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At least 19 records

Extremely rapid, Lagrangian modeling of 2D flooding: A rivulet-based approach

Estimates of potential flood inundation areas and depths are critical to informing the preparedness, response, and investment decisions of many government agencies and private sector organizations, especially under a changing climate. The standard modeling approaches, however, are often either computationally intensive or constrained in their accuracy or applicability. A novel, rivulet-based, 2D model of pluvial flooding is described in this article that is 10,000 to 10 million times less computationally complex than the full solution of the shallow water equations, yet achieves inundation area hit rates of between 0.8 and 0.9 and relative absolute mean errors of 10%-20% across a wide range of flow depths. This combination of accuracy and efficiency will enable real-time depth estimates during flood events, detailed sensitivity analyses, and the generation of large ensembles to support broad uncertainty analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Cloud Development and Organization Processes within the Madden-Julian Oscillation using ARM Observations and Lagrangian Modeling

This report summarizes the accomplishments of the project “Assessment of Cloud Development and Organization Processes within the Madden-Julian Oscillation using ARM Observations and Lagrangian Modeling”. The overarching goal of this project was to understand the evolution and physical processes of cloud organization associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The data collected through the ARM-supported DYNAMO/AMIE field campaign was the central component of the project, which was integrated with numerical simulations to extend our understanding of physical processes. The major achievement of this project includes the development of new frameworks to diagnose cloud organization and the quantification of the role of cold pools and cloud radiative forcing on the intraseasonal cloud organization through both observational and model approaches. The project resulted in four publications and 20 presentations while supporting the training and professional development of four graduate students.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced order models for Lagrangian hydrodynamics

It is reported, as a mathematical model of high-speed flow and shock wave propagation in a complex multimaterial setting, Lagrangian hydrodynamics is characterized by moving meshes, advection-dominated solutions, and moving shock fronts with sharp gradients. These challenges hinder the existing projection-based model reduction schemes from being practical. We develop several variations of projection-based reduced order model techniques for Lagrangian hydrodynamics by introducing three different reduced bases for position, velocity, and energy fields. A time-windowing approach is also developed to address the challenge imposed by the advection-dominated solutions. Lagrangian hydrodynamics is formulated as a nonlinear problem, which requires a proper hyper-reduction technique. Therefore, we apply the over-sampling DEIM and SNS approaches to reduce the complexity due to the nonlinear terms. Finally, we also present both a posteriori and a priori error bounds associated with our reduced order model. We compare the performance of the spatial and time-windowing reduced order modeling approaches in terms of accuracy and speed-up with respect to the corresponding full order model for several numerical examples, namely Sedov blast, Gresho vortices, Taylor-Green vortices, and triple-point problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Summertime Mesoscale Convective Systems: A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model Perspective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant rainfall producer over the United States during the warm season, causing natural disasters and severe weather every year. Global climate models have large uncertainty in projecting precipitation changes in the future climate. Here, a simple Lagrangian parcel model is used to investigate the impact of global warming on MCS initiation and growth. The single-column parcel model projects a mean precipitation decrease over the central United States and an increase to its east, in agreement with the CMIP5 model projection. It also highlights the crucial role of current climate mean-state model bias in exaggerating the change in future mean precipitation projection by 25%. As for convective population, the model captures the decreased occurrence frequency of weak to moderate convection and increased frequency of strong convection due to the increased CAPE and CIN, in agreement with convection-permitting regional simulations. Novel parameterizations of gust-front propagation speed and subsidence strength are developed as guided by cloud-resolving simulations. The multicolumn parcel model employing those parameterizations captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature. It simulates smaller mesoscale clusters over the central United States under global warming due to gust-front slowdown and subsidence strength enhancement, which are further attributed to land aridity–induced weakening of initial accumulated precipitation and strengthening of updraft speed, respectively. That said, mesoscale clusters could become bigger under more favorable conditions in future climate, including boundary layer moistening, convection lifetime lengthening, and cold pool mechanical-lifting enhancement, which require further investigations to improve mechanistic understanding of future MCS changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

QES-Plume v1.0: a Lagrangian dispersion model

Low-cost simulations providing accurate predictions of transport of airborne material in urban areas, vegetative canopies, and complex terrain are demanding because of the small-scale heterogeneity of the features influencing the mean flow and turbulence fields. Common models used to predict turbulent transport of passive scalars are based on the Lagrangian stochastic dispersion model. The Quick Environmental Simulation (QES) tool is a low-computational-cost framework developed to provide high-resolution wind and concentration fields in a variety of complex atmospheric-boundary-layer environments. Part of the framework, QES-Plume, is a Lagrangian dispersion code that uses a time-implicit integration scheme to solve the generalized Langevin equations which require mean flow and turbulence fields. Here, QES-Plume is driven by QES-Winds, a 3D fast-response model that computes mass-consistent wind fields around buildings, vegetation, and hills using empirical parameterizations, and QES-Turb, a local-mixing-length turbulence model. In this paper, the particle dispersion model is presented and validated against analytical solutions to examine QES-Plume’s performance under idealized conditions. In particular, QES-Plume is evaluated against a classical Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in uniform flow, the Lagrangian scaling of dispersion in isotropic turbulence, and a non-Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in a power-law boundary-layer flow. In these cases, QES-Plume yields a maximum relative error below 6 % when compared with analytical solutions. In addition, the model is tested against wind-tunnel data for a uniform array of cubical buildings. QES-Plume exhibits good agreement with the experiment with 99 % of matched zeros and 59 % of the predicted concentrations falling within a factor of 2 of the experimental concentrations. Furthermore, results also emphasize the importance of using high-quality turbulence models for particle dispersion in complex environments. Finally, QES-Plume demonstrates excellent computational performance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model for the Initiation of Summer-time Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Central United States

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) account for more than 50% of summertime precipitation over the central United States and have a significant impact on local weather and hydrologic cycle. It is hypothesized that the inadequate treatment of MCSs is responsible for the long-standing warm and dry bias over the central United States in coarse-resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations. In particular, a better understanding of MCS initiation is still lacking. Here a single-column Lagrangian parcel model is first developed to simulate the basic features of a rising parcel. This simple model demonstrates the collective effects of boundary layer moistening and dynamical lifting in triggering convective initiation and reproduces successfully its early afternoon peak with surface equivalent potential temperature as a controlling factor. It also predicts that convection is harder to trigger in the future climate under global warming, consistent with the results from convection-permitting regional climate simulations. Then, a multicolumn model that includes an array of single-column models aligned in the east–west direction and incorporates idealized cold pool interaction mechanisms is developed. The multicolumn model captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature in MCS genesis from initially scattered convection that is organized into a mesoscale cluster in a few hours. It also highlights the crucial role of lifting effects due to cold pool collision and spreading, subsidence effect, and gust front propagation speed in controlling the final size of mesoscale clusters and cold pool regions. This simple model should be useful for understanding fundamental mechanisms of MCS initiation and providing guidance for improving MCS simulations in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗

The Corrected Distortion model for Lagrangian spray simulation of transcritical fuel injection

In this work, we present a detailed implementation and validation of the droplet modeling framework proposed by Dahms and Oefelein (2016) into the engine commercial CFD software CONVERGE using the User Defined Function (UDF) interface. The model accounts for the nonlinear deformation and oscillation experienced by liquid spray droplet injected into high pressure and temperature. Lagrangian spray simulations of Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray A are performed. Model validation against standard experimental measurements of liquid velocity, vapor mixture fraction is conducted. To perform more rigorous model validation, new experimental measurements based on Diffused Back Illumination (DBI) are introduced. The new measurements are processed for Projected Liquid Volume (PLV), which offers as close as possible one-to-one model validation for liquid penetration while offering new insights into the spray physics. Comparison with a One-D model based on adiabatic mixing theory by Siebers (1999) and Desantes et al. (2007) are also conducted. Through these model validation exercises, it is shown that the new framework improves liquid-phase penetration predictions, following a tendency for enhanced evaporation, compared to the standard approach for both Reynolds Average Navier Stokes (RANS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES). Additionally, at the liquid length, maximum mixture fraction values predicted by the new approach are in good agreement those of an adiabatic mixing model. Qualitative analysis of the spray behaviors during the early stage of the injection process reveals that the proposed framework predicts significant increase in droplet evaporation rate with lower drop drag compared to the current standard approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Warm air intrusions reaching the MOSAiC expedition in April 2020—The YOPP targeted observing period (TOP)

In the spring period of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, an initiative was in place to increase the radiosounding frequency during warm air intrusions in the Atlantic Arctic sector. Two episodes with increased surface temperatures were captured during April 12–22, 2020, during a targeted observing period (TOP). The large-scale circulation efficiently guided the pulses of warm air into the Arctic and the observed surface temperature increased from -30°C to near melting conditions marking the transition to spring, as the temperatures did not return to values below -20°C. Back-trajectory analysis identifies 3 pathways for the transport. For the first temperature maximum, the circulation guided the airmass over the Atlantic to the northern Norwegian coast and then to the MOSAiC site. The second pathway was from the south, and it passed over the Greenland ice sheet and arrived at the observational site as a warm but dry airmass due to precipitation on the windward side. The third pathway was along the Greenland coast and the arriving airmass was both warm and moist. The back trajectories originating from pressure levels between 700 and 900 hPa line up vertically, which is somewhat surprising in this dynamically active environment. The processes acting along the trajectory originating from 800 hPa at the MOSAIC site are analyzed. Vertical profiles and surface energy exchange are presented to depict the airmass transformation based on ERA5 reanalysis fields. The TOP could be used for model evaluation and Lagrangian model studies to improve the representation of the small-scale physical processes that are important for airmass transformation. A comparison between MOSAiC observations and ERA5 reanalysis demonstrates challenges in the representation of small-scale processes, such as turbulence and the contributions to various terms of the surface energy budget, that are often misrepresented in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lagrangian particle model for 3D simulation of pellets and SPI fragments in tokamaks

A 3D numerical model for the ablation of pellets and shattered pellet injection (SPI) fragments in tokamaks in the plasma disruption mitigation and fueling parameter space has been developed based on the Lagrangian particle code [R. Samulyak, X. Wang, H.-S. Chen, Lagrangian Particle Method for Compressible Fluid Dynamics, J. Comput. Phys., 362 (2018), 1-19]. The pellet code implements the low magnetic Reynolds number MHD equations, kinetic models for the electronic heating, a pellet surface ablation model, an equation of state that supports multiple ionization states, radiation, and a model for grad-B drift of the ablated material across the magnetic field. The Lagrangian particle algorithm is highly adaptive, capable of simulating a large number of fragments in 3D while eliminating numerical difficulties of dealing with the tokamak background plasma. The code has achieved good agreement with theory for spherically symmetric ablation flows. Axisymmetric simulations of neon and deuterium pellets in magnetic fields ranging from 1 to 6 Tesla have been compared with previous simulations using the FronTier code, and very good agreement has also been obtained. Furthermore, the main physics contribution of the paper is a detailed study of the influence of 3D effects, in particular grad-B drift, on pellet ablation rates and properties of ablation clouds. Smaller reductions of ablation rates in magnetic fields compared to axially symmetric simulations have been demonstrated because the ablated material is not confined to narrowing channels in the presence of grad-B drift. Contribution of various factors in the grad-B drift model has also been quantified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-driven Mori–Zwanzig modeling of Lagrangian particle dynamics in turbulent flows

The dynamics of Lagrangian particles in turbulence play a crucial role in mixing, transport, and dispersion in complex flows. Their trajectories exhibit highly nontrivial statistical behavior, motivating the development of surrogate models that can reproduce these trajectories without incurring the high computational cost of direct numerical simulations of the full Eulerian field. This task is particularly challenging because reduced-order models typically lack access to the full set of interactions with the underlying turbulent field. Novel data-driven machine learning techniques can be powerful in capturing and reproducing complex statistics of the reduced-order/surrogate dynamics. In this work, we show how one can learn a surrogate dynamical system that is able to evolve a turbulent Lagrangian trajectory in a way that is point-wise accurate for short-time predictions (with respect to Kolmogorov time) and stable and statistically accurate at long times. This approach is based on the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, which prescribes a mathematical decomposition of the full dynamical system into resolved dynamics that depend on the current state and the past history of a reduced set of observables, and the unresolved orthogonal dynamics due to unresolved degrees of freedom of the initial state. We show how by training this reduced order model on a point-wise error metric on short time-prediction, we are able to correctly learn the dynamics of Lagrangian turbulence, such that also the long-time statistical behavior is stably recovered at test time. This opens up a range of applications, for example, for the control of active Lagrangian agents in turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A comparison of Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian approaches for modeling stream water quality

This paper describes and compares some of the advantages and limitations of Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches to water quality modeling and introduces a mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian (or semi-Lagrangian) methodology that captures the strengths of both approaches. The semi-Lagrangian modeling approach is applied to advection-dominated rivers, and flexibly ensures unconditional stability for all time step durations and grid segmentations. The semi-Lagrangian modeling approach is demonstrated by applying it to estimate the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Sava River in Slovenia, focusing on aspects of the methodology and findings that would be of broad interest to managers of water quality in fluvial water bodies. Results of comparisons of the semi-Lagrangian model with the Eulerian-based QUAL2K model in steady and non-steady scenarios demonstrate that while both models are fully capable of producing satisfactory results when optimally configured, the semi-Lagrangian approach offers accuracy and stability without sensitivity to the interaction of time step size and computational grid segmentation scheme.

Sava River↗

What is flat ΛCDM, and may we choose it?

The Universe is neither homogeneous nor isotropic, but it is close enough that we can reasonably approximate it as such on suitably large scales. The inflationary-Λ-Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) concordance cosmology builds on these assumptions to describe the origin and evolution of fluctuations. With standard assumptions about stress-energy sources, this system is specified by just seven phenomenological parameters, whose precise relations to underlying fundamental theories are complicated and may depend on details of those fields. Nevertheless, it is common practice to set the parameter that characterizes the spatial curvature, Ω K , exactly to zero. This parameter-fixed ΛCDM is awarded distinguished status as separate model, "flat ΛCDM." Ipso facto this places the onus on proponents of "curved ΛCDM" to present sufficient evidence that Ω K ≠ 0, and is needed as a parameter. While certain inflationary model Lagrangians, with certain values of their parameters, and certain initial conditions, will lead to a present-day universe well-described as containing zero curvature, this does not justify distinguishing that subset of Lagrangians, parameters and initial conditions into a separate model. Absent any theoretical arguments, we cannot use observations that suggest small Ω K to enforce Ω K = 0. Our track record in picking inflationary models and their parameters a priori makes such a choice dubious, and concerns about tensions in cosmological parameters and large-angle cosmic-microwave-background anomalies strengthens arguments against this choice. We argue that Ω K must not be set to zero, and that ΛCDM remains a phenomenological model with at least 7 parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗