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Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models

Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.

42 - ENGINEERING

High-Fidelity Multiphysics Assessment of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) Integrating Neutronics, Thermal-hydraulics and Thermochemistry

This work presents a MOOSE-based Multiphysics model of the LOTUS MSR reactor system. The model includes the coarse-mesh turbulent thermal-hydraulics including passive advection of delayed neutron precursors of the primary system through Pronghorn, the power density and neutronics calculation employing Griffin, and the chemical interactions through Gibbs energy minimization and redox potential with Thermochimica. Incorporating a plate-out model, the full multi-physics model is used to evaluate the effects of deposition and removal of solid compounds formed in the molten salt in the reactor surfaces, evaluating the concentrations and regions in which nickel, chromium and iron would be deposited. Results indicate an almost isothermal state of the fuel during operation at 25 kW that do not increase the plate-out effects due to low temperature gradients.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Validation Testing for Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment Equipment Removal and Disposal Techniques

The Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) will be the first reactor featuring a fast-spectrum molten chloride circulating nuclear fuel system in the world. Planning for equipment removal and disposal (ERD) of MCRE has identified several technology gaps due to the unique environment of this nuclear experiment. Some of the gaps arise from the application of existing disassembly and/or sizing methods to novel material forms or in novel configurations. Others arise from unknown material behavior. This paper summarizes proposed test plans for ERD validation experiments to address these complicated or unknown equipment removal procedures. At the Waste Management Symposia in 2024, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) MCRE ERD team presented the challenges associated with hosting multiple nuclear experiments in series with only brief transition periods between systems. Such difficulties include higher dose rates, the presence of radioisotopes infrequently encountered in reactor decommissioning and radioactive waste management, lack of intrinsic remote-operations infrastructure in the test bed, space constraints in the test bed, and contamination minimization requirements. To address these challenges, remote or semi-remote technologies are planned to be implemented in a non-hot cell environment with limited space availability. The team also discussed how a systems engineering approach is being used for conceptual development and design of equipment removal systems to address these challenges. For example, to reduce constraints for the removal of more difficult components, non-activated, noncontaminated elements are planned to be taken out first where possible. Still, there are complexities associated with the remaining components. In this work, the operational framework for MCRE ERD was reviewed for technical gaps and open questions, and test plans were drafted to address these areas. The tests plans were written for the following categories: vision systems, pipe cutting, drill/grout/filler, flush salt, and miscellaneous, with the miscellaneous group consisting of tests like techniques for removing bearings and reflector bricks. The test plans explore material, infrastructure, and staffing requirements needed for test execution. The test plans additionally focus on the evaluation of success. Determining the outcome of a test is imperative - as these explorative actions have the potential to rearrange or re-scope planned ERD activities. Success criteria identified thus far include required tool output, required area(s), debris production and mitigation, and repeatability. Test plans are an essential aspect of the systems engineering approach to MCRE ERD. They are used as the beginning steps in defining use cases for the ERD system. Performance of the validation tests is expected to begin in the summer of 2025 and will take approximately 9 to 12 months to complete. Execution of these plans will be expedited by specifying test needs ahead of time, facilitating efficient interactions with any subcontractors tasked with running the requested tests. Evaluating the outcomes of these tests will inform MCRE ERD procedures and timing and will also identify additional technical constraints for the MCRE ERD System. This upfront process optimization effort will help the project save time and resources at the end of the experiment.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Fuel Salt Synthesis for the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment: Scale-up, Operations, and Production Update

Over the previous 5 years, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been working with Southern Co. and TerraPower on the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) funded Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) project. As part of this effort, INL has developed a fuel synthesis process to produce the NaCl-UCl3 fuel salt that MCRE will need for operation. Dr. Phillips will present on process development and scale-up testing and results, as well as provide an update on the current status of fuel production for MCRE. To date, the fuel synthesis process has been demonstrated at full scale using depleted uranium, and the equipment necessary for production of the fuel for MCRE has been installed in the Fuel Manufacturing Facility (FMF) at the INL’s Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC). The NaCl-UCl3 produced to-date has been shown to be of 99.99% purity or greater, and be within tolerance for all relevant parameters. Overall process efficiency in terms of uranium utilization has been demonstrated to be above 90%. The synthesis operation has also been shortened to allow for completion of the reaction within a single 10 hour working shift. Consequently, the process developed is expected to be capable of meeting all project objectives for efficiency, purity, scale, and scheduling. Production of NaCl-UCl3 fuel salt for MCRE is projected to begin during the Summer of 2025.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Design Optimization of a Criticality Experiment for the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment Facility

Neutronics simulations of Molten Chloride Fast Reactors have quantifiable biases that arise from nuclear data, modeling choices, or numerical methods. The multiphysics nature of molten salt reactors makes it challenging to disentangle neutronics modeling biases from biases originating from other physical phenomena. In comparison to a mock-up reactor, criticality experiments can specifically assess the neutronics modeling bias while limiting multiphysics effects. The criticality experiment must be neutronically representative of the full-scale reactor to be valuable. Here, in this paper, we describe the design of a criticality experiment to validate only the neutronics of TerraPower’s Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) and its criticality safety upset scenarios. The proposed experiment uses different chlorine-containing materials to maximize its similarity to the MCRE. The design process uses a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm to investigate different objective functions that use covariance information for 35 Cl nuclear data. The experiments could reduce the nuclear data–induced uncertainty in k eff of the MCRE from 2161 to 886 pcm. They would also increase the upper subcritical limit of the MCRE criticality safety upset scenario from 0.94101 to 0.94476 when using the WHISPER analysis framework.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Criticality Safety SU based USL Calculation for UCl3-NaCl Fuel Salt Operations

The Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) is a fast spectrum, molten salt fueled reactor that is planned to be constructed and operated in the Laboratory for Operation and Testing in the U.S. (LOTUS) testbed, formerly known as the ZPPR cell, at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). MCRE will provide valuable data to support design, licensing, and operation of full scale commercialized molten salt reactor designs.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Implementing Environmental Considerations to Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment Equipment Removal and Disposal Plan

The Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) will be the first operational advanced nuclear experiment to utilize molten chloride salt mixed with fissile material as both a fuel and coolant source. The MCRE experiment will investigate the instillation, operation, and removal of small fast molten salt reactors and will involve unique requirements for Equipment Removal and Disposal (ERD).

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Final Design for Additional Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) with Sodium Chloride Absorbers to Provide Validation Benchmarks for TerraPower

The first set of Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) with chlorine absorbers (TEX-Cl) were executed in Q4FY24 and are in the process of being benchmarked for the ICSBEP. TEX-Cl builds upon the TEX-HEU baseline cases that were published in the 2022 International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. TEX-HEU, like TEX-Pu, was designed to be modular to allow for the incorporation of various absorbers and reflectors to test nuclear data and application case needs. For example, TEX-HEU with hafnium (TEX-Hf) utilizes hafnium plates as both absorbers and reflectors, depending on the tested configuration. A second set of chlorine experiments, dubbed More TEX-Cl, are laid out in this report to meet the needs of TerraPower for chlorine validation for their Molten Chloride Fast Reactor (MCFR) systems. TerraPower’s Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) and MCFR are fast molten salt reactors that utilize sodium chloride (NaCl) salt eutectics as the fuel and coolant. The MCRE eutectic is a mixture of NaCl and uranium trichloride (UCl 3 ). An abundant need for chlorine absorption validation has been expressed by multiple members of the community, including Y-12 (whose needs were addressed with the first set of experiments), LANL (whose needs were addressed with the Chlorine Worth Study (CWS)), TerraPower, institute de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN), Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SNRS), and others. Of the members who have expressed interest in this validation, most are interested in the fast neutron energy region, where the 35 Cl(n,p) reaction is most prominent. New 35 Cl(n,p) differential cross section measurements performed by LANL at LANCSE show substantial changes to the cross sections (Figure 1) and may be validated through these experiments as some configurations are optimally sensitive to this cross section.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Synthesis Roadmap for Actinide Chloride Salts

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are among the main advanced nuclear reactor types at the forefront of development by industry, with the support of the US government, for the next fleet of nuclear reactors to support the demand for energy in the coming decades. MSRs are highly unique because they are cooled and typically also fueled by molten salt. This quality brings about safety benefits such as low-pressure operation and self-stabilization of the neutron flux, operational benefits such as high-temperature operation and the ability for online refueling, and fuel and waste management benefits thanks to the flexibility of post-processing of molten salts and reprocessing options that involve removal of fission products and actinide separation. In fact, domestic deployment of molten salt (or molten salt–cooled) reactors is an approaching reality: a handful of molten salt reactor developers are planning to operate demonstration-scale reactors, as a step toward commercial-scale power reactors, within the decade. For example, Natura Resources received a construction permit in September 2024 for the deployment of MSR-1, which is a graphite-moderated thermal spectrum reactor, at Abilene Christian University. Also, TerraPower, in a collaborative effort with Southern Company and Idaho National Laboratory (INL), received approval from DOE in 2023 to proceed with the construction of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), a homogeneous chloride fast reactor at INL, and has begun assembly of system components. There are several other examples of developers at different stages of development of their own unique MSR designs (Jenet et al., 2025). As developers are in the process of obtaining approvals for their designs, deploying demonstration-scale reactors, and planning for their commercial-scale power reactors, there is a critical supply chain need for the synthesis of fuel for these reactors that must be addressed. The challenge generally is three-fold: (1) the quantity of fueled salt needed for these reactors is extraordinarily high (>100s of kilograms), but demonstrations of scaled-up techniques for fueled salt synthesis are significantly more limited than demonstrations of lab-scale syntheses; (2) each developer has a unique reactor design, which means different actinide halide elements in different carrier salts must be synthesized; and (3) there is a need for particularly high-purity salt so as to ensure the long-term operability of these reactors with minimal degradation to salt-wetted components, which necessitates synthesis techniques with high levels of quality control, repeatability, and well-characterized precursor and reactant materials. It is crucial that this supply chain challenge be addressed by demonstrating synthesis techniques that are scalable, de-risked, and well-documented so that these technologies may be adopted and utilized by industry to support the fueling needs of MSRs that are to come online within the next 10 years. With this supply chain challenge clearly defined for the developing MSR industry, it is important to consider that addressing such a challenge is oftentimes complex and context-dependent. There is not necessarily a single synthesis technique that can be scaled up and adopted to address the needs of all MSR developers; the synthesis approach that may be viable for producing a desired fuel salt will be entirely dependent on the exact salt composition needed, the quantity needed, purity needed, the refueling and waste plans, and the availability of a carrier salt for the fuel. Therefore, it is important to consider more broadly what synthesis techniques are available and have been demonstrated to understand the benefits, challenges, and general nuances that should be considered when evaluating a particular route for efficient production of high-purity fuel salts at scale.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Activation of Thermal Insulation and Contamination Prevention

The goals of this paper are to enhance the understanding of the potential activation and contamination hazards from the use of insulating materials in the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment and to foster safer work environments through informed decision-making and strategic planning. It was written to resolve a gating comment from the core heating system preliminary design review. The largest dose expected from the considered insulation materials is about 0.1 mrem per year from Pyrogel. Although Cerablanket stood out among the insulation materials for encouraging ALARA practices, it has a higher thermal conductivity. At low power levels, focusing on reducing the generation of dust from ERD activities may be more effective for reducing the potential spread of contamination than changing the insulating material type. However, regardless of the material chosen, PPE and safety conscious procedural practices can help reduce the production and spread of activated dust––thus minimizing the radiological hazard to workers.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Coupled Neutronics - Thermal-Hydraulics - Thermomechanics modeling of Molten Chloride Reactor

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are innovative Generation-IV nuclear reactors known for their enhanced safety features, fuel economy, and fuel cycle advancements. However, designing and studying these reactors present unique safety and modeling challenges. The Department of Energy (DOE)'s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program addresses these challenges through the development of flexible multi-fidelity, multiphysics simulation tools. This study exemplifies NEAMS tools' capabilities by modeling a chloride-based micro-MSR: Griffin for neutronics simulations, Pronghorn for thermal-hydraulics simulations, and BISON for thermomechanics simulations. These tools are integrated into a comprehensive 3D multiphysics model, successfully capturing steady-state and transient reactor operations. A loss of flow accident is examined as an illustrative example of transient behavior. Additionally, this paper contributes to demonstrating the theoretical feasibility of micro-MSR concepts, which have received less attention compared to other designs. The subsequent sections provide a brief description of the MSR concept studied, an overview of the computational tools used, and present results for both steady-state operation and a loss of flow accident.

42 - ENGINEERING

Criticality Safety S/U based USL Calculation for UCl3-NaCl Fuel Salt Operations

Recent experimental data has shown inconsistencies with the 35Cl(n,p) cross-section. The cross-section uncertainty data does not account for the recent data. The 1s relative uncertainty is assumed to be 100% for the 35Cl(n,p) cross section over all energies above 0.017 MeV TerraPower and LANL have recently done cross-section measurements and developed new cross-sections for 35Cl.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS