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Forest Cover Associated with Improved Child Health and Nutrition: Evidence from the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey and Satellite Data

Healthy forests provide human communities with a host of important ecosystem services, including the provision of food, clean water, fuel, and natural medicines. Yet globally, about 13 million hectares of forests are lost every year, with the biggest losses in Africa and South America. As biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation due to deforestation continue at unprecedented rates, with concomitant loss of ecosystem services, impacts on human health remain poorly understood. Here, we use data from the 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, linked with satellite remote sensing data on forest cover, to explore and better understand this relationship. Our analysis finds that forest cover is associated with improved health and nutrition outcomes among children in Malawi. Children living in areas with net forest cover loss between 2000 and 2010 were 19% less likely to have a diverse diet and 29% less likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods than children living in areas with no net change in forest cover. Conversely, children living in communities with higher percentages of forest cover were more likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods and less likely to experience diarrhea. Net gain in forest cover over the 10-year period was associated with a 34% decrease in the odds of children experiencing diarrhea (P5.002). Given that our analysis relied on observational data and that there were potential unknown factors for which we could not account, these preliminary findings demonstrate only associations, not causal relationships, between forest cover and child health and nutrition outcomes. However, the findings raise concerns about the potential short- and long-term impacts of ongoing deforestation and ecosystem degradation on community health in Malawi, and they suggest that preventing forest loss and maintaining the ecosystems services of forests are important factors in improving human health and nutrition outcomes.

malawi

New mineralogical and chemical data on the Machinga (L6) chondrite, Malawi

The Machinga, southern Malawi, Africa, L6 chondrite (observed fall, January 22, 1981) contains accessory phases of metal, troilite, chromite, and native Cu (which is associated with limonite and found in zones of aqueous alteration). Rare accessory phases are apatite and pentlandite, which are uncommon in L6 chondrites. Major mineral constituents (olivine, orthopyroxene, and plagioclase) indicate shock effects at a level of about 15-20 GPa shock pressure. The meteorite is thus classified to be of L6d type. Melt pockets of widely variable composition are abundant.

Koeberl, Christian

Tectonic controls on rift basin morphology: Evolution of the northern Malawi (Nyasa) rift

Radiometric (K-Ar and Ar-40/Ar-39) age determinations of volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks, combined with structural, gravity, and seismic reflection data, are used to constrain the age of sedimentary strata contained within the seismically and volcanically active northern Malawi (Nyasa) rift and to characterize changes in basin and flank morphologies with time. Faulting and volcanism within the Tukuyu-Karonga basin began at approximately 8.6 Ma, when sediments were deposited in abroad, initially asymmetric lake basin bounded on its northeastern side by a border fault system with minor topographic relief. Extensions, primarily by a slip along the border fault, and subsequent regional isostatic compensation led to the development of a 5-km-deep basin bounded by broad uplifted flanks. Along the low-relief basin margin opposite border fault, younger stratigraphic sequences commonly onlap older wedge-shaped sequences, although their internal geometry is often progradational. Intrabasinal faulting, flankuplift, and basaltic and felsic volcanism from centers at the northern end of the basin became more important at about 2.5 Ma when cross-rift transfer faults developed to link the Tukuyu-Karonga basin to the Rukwa basin. Local uplift and volcanic construction at the northern end of the basin led to a southeastward shift in the basin's depocenter. Sequence boundaries are commonly erosional along this low-relief (hanging wall) margin and conformable in the deep lake basin. The geometry of stratigraphic sequences and the distribution of the erosion indicate that horizontal and vertical crustal movements both across and along the length of the rift basin led to changes in levels of the lake, irrespective of paleoclimatic fluctuations.

Ebinger, C. J.

Operational maize yield forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa using Earth observation data and machine learning

Food insecurity continues to grow in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In 2019, chronically malnourished people numbered nearly 240 million, or 20% of the population in SSA. Globally, numerous efforts have been made to anticipate potential droughts, crop conditions, and food shortages to foster improved food insecurity early warning and risk management. To support this goal, we develop an Earth Observation (EO) and machine-learning-based operational, subnational maize yield forecast system and evaluate its out-of-sample forecast skills during the growing seasons for Kenya, Somalia, Malawi, and Burkina Faso. In general, forecast skills improve substantially during the vegetative growth period (VP) and gradually during the reproductive development period (RP). Thus, mid-season assessment can provide effective early warning months before harvest. Skillful forecasts (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) > 0.6 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) < 20%) appear approximately two dekads after the VP; for example, they appear in May in Kenya and Somalia, January in Malawi, and July in Burkina Faso.

Donghoon Lee

NASA's Earth Observations Program: Past, Present and Future

A presentation will be given at the Annual National Awards and President's Invited Lecture. The event is sponsored by the Associated Scientific and Technical Societies, an organization which serves the interests of 40,000 scientists and engineers all over South Africa. A general presentation will be given on the topic of NASA's Earth Observation Program and will be supplemented with visualizations using the NASA/NOAA Earth Science Electronic theater. Included will be space observations with an eye on southern Africa, including Etosha National Park, Namibia, Okavanga Delta, Botswana, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, and Cape Town, the Highveld around Johannesburg, Blyde River Canyon, and the Lowveld of Kruger National Park in South Africa; also included will be some AVHRR imagery of fire occurrence during the dry season, mostly the Miombo woodland of Zambia, Angola, Malawi, and northern Mozambique, supplemented with SeaWiFS imagery for VI, aerosols, clouds, AVHRR fire time series, Landsat TM (and possibly ETM+, if available), and other global data sets. Would also like to include some Terra animations from SVS, including perhaps the launch sequence. The presentation would conclude with some of the ER-2 MAS imagery from Brazil that highlights the capability that we plan to bring to Africa in August 2000.

King, Michael D.

NASA's Earth Observation Program: Past, Present and Future

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. In this electronic theater presentation I will illustrate how scientists can learn about the Earth's atmosphere, land, oceans, and cryosphere from the vantage point of space-based global observations. This presentation will emphasize, but will not be limited to, Earth observations from space that highlight the ecosystem and environment of southern Africa, including: (i) dynamic geosynchronous satellite observations of southern Africa and nearby Indian Ocean, (ii) vegetation dynamics (normalized difference vegetation index and leaf area index), (iii) sea surface temperature, ocean topography, and surface winds over the Benguela and Agulhas Currents, (iv) Landsat 7 imagery of Cape Town, Etosha Pan, and other regions of southern Africa (v) fire distribution and dynamics in the Miombo woodland of Zambia, Angola, and Malawi, (vi) aerosol and cloud properties in southern Africa, and (vii) ice sheet distribution in and around Antarctica. We will illustrate these and other topics with a dynamic theater-style presentation, along with animations of satellite launch deployments and orbital mapping to highlight aspects of Earth observations from space.

King, Michael D.

Investigating the Strength and Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation Teleconnections to Hydroclimate and Maize Yields in Southern and East Africa

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical for seasonal climate forecasts, but recent events diverged substantially from expectations in many regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa where seasonal forecasts are critical tools for addressing food security. Here, we evaluate 39 years (1982–2020) of data on hydroclimate, leaf area index, and maize yields to investigate the strength of ENSO teleconnections in southern and East Africa. Teleconnections to precipitation, soil moisture, and leaf area index are generally stronger during ENSO phases that cause drought conditions (El Niño in southern Africa and La Niña in East Africa), with seasonality that aligns well with the maize growing seasons. Within maize growing areas, however, ENSO teleconnections to hydroclimate and vegetation are generally weaker compared to the broader geographic regions, especially in East Africa. There is also little evidence that the magnitude of the ENSO event affects the hydroclimate or vegetation response in these maize regions. Maize yields in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe all correlate significantly with hydroclimate and leaf area index, with South Africa and Zimbabwe showing the strongest and most consistent yield responses to ENSO events. Our results highlight the chain of causality from El Niño and La Niña forcing of regional anomalies in hydroclimate to vegetation health and maize yields in southern and East Africa. The large spread across individual ENSO events, however, underscores the limitations of this climate mode for seasonal climate prediction in the region, and the importance of finding additional sources of skill for improving climate and yield forecasts.

El Niño Southern Oscillation