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Alternatives to MARVEL Power Conversion – Comparison of Stirling Engine Thermal Efficiency and Design to other Power Conversion Cycles

The Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) Reactor is a small liquid-metal thermal reactor that will be built at the Idaho National Laboratory to demonstrate design and operating processes for microreactors, microgrid integration, and process heat applications. Power conversion in the MARVEL design is provided by Stirling engines, which have disadvantages in nuclear environments. Compared to Stirling engine performance, some alternative power cycles can increase power production when coupled to a liquid-metal thermal reactor In this paper, the thermal efficiency of MARVEL’s power production with Stirling engines is compared to the thermal efficiency of power production with MARVEL and alternative power cycles. Those cycles include a superheated Rankine cycle, open and closed Brayton cycles, and a supercritical carbon dioxide cycle. All cycles (except the Stirling engines) were modeled with an intermediate helium loop to meet MARVEL’s principal design criteria. All models are simple designs with conservative assumptions for consistent comparison. Detailed optimization will depend largely on reactor location and application, and the relative merit of each cycle is discussed for different environmental conditions. The study informs significant early decisions on power cycle design and economic

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS

Alternatives to MARVEL Power Conversion -- Comparison of Stirling Engine Thermal Efficiency and Design to Other Power Conversion Cycles

PRESENTATION for CONFERENCE PAPER: The Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) Reactor is a small liquid-metal thermal reactor that will be built at the Idaho National Laboratory to demonstrate design and operating processes for microreactors, microgrid integration, and process heat applications. Power conversion in the MARVEL design is provided by Stirling engines, which have disadvantages in nuclear environments. Compared to Stirling engine performance, some alternative power cycles can increase power production when coupled to a liquid-metal thermal reactor. In this paper, the thermal efficiency of MARVEL’s power production with Stirling engines is compared to the thermal efficiency of power production with MARVEL and alternative power cycles. Those cycles include a superheated Rankine cycle, open and closed Brayton cycles, and a supercritical carbon dioxide cycle. All cycles (except the Stirling engines) were modeled with an intermediate helium loop to meet MARVEL’s principal design criteria. All models are simple designs with conservative assumptions for consistent comparison. Detailed optimization will depend largely on reactor location and application, and the relative merit of each cycle is discussed for different environmental conditions. The study informs significant early decisions on power cycle design and economics for deployment of advanced microreactors as they move from theory and concept to execution.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS

Open-source microreactor design models for technoeconomic assessments

Technoeconomic analyses for advanced nuclear technologies are essential for identifying cost drivers which allow for optimizing the technology to achieve better economic performance. Microreactors are emerging as a promising and reliable-energy solution, offering inherent safety, low capital investment, and rapid deployment capabilities. Past studies have conducted technoeconomic analyses for microreactors, but there remains a need for open-source technoeconomic models that can enhance collaboration, transparency, and consistency when performing this type of analysis. The present article introduces an open-source technoeconomic model for microreactors based on bottom-up cost estimation. Since no real cost data for microreactors exists, this model leverages cost data and insights gleaned from the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) project. It estimates the first-of-a-kind cost of two microreactor technologies and can also calculate the N th of a kind (NOAK) cost via accounting for learning and mass factory production. The two technologies considered in this paper are the liquid–metal thermal reactor (LTMR) and the gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR). In conclusion, the goal of this study is to demonstrate bottom-up cost estimation of these microreactor technologies and provide the cost estimation models that other users can leverage for various applications such as design optimization and financial planning.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

MICROREACTOR APPLICATIONS, RESEARCH, VALIDATION, AND EVALUATION (MARVEL) REACTOR ? STATUS, CONSTRUCTION, AND TESTING

The paper presents the current status of the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor design, qualification testing, fabrication, and high-level construction schedule. An overview of initial criticality, low power physics testing, and start-up testing is included, as well as an overview of the envisioned processes in which end-users can engage the project for access to operational data or specific demonstrations. Designed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy’s Microreactor Program for construction and operation at the INL, MARVEL is a small, fully functional advanced reactor with UZrH fuel and thermal output of 85 kW. It offers a unique opportunity for scaled demonstrations that can dramatically accelerate the design, licensing, and deployment of commercial microreactors for power production or process heat applications. MARVEL’s objective is to build a small liquid-metal thermal reactor at the INL to demonstrate design and operating processes for microreactors, microgrid integration, and process heat applications. MARVEL finished 90%-final-design in September 2023 and completed an independent project assessment in early 2024. Fabrication of long-lead components and fuel, safety analysis review, and procurement for construction are underway. MARVEL assembly and construction will start in 2025 and fuel loading is expected in mid- 2027. Initial criticality will be performed in a dry condition in late 2027, followed by loading of NaK coolant and start-up testing. Approximately six months later, release for unrestricted operations will enable subsequent testing of microreactor characteristics, microgrid integration and select heat extraction applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Technoeconomic Evaluation of Microreactor Using Detailed Bottom-up Estimate (Rev.1)

Microreactors are a novel class of nuclear reactors that are expected to be factory produced, transportable, and self-regulating. They are expected to be several orders of magnitude smaller in size than traditional reactors (with power outputs in the 1–20 MWe range typically). They are primarily envisaged to target niche, remote markets that are difficult to access and where energy costs are high. There has been a scarcity of technoeconomic assessment for these types of reactors due to the scarcity of designs without proprietary restraints (e.g., those that include balance of plants and building layouts) and cost estimates. The primary objective of this report was to develop a transparent, detailed, bottom-up cost estimate for a microreactor. While there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the projected costs, this work provides a foundation that can built upon and improved to better model the economics of microreactors. The Microreactor Applications Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor was selected for this analysis. This Department of Energy–sponsored demonstration was chosen because (1) its final design was recently completed and (2) a detailed class-3 cost-and-schedule estimation was conducted for it. This provided a strong technical basis for further analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Theory and User Manual for the Thermal Hydraulic Code SE2-ANL

A theory and user manual of thermal hydraulic code SE2-ANL was prepared in this work, to resolve the missing documentation. SE2-ANL, a special version of SUPERENERGY-2, is a multi-assembly steady-state Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR) core thermal hydraulic analysis code, and it was developed in the 1980s, but no complete documentation was ever made. This report describes the detailed methodology of the temperature calculation, inherited from (original) SUPERENERGY-2, and fuel and cladding temperature calculation capabilities as well as many other features which were incorporated in SE2-ANL. The input and output of SE2-ANL are also demonstrated in detail, using some simple models. The orificing zone capability as well as some other useful features of SE2-ANL are discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

SCM overview & the EBR-II shutdown heat removal tests validation.

Pronghorn is an engineering-scale, coarse-mesh, thermal-hydraulics tool for supporting reactor-core simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Most of the current efforts in Pronghorn have been devoted in developing porous finite-volume capabilities and adapting closure correlations for coarse-mesh thermal-hydraulics modeling. However, for liquid-metal reactors (LMRs) with wire-wrapped fuel pin assemblies, a pin-level thermal-hydraulic resolution is required for most safety case studies (pin rupture, channel blockage, etc.). For this purpose, a new Subchannel application is developed in MOOSE, which affords the required flow field resolution, while still preserving an engineering-scale approach. This new solver can be natively coupled to Pronghorn and other MOOSE objects to enable full-core, multi-physics, multi-scale engineering studies. This presentation presents the main features of the SCM code and demonstrates a validation case based on the EBR-II SHRT tests.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Enhancement of PyARC for Westinghouse Electric Company’s Lead Fast Reactor Design and Modeling (Final TCF Report)

Westinghouse Electric Company is a nuclear reactor vendor headquartered in the U.S. that is developing advanced reactor technology for the U.S. and global markets. Westinghouse has been relying on the neutronics Argonne Reactor Codes (ARC) executed through the NEAMS Workbench and its PyARC module that are developed under the DOE-NE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) and Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) – Fast Reactor programs. Through this user experience, Westinghouse identified several enhancements that would benefit the ARC codes’ usability by the US industry and therefore its commercialization potential. The enhancements were proposed to deliver both improvements in workflow and analysis capabilities to better support effective fast reactor core design and analysis to the nuclear industry. The PyARC workflow was extended in this project by integrating non-neutronic ARC codes DASSH and NUBOW-3D. The Ducted Assembly Steady-State Heat equation (DASSH) code is developed at ANL to perform steady-state thermal hydraulic sub-channel analysis in liquid metal fast reactor assemblies to determine optimized coolant flow and temperature distributions, which in this project was updated and validated for lead fast reactor (LFR) applications. The interface between REBUS and NUBOW-3D were improved in this project to assess the impact of the core restraint design and thermal induced expansion effects on the reactivity of the core, and to model the deformations of the fuel assemblies induced by temperature and irradiation. Finally, the ARC models that were extensively verified and validated through various SFR-based modeling benchmarks are extended in this project through code-to-code comparison on relevant LFR-specific neutronics benchmarks against Monte-Carlo neutronic solutions. Overall, this work enables verification of the capability of the ARC codes for a wide range of Generation-IV reactor designs. The outcome of this project is the release of a comprehensive modeling toolkit of validated, robust and efficient codes, as well as their user interface, that enables industry to perform a wide range of fast reactor analyses for design and licensing of their concepts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Demonstration and Verification of Thermo-Mechanical Bowing in a Limited Free-Bow SFR Concept Using MOOSE

Core bowing due to thermal gradients and irradiation induced swelling and creep introduces significant reactivity feedback effects in liquid metal-cooled fast spectrum reactors. During startup, normal operations, and transient events, differential thermal and flux gradients cause expansion, creep, and swelling, which results in bowing in preferential directions depending on local material properties and load-pad and restraint-ring design. The bowing phenomenon produces negative reactivity during accident conditions provided the restraint system has been properly designed to optimally guide the deformation outwards in the active core region. Under the Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, a Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based multiphysics approach to model core bowing is being developed. The present work expands on previous modeling of simpler International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification problems with these tools by modeling IAEA Verification Problem 4, which involves a symmetric sector of a reactor core with ducted assemblies undergoing differential thermal expansion due to thermal gradients bowing outward with duct-to-duct contact. This model is available on the National Reactor Innovation Center Virtual Test Bed repository. This example was verified against benchmark participant results, which includes bowing deformation evaluation and duct-to-duct interactions at load pads with mechanical contact.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

A code-to-code benchmark for magneto-convection in a horizontal duct

Liquid metals and magnetic fields are used in many technical applications such as metallurgy, crystal growth and nuclear fusion reactors. When an electrically conducting fluid moves in a magnetic environment, electric currents and electromagnetic forces are generated that affect velocity and pressure losses in the flow. These magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) interactions have to be investigated to optimize the engineering processes. The characteristics of MHD flows depend on the geometrical configuration, the strength of the applied magnetic field, the electrical properties of fluid and structural materials and the thermal conditions. In the so-called blankets for fusion reactors, where liquid metals are used to breed the plasma fuel component tritium and to extract the generated heat, magneto-convective flows play a crucial role in determining heat and mass transfer. Therefore, the availability of numerical codes to simulate this type of flow is mandatory and their validation is a necessary step to guarantee the reliability of the results. For that reason, a benchmark problem has been defined to simulate liquid metal flows in a horizontal rectangular duct heated from below and exposed to a non-uniform magnetic field. Results obtained by five research groups using different codes are compared.

benchmark

Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical Modeling and Simulation of Sodium-Potassium–Cooled MARVEL Microreactor Core

The U.S. Department of Energy's Microreactor Program, with Idaho National Laboratory's development of a nuclear microreactor applications test bed named MARVEL, aims to support R&D for the deployment of small, transportable reactors across civilian, industrial, and defense sectors. The MARVEL microreactor, an 85-kWth thermal fission reactor, incorporates TRIGA nuclear fuel and a sodium-potassium eutectic as its primary coolant, designed for safety and efficiency, with natural circulation eliminating the risk of critical heat flux conditions. The reliance on natural circulation for primary cooling means the reactor avoids using fuel spacers to minimize core pressure drop, which could disrupt the primary coolant's natural flow. However, the reactor core’s tight P/D ratio of 1.05, in the absence of fuel spacers, could pose a risk of fuel rod contact and increased peak cladding temperatures. To ensure the reactor safety, this study conducted computational modeling and simulations to investigate the reactor's thermal-hydraulic-mechanical characteristics, including the reactor core heat transfer coefficients, the potential for rod-to-rod contact, and assessed its impact on peak cladding temperature and overall reactor safety. The computational analyses of the MARVEL microreactor core revealed that the thermal deformation of fuel rods under worst-case scenario may lead to the fuel rod contact, but the peak cladding temperatures will remain significantly lower than the safety criteria, ensuring the safety operation reactor without fuel spacers under normal operating conditions.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Report on Initial Sodium Testing on the Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article (THETA) (Fiscal Year 2024 Final Report)

The Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article (THETA) is a facility that is used to develop sodium components and instrumentation as well as to acquire experimental data for validation of reactor thermal hydraulic and safety analysis codes. The facility simulates nominal thermal hydraulic conditions as well as protected/unprotected loss of flow accidents in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). High fidelity distributed temperature profiles of the developed flow field may be acquired with Rayleigh backscatter based optical fiber temperature sensors. The facility was designed in partnership with systems code experts to tailor the experiment to ensure the most relevant and highest quality data for code validation. THETA is comprised of a traditional primary coolant and secondary coolant system. The primary system is submerged in the pool of sodium and consists of a pump, electrically heated core, intermediate heat exchanger, and connected piping and thermal barriers (redan). The secondary system, located outside of the sodium pool, consists of a pump, sodium to air heat exchanger, and connected piping and valves. In fiscal year 2023, thermal stratification tests were completed with the primary system online, while the secondary system was being constructed [1]. These tests had shown that the core barrel and intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) outlet required increased thermal insulation. The THETA primary system was removed from METL, cleaned, thermal insulators installed, and then inserted into METL Test Vessel 4. At the time of this writing the THETA primary and secondary system are operational. During this fiscal year 100+ hours of testing was completed to characterize thermal hydraulic phenomena associated with steady state and transient conditions in a pool type liquid metal cooled reactor. A majority of the testing campaign was completed to satisfy the experimental data acquisition requirements for the GAIN Voucher with Oklo, CRADA 2021-21121. THETA is still operational at the time of this publication and future testing is planned for fiscal year 2025. Work is underway to publish existing and future data to an online database to facilitate collaboration with SFR engineers looking to validate their systems code or computational fluid dynamics models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

INL_intern_poster_RashedA

Advanced nuclear reactors often operate at elevated temperatures, novel fuel with different chemical and thermal properties that may interact differently with cladding, new coolants (e.g., molten salt, liquid metal, or sodium) that are chemically aggressive, requires cladding materials with superior oxidation, corrosion, and creep resistance. Developing fuel cladding for advanced reactors is essential, as the cladding plays a critical role in reactor safety, performance, and longevity. In this study, innovative Non-Concentrated Alloys (NCAs) were developed as novel fuel cladding materials for advanced nuclear reactors. Multiple elements were chosen for the alloys. NCAs were manufactured and tested mechanically, showing promise with the arc-melting method, and setting a clear path for the next step of NCAs' development as a fuel cladding for advanced nuclear reactors.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE

MOOSE-Based Fast Reactor Core Bowing Capabilities: Coupled Structural Mechanics – Thermal Fluids Demonstration and Related Verification Efforts

Under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program, an integrated multiphysics approach is being developed to model the core bowing phenomena important to liquid metal-cooled fast reactors. Core bowing is an important passive safety mechanism in liquid metal-cooled fast reactors and involves multiphysics effects including radiation transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical response to temperature and flux gradients. Verification and assessment efforts continued on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) capabilities relevant for modeling thermo-mechanical core bowing behavior. IAEA Verification Problem 4, which was started in FY23, was further examined with MOOSE capabilities to rectify discrepancies observed in previous years when compared to IAEA benchmark participant data. Meshing and postprocessing capabilities in MOOSE were also advanced by other teams and utilized this year. A thermal fluids-structural mechanical coupling demonstration has performed on 7-assemblyand 19-assembly fast reactor assembly configurations using MOOSE. Subchannel capabilities are used to calculate coolant temperature, and heat conduction capabilities calculate duct wall temperature as well as heat transfer through the inter-assembly gap. Structural mechanical capabilities then deform the mesh, accounting for contact between assemblies, according to the temperature gradients calculated by the thermal solvers. Power distributions are imposed rather than calculated to demonstrate different deformations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Large Eddy Simulation of Low-Reynolds-Number Turbulent Flow of Low-Prandtl-Number Fluid in a Tight Lattice Bundle for Assessment of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Turbulence Model

The MARVEL (Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation) microreactor utilizes natural circulation as core cooling mechanism and liquid metal as a primary coolant. Moreover, the reactor core has a pitch-to-diameter ratio of 1.056, which is considered a tight lattice configuration. Numerous studies have widely reported that Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models inaccurately predict heat transfer in liquid metals and fail to capture flow pulsations that can occur within tight lattices, leading to further inaccuracies in simulation results. Therefore, evaluating the accuracy of RANS turbulence models in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the MARVEL microreactor core is crucial for assessing reactor safety. In this study, a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of the MARVEL microreactor core subchannel was conducted and compared with a RANS simulation to evaluate the accuracies and conservatism of the RANS model. The flow pulsation in a tight lattice predicted by LES enhanced the heat transfer, whereas the RANS model underpredicted it. Consequently, the RANS model predicted the peak cladding temperature higher than the LES model, but the discrepancy between the two approaches was not significant due to the good thermal characteristics of the liquid metal. It can be concluded that the steady-state RANS model is effective for the thermal analysis of liquid-metal-cooled MARVEL microreactor core and can provide conservative predictions from a safety analysis perspective.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Performance Investigation of High-temperature Latent Heat Storage for Integration with Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with advanced nuclear reactors enhances the flexible use of nuclear energy, facilitating its expansion beyond conventional electricity generation. High-temperature TES, capable of storing heat above 400 degree C, emerges as a vital carbon-free energy solution for decarbonizing industrial sector, especially when combined with low-emission energy sources like advanced nuclear reactors. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has recently developed a novel design for high-temperature latent heat storage system, called Heat pipe Integrated Thermal Battery (HITB), and efforts are underway to experimentally demonstrate the concept. HITB employs liquid-metal heat pipes to establish thermal linkage between TES and nuclear systems without direct fluid exchange, minimizing the potential risk of the integrated systems such as cross-contamination. HITB is designed to achieve high charging and discharging efficiency as well as high energy storage density by employing metal alloys as Phase Change Material (PCM). Initial proof-of-concept experiments are being undertaken using an aluminum alloy (Al59%-Mg35%-Zn6%). This paper discusses current progress of the HITB project at INL, seeking to develop high-temperature TES for versatile integration with advanced nuclear reactors, and shares insights from the performance evaluations via numerical modeling and analysis.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation And Economics (mouse)

Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation and Economics (MOUSE) is a tool that integrates both nuclear microreactor design and reactor economics to provide comprehensive evaluations and optimizations. This tool enables stakeholders to explore the interplay between technical and economic variables, guiding them towards effective and competitive microreactor solutions. For the reactor core simulations, MOUSE leverages the OpenMC Monte Carlo Particle Transport Code to perform detailed core simulations for various microreactor designs. The included OpenMC models are 2D core designs of a Liquid Metal Thermal Microreactor (LMTR), a Gas-Cooled TRISO-Fueled Microreactor (GCMR), and a Heat Pipe Microreactor. Beyond core design, MOUSE includes simplified calculations for: - Calculating the masses of heat exchangers within the system. - Mechanical power of pumps. - Estimating the area occupied by various buildings within the nuclear plant. For the economic analysis, MOUSE provides detailed bottom-up cost estimates, encompassing a wide range of costs including preconstruction costs, direct costs, indirect costs, training costs, financial costs, operation & maintenance (O&M) costs, and fuel costs. These cost estimations are developed using data from the MARVEL project and additional literature sources, enabling the calculation of total capital costs and levelized cost of energy for both first-of-a-kind and nth-of-a-kind microreactors. MOUSE also enables analysis of the cost drivers and competitiveness in the electricity market. MOUSE allows users to modify a wide array of technical and economic parameters to evaluate different scenarios and their impacts. Examples of these parameters include: Fuels, coolants, or reflector materials Enrichment levels Control drum materials and geometry Fuel pin geometry and materials Moderator pin geometry and materials Reactor core and reflector dimensions Packing factor for the TRISO particles Nuclear reactor power and reactor burnup Number of sensors Shielding thickness Reactor vessel and guard vessel dimensions Operational staff requirements Number of emergency shutdowns Levelization period Interest rate Construction duration Since MOUSE is powered by the WATTS toolkit, it supports optimization studies, parametric analyses, and uncertainty calculations/propagation. The optimization techniques enable users to identify optimal design and economic configurations. The parametric analysis tools allow users to explore the sensitivity of various parameters, while uncertainty propagation helps quantify the impact of uncertainties on overall performance and cost. User Interface and Workflow: Currently, MOUSE is a command-line-based tool. Users can input various reactor design or economic parameters, modify the designs, run simulations, and visualize results through comprehensive data visualization and reporting capabilities. The typical workflow involves setting up the reactor model, defining economic parameters, running simulations, and analyzing the results to make informed decisions. By combining advanced design calculations with detailed economic modeling, MOUSE provides a robust framework for optimizing nuclear microreactor technologies, enhancing their competitiveness, and guiding stakeholders towards innovative and cost-effective solutions.

Hanna, Botros [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id

Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.

gated recurrent unit