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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Energy and Meteorological Impacts on Thanksgiving CO2 in Salt Lake City

Abstract Long-term, high-frequency atmospheric CO2 measurements at multiple sites in the Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah, reveal that annual and monthly CO2 variability aligns with a priori estimates of emissions from anthropogenic and biological sources. In this study, we investigate whether short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions, as captured in the Vulcan3 dataset for the United States, can be detected in atmospheric CO2 observations. Specifically, we focus on Thanksgiving holidays, when traffic and energy usage patterns differ from the rest of November. Onroad CO2 emissions exhibit a double peak during weekday morning and evening rush hours but remain relatively low on weekends and Thanksgiving. Interestingly, CO2 mole fractions during Thanksgiving were higher than the rest of November at all SLC monitoring sites, particularly from 2008 to 2013. This increase is partially attributed to elevated energy-related emissions — especially residential sources — and meteorological factors such as weak wind speeds, cold temperature, and a low planetary boundary layer height (PBLH). While CO₂ emissions and mole fraction patterns align over time, notable spatial differences exist. For instance, the near-highway site in Murray shows the highest CO₂ mole fractions despite low local emissions, suggesting pollution transport via highways and wind advection. Random Forest model-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis reveals that onroad emissions dominate CO2 contributions on weekdays and weekends, while energy-related emissions play a larger role during Thanksgiving, alongside meteorological drivers such as wind speed and PBLH. Across six urban cities, CO2 emissions display a consistent pattern: residential and commercial (onroad) emissions peak during Thanksgiving (weekday) with substantial (minimal) year-to-year variability. These findings highlight that urban CO₂ variability is driven by the combined influence of emissions and meteorology, underscoring the need for integrated mitigation strategies. Additionally, multi-site measurements are essential for accurate source attribution and the development of effective policy interventions. 

Ryoo, Ju-Mee (ORCID:0000000234256296)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluate data lake design for the accelerator control system

Increasing precision in automation for modern particle accelerators not only creates a requirement to gather data from all devices but also demands scalable and high-performance data infrastructure with the capability of handling vast incoming device data. A well architected data lake is suitable for such a system which integrates real-time data acquisition, transient data caching, and long-term storage. This paper evaluates data lake architecture for an Accelerator Control System (ACS), focusing on two critical components of a data lake, data cache and long-term storage.

Jaikar, Amol [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Financial Analysis of the Smallmouth Bass Flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2024

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specifies criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report presents a financial analysis of the Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) (SMB) flows implemented at GCD during Water Year (WY) 2024. These bypass flows were introduced by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) as an emergency response to the growing threat posed by invasive SMB in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of the dam. SMB are a non-native predatory species that pose a significant threat to native fish populations, including the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha). The thermal regime below GCD, typically cold due to hypolimnetic releases from Lake Powell, has historically served as a thermal barrier limiting SMB establishment. However, persistently low reservoir levels in recent years have reduced stratification in Lake Powell, allowing warmer water to be released downstream. This has enabled SMB to spawn successfully below the dam, prompting urgent ecological concerns. To mitigate the risk of SMB proliferation, the USBR implemented a series of bypass flows in WY 2024. Drawn from a lower elevation than the penstocks, the bypass structures released cooler water downstream. These short-duration bypass flows aimed to keep temperatures cool enough to prevent SMB from spawning, thereby reducing the ecological threat posed by this invasive species. Although motivated by ecological objectives, these bypass flows came with financial tradeoffs. Releasing water through the bypass structures instead of the turbines at GCD reduced hydropower generation, resulting in a significantly lower financial position for Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), which is responsible for marketing the electricity produced by the GCD Powerplant. This report analyzes the financial impact of the SMB flows implemented from July to November 2024. These experimental releases led to an estimated financial cost of approximately $18.9 million, primarily driven by the substantial volume of water diverted through the bypass structures. This study applies an integrated set of tools to estimate WAPA financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the water operations that actually occurred, including the SMB bypass flows, and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the SMB flows did not occur. Both cases comply with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria, and the monthly water release volumes are assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Financial Analysis of the High Flow Experiment conducted at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2023

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specified criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report examines the financial implications of the high flow experiment (HFE) conducted at GCD during the spring of Water Year (WY) 2023 as required by the LTEMP HFE Protocol. This report is part of a series of reports that describe the financial costs of LTEMP experimental releases since the 2016 ROD was adopted in January 2017. Previous reports analyzed the impact of several past HFEs and Bug Flow Experiments. This report focuses on the HFE conducted in April 2023. For this experimental release, financial costs of approximately $1.33 million were incurred because the HFE required sustained water releases exceeding the power plant’s maximum turbine flow rate. In addition, during the experiment, operators were not allowed to shape GCD power production, either to follow Firm Electric Service (FES) customer day-ahead energy deliveries or to respond to market prices. This study identifies the main factors contributing to the HFE costs and examines the interdependencies among these factors. It applies an integrated set of tools to estimate Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the operations that actually occurred and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the HFE did not occur. The “With Experiment” case mimics operations during the HFE and the entire month the HFE occurred. It complies with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria. The “Without Experiment” case assumes that the HFE did not occur. The monthly water release volume is assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices. In addition to estimating the financial impact of the HFE, the team used the CRiSPPy model to gain insights into the interplay among ROD operating criteria, exceptions made to criteria to accommodate the HFE, and WAPA operating practices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Financial Analysis of the Smallmouth Bass Flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during 2025

Ploussard, Quentin [Argonne National Laboratory (A↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear fuel from saline waters

Growing demand for nuclear fuel is accelerating the need for sustainable uranium resources that ensure long-term supply and mitigate environmental risks. Here, a study now presents an intriguing self-powered methodology that utilizes the motion of falling water droplets to drive uranium recovery from salt lakes.

Wiechert, Alexander I. [Oak Ridge National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydropower and environmental flow management: System-level trade-offs at Glen Canyon Dam

The research focuses on the Colorado River Basin, specifically examining the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) and its influence on surrounding aquatic ecosystems. This area is crucial due to its role in hydropower production and its impact on downstream environments, including the Grand Canyon National Park. This study explores the integration of environmental factors into hydro dispatch modeling at GCD to tackle ecological challenges posed by the invasive smallmouth bass (SMB). Utilizing the GTMax SL and SERM models, the research assesses the effects of SMB control experiments on hydropower generation, economic value, and grid stability. The study examines the financial and economic impacts of bypass flows designed to release colder water to prevent SMB spawning, which can significantly reduce hydropower output and increase costs. The research identifies that declining reservoir levels and rising water temperatures in Lake Powell have facilitated SMB spawning, posing a threat to native fish populations like the endangered humpback chub. The findings highlight the importance of adaptive management strategies to balance ecological preservation with hydropower generation amid long-term weather-related challenges. The study underscores the need for comprehensive assessments of flow options to prevent SMB establishment below GCD, considering the broader implications for sediment dynamics and ecological interactions.

Ecological impact assessment↗

DOE OSTI2025

Agricultural Management Legacy Effects on Switchgrass Growth and Soil Carbon Gains

Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) is a native North American grass currently considered a high-potential bioenergy feedstock crop. However, previous reports questioned its effectiveness in generating soil organic carbon (SOC) gains, with resultant uncertainty regarding the monoculture switchgrass's impact on the environmental sustainability of bioenergy agriculture. We hypothesize that the inconsistencies in past SOC accrual results might be due, in part, to differences in prior land management among the systems subsequently planted to switchgrass. To test this hypothesis, we measured SOC and other soil properties, root biomass, and switchgrass growth in an experimental site with a 30-year history of contrasting tillage and N-fertilization treatments, 7 years after switchgrass establishment. We determined switchgrass' monthly gross primary production (GPP) for six consecutive years and conducted deep soil sampling. Nitrogen fertilization expectedly stimulated switchgrass growth; however, a tendency for better plant growth was also observed under unfertilized settings in the former no-till soil. In topsoil, SOC significantly increased from 2007 to 2023 in fertilized treatments of both tillage histories, with the greatest increase observed in fertilized no-till. Fertilized no-till also had the highest particulate organic matter content in the topsoil, with no differences among the treatments observed in deeper soil layers. However, regardless of fertilization, the tillage history had a strong effect on stratification with depth of SOC, total N, and microbial biomass C. Results suggested that historic and ongoing N fertilization had a substantial impact on switchgrass growth and soil characteristics, while tillage legacy had a much weaker, but still discernible, effect.

bioenergy crop production system↗

DOE OSTI2026

Farm Practice Typologies as a Strategy for Management-Relevant Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in the Great Lakes Region (Version 1) [Dataset]

Dataset overview and development This dataset provides spatially explicit agricultural land-use and land-management typologies developed for the Great Lakes Region (GLR) at the farm-parcel level. The typologies were designed to characterize not only the land-use and land-cover (LULC) associated with individual agricultural farm parcels, but also the land-management practices (LMPs), including irrigation, tile drainage, and conservation easements, occurring within those parcels and how these characteristics change through time. The dataset contains four related typology products: Annual integrated typology – describes the combined LULC and land-management characteristics for each farm parcel for individual years. LULC transition typology – describes the temporal pattern of LULC change for each farm parcel across the study period (2008-2023). LMP trend typology – describes the temporal pattern in the occurrence of LMPs for each farm parcel across the study period. Multi-year integrated typology – combines the LULC transition typology and LMP trend typology to provide an integrated characterization of long-term land-use and management patterns. Purpose of the dataset The purpose of these products is to provide a management-relevant integrated and consistent framework for evaluating the spatial and temporal organization of agricultural landscapes across the GLR. The resulting typologies can: support landscape-scale environmental and land-use analysis; provide spatial information relevant to land-management strategies, conservation planning, policy development, and program evaluation; characterize spatial patterns of agricultural land use and management; examine changes in agricultural landscapes through time; and identify persistent, transitional, and changing agricultural systems. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Two decades of bacterial ecology and evolution in a freshwater lake

Ecology and evolution are considered distinct processes that interact on contemporary time scales in microbiomes. Here, to observe these processes in a natural system, we collected a two-decade, 471-metagenome time series from Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA). We assembled 2,855 species-representative genomes and found that genomic change was common and frequent. By tracking strain composition via single nucleotide variants, we identified cyclical seasonal patterns in 80% and decadal shifts in 20% of species. In the dominant freshwater family Nanopelagicaceae, environmental extremes coincided with shifts in strain composition and positive selection of amino acid and nucleic acid metabolism genes. Further, these genes identify organic nitrogen compounds as potential drivers of freshwater responses to global change. Seasonal and long-term strain dynamics could be regarded as ecological processes or, equivalently, as evolutionary change. Rather than as distinct interacting processes, we propose a conceptualization of ecology and evolution as a continuum to better describe change in microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

National Hydropower Fish Passage Database User's Guide and Methodology

Fish passage facilities are used to mitigate the impacts of hydropower dams on migratory fish in rivers, but information on the location, types, and characteristics of this infrastructure is incomplete at a national scale. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory partnered with federal agency and industry stakeholders to create the first national-scale database of fish passage infrastructure at U.S. hydropower developments. This database contains information of great value to a broad range of stakeholders; it includes fish passage facility engineering characteristics, targeted fish species, operational schedules, and costs. This data resource addresses a large gap in knowledge of the deployment of fish passage technology and is freely available to members of the hydropower community, including federal and state regulators and resource agencies, non-governmental organizations, industry, and other user groups to support project planning and regulatory (re)licensing activities. This database supports the U.S. Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office objective to develop decision support tools and data resources that improve environmental performance and ensure hydropower’s long-term value to the American public.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

ORNL National Hydropower Fish Passage Database

Fish passage facilities are used to mitigate impacts of hydropower dams to migratory fish in rivers, but information on the location, types, and characteristics of this infrastructure is incomplete at a national scale. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) partnered with fish passage engineers and hydropower experts from the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), and the Low Impact Hydropower Institute (LIHI) to create the first national scale database of fish passage infrastructure at US hydropower developments. This database consists of the ORNL_Fish_Passage_Dataset.zip file with 13 individual .csv files that contain information on fish passage facility engineering characteristics, targeted fish species, operational schedule, and costs. which is of great value to a diverse range of stakeholders. This information was collected between December 2023 and July 2025 from project partners, other hydropower stakeholders, online datasets available for download, and a stakeholder questionnaire Information. This data resource addresses a large gap in knowledge of the deployment of fish passage technology and is freely available to members of the hydropower community, including federal and state regulators and resource agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), industry, and other user groups to support project planning and regulatory (re)licensing activities. This database supports the US Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office objective to develop decision support tools and data resources that improve environmental performance and ensure hydropower’s long-term value to the American public.

Matson, Paul [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Switchgrass ( Panicum Virgatum ) and Miscanthus ( Miscanthus × Giganteus ) Long-Term Yield Patterns Reveal Consistent Productivity Declines

Perennial grasses like switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) are expected to supply a substantial amount of the United States bioeconomy's feedstock demand. However, uncertainties around their long-term yields challenge the viability of their potential and limit their wider adoption. To resolve their long-term yield patterns, we analyzed over 200 plantings of switchgrass and miscanthus across Michigan and Wisconsin, USA, measured over 5–15 years. We found a consistent two-phase long-term yield dynamic; during a yield-building phase , peak yields occurred within 4–5 years after planting, followed by a yield-decline phase in which switchgrass and miscanthus lost 30%–47% and 14%–40% of peak yields, respectively. Among the potential drivers of this dynamic and the yield decline, we found that weather conditions had little impact, as the variation across years was not large enough to drive the observed yield differences. Added nitrogen increased peak yields by 10%–20% and attenuated the yield decline by 20%–50%. However, since fertilized stands still showed a yield decline, other factors became limiting as stands aged. This conserved long-term yield dynamic has direct implications on management. A farm-to-gate economic analysis suggests replanting switchgrass and miscanthus 5 and 9 years following their peak yields maximizes profit over a 30-year time horizon. Results call for further management and breeding strategies to mitigate the yield-decline phase, and for reparameterization of global bioenergy models with carbon capture and storage, which may overestimate yields and the economic and environmental benefits of crops grown for bioenergy feedstocks.

bioenergy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Oxygen Evolution Reaction and Stability in Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells (p-SOECs) via a Porous Gadolinium-Doped Ceria Interlayer

Proton-conducting solid oxide electrolysis cells (p-SOECs) offer a promising pathway for intermediate temperature (400-600 °C) hydrogen production. However, they still face critical challenges related to sluggish oxygen evolution reaction (OER) kinetics and low Faradaic efficiencies. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that introducing a thin (~0.8 µm) porous Gd 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 1.95 (GDC) interlayer between a BaCo 0.8 Zr 0.1 Zn 0.1 O 3-δ (BCZZ) oxygen electrode and electrolyte significantly enhances p-SOEC performance. The GDC interlayer reduces polarization resistance by 48% (0.54 to 0.28 O cm 2 ) and increases Faradaic efficiency from 63% to 81% at -0.8 A/cm 2 and 600 °C. GDC interlayer p-SOECs display elevated effective H 2 current densities compared to control p-SOECs and reach up to -1.22 A/cm 2 at 1.3 V. Mechanistic studies on the interactions between GDC and BCZZ reveal that GDC intrinsically promotes OER kinetics by significantly reducing the polarization activation energy (Ea p ), dropping from 1.45 to 1.22 eV for full p-SOECs and 0.98 to 0.76 eV for symmetric cells. This promotional effect is localized in the electrochemically active region near the electrolyte interface. Durability testing for over 1500 hours under 50% H 2 O conditions indicates that the GDC interlayer also improves long-term stability, with a degradation rate 53% lower than control p-SOECs. By pinpointing the interfacial region where GDC exerts its promotional effect, highlighting its role in enhancing OER kinetics, and establishing interlayer engineering as a powerful technique, this work provides a unified pathway to simultaneously improve p-SOEC activity, Faradaic efficiency, and durability.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and grazing pressure on the net ecosystem carbon balance of grazing lands across the continental United States

Grazing lands cover approximately one-third of the contiguous United States, support much of the nation's beef production, and are an important component of the U.S. terrestrial carbon budget. In this study, we quantified net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), the net status of grazing lands as a carbon sink (C-sink) or source (C-source) and a key determinant of soil health and productivity. Our primary objective was to synthesize multiple years of annual NECB across heterogeneous grazing lands across the continental U.S and evaluate annual NECB against physical drivers (mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), vegetation, and moisture condition) and management practices (grazing pressure index (GPI) and fertilization history). We hypothesized that (1) NECB is higher in mesic and fertilized grasslands; (2) NECB increases with MAP and MAT but decreases with GPI; and (3) interactive effects exist among MAP, MAT, and GPI. Using carbon fluxes measured by eddy covariance towers and methane emissions including both enteric methane and manure derived from stocking rates across seven USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research Network sites, we found: (1) grazing lands were a C-sink or carbon neutral at most sites; (2) vegetation type, moisture conditions, or fertilization had no significant effect on NECB; (3) NECB increased with MAP and MAT, but decreased with a higher GPI; and (4) MAT had a significant positive effect on NECB when MAP exceeded 750 mm (greater water availability). The effect of GPI on NECB was significantly negative when MAP was below 1000 mm, significantly negative when MAT < 12 °C and significantly positive when MAT > 16 °C. Thus, most grazing lands in our study acted as C-sinks unless water deficit, low temperature, or heavy grazing were interactively present. Understanding how climate and management influence NECB of grazing lands is key to maintaining resilient agroecosystems that secure beef production and sustain rural prosperity.

LTAR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Standard Library Plant Controller Model Specification for a Grid-Forming Hybrid Control Inverter-Based Resource (REPCGFM_C1)

This document describes a standard library plant controller model to interface with the grid-forming hybrid control inverter-based resource (IBR) model. The initial version of model specification was jointly developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Tesla Energy, and EPRI, and it was revised multiple times later to incorporate suggestions from WECC MVS members. Tesla Energy provided main control algorithms to support the development of this model specification. This standard library model is developed to help the utility industry better understand the GFM technology. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment matures and improves, standard library models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Standard Library Grid-Forming Hybrid Control Inverter-Based Resource Model Specification (REGFM_C1)

This document describes a standard library grid-forming (GFM) hybrid control inverter-based resource (IBR) model. The GFM hybrid control approach implements both a typical GFM control and a typical grid-following (GFL) control inside one single inverter simultaneously, so that it can take advantage of both methods without comprising the benefits of a typical GFM. The initial version of model specification was jointly developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Tesla Energy, and EPRI, and it was revised multiple times later to incorporate suggestions from WECC MVS members. Tesla Energy provided main control blocks to support the development of this model specification. This standard library model is developed to help the utility industry better understand the GFM technology. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment matures and improves, standard library models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗