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At least 19 records

Forecasting Multi-Step-Ahead Street-Scale Nuisance Flooding using a seq2seq LSTM Surrogate Model for Real-Time Application in a Coastal-Urban City

In coastal-urban cities facing an elevated risk of nuisance flooding (by rain and tide) due to increased heavy rainfall, sea level rise, urbanization, and aging drainage systems, real-time flood forecasting at the street-scale can provide useful information to transportation decision-makers. Physics-Based Models (PBMs) that offer high accuracy come with high computational runtimes and costs that limit their application for real-time flood forecasting. To address this challenge, Machine Learning (ML) surrogate models trained from PBMs have been proposed to provide street-scale flood forecasts. Previous related studies have focused on using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures to model hourly flood depth on streets. While LSTM models can capture input sequences effectively, they fall short in accurately preserving output sequences, limiting their suitability for multi-step-ahead forecasts. The seq2seq LSTM architecture offers a key advantage here by capturing the full sequence of input–output, making it potentially more suitable for multi-step-ahead flood forecasts compared to traditional LSTM models. However, seq2seq LSTM has not been tested for street-scale flood forecasting, particularly for rapidly fluctuating nuisance flooding events which require special attention to its temporal sequences. Hence, in this study, we applied the seq2seq LSTM model to explore multi-step-ahead street-scale nuisance flooding and compared its results to the traditional LSTM model as a benchmark model. LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models were applied to 22 flood-prone streets in Norfolk, Virginia, as a case study with a 4-hr (short-term) and 8-hr (long-term) lead time. The models were trained with environmental (rainfall and tide) and topographic (elevation, Topographic Wetness Index, and Depth-To-Water) features along with PBM-derived water depths for different storm events. The results demonstrated satisfactory performance of both LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models throughout the forecast period compared to the PBM. However, the seq2seq LSTM showed lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE)/ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and higher Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)/ correlation than the LSTM across most lead times, particularly for long-term forecasting due to its supremacy in handling both input–output sequences together, which is missing in the traditional LSTM. For example, in the long-term, the average RMSE ranges were 0.0268–0.0373 m for LSTM and 0.0226–0.0319 m for seq2seq LSTM, while in the short-term, they were 0.0263–0.0293 m and 0.0261–0.0283 m, respectively. Additionally, while both models exhibited similar performance in distinguishing flooded and non-flooded streets for flood depth ≥ 0.1 m, the seq2seq LSTM model demonstrated superior performance for higher flood depths (such as ≥ 0.2 m and ≥ 0.3 m). Once trained, inference took only 0.09 to 0.11 s (short-term) and 0.30 to 0.35 s (long-term) per storm event for the 22 streets, making the application highly suitable for real-time decision-making during nuisance flood events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Mass Conservation Relaxed (MCR) LSTM Model for Streamflow Simulation Across CONUS

The recent development of the physics-aware Mass-Conserving Long Short-Term Memory network (MC-LSTM) provides an alternative to other data-driven Deep Learning (DL) models in hydrology. Mass-Conserving Long Short-Term Memory incorporates mass conservation directly into the LSTM architecture. Despite the theoretical advancements, studies have reported a surprisingly limited performance of the MC-LSTM in streamflow simulation. We hypothesize that such a limitation is due to the unrealistic mass conservation scheme in MC-LSTM, which overlooks unobserved incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation. As an attempt to verify this hypothesis, we propose a Mass Conservation Relaxed LSTM (MCR-LSTM), which incorporates a bi-directional mass relaxation (MR) component to account for potential incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation. We train and test the proposed MCR-LSTM model across 531 watersheds in the contiguous United States (CONUS) against three baseline models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, LSTM, and MC-LSTM. Our results show that MCR-LSTM outperforms MC-LSTM despite its underperformance compared to LSTM. Specifically, MCR-LSTM's advantage over MC-LSTM is mainly seen in the Plains and Western U.S., where the newly incorporated MR component better simulates water loss and suggests the likely existence of additional incoming water fluxes beyond precipitation, respectively. The novelty and contribution of this study are twofold: firstly, it introduces an alternative physics-aware DL tool (i.e., MCR-LSTM) in hydrology with higher accuracy in specific regions compared to MC-LSTM. Secondly, it provides a diagnosis of regions where strict, precipitation-based mass conservation constraints may be unrealistic in streamflow simulation.

deep learning↗

Improving the prediction of daily reservoir releases over the CONUS using conditioned LSTM

Reservoirs play a vital role in regulating streamflow timing and variability for hydroelectricity, flood control, water supply, irrigation, and recreation. Despite their importance, many reservoirs lack comprehensive operational guidelines, making their management complex due to conflicting operational objectives. Hence traditional policy-based reservoir models often fail to capture real-world conditions accurately and they depend on perfect streamflow predictions, which are not always available. In contrast, data-driven models like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks offer a robust alternative. This study introduces an approach that integrates reservoir characteristics—such as main use, climate, and maximum capacity—into the LSTM model to enhance reservoir release predictions. Using data from nearly 200 reservoirs in the contiguous United States (CONUS), our conditioned LSTM model (LSTM_cond) was compared with both the vanila LSTM and a traditional policy-based approach. Furthermore, our results show that while both LSTM_cond and LSTM perfoms better than the policy-based approach, LSTM_cond consistently outperforms LSTM for hydroelectric, water supply, irrigation, and recreation reservoirs. The KGE median values for LSTM_cond for out-sample reservoirs are 0.764, 0.565, 0.821, and 0.779, respectively, for the aforementioned reservoir types, which are consistently higher that the corresponding KGE values of 0.737, 0.413, 0.775, and 0.713 of LSTM, demonstrating its advantages in improving generalizability.

CONUS↗

Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification

This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.

LSTM-MPC↗

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

Anomaly Detection in Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Trajectories Using LSTM Autoencoder and Gaussian Mixture Model

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) technology has the potential to transform the transportation system. Although these new technologies have many advantages, the implementation raises significant concerns regarding safety, security, and privacy. Anomalies in sensor data caused by errors or cyberattacks can cause severe accidents. To address the issue, this study proposed an innovative anomaly detection algorithm, namely the LSTM Autoencoder with Gaussian Mixture Model (LAGMM). This model supports anomalous CAV trajectory detection in the real-time leveraging communication capabilities of CAV sensors. The LSTM Autoencoder is applied to generate low-rank representations and reconstruct errors for each input data point, while the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is employed for its strength in density estimation. The proposed model was jointly optimized for the LSTM Autoencoder and GMM simultaneously. The study utilizes realistic CAV data from a platooning experiment conducted for Cooperative Automated Research Mobility Applications (CARMAs). The experiment findings indicate that the proposed LAGMM approach enhances detection accuracy by 3% and precision by 6.4% compared to the existing state-of-the-art methods, suggesting a significant improvement in the field.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

One-Step Ahead Prediction of Thermal Mixing Tee Sensors with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks

High-temperature advanced reactors under development, such as sodium fast reactors (SFR) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCR), are expected to offer lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE) compared to existing light water reactor (LWR’s). In the existing light water reactors (LWR’s), operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses constitute the largest fraction of the total operating cost. Some of the O&M costs are related maintenance of sensors which can fail due to exposure to harsh environment in a reactor. The O&M costs of Advanced Reactor (AR)’s are expected to constitute a significant fraction of the total cost as well, because of high temperature and radiation level in AR are likely to cause material fatigue and premature failure of sensors and components. The O&M costs in AR’s could be reduced through integration of advanced informatics of performance-related sensors into a digital twin designed for reactor monitoring. For example, machine learning (ML) could be employed for real-time validation and correction of performance-related sensors, and reducing the number of performance-related physical sensor units through virtual sensing. As part of the effort, we investigate real-time validation of thermal hydraulic sensors through one-step ahead forecasting of sensor values using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN). The sensors are installed in a flow loop containing a thermal mixing tee, which is a common experimental model to study thermal fatigue in a thermal hydraulic loop. In addition, nonlinear transients generated in a thermal mixing tee constitute a good challenge data set for training and validation of ML algorithms. Sensors in this study include thermocouples, flow meters, and optical fibers for distributed temperature sensing. In one experiment, measurement data sets were obtained for a loop was filled with water, and in another experiment, measurements were performed on a loop filled with liquid metal Galinstan. We have also conducted preliminary investigation of one-step ahead prediction of fiber optics-based distributed temperature sensing with LSTM networks. In predicting fiber-based temperature measurements, we treated each gauge pitch of the fiber as an independent sensor. Accuracy of one-step ahead forecasting was estimated by calculating root mean square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor. RMSE’s for temperature sensors in water loop were, for the most part, lower than for the same sensors in Galinstan loop. The RMSE’s for flow meters were similar for both loops. The RMSE’s for distributed temperature measured with the fiber optic sensor were similar to those of the point sensors. Results of this study demonstrated the capability of LSTM one-step ahead forecasting with RMSE comparable to uncertainty in sensor measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

TLife-LSTM: Forecasting Future COVID-19 Progression with Topological Signatures of Atmospheric Conditions

Understanding the impact of atmospheric conditions on SARS-CoV2 is critical to model COVID-19 dynamics and sheds a light on the future spread around the world. Furthermore, geographic distri- butions of expected clinical severity of COVID-19 may be closely linked to prior history of respiratory diseases and changes in humidity, tem- perature, and air quality. In this context, we postulate that by tracking topological features of atmospheric conditions over time, we can provide a quanti?able structural distribution of atmospheric changes that are likely to be related to COVID-19 dynamics. As such, we apply the machinery of persistence homology on time series of graphs to extract topological signatures and to follow geographical changes in relative humidity and temperature. We develop an integrative machine learning framework named Topological Lifespan LSTM (TLife-LSTM) and test its predictive capabilities on forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV2 cases. We validate our framework using the number of con?rmed cases and hospitalization rates recorded in the states of Washington and California in the USA. Our results demonstrate the predictive potential of TLife-LSTM in forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 and modeling its complex spatio-temporal spread dynamics.

Gel, Yulia R.↗

L-VISP: LSTM Visualization for Interpretable Symptom Prediction in Patient Cohorts

Symptom modelling in head and neck cancer is challenged by the complexity of heterogeneous patient data, leading to an interest in deep learning approaches. Although Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have shown great results in patient risk prediction, their low interpretability requires data modellers to collaborate with clinical experts to validate the results. We present L-VISP, a human–machine solution that uses visual analytics for LSTM modelling in clinical research. L-VISP uses custom visual encodings to make multiple LSTM variants interpretable, supporting a full range of analysis, from understanding model operations and evaluating performance to interpreting results in a clinical context. We evaluate L-VISP with data modellers and a clinical oncologist and present the takeaways from this multidisciplinary collaboration.

LSTM modeling↗

MSU IETC LSTM Ethernet Decode (AN EDGE)

This research explores the ability of machine learning to perform signal separation of an Ethernet style encoded, full-duplex communication. Typical signal separation currently requires an active tap of the communication line, followed by a recombination and retransmission of the data. The purpose of this research is to study a passive approach to data acquisition from a full-duplex signal. The machine learning model used in this research is a long-short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN). The results show that the LSTM was largely successful in recreating the transmission signal from the measured data points, though the separated signals have not yet been tested using a decoding method.

Full Duplex Signals↗

Advancing Dynamic Modeling of Grid-Connected PV Inverter Using Bi-LSTM-Based AI Model

Power electronic converters (PECs) are widely used in modern power systems to facilitate the interconnection between various AC or DC sources and loads. Because of the extensive integration, the power system has grown into a more dynamic system in which the dynamics of the PECs must be adequately modeled. The paper presents a new bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) method for evaluating grid-connected inverter-based resources (IBR) dynamics. The method is tested using real hardware data from a grid -connected commercial inverter in laboratory experiments. Results show the Bi-LSTM model accurately reproduces the detailed IBR model's dynamics, even when the internal structure is unknown and parameters are unknown, preventing the disclosure of the manufacturer's confidential data.

Subedi, Sunil [ORNL] (ORCID:000000034069090X)↗

Day-Ahead Forecasting with Federated LSTM to Plan Energy Sharing in a Community Microgrid

Energy balancing in microgrids is a key enabler of resilience. Community microgrids located close to each other have the added benefit of networking and sharing surplus energy, if available. Such complex decision-making runs on optimization that requires reliable short-term (up to very-short-term) forecasts of energy generation and consumption for scheduling or trading. Each microgrid may also opt to not expose their sensitive data such as consumption patterns of individual businesses or residences. This paper investigates a federated approach to dayahead forecasting that trains naive long short-term memory (LSTM) at each business in a microgrid and aggregates weights at the microgrid controller using proximal regularization. This approach ensures that the controller has access only to energy surplus/deficit and not the actual generation or consumption values, avoiding unwanted exposure of sensitive data. A community microgrid in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico with 3 businesses is selected as a case study with a laboratory-scale computing setup. A central LSTM forecaster, where sensitive data from businesses are aggregated at the controller, is implemented as a baseline for qualifying the results. This work serves as a proof-of-concept for scaling the approach to networked and nested microgrids with more complex control options.

Sundararajan, Aditya [ORNL] (ORCID:000000033577854↗

Lightweight LSTM for CAN Signal Decoding

This paper describes an approach to identify undecoded Controller Area Network (CAN) data from one vehicle, based on the data similarity to previously decoded CAN data from another vehicle. Modern vehicles communicate data and signals from on-board sensors and controllers through the CAN bus. Networked sensors contain information such as wheel speeds, fuel gauges, turn signals, and radar signals. In the effort to use this information and make cars safer through human-in-the-loop CPS, signals on the CAN bus such as wheel speed and radar can be used to support the driver. However, data from the CAN bus are encoded and in some cases compressed, and different car manufacturers use different encoding schemes to represent data on the CAN bus. With hundreds of messages and thousands of possible encoding schemes to consider, it is laborious to identify the unique bits and encoding schemes that represent signals on each vehicle. In this study, we propose a method for training a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network on known radar signals from one vehicle manufacturer, a Toyota, and successfully apply the network to identify the encoding for radar signals on a different vehicle, a Honda. By augmenting the training dataset with varied encoding bit boundaries, a small and lightweight LSTM network can learn to recognize radar data across different encoding schemes. The results are an improvement on exhaustive-search algorithms and other methods previously used in the search for such signals.

Ngo, Paul↗

LSTM-Based Data Integration to Improve Snow Water Equivalent Prediction and Diagnose Error Sources

Accurate prediction of snow water equivalent (SWE) can be valuable for water resource managers. Recently, deep learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) have exhibited high accuracy in simulating hydrologic variables and can integrate lagged observations to improve prediction, but their benefits were not clear for SWE simulations. Here we tested an LSTM network with data integration (DI) for SWE in the western United States to integrate 30-day-lagged or 7-day-lagged observations of either SWE or satellite-observed snow cover fraction (SCF) to improve future predictions. SCF proved beneficial only for shallow-snow sites during snowmelt, while lagged SWE integration significantly improved prediction accuracy for both shallow- and deep-snow sites. The median Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) in temporal testing improved from 0.92 to 0.97 with 30-day-lagged SWE integration, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the difference between estimated and observed peak SWE values d max were reduced by 41% and 57%, respectively. DI effectively mitigated accumulated model and forcing errors that would otherwise be persistent. Moreover, by applying DI to different observations (30-day-lagged, 7-day-lagged), we revealed the spatial distribution of errors with different persistent lengths. For example, integrating 30-day-lagged SWE was ineffective for ephemeral snow sites in the southwestern United States, but significantly reduced monthly-scale biases for regions with stable seasonal snowpack such as high-elevation sites in California. These biases are likely attributable to large interannual variability in snowfall or site-specific snow redistribution patterns that can accumulate to impactful levels over time for nonephemeral sites. These results set up benchmark levels and provide guidance for future model improvement strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Analysis of ANN and LSTM Prediction Accuracy and Cooling Energy Savings through AHU-DAT Control in an Office Building

This paper proposes the optimal algorithm for controlling the HVAC system in the target building. Previous studies have analyzed pre-selected algorithms without considering the unique data characteristics of the target building, such as location, climate conditions, and HVAC system type. To address this, we compare the accuracy of cooling load prediction using ANN and LSTM algorithms, widely used in building energy research, to determine the optimal algorithm for HVAC control in the target building. We develop a simulation model calibrated with actual data to ensure data reliability and compare the energy consumption of the existing HVAC control method and the two algorithms-based methods. Results show that the ANN algorithm, with a CV(RMSE) of 12.7%, has a higher prediction accuracy than the LSTM algorithm, CV(RMSE) of 17.3%, making it a more suitable algorithm for HVAC control. Furthermore, implementing the ANN-based approach results in a 3.2% cooling energy reduction from the optimal control of Air Handling Unit (AHU) Discharge Air Temperature (DAT) compared to the fixed DAT at 12.8 °C in a representative day. This study demonstrates that ML-based HVAC system control can effectively reduce cooling energy consumption in HVAC systems, providing an effective strategy for energy conservation and improved HVAC system efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Synthetic Streamflow Datasets to Support Emulation of Water Allocations via LSTM

This archive is the data companion to the bonney_et-al_2026_erc metarepo which generates synthetic data, trains an LSTM model, and generates performance metrics on the trained model. While the generation of the synthetic data is fully reprodicible, it is a computationally expensive process. This data archive contains the synthetic datasets needed for training and testing an LSTM model and reproduction of figures and tables. In addition, supplemenatary data products generating and visualizing results is also included, such as geospatial data for the basin. Contents There are two high level directories: `WRAP_archive/` and `repo_data/`. The `WRAP_archive` directory contains compressed intermediate dataproducts from the dataset generation workflow (marked as "I_Dataset_Generation" in the metarepo). These data products are not required by any scripts in the metarepo, but they are archived as they are expensive to generate and may have useful information for other analyses. The `repo_data` directory contains the necessary data for reproducing the workflow in the metarepo and should be decompressed and moved into the top level of the metarepo. Additional details are provided in README.md.

drought↗

Automated Framework for Groundwater Monitoring Using DWT with LSTM and Transformers

Environmental monitoring is critical for safeguarding public health and ecological well-being. Traditional data structuring and workflow monitoring methods consume significant time and effort, hindering timely insights and effective decision-making. Our study addresses this challenge by presenting an AI framework that automates data cleaning, structuring, and modeling processes, specifically targeting applications in groundwater monitoring. By leveraging automation for data processing and model training, our framework establishes a novel and efficient paradigm for environmental monitoring, with its potential application to the vast network of over a hundred Department of Energy Environmental Management (DoE-EM) cleanup sites across the country. It analyzes data streams from a network of groundwater Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensors deployed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) for prediction modeling. This allows human experts to focus on analysis and decision-making, ultimately leading to better environmental outcomes.The framework employs multivariate time-series forecasting methods to study and model the behavior of varying chemical analytes. The continuous learning process is enabled by utilizing deep learning techniques. It allows the framework to become more nuanced in its analysis over time, adapting to the specific characteristics of the environmental site and the evolving nature of contaminant behavior. Deep learning models known for sequence modeling, LSTM, and Transformers are employed for time series forecasting. Data processing and structuring are essential components significantly impacting the final model's performance. This hypothesis was proven by presenting a comparative analysis of model performance with processed and unprocessed data. The feature engineering approach utilized was the Discrete Wavelet Transform, which works well with time series data.

Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT)↗