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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Hydrogen Vehicles: Impacts of DOE Technical Targets on Market Acceptance and Societal Benefits

Hydrogen vehicles (H2V), including H2 internal combustion engine, fuel cell and fuel cell plugin hybrid, could greatly reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector. The U.S. Department of Energy has adopted targets for vehicle component technologies to address key technical barriers towidespread commercialization of H2Vs. This study estimates the market acceptance of H2Vs and the resulting societal benefits and subsidy in 41 scenarios that reflect a wide range of progress in meeting these technical targets. Important results include: (1) H2Vs could reach 20e70% market shares by 2050, depending on progress in achieving the technical targets.With a basic hydrogen infrastructure (w5% hydrogen availability), the H2V market share is estimated to be 2e8%. Fuel cell and hydrogen costs are the most important factors affecting the long-term market shares of H2Vs. (2) Meeting all technical targets on time could result in about an 80% cut in petroleumuse and a 62% (or 72% with aggressive electricity de-carbonization) reduction in GHG in 2050. (3) The required hydrogen infrastructure subsidy is estimated to range from $22 to $47 billion and the vehicle subsidy from $4 to $17 billion. (4) Long-term H2V market shares, societal benefits and hydrogen subsidies appear to be highly robust against delay in one target, if all other targets are met on time. R&D diversification could provide insurance for greater societal benefits. (5) Both H2Vs and plug-in electric vehicles could exceed 50% market shares by 2050, if all targets are met on time. The overlapping technology, the fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, appears attractive both in the short and long runs, but for different reasons.

alternative fuel vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2012

New England Wind Energy Education Project (NEWEEP) (Final Technical Report)

Project objective is to develop and disseminate accurate, objective information on critical wind energy issues impacting market acceptance of hundreds of land-based projects and vast off-shore wind developments proposed in the 6-state New England region, thereby accelerating the pace of wind installation from today's 140 MW towards the region's 20% by 2030 goals of 12,500 MW. Methodology: This objective will be accomplished by accumulating, developing, assembling timely, accurate, objective and detailed information representing the 'state of the knowledge' on critical wind energy issues impacting market acceptance, and widely disseminating such information. The target audience includes state agencies and local governments; utilities and grid operators; wind developers; agricultural and environmental groups and other NGOs; research organizations; host communities and the general public, particularly those in communities with planned or operating wind projects. Information will be disseminated through: (a) a series of topic-specific web conference briefings; (b) a one-day NEWEEP conference, back-to-back with a Utility Wind Interest Group one-day regional conference organized for this project; (c) posting briefing and conference materials on the New England Wind Forum (NEWF) web site and featuring the content on NEWF electronic newsletters distributed to an opt-in list of currently over 5000 individuals; (d) through interaction with and participation in Wind Powering America (WPA) state Wind Working Group meetings and WPA's annual All-States Summit, and (e) through the networks of project collaborators. Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC (lead) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory will staff the project, directed by an independent Steering Committee composed of a collaborative regional and national network of organizations. Major Participants - the Steering Committee: In addition to the applicants, the initial collaborators committing to form a Steering Committee consists of the Massachusetts Renewable Energy Trust; Maine Public Utilities Commission; New Hampshire office of Energy & Planning, the Connecticut Clean Energy Fund;, ISO New England; Utility Wind Interest Group; University of Massachusetts Wind Energy Center; Renewable Energy New England (a new partnership between the renewable energy industry and environmental public interest groups), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (conditionally). The Steering Committee will: (1) identify and prioritize topics of greatest interest or concern where detailed, objective and accurate information will advance the dialogue in the region; (2) identify critical outreach venues, influencers and experts; (3) direct and coordinate project staff; (4) assist project staff in planning briefings and conferences described below; (5) identify topics needing additional research or technical assistance and (6) identify and recruit additional steering committee members. Impacts/Benefits/Outcomes: By cutting through the clutter of competing and conflicting information on critical issues, this project is intended to encourage the market's acceptance of appropriately-sited wind energy generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Low-e Storm Windows: Market Assessment and Pathways to Market Transformation

Laboratory and field studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) demonstrate that the use of low-emissivity (low-e) storm windows can lead to significant heating and cooling energy savings in homes. This report examines the market for low-e storm windows based on market data, case studies, and recent experience with weatherization deployment programs. It uses information from interviews conducted with DOE researchers and industry partners involved in case studies and early deployment efforts related to low-e storm windows. In addition, this study examines potential barriers to market acceptance, assesses the market and energy savings potential, and identifies opportunities to transform the market for low-e storm windows and overcome market adoption barriers. Based on laboratory testing, case studies, and climate-based modeled energy savings, the installation of low-e storm windows is estimated to reduce heating and cooling consumption by 12 to 33% in residential homes. Individual home savings would depend on the overall condition of existing windows and home as well as climate conditions. Based on these heating and cooling saving ranges, low-e storm windows have a technical potential energy savings – that is, the energy savings that would result if all low-performing windows were covered with low-e storm windows – ranging from 0.7 to 1.96 quadrillion Btus primary (source) energy. Of this technical potential, this study estimates that market adoption of low-e storm windows could reasonably achieve savings of 140 trillion Btus of primary energy annually by 2025, assuming DOE implements a number of market transformation activities directed toward low-e storm window market adoption. To assess the marketability and market adoption potential of low-e storm windows, this study examines and characterizes the benefits and costs of the technology, the size and characteristics of likely target markets, the potential pathways to reach these markets, possible market barriers, and the likelihood of overcoming these barriers. A number of promising market transformation pathways are identified including existing weatherization assistance programs, utility energy-efficiency incentive programs, federally sponsored energy efficiency retrofit programs, standards and rating organizations, and federal building energy-efficiency mandates and programs. By working with storm window manufacturers, installers, energy-efficiency consortiums, and the Federal Energy Management Program, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building America program could implement a number of targeted outreach, education, and technical assistance programs to help effectively transform the market for low-e storm windows and have a measurable impact on reducing residential energy consumption over time.

Building America↗
DOE OSTI2015

Intermittent Renewable Management Pilot Phase 2

The Intermittent Renewable Management Pilot - Phase 2 (IRM2) was designed to study the feasibility of demand-side resources to participate into the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) wholesale market as proxy demand resources (PDR). The pilot study focused on understanding the issues related with direct participation of third-parties and customers including customer acceptance; market transformation challenges (wholesale market, technology); technical and operational feasibility; and value to the rate payers, DR resource owners and the utility on providing an enabling mechanism for DR resources into the wholesale markets. The customer had the option of committing to either three contiguous hour blocks for 24 days or six contiguous hours for 12 days a month with day-ahead notification that aligned with the CAISO integrated forward market. As a result of their being available, the customer was paid $10/ kilowatt (kW)-month for capacity in addition to CAISO energy settlements. The participants were limited to no more than a 2 megawatt (MW) capacity with a six-month commitment. Four participants successfully engaged in the pilot. In this report, we provide the description of the pilot, participant performance results, costs and value to participants as well as outline some of the issues encountered through the pilot. Results show that participants chose to participate with storage and the value of CAISO settlements were significantly lower than the capacity payments provided by the utility as incentive payments. In addition, this pilot revealed issues both on the participant side and system operations side. These issues are summarized in the report.The Intermittent Renewable Management Pilot - Phase 2 (IRM2) was designed to study the feasibility of demand-side resources to participate into the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) wholesale market as proxy demand resources (PDR). The pilot study focused on understanding the issues related with direct participation of third-parties and customers including customer acceptance; market transformation challenges (wholesale market, technology); technical and operational feasibility; and value to the rate payers, DR resource owners and the utility on providing an enabling mechanism for DR resources into the wholesale markets.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Design Options for Advanced Passive House Windows

Improvements in architectural glazing have long been identified as an efficient path to mitigate green house emissions, and the Passive House concept is a particularly effective concept for energy efficient housing construction in heating-dominated climate zones. Passive House Windows require a combination of superior thermal insulation (R or U-value) in combination with high solar heat gain performance (SHGC). For conventional window concepts that promise economical near-term market acceptance, this can be achieved with a careful combination of low-e glazing components (both class- and film-based) in multi-cavity Argon-filled Insulated Glazing Units (IGUs) for good ?center of glass? performance, selection of appropriate spacer concepts (to improve ?edge of glass? performance), and integration into high-performance window frames. This study presents the latest results of thermal modeling of Passive House windows, and compares the designs against Passive House performance metrics that apply to the European and North American markets. Window design options and their relevance to current market acceptance criteria will be discussed, and guidelines for balancing the design conflict between good R- or U-value and optimal SHGC will be presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Requirements for Enabling Extreme Fast Charging of High Energy Density Li-Ion Cells while Avoiding Lithium Plating

To improve electric vehicle market acceptance, the charge time of their batteries should be reduced to 10–15 minutes. However, achieving 4C to 6C charge rates with today’s batteries is only possible for cells with thin electrodes coming at the expense of low energy density and high battery manufacturing cost. An electrochemical model is validated versus high rate charge data for cells with several loadings. The model elucidates that the main limitations for high energy density cells are poor electrolyte transport resulting in salt depletion within the anode and Li plating at the graphite/separator interface. Next, the model is used to understand what future electrode and electrolyte properties can help enable 4C and 6C charging. Ideally, future electrolytes would be identified with 2X conductivity, 3–4X diffusivity, and transference number of 0.5–0.6. Alternatively charging at elevated temperatures enhances electrolyte transport by 1.5X conductivity and 2–3X diffusivity with a negligible effect on transference number. Another effective strategy to enable 4C and 6C charging is reducing electrode tortuosity. Conversely, increasing electrode porosity and negative/positive ratio are ineffective strategies to improve fast charge capability.

Batteries↗
DOE OSTI2012

Illinois Wind Workers Group

The Illinois Wind Working Group (IWWG) was founded in 2006 with about 15 members. It has grown to over 200 members today representing all aspects of the wind industry across the State of Illinois. In 2008, the IWWG developed a strategic plan to give direction to the group and its activities. The strategic plan identifies ways to address critical market barriers to the further penetration of wind. The key to addressing these market barriers is public education and outreach. Since Illinois has a restructured electricity market, utilities no longer have a strong control over the addition of new capacity within the state. Instead, market acceptance depends on willing landowners to lease land and willing county officials to site wind farms. Many times these groups are uninformed about the benefits of wind energy and unfamiliar with the process. Therefore, many of the project objectives focus on conferences, forum, databases and research that will allow these stakeholders to make well-educated decisions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification

Micro- and mild-hybridization (jointly labeled as M-HEV) is gaining popularity as a cost-effective technology for fuel economy improvement, but whether and how M-HEV may compete against less efficient conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), more efficient full hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is not well understood. As such, this study aims at evaluating the impact of the market adoption of M-HEV on the average fuel economy of the new vehicle fleet and on the sales share of PEVs. The study reviews recent sales trends and market forecasts, and uses published estimates of manufacturing cost and fuel economy of M-HEV with an existing discrete choice model (Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies or MA3T) to project the market penetration and impacts of M-HEV under different scenarios of M-HEV choice positions, designed to enhance conclusion robustness. It is found that among engine-based powertrain choices, micro-HEV appears to be the most cost-effective, followed by ICEVs, mild-HEV and finally full HEVs. M-HEV technologies are likely to improve fleetwide average fuel economy without significant adverse effects on sales of plug-in electric vehicles, and are likely to remain highly competitive outside PEVs through 2050.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Analyzing the Sensitivity of Hydrogen Vehicle Sales to Consumers' Preferences

The success of hydrogen vehicles will depend on consumer behavior as well as technology, energy prices and public policy. This study examines the sensitivity of the future market shares of hydrogen-powered vehicles to alternative assumptions about consumers preferences. The Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies model was used to project future market shares. The model has 1,458 market segments, differentiated by travel behavior, geography, and tolerance to risk, among other factors, and it estimates market shares for twenty advanced power-train technologies. The market potential of hydrogen vehicles is most sensitive to the improvement of drive train technology, especially cost reduction. The long-run market success of hydrogen vehicles is less sensitive to the price elasticity of vehicle choice, how consumers evaluate future fuel costs, the importance of fuel availability and limited driving range. The importance of these factors will likely be greater in the early years following initial commercialization of hydrogen vehicles.

hydrogen vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2012

Vehicle Technologies Program Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) Report for Fiscal Year 2012

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has defined milestones for its Vehicle Technologies Program (VTP). This report provides estimates of the benefits that would accrue from achieving these milestones relative to a base case that represents a future in which there is no VTP-supported vehicle technology development. Improvements in the fuel economy and reductions in the cost of light- and heavy-duty vehicles were estimated by using Argonne National Laboratory's Autonomie powertrain simulation software and doing some additional analysis. Argonne also estimated the fraction of the fuel economy improvements that were attributable to VTP-supported development in four "subsystem" technology areas: batteries and electric drives, advanced combustion engines, fuels and lubricants, and materials (i.e., reducing vehicle mass, called "lightweighting"). Oak Ridge National Laboratory's MA 3 T (Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies) tool was used to project the market penetration of light-duty vehicles, and TA Engineering's TRUCK tool was used to project the penetrations of medium- and heavy-duty trucks. Argonne's VISION transportation energy accounting model was used to estimate total fuel savings, reductions in primary energy consumption, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that would result from achieving VTP milestones. These projections indicate that by 2030, the on-road fuel economy of both light- and heavy-duty vehicles would improve by more than 20%, and that this positive impact would be accompanied by a reduction in oil consumption of nearly 2 million barrels per day and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of more than 300 million metric tons of CO 2 equivalent per year. These benefits would have a significant economic value in the U.S. transportation sector and reduce its dependency on oil and its vulnerability to oil price shocks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Refueling infrastructure planning in intercity networks considering route choice and travel time delay for mixed fleet of electric and conventional vehicles

The range anxiety has been a major factor that affects the market acceptance of electric vehicles. Even with the recent development of battery technologies, a lack of charging stations and range anxiety are still significant concerns, specifically for intercity trips. This calls for more investments in building charging stations and advancing battery technologies to increase the market share of electric vehicles and improve sustainability. This study suggests a configuration for plug-in electric vehicle charging infrastructure to support long-distance intercity trips of electric vehicles at the network level. A model is proposed to minimize the total system cost including infrastructure investment (building charging stations/spots) and travel time delays (charging time, waiting time in the queue, and detour time to access charging stations). This study fills existing gaps in the literature by capturing realistic patterns of travel demand and considering flow-dependent charging delays at charging stations. Furthermore, the proposed model, which is formulated as a mixed-integer program with nonlinear constraints, solves the optimization problem at the network level. At the network level, impacts of charging station locations on the traffic assignment problem with a mixed fleet of electric and conventional vehicles need to be considered. To this end, a traffic assignment module is integrated with a simulated annealing algorithm. The numerical experiments show a satisfactory application of the model for a full-scale case study (intercity network in Michigan). The solution quality and efficiency of the proposed solution algorithm are evaluated against those of an enumeration approach for a small case study. The results suggest that even for the current market share and charging stations’ setting, a significant investment is needed to support intercity trips without range anxiety issues and with acceptable delays. Additionally, through sensitivity analyses, the required infrastructure and battery investments to support intercity trips with acceptable delays are established for hypothetical increased market shares and battery size in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of the consumer heterogeneity in fuel economy valuation on compliance with fuel economy standards

This study quantified the significance of assuming heterogeneity in consumer valuation of fuel economy on the estimated compliance with fuel economy standards, with two approaches. One is mathematical derivation on how the heterogeneity affects the estimated market acceptance of high-efficiency vehicles. The other is a consumer choice based simulation method to analyze the heterogeneity impacts on the compliance with the fuel economy standards for the entire light duty vehicle fleet in the United States. Our findings suggest that the direction of the impact of heterogeneity assumption depends on market positions of high-efficiency vehicles: (1) with the “Likely-Accept” condition, where high-efficiency vehicles sell well and higher achieved fuel economy is expected, the heterogeneity assumption can add additional risks to the compliance; and (2) with the “Likely-Reject” condition where the fuel economy standards may have difficulty in compliance, the heterogeneity can reduce the risks and improve the compliance outcome. It is concluded that consideration of fuel economy valuation heterogeneity is important in fuel economy standard analysis. In conclusion, it is hoped that such consideration may provide a framework to reconcile the different views on consumer valuation of fuel economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Timing Is everything: quantifying regulatory and market readiness levels for technology transition policy analysis

People save for retirement throughout their career because it is virtually impossible to save all you’ll need in retirement the year before you retire. Similarly, without installing incremental amounts of clean fossil, renewable or transformative energy technologies throughout the coming decades, a radical and immediate change will be near impossible the year before a policy goal is set to be in place. This notion of steady installation growth over acute installations of technology to meet policy goals is the core topic of discussion for this research. This research operationalizes this notion by developing the theoretical underpinnings of regulatory and market acceptance delays by building upon the common Technology Readiness Level (TRL) framework and offers two new additions to the research community. The new and novel Regulatory Readiness Level (RRL) and Market Readiness Level (MRL) frameworks were developed. These components, collectively called the Technology, Regulatory and Market (TRM) readiness level framework allow one to build new constraints into existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to address research questions such as, ‘To meet our desired technical and policy goals, what are the factors that affect the rate we must install technology to achieve these goals in the coming decades?’

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Comparative Techno-Economic Analysis of Renewable Methanol Synthesis Pathways from Biomass and CO2: Preprint

Global demand for methanol as both a chemical precursor and a fuel additive is rising. At the same time, numerous sustainable methanol production pathways are under development which, if commercialized, could present significant environmental benefits over traditional methanol synthesis pathways. There is a need to harmonize the analyses of sustainable pathways using a consistent techno-economic approach to evaluate the potential for commercialization of various pathways. This analysis considers economic and environmental factors critical to market acceptance of three sustainable pathways versus a commercial baseline. We suggest that biomass gasification to methanol represents a near-term viable pathway with high technology readiness level and commercially competitive market price. However, long-term solutions should consider CO2 electrolysis pathways which offer further improvements in sustainability metrics to support global decarbonization efforts.

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2016

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market share variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparative techno-economic analysis of renewable methanol synthesis from biomass and CO 2 : Opportunities and barriers to commercialization

Global demand for methanol as both a chemical precursor and a fuel additive is rising. At the same time, numerous renewable methanol production pathways are under development, which, if commercialized, could provide significant environmental benefits over traditional methanol synthesis pathways. However, it is difficult to compare technologies at different maturity levels, with differing feedstocks, and with significant differences in overall process design. Thus, there is a need to harmonize the analyses of renewable pathways using a consistent techno-economic approach to evaluate the potential for commercialization of various pathways. This analysis uses a novel cross-comparison method to assess near-term and long-term viability of both low- and high-maturity level technologies. Furthermore, the techno-economic assessment considers cost factors critical to market acceptance combined with carbon- and energy-efficiency assessments of three renewable pathways compared with a commercial baseline. We find that biomass gasification to methanol represents a near-term viable pathway with a high technology readiness level and commercially competitive market price. If cost-reducing technological improvements can be realized and scaled up in the CO 2 electrolysis pathways, the potential for higher carbon efficiencies may help drive market adoption of these more modular, direct conversion pathways in future markets as they present an opportunity to better support global decarbonization efforts through efficient waste carbon utilization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗