What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models
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33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “MARKET DIFFUSION”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Review of dWindDS Model Initial Results; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
The dWindDS model analyses the market diffusion of distributed wind generation for behind the meter applications. It is consumer decision based and uses a variety of data sets including a high resolution wind data set. It projects market development through 2050 based on input on specified by the user. This presentation covers some initial runs with draft base case assumptions.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Diffusion into new markets: evolving customer segments in the solar photovoltaics market
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14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming
Summary Prospective environmental assessment of emerging technology is necessary in order to inform designers of beneficial changes early in a technology's development, and policy makers looking to fund projects and nudge manufacturers toward the most sustainable application of a technology. Existing analyses often have shortcomings such as failing to consider the environmental impacts in all stages of a product's life cycle; implicitly assuming that the emerging technology will be cost‐effective wherever it is technically viable; and assuming optimistic application scenarios that discontinue long‐established trends in human behavior. In this article, we propose a new approach, complementary to the prospective and anticipatory life cycle assessment literature, addressing the above concerns and attempting to make sense of the large uncertainties inherent in such analyses by using distributions to model all the inputs. The paper focuses on emerging manufacturing technologies, such as incremental sheet forming (ISF), but the issues examined are also applicable to new end‐use products, such as autonomous vehicles. This paper makes use of approaches (such as Bass modeling and product cannibalization considerations) familiar to those in the business community who anticipate market diffusion of a new technology and the effect on existing technology sales. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by estimating the potential environmental impacts in the U.S. car industry by 2030 of an emerging double‐sided ISF process. Energy and cost models of ISF and drawing are used to estimate potential mean savings of around 100 TJ primary and 60 million U.S. dollars per year by 2030.
Cooper, Daniel R.↗
FLOW BATTERY COST AND COMMERCIALIZATION TOOL (FlowBaCC) v.1.0
The Flow Battery Cost and Commercialization Tool (FlowBaCC) is a python-based framework used to project the costs and commercialization timelines for redox flow batteries. FlowBaCC combines learning curves for component costs and performance with adoption curves for market diffusion to project future system costs. The tool uses the bottom-up, spreadsheet-based Battery Performance and Cost Model for Flow Batteries (BatPaC-Flow) as the engine to translate learning curve inputs into full system costs. FlowBaCC provides capital costs and levelized costs of energy storage. The tool enables scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification (via grid and Monte Carlo methods).
Fu, Xiaoxu [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Arg↗
Diffusion into New Markets: Economic Returns Required by Households to Adopt Rooftop Photovoltaics
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
The enduring role of contracts for difference in risk management and market creation for renewables
Governments procure renewables through a variety of mechanisms. Contracts for difference (CfDs) have been used for more than 50% of the global offshore wind supply. The payments awarded through CfDs are sometimes labelled subsidies, suggesting that they support uneconomic activity. Here, in this study, we argue that the primary role of CfDs is rather risk management by creating a market for electricity supply at stable long-term prices. Similar to its use in other sectors of the economy, this contract type transforms a variable to a fixed price to reallocate volatility risks. Such long-term contracts are often necessary for renewables financing due to limited hedging options in existing markets. Our perspective could imply a shift in perception towards CfDs as a fundamental and lasting market feature. We hope to stimulate a timely discussion about the impact of greater CfD diffusion on electricity market mechanisms, risk allocation and the potential for combining fragmented streams of energy finance, market and policy research.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Distributed Wind Diffusion Model Overview (Presentation)
Distributed wind market demand is driven by current and future wind price and performance, along with several non-price market factors like financing terms, retail electricity rates and rate structures, future wind incentives, and others. We developed a new distributed wind technology diffusion model for the contiguous United States that combines hourly wind speed data at 200m resolution with high resolution electricity load data for various consumer segments (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial), electricity rates and rate structures for utility service territories, incentive data, and high resolution tree cover. The model first calculates the economics of distributed wind at high spatial resolution for each market segment, and then uses a Bass diffusion framework to estimate the evolution of market demand over time. The model provides a fundamental new tool for characterizing how distributed wind market potential could be impacted by a range of future conditions, such as electricity price escalations, improvements in wind generator performance and installed cost, and new financing structures. This paper describes model methodology and presents sample results for distributed wind market potential in the contiguous U.S. through 2050.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Understanding the Evolution of Customer Motivations and Adoption Barriers in Residential Solar Markets: Survey Data
This research focused on accelerating solar photovoltaic (PV) diffusion by collecting new market data and developing predictive modeling frameworks to test and refine understandings of household level motivations for adopting solar. Three different household-level surveys were fielded: one for households who had installed PV on their current home or had signed a contract to do so (the Adopter survey), one for households that had seriously considered PV but had not installed it (the Considerer survey), and one for the general population who did not have PV on their current home (the general population survey or GPS). Survey respondents were from four U.S. states: New Jersey, New York, Arizona, and California. Details of recruiting and sampling are documented below. Research projects on residential PV adoption often collect data only from PV adopters or from the general population. One of the innovations of this project was the three-pronged household survey data collection. By collecting similar data from three fairly different "statuses" with respect to adoption, the surveys provide a basis for understanding how those who do not have rooftop PV differ from those who have, for how and why people do (or don't) transition from not having to having rooftop PV on their home, and for understanding the characteristics and viewpoints of households who have scarcely, or not at all, entered the "PV consideration" track. All three surveys covered single-family owner-occupied households in each of the four target states used in the project -- Arizona, California, New Jersey, and New York - allowing a comparative approach to understanding how the factors that affect PV adoption vary by geography and policy conditions. The General Population and Considerer surveys provide a basis for understanding opinions about and interest in solar, and how these relate to household demographics and other conditions. Paired with the Adopter survey, they also provide data for understanding how those who do not have rooftop PV differ from those who have, and for how and why people do (or don't) transition from not having to having rooftop PV on their home. The Adopter survey questions were designed to capture a broad range of information on what motivates and impedes households to install rooftop PV, as well as the details and timing of the decision and installation. Survey instrument development drew from existing PV adoption survey instruments, PV adoption literature, and research team experience, as well as from past work on household interest in energy efficiency, environmental attitudes, purchasing tendencies, and related knowledge. Early interviews and discussions with installers and others in the PV industry were also taken into consideration.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
International Standards as Critical Enablers to Development and Diffusion of D and D Technologies - 19372
The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE EM) has taken a leading role in investing in the research and development (R and D) of critical technologies to support the safe and efficient decommissioning of legacy nuclear facilities. In order to facilitate the complex-wide deployment and adoption of those technologies from the laboratory to end users, and to maximize return on investment of government-sponsored R and D projects, DOE EM proactively solicits and evaluates initiatives intended to enhance achievement of these goals. One such case study emerged and involved the successful deployment of an intumescent fixative technology in support of the SRS 235-F PuFF Facility Risk Reduction Program. A detailed analysis confirmed that a critical enabler and key contributor to this effort was a deliberate, methodical approach to leverage an international, consensus-based standards organization from the onset. There is a substantial body of literature that supports the crucial role of standards in technology programs across all phases of development - from concept, to deployment, to large-scale diffusion - in other industries. Formal standards are the result of a consensual negotiation process carried out by producers, regulators, end users and other interested stakeholders in a voluntary process within standardization organizations (WTO, 2011). Therefore, standard setting is often viewed as a self-regulatory process (Gupta and Lad, 1983), and can often yield better acceptance of technologies in certain industries, particularly if those standards are further referenced in government directives and regulations. This analysis connects several theoretical concepts: information asymmetry, risk adverse markets, and technology diffusion. It is complimented by some initial, rudimentary survey results in a burgeoning academic study conducted by the author, and reinforced by the aforementioned case study on the deployment of a fixative technology at the SRS 235-F PuFF Facility. The importance of managing a holistic technology development program that focuses on not just the technical aspects of the technology itself, but the critical enablers as well, is emphasized. This effort has direct application to potentially enhancing DOE EM technology development programs across the complex. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Stochastic Price Generation for Evaluating Wholesale Electricity Market Bidding Strategies
This work presents a novel method for generating electricity price scenarios from statistical properties of past electricity prices using a hybrid statistical and reduced-form stochastic model. Previous work in applying stochastic differential equations (SDE) to model electricity prices has focused on daily average prices. To extend stochastic price generation methods to hourly or sub-hourly pricing, we address several weaknesses in the state-of-the-art: (1) we replace the mean-reversion component of the SDE with an ARIMA process that is better able to characterize the daily and weekly trends; (2) we extend the price-spike, or jump process to account for conditional probabilities of price spikes occurring in consecutive time steps by replacing the traditional Poisson process for modeling jumps with a generalized point process model inspired by brain neuron models; and (3) we replace the traditional method of estimating spike intensity with empirical variance with a Markov process based on observed price spike intensity transitions. The method is demonstrated with electricity prices from the US ERCOT market and a use-case example is provided for bidding an energy storage unit into the day-ahead and real-time energy markets of ERCOT using stochastic optimization methods. Results show that the the synthetic price model out performs a (naive) persistence forecast model by resulting in 24% to 47% more in profits over 168 simulated days.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
A Drop in the Bucket or a Pebble in a Pond: Commercial Building Partners’ Replication of EEMs Across Their Portfolios
This study presents findings from questionnaire and interview data investigating replication efforts of Commercial Building Partnership (CBP) partners that worked directly with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL partnered with 12 organizations on new and retrofit construction projects as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) CBP program. PNNL and other national laboratories collaborate with industry leaders that own large portfolios of buildings to develop high performance projects for new construction and renovation. This project accelerates market adoption of commercially available energy saving technologies into the design process for new and upgraded commercial buildings. The labs provide assistance to the partners’ design teams and make a business case for energy investments. From the owner’s perspective, a sound investment results in energy savings based on corporate objectives and design. Through a feedback questionnaire, along with personal interviews, PNNL gathered qualitative and quantitative information relating to replication efforts by each organization. Data through this process were analyzed to provide insight into two primary research areas: 1) CBP partners’ replication efforts of technologies and approaches used in the CBP project to the rest of the organization’s building portfolio (including replication verification), and, 2) the market potential for technology diffusion into the total U.S. commercial building stock, as a direct result of the CBP entire program.
Commercial Building Partnerships↗
Understanding Hydrogen Passivation Mechanism in Poly-Si Passivating Contacts: Insights from Effusion Studies
Silicon PV is the dominant PV technology, and captures >95% world market share, supporting -100 GW/year. Diffused and passivated pn junctions along with other rear side passivation technologies are the mainstream technologies and will continue to remain so in the coming decades. Passivated contacts, using tunnel oxide passivation stacks at the rear side, will gain market share from about 10% in 2022 up to 58% within the next 10 years. Most mature approaches use passivating layers of hydrogenated Al2O3 and SiNx. LPCVD SiNx provides less hydrogen for passivation compared to PECVD SiNx but can retain the hydrogen up to higher temperatures which is beneficial for firing. Although SiNx provides large amount of hydrogen, this doesn't necessarily translate to good passivation. AlOx:H contributes to retaining H at higher temperatures. Water molecules are also detected during H-effusion and may play a role in passivation of the oxide/wafer interface.
effusion study↗
Information Searching in the Residential Solar PV Market
This paper examines the consumer information search behavior of households in San Diego County with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. We focus on whether solar PV households financing the technology through third-party ownership (TPO) versus host-ownership (HO), which is equivalent to leasing or buying goods in other markets, have heterogeneous preferences as reflected by information search. Conditional on adoption, we find that TPO households tend to seek more information on home modifications required for solar installation whereas HO households seek more information on the financial returns of solar investments. These preferences may be correlated with the consumption of other goods and services, and thus, if used to inform marketing strategies, our results could help reduce solar PV customer acquisition costs and accelerate technology diffusion. They also have indirect implications for marketing goods and services in other contexts where consumers exhibit similar preferences.
California↗
A study of some economic factors relating to the development and implementation of a satellite power system
Areas are examined relating to the design, development and implementation of a satellite power system (SPS): an analysis of the effect of energy R&D programs in general and SPS in particular on optimal fossil fuel consumption patterns, a study of alternative uses of SPS technologies, and a study of the electric power market penetration potential for SPS. It is shown that a credible program of R&D on long-range energy alternatives leads to lower optimal prices for fossil fuels, resulting in large short-term benefits accruing to the specific program elements. Several alternative uses of SPS technologies were identified; however the markets for these technologies are generally quite diffuse and difficult to assess. The notable exception is solar array technology which has, potentially, a very large non-SPS market. It is shown that the market for SPS units derives from two components of demand: the demand created by growth in the electrical energy demand which leads to an increased demand for baseload generating capacity, and a demand created by the need to replace retiring capacity.
Source record↗
Solar plants, environmental degradation and local socioeconomic contexts: A case study in a Mediterranean country
Photovoltaic plants developed on rural land are becoming a common infrastructure in the Mediterranean region and may contribute, at least indirectly, to various forms of environmental degradation including landscape deterioration, land take, soil degradation and loss in traditional cropland and biodiversity. Our study illustrates a procedure estimating (i) the extension of ground-mounted photovoltaic fields at the municipal scale in Italy and (ii) inferring the socioeconomic profile of the Italian municipalities experiencing different expansion rates of ground-mounted photovoltaic fields over the last years (2007-2014). The procedure was based on diachronic information derived from official data sources integrated into a geographical decision support system. Our results indicate that the surface area of ground-mounted photovoltaic fields into rural land grew continuously in Italy between 2007 and 2014 with positive and increasing growth rates observed during 2007-2011 and positive but slightly decreasing growth rates over 2012-2014, as a result of market saturation and policies containing the diffusion of solar plants on greenfields. We found important differences in the density of ground-mounted solar plants between northern and southern Italian municipalities. We identified accessible rural municipalities in southern Italy with intermediate population density and large availability of non-urban land as the most exposed to the diffusion of solar plants on greenfields in the last decade. Our approach is a promising tool to estimate changes in the use of land driven by the expansion of photovoltaic fields into rural land.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Wafer integrated micro‐scale concentrating photovoltaics
Abstract A novel micro‐scale photovoltaic concept, Wafer Integrated Micro‐scale Photovoltaics (WPV), is proposed, analyzed, and experimentally demonstrated. The WPV concept seamlessly integrates multijunction micro‐cells with a multi‐functional silicon platform that simultaneously provides optical concentration, hybrid PV/CPV architecture, and mechanical alignment features. Fabrication and optical performance characterization of the Si platform are described in this paper. Over 100% improvement in the concentration‐acceptance‐angle product ( CAP ) is demonstrated using the wafer‐embedded micro‐concentrating elements, leading to significantly reduced module material and fabrication costs, sufficient angular tolerance for low‐cost trackers, and an ultra‐compact optical architecture compatible with commercial flat panel infrastructures. The development of a prototypical module with a 400× concentration ratio is described. Outdoor optical characterization of the module shows acceptance angles of ±1.7° and ±2.5° for 90% of on‐axis power and full‐width‐half‐maximum, respectively. The projected performance of the PV/CPV hybrid architecture illustrates its potential for cost‐effective collection of both direct and diffuse sunlight, thereby extending the geographic and market domains for cost‐effective PV system deployment. Leveraging low‐cost micro‐fabrication and high‐level integration techniques, the WPV approach presents a promising route to combine the high performance of multijunction solar cells and the low costs of flat‐plate Si PV systems.
Li, Duanhui↗
Towards extreme fast charging of 4.6V LiCoO 2 via mitigating high-voltage kinetic hindrance
High-voltage LiCoO 2 (LCO) is an attractive cathode for ultra-high energy density lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in the 3C markets. However, the sluggish lithium-ion diffusion at high voltage significantly hampers its rate capability. Herein, combining experiments with density functional theory (DFT) calculations, we demonstrate that the kinetic limitations can be mitigated by a facial Mg 2+ +Gd 3+ co-doping method. The as-prepared LCO shows significantly enhanced Li-ion diffusion mobility at high voltage, making more homogenous Li-ion de/intercalation at a high-rate charge/discharge process. The homogeneity enables the structural stability of LCO at a high-rate current density, inhibiting stress accumulation and irreversible phase transition. When used in combination with a Li metal anode, the doped LCO shows an extreme fast charging (XFC) capability, with a superior high capacity of 193.1 mAhg -1 even at the current density of 20C and high-rate capacity retention of 91.3% after 100 cycles at 5C. In conclusion, this work provides a new insight to prepare XFC high-voltage LCO cathode materials.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗