Practical leakage risk assessment for CO2 assisted enhanced oil recovery and geologic storage in Ohio's depleted oil fields
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Duguid, Andrew (ORCID:000000027081147X)↗
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Quantitative Leakage Risk Assessment of Geologic CO2 Storage Projects
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Earth Sciences↗
Risk-based Area of Review Delineation, Leakage Risk Assessment, and Corrective Action for San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III
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Earth Sciences↗
Risk-Based Area of Review Delineation and Leakage Risk Assessment for San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Site in the United States
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Earth Sciences↗
Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage
Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.
decision support↗
Application of quantitative risk assessment to address geologic carbon storage stakeholder questions for site risk and liability
Presentation at the 17th Greenhouse Gas Technologies Conference in Calgary, Alberta, Canada - describing research progress and computational tools developed for geologic carbon storage risk assessment under the National Risk Assessment Partnership.
decision support↗
Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage
The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Dynamic risk assessment for geologic CO 2 sequestration
At a geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) site, geologic uncertainty usually leads to large uncertainty in the predictions of properties that influence metrics for leakage risk assessment, such as CO 2 saturations and pressures in potentially leaky wellbores, CO 2 /brine leakage rates, and leakage consequences such as changes in drinking water quality in groundwater aquifers. The large uncertainty in these risk-related system properties and risk metrics can lead to over-conservative risk management decisions to ensure safe operations of GCS sites. The objective of this work is to develop a novel approach based on dynamic risk assessment to effectively reduce the uncertainty in the predicted risk-related system properties and risk metrics. We demonstrate our framework for dynamic risk assessment on two case studies: a 3D synthetic example and a synthetic field example based on the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU) storage site in Wyoming, USA. Results show that the U.S. National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) coupled with a conformance evaluation can be used to effectively quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the predictions of risk-related system properties and risk metrics in GCS.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NRAP-open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated-assessment-model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management
Large-scale implementation of geologic carbon storage (GCS) to help reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions requires stakeholder confidence that injected CO2 will remain contained and that potential subsurface environmental risks are acceptably small and manageable. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed an open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to help address questions about a potential GCS site’s ability to effectively contain injected CO 2 and protect groundwater and other overlying environmentally sensitive receptors. NRAP-Open-IAM allows a user to: (1) incorporate relevant site geologic and injection scenario data; (2) characterize important site features and events;(3) couple fast prediction models of various system components of the engineered geologic system; and (4) execute stochastic, dynamic simulation of whole GCS system performance, leakage risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. NRAP-Open-IAM is available on GitLab (https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM), and is accompanied by multiple application examples and detailed user and developer guides.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Two-Phase Flow Mechanisms Controlling CO2 Intrusion into Shaly Caprock
Abstract Geologic carbon storage in deep saline aquifers has emerged as a promising technique to mitigate climate change. CO 2 is buoyant at the storage conditions and tends to float over the resident brine jeopardizing long-term containment goals. Therefore, the caprock sealing capacity is of great importance and requires detailed assessment. We perform supercritical CO 2 injection experiments on shaly caprock samples (intact caprock and fault zone) under representative subsurface conditions. We numerically simulate the experiments, satisfactorily reproducing the observed evolution trends. Simulation results highlight the dynamics of CO 2 flow through the specimens with implications to CO 2 leakage risk assessment in field practices. The large injection-induced overpressure drives CO 2 in free phase into the caprock specimens. However, the relative permeability increase following the drainage path is insufficient to provoke an effective advancement of the free-phase CO 2 . As a result, the bulk CO 2 front becomes almost immobile. This implies that the caprock sealing capacity is unlikely to be compromised by a rapid capillary breakthrough and the injected CO 2 does not penetrate deep into the caprock. In the long term, the intrinsically slow molecular diffusion appears to dominate the migration of CO 2 dissolved into brine. Nonetheless, the inherently tortuous nature of shaly caprock further holds back the diffusive flow, favoring safe underground storage of CO 2 over geological time scales.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration
Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Advancing spatiotemporal forecasts of CO 2 plume migration using deep learning networks with transfer learning and interpretation analysis
Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume distribution throughout the injection and post-injection phases are crucial for detecting plume migration, assessing leakage risks, and supporting operational decisions in geologic carbon storage (GCS). Current convolutional neural network-based approaches primarily focus on spatial information and overlook temporal dependencies in plume distributions, thus limiting their ability to capture dynamic movement effects and provide accurate predictions of plume migration. In this work, we propose two deep learning models, Auto-Encoder (AE)-LSTM and Encoder-Decoder (ED)-ConvLSTM, each uniquely designed to capture both spatial and temporal features. We apply the proposed methods to forecast the dynamic distribution of CO 2 plumes based on 108 reservoir simulations over a 30-year injection and a 30-year post-injection period. The results indicate that the ED-ConvLSTM model outperforms the AE-LSTM model in accurately predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of CO 2 plume migration, achieving R 2 values above 0.99. To provide a deeper understanding of these model predictions, we employ a gradient-based explanation method on the trained models. This approach provides insights into the influence of input variables on plume migration forecasts and uncovers the underlying prediction mechanisms of the proposed models. Furthermore, we introduce a transfer learning technique, enabling fast and accurate plume migration forecasting in the post-injection phase by leveraging the trained model during the injection phase. This reduces the necessity for extensive data collection or re-training. In conclusion, the methods proposed in our work enhances the performance and interpretability of CO 2 plume migration forecasts, thereby facilitating informed decision-making throughout the entire lifecycle of GCS applications.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Semi-Analytical Leakage Solutions for Aquifers (SALSA) v1
SALSA is a semi-analytical modeling tool that can provide assessments of pressure perturbations and brine leakage because of fluid injection and extraction activities in sedimentary basins. Sedimentary basins typically contain vertical sequences of near-horizontal aquifers separated by less-permeable aquitards. In the context of geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), while aquitards are relied upon to contain injected buoyant free-phase CO2 and limit inter-aquifer brine flow, the large number of leaky wells (e.g., unused/unsuccessful exploration wells, or improperly plugged water or oil/gas wells) that are present in sedimentary basins creates concerns for potential leakage and groundwater contamination. The mathematical theory and solution method included in SALSA is presented in our recent manuscript under review. SALSA is the first to account for the coupled leakage through aquitards and leaky wells, with geologic pressurization sources. SALSA based on semi-analytical solutions can be computationally very efficient for problems containing many injection and leaky wells in multilayered sedimentary systems, compared to any numerical simulation software requiring local mesh refinement around each well to obtain accurate results. Therefore, stakeholders (e.g., regulators, operators) for site screening, injection and post-injection pressure behavior and assessing leakage risks can use SALSA as a fast-predictive tool in GCS applications in multilayered aquifer systems.
Cihan, Abdullah↗
NRAP Recommended Practices for Containment Assurance and Leakage Risk Quantification
This report presents recommendations for quantitatively assessing and managing leakage risk and effective containment assurance at geologic carbon storage (GCS) sites, amidst uncertainty in site characteristics and performance. These recommended practices are a product of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP)—a multi-year collaborative research effort of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These recommended practices are organized as a set of conceptual workflows that correspond with the stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They consider aspects of site characterization, quantification of potential leakage, assessing the spatial extent of potential environmental impacts, optimizing monitoring design for detection of potential leakage, evaluation of concordance between monitored and forecasted reservoir response, assessing conformance with expected/accepted performance, and determination of the timeline over which risk of impactful leakage can be expected to abate. These conceptual workflows are intended to aid stakeholders in making risk management decisions at GCS sites and to support development of sound, risk-based justifications for characterizing the subsurface, defining area of potential leakage impact, designing site monitoring plans, selecting leakage risk management/mitigation alternatives, and estimating site closure timelines.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Chemical Impacts of Potential CO2 and Brine Leakage on Groundwater Quality with Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Farnsworth Unit
Potential leakage of reservoir fluids is considered a key risk factor for geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS), with concerns of their chemical impacts on the quality of overlying underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). Effective risk assessment provides useful information to guide GCS activities for protecting USDWs. In this study, we present a quantified risk assessment case study of an active commercial-scale CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) and sequestration field, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). Specific objectives of this study include: (1) to quantify potential risks of CO2 and brine leakage to the overlying USDW quality with response surface methodology (RSM); and (2) to identify water chemistry indicators for early detection criteria. Results suggest that trace metals (e.g., arsenic and selenium) are less likely to become a risk due to their adsorption onto clay minerals; no-impact thresholds based on site monitoring data could be a preferable reference for early groundwater quality evaluation; and pH is suggested as an indicator for early detection of a leakage. This study may provide quantitative insight for monitoring strategies on GCS sites to enhance the safety of long-term CO2 sequestration.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Risk Considerations of Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to CO2 storage Field: Case Study
In the United States (U.S.), carbon dioxide (CO2) injection wells at EOR sites are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. A CO2-EOR facility considering a transitioning from tertiary oil recovery to injecting CO2 for the primary purpose of long-term storage is required to obtain a Class VI permit where this transition poses an increased risk to underground sources of drinking water. This study considers how transitioning operations from CO2-EOR to storage can impact reservoir plume and pressure transient in the storage envelope, and how these changes could impact area of review and potential unwanted fluid migration. We developed a case study to assess subsurface response and leakage risks associated with a representative, hypothetical operation in a carbonate reservoir. This reservoir transitions from tertiary hydrocarbon recovery to dedicated GCS. Reservoir simulations were run for a set of credible CO2-EOR scenarios to estimate distributions of fluids phases and pressures throughout the model domain after CO2 flooding as well as forecasting the behavior of the reservoir after the transition to a dedicated storage phase. The evolutions from all simulated scenarios were used as the basis for leakage risk quantification using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) with a novel reduced-order model to estimate time-dependent leakage of CO2, brine, and hydrocarbon fluids through potentially leaky wells. Results include a description of reservoir response, an estimate of the areal extent that could potentially be impacted by leakage to underground sources of drinking water, and estimates of the magnitude of potential leakage. Considerations for dedicated storage injection well selection, injectivity, and injection scheme performance and potential leakage risk are presented, with implications for risk assessment of well transition discussed. This study presents a risk-based workflow for the Class II to Class VI well transition. Integrating credible numerical simulation of viable CO2-EOR to dedicated CO2 storage with quantitative risk assessment tools, such as the NRAP-Open-IAM, will provide a valuable means to devise operational scenarios and inform decision-making related to storage benefit, leakage risk, and liability. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.
Liu, Guoxiang↗
NRAP-Open-IAM: Open Wellbore Component (V.2.0)
The Open Wellbore component of NRAP-Open-IAM is applicable to the calculation of Area of Review at a carbon storage site and fast estimation of dense gas dispersion from multiple continuous CO 2 surface leakage sources for risk assessment. The Open Wellbore Component of NRAP-Open-IAM is a lookup table model based on the drift-flux approach. The National Research Assessment Partnership’s second-generation integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, is open-source software written in Python for use in performance and quantitative risk assessment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems. The look-up table for open well leakage is an updated version the previous model which provides finer resolution of reservoir depth and more accurate fluid properties than the previous open well look-up table, especially in calculating the gas (CO 2 -rich) phase properties. The component model input parameters include the reservoir transmissivity, aquifer transmissivity, brine salinity, well radius, and well top and bottom depths. The reservoir transmissivity and brine salinity were set to values consistent with the reservoir component, and the well top and bottom depths varied with location. The possible outputs from the Open Wellbore component are leakage rates of CO 2 and brine to either an aquifer or atmosphere, depending on the depth of the well top. Several python test scripts are presented that demonstrate that the Open Wellbore component works correctly. Use of the open wellbore model in NRAP-Open-IAM may result in a large CO 2 leakage rates, comparable to the leakage rates of CO 2 blow out.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Downwind dispersion of CO 2 from a major subsea blowout in shallow offshore waters
Growing interest in offshore geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) motivates risk assessment of large-scale subsea CO 2 well blowouts or pipeline ruptures. For major leaks of CO 2 from wells or pipelines, significant fluxes of CO 2 may occur from the sea surface depending on water depth. In the context of risk assessment of human health and safety, we have used previously simulated coupled well-reservoir and water column model results as a source term for dense gas dispersion of CO 2 above the sea surface. The models are linked together by one-way coupling, that is, output of one model is used as input to the next model. These first-of-their-kind coupled flow results are applicable to assessing the hazard of CO 2 to people at and downwind of the sea surface location of emission. Hazard is quantified by plotting the downwind dispersion length (DDL), which we define in the study as the distances from the emission source to the point at which the emitted CO 2 has been diluted to 5% and 1.5% in air by volume. Here results suggest that large-scale blowouts in shallow water (10 m) may cause hazardous CO 2 plumes extending on the order of several hundred meters downwind. Details of the modeling show DDL has a maximum for windspeed (at an elevation of 10 m) of approximately 5 m/s, with smaller DDL for both weaker and stronger winds. This is explained by the fact that wind favors transport but also causes dispersion; therefore there is a certain wind speed that maximizes DDL.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗