic and market analysis

A search was conducted to identify the technical and economic characteristics of both NASA and nonNASA obstacle detectors. The findings, along with market information were compiled and analyzed for consideration by DOT and NASA in decisions about any future automated transit vehicle obstacle detector research, development, or applications project. Currently available obstacle detectors and systems under development are identified by type (sonic, capacitance, infrared/optical, guided radar, and probe contact) and compared with the three NASA devices selected as possible improvements or solutions to the problems in existing obstacle detection systems. Cost analyses and market forecasts individually for the AGT and AMTV markets are included.

Lockerby, C. E.

Market analysis of seismic security systems

This report provides information on the commercialization potential of the NASA Activity Monitor. Data on current commercially available products, market size, and growth are combined with information on the NASA technology and the projected impact of this technology on the market.

Taglio, S.

Market Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Development Potential on Bureau of Land Management Land in Arizona

This report explores the magnitude of the potential buildout of new solar development on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land in Arizona based on market conditions in 2023. The BLM currently has 18 solar energy zones (SEZs), including three in Arizona, where land has undergone preliminary reviews and is suitable for expedited environmental review and permitting for solar energy projects. The BLM also administers variance areas that are outside SEZs and may consider right-of-way (ROW) applications for utility-scale solar development on such variance lands. Within variance areas in Arizona, the BLM has further identified Renewable Energy Development Area (REDA) lands that are likely well suited to solar or wind development. The purpose of the analysis reported here is to explore the anticipated extent of new solar development on BLM land in the state by 2035.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Preliminary market analysis for large zeolite crystals

Zeolite crystals are used in the manufacture of countless products today, which utilize their properties of absorption, ion exchange, and catalysis. It was determined that zeolites grown in space could be much larger in size than any of those currently available on Earth. The objective was to identify and examine some of the potential uses for these larger crystals. Of the several industries examined, the medical and nuclear industries offer the greatest potential.

Doblmaier, Thomas

SUSAN Single Aisle Market Analysis

SUSAN uses a 20MW class Electrified Aircraft Propulsion system to enable advanced Propulsion Airframe Integration (PAI) in transport category aircraft. Alternative fuels will be used to reduce the amount of emissions per energy used. By combining these features there is the potential to reduce aircraft emissions by 50% per passenger/mile while retaining the size, speed, and range of large regional jets. Problem: Aircraft emissions need to be reduced by at least a factor of two, with a goal of zero emissions. Constraint: Must use existing airport infrastructure, be flight certifiable, and be more cost effective Solution To Be Developed: Hybrid Electric Large Aircraft Specific Concept To Be Developed: SUSAN Electrofan

Jacob Wishart

Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

Taneja, N.

Coal gasification systems engineering and analysis. Appendix A: Coal gasification catalog

The scope of work in preparing the Coal Gasification Data Catalog included the following subtasks: (1) candidate system subsystem definition, (2) raw materials analysis, (3) market analysis for by-products, (4) alternate products analysis, (5) preliminary integrated facility requirements. Definition of candidate systems/subsystems includes the identity of and alternates for each process unit, raw material requirements, and the cost and design drivers for each process design.

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