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At least 19 records

JUSTIFI: Open-Source Software for Identifying and Quantifying Non-Energy Benefits

The integration of Non-Energy Benefits (NEBs) into energy efficiency initiatives is essential for operational excellence in manufacturing. This presentation and software demonstration explore how quantifying NEBs such as improved safety, increased quality, and enhanced productivity, can strengthen business cases for energy investments, leading to better payback periods and alignment with organizational goals. We introduce JUSTIFI, a free, open-source software by the U.S. Department of Energy that aids in the measurement of NEBs and enhances understanding of their impact on Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and return on investment (ROI). JUSTIFI features an intuitive interface for identifying NEBs, customizable reporting tools, and comprehensive system cataloging, empowering companies to effectively communicate the value of energy efficiency projects. By leveraging this innovative tool, organizations can better navigate energy efficiency assessments and drive support for their energy management initiatives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Improving Performance via Energy Efficiency JUSTIFI: Open-Source Software for Identifying and Quantifying Non-Energy Benefits

Energy efficiency is pivotal to achieving operational excellence, as it enhances value while reducing waste. This presentation explores the integration of non-energy benefits (NEBs) into energy efficiency projects, which can lead to risk reduction, value creation, and cost savings. By quantifying NEBs - such as improved safety, decreased pollution, and increased productivity - companies can strengthen their business cases for energy investments, ultimately improving payback periods and aligning with strategic goals. Designed for a diverse audience, from trained auditors to novices in energy assessments, we have developed open-source software called JUSTIFI, NEB finding methodology, and training materials which build on existing frameworks and leverages resources from the U.S. Department of Energy and Better Plants energy system analysis software suite such as MEASUR. This work aims to maximize ROI through NEB identification, utilizing tools like JUSTIFI and the NEBs Discovery Protocol.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Building the Business Case with JUSTIFI: Quantifying Multiple Benefits in the Automotive Industry

The Michigan State University Industrial Training and Assessment Center (MSU ITAC) conducted a pilot study at an automotive parts manufacturer in Michigan. The study identified energy-productivity enhancements through the application of the JUSTIFI software. Key recommendations included replacing six inefficient rooftop units (RTUs) with a new air rotational unit. By quantifying operational savings for this project, the expected payback period went from 6.6 years to 1.4 years. Additionally, the installation of variable frequency drives (VFDs) on condenser tower motors was suggested. By including all operational benefits, the payback period was reduced from 8.2 years to 1.3 years. This comprehensive analysis aims to bolster the manufacturer's goals of reducing energy while enhancing overall operational efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Electrochemically Determined and Structurally Justified Thermochemistry of H atom Transfer on Ti-Oxo Nodes of the Colloidal Metal–Organic Framework Ti-MIL-125

Titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) has long been employed as (photo)electrodes for reactions relevant to energy storage and renewable energy synthesis. Proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reactions with equimolar amounts of protons and electrons at the TiO 2 surface or within the bulk structure lie at the center of these reactions. Because a proton and an electron are thermochemically equivalent to an H-atom, these reactions are essentially H-atom transfer reactions. Thermodynamics of H-atom transfer has a complex dependence on the synthetic protocol and chemical history of the electrode, the reaction medium, and many others; together, these complications preclude the understanding of the H-atom transfer thermochemistry with atomic-level structural knowledge. Herein, we report our success in employing open-circuit potential (E OCP ) measurements to quantitatively determine the H-atom transfer thermochemistry at structurally well-defined Ti-oxo clusters within a colloidally stabilized metal–organic framework (MOFs), Ti-MIL-125. The free energy to transfer H-atom, Ti 3+ O–H bond dissociation free energy (BDFE), was measured to be 68(2) kcal mol -1 . To the best of our understanding, this is the first report on using E OCP measurements to quantify thermochemistry on any MOFs. The proton topology, the structural change upon the redox reaction, and BDFE values were further quantitatively corroborated using computational simulations. Furthermore, comparisons of the E OCP -derived BDFEs of Ti-MIL-125 to similar parameters in the literature suggest that E OCP should be the preferred method for quantitatively accurate BDFE calculations. Here, the reported success in employing E OCP for nanosized Ti- MIL-125 should lay the ground for thermochemical measurements of other colloidal systems, which are otherwise challenging. Implications of these measurements on Ti-MIL-125 as an H-atom acceptor in chemical reactions and comparisons with other MOFs/metal oxides are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

White Paper to Justify the Use of Strip Effluent in the Defense Waste Processing Facility During Slurry Mix Evaporator Processing

At the request of Savannah River Remediation (SRR), a white paper was written to assess whether it would be acceptable to process Strip Effluent (SE) in both the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) and Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) for the nitric-glycolic acid flowsheet. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) experimental data and DWPF Sludge Batch 9 (SB9) process data was reviewed, looking at batches which included Precipitate Reactor Feed Tank (PRFT) and/or Strip Effluent Feed Tank (SEFT) feeds that led to long processing times. These batches were reviewed looking for processing problems such as melter feed trips, foamovers, heating rod or steam coil fouling, missed Reduction/Oxidation (REDOX) targets, and other process anomalies.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Socioeconomically-inspired modeling to justify use of fine-grain mobility data

When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Molecular Ecology of Guerrero Negro: Justifying the Need for Environmental Genomics

The record of life on the only planet where it is known to exist is contained in the biogeochemical processes that organisms catalyze for their survival, in the compounds that they produce, and in their phylogenetic (evolutionary) relationships to each other. We manipulated sulfate and nutrient concentrations in intact microbial mats over periods of time up to a year. The objectives of the manipulations were: 1) characterize the diversity of process-associated functional genes; 2) understand environmental conditions leading to shifts in microbial guilds; 3) monitor/identify competitive responses of organisms sharing a metabolic niche. Characterization of functional genes associated with carbon (mcrA), nitrogen (nifH, nirK) and sulfur (dsrkB) cycling performed to date provided insight into the diversity and metabolic potential of the system; however, we only identified broad scale correlations between gene abundances and changes in mat physiology. For instance, increases in methane production by mats subjected to lowered sulfate and salinity concentrations were correlated with an observed increase in abundance of hydrogenotroph-like mcrA genes. However, due to low sequence similarity to any cultured isolates, phylogenetic associations only allow order level taxonomic commentary, preventing any associations being made on the cellular level. In each of the genes characterized from these experiments, a significant portion of sequences recovered show minimal phylogenetic affiliation to cultured organisms, preventing any understanding of inter-community dynamics and the functional capacities of these unknown organisms. Environmental genomics may provide insight into mat systems by allowing the correlation of functional genes with phylogenetic markers.

Smith, Jason M.↗

Toward Justifiable Trust in Autonomous Systems Incorporating Human Knowledge in Autonomous Systems through Machine Learning

Trust in Autonomous Systems is largely about humans trusting the decisions made by autonomous systems. This trust can be increased through learning from domain experts. In particular, autonomous systems can learn offline from past mission operations before conducting any operations of its own. Additionally, autonomous systems can learn online by obtaining human feedback during operations. We will discuss several classes of machine learning methods and our application of them to autonomous systems. The first class of methods is anomaly detection, which uses operations data to identify examples of anomalous operations. The second class of methods is inverse reinforcement learning, also known as apprenticeship learning, that takes past operations data as input and yields a controller that is able to duplicate the operations described by the data. The third class is active learning, which identifies examples on which the model is most uncertain and requests domain expert feedback.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗

Dude Where's My Stars: A Novel Topologically Justified Approach to Star Tracking

In this paper, we consider two novel approaches to celestial navigation for spacecraft. Determining attitude without any prior knowledge using star tracking is known to be a difficult task, particularly given the computational complexity and the many potential sources of misinformation. We consider localization by optimizing matching parameters without explicit star identification in a computationally tractable manner. This is achieved using the mathematical tools of topological data analysis (TDA) and cellular sheaves to study the geometry and distribution of cataloged stars. A framework is gained that enhances the statistical approach to noise handling and false star detection, and heterogeneous sensor fusion. Finally, we discuss confidence bounds and minimum information requirements for successful operation.

Sheaf theory↗

Parsimonious Inference Information-Theoretic Foundations for a Complete Theory of Machine Learning (CIS-LDRD Project 218313 Final Technical Report)

This work examines how we may cast machine learning within a complete Bayesian framework to quantify and suppress explanatory complexity from first principles. Our investigation into both the philosophy and mathematics of rational belief leads us to emphasize the critical role of Bayesian inference in learning well-justified predictions within a rigorous and complete extended logic. The Bayesian framework allows us to coherently account for evidence in the learned plausibility of potential explanations. As an extended logic, the Bayesian paradigm regards probability as a notion of degrees of truth. In order to satisfy critical properties of probability as a coherent measure, as well as maintain consistency with binary propositional logic, we arrive at Bayes' Theorem as the only justifiable mechanism to update our beliefs to account for empiracle evidence. Yet, in the machine learning paradigm, where explanations are unconstrained algorithmic abstractions, we arrive at a critical challenge: Bayesian inference requires prior belief. Conventional approaches fail to yield a consistent framework in which we could compare prior plausibility among the infinities of potential choices in learning architectures. The difficulty of articulating well-justified prior belief over abstract models is the provinence of memorization in traditional machine learning training practices. This becomes exceptionally problematic in the context of limited datasets, when we wish to learn justifiable predictions from only a small amount of data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Bayesian View on the Dr. Evil Scenario

Abstract In Defeating Dr. Evil with Self-Locating Belief , Adam Elga proposes and defends a principle of indifference for self-locating beliefs: if an individual is confident that his world contains more than one individual who is in a state subjectively indistinguishable from his own, then he should assign equal credences to the hypotheses that he is any one of these individuals. Through a sequence of thought experiments, Elga in effect claims that he can derive the credence function that should apply in such situations, thus justifying his principle of indifference. Here we argue, using a Bayesian approach, that Elga’s reasoning is circular: in analyzing the third of his thought experiments, he uses an assertion that is justifiable only if one assumes, from the start, the principle of indifference that he is attempting to justify. We agree with Elga that the assumption of equal credences is a very reasonable principle, in the absence of any reason to assign unequal credences, but we do not agree that the equality of credences can be so derived.

Azhar, Feraz↗

Commercial building HVAC demand flexibility with model predictive control: Field demonstration and literature insights

Model Predictive Control (MPC) for building Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems is beginning to gain traction in the market, with a few controls companies incorporating it into their product offerings. However, it remains difficult to assess whether the energy cost savings are enough to justify the cost of MPC implementation for a particular building, given the limited number of reported demonstrations. For small commercial and residential buildings with relatively uniform systems, standardized approaches can help lower implementation costs. In contrast, for large buildings or district systems, the potential magnitude of cost savings could justify more customized solutions. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of MPC becomes more challenging for medium and large commercial buildings, where a one-size-fits-all solution may not be suitable, and the potential energy cost savings may be insufficient to justify a customized solution. To make MPC technology more appealing, incorporating additional value streams beyond energy efficiency alone can significantly increase its attractiveness. One such revenue stream is demand flexibility, in response to dynamic electricity prices, where MPC can leverage the thermal mass of the building to shift the load and support the grid. Building on an extensive literature review of MPC field studies focused on cost savings and demand flexibility, this paper presents the results of implementing MPC control in a large office building HVAC system in Berkeley, CA. Four different dynamic electricity price profiles were integrated into the MPC objective function to shift building demand while maintaining comfort, and field testing was performed with each price profile across four seasons. The results show potential for 40–65 % demand decrease percentage and up to 61 % annual cost savings compared to the existing rule-based control strategy, under the tested dynamic price scenarios. This paper also presents a sensitivity analysis on the cost savings with respect to the price profile variability, discusses the implementation effort for the price-responsive MPC, and compares the cost savings found in this study to those found in literature on the basis of dynamic price variability, or so-called Electricity Price Relative Standard Deviation.

Zanetti, Ettore↗

Advanced Concepts

Before there is a funded space mission, there must be a present need for the mission. Space science and exploration are expensive, and without a well-defined and justifiable need, no one is going to commit significant funding for any space endeavor. However, as discussed in Chapter 1, applications of space technology and many and broad, hence there are many ways to determine and establish a mission need. Robotic science missions are justified by their science return. To be selected for flight, questions like these must be addressed: What is the science question that needs answering, and will the proposed mission be the most cost-effective way to answer it? Why does answering the question require an expensive space flight, instead of some ground-based alternative? If the question can only be answered by flying in space, then why is this approach better than other potential approaches? How much will it cost? And is the technology required to answer the question in hand and ready to use? If not, then how much will it cost and how long will it take to mature the technology to a usable level? There are also many ways to justify human exploration missions, including science return, technology advancement, as well as intangible reasons, such as national pride. Nonetheless, many of the questions that need answering, are similar to those for robotic science missions: Where are the people going, why, and will the proposed mission be the most cost-effective way to get there? What is the safest method to achieve the goal? How much will it cost? And is the technology required to get there and keep the crew alive in hand and ready to use? If not, then how much will it cost and how long will it take to mature the technology to a usable level? Another reason for some groups sending spacecraft into space is for profit. Telecommunications, geospatial imaging, and tourism are examples of proven, market-driven space missions and applications. For this specific set of users, the outstanding questions include: What is the product or service? Who will buy it? How can it be profitable? What is the most cost-effective solution to fielding the product or service? And, of course, is the technology in-hand or is there advanced development required? In order to answer these questions, the responsibility falls to a specially-skilled set of engineers and scientists who understand how to assess the readiness of new technologies.

Johnson, Les↗

THERMAL/STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF THE AXION QUANTUM METROLOGY CAVITY AND ITS COMPONENTS

This research was centered around maximizing the capability to cool dielectric material within a containment unit, or Photonic Band Gap (PBG) cavity, designed for detecting axion dark matter and identifying the unit’s thermal properties. There are multiple types of PBG cavities, but the latest version that axion researchers wish to use has been theorized to contain possible issues related to its thermal properties. Thermal conductivity is an issue with the dielectric material because it is made from alumina which is highly insulative. This is important since the research is being done in a cryogenic environment and the thermal noise affects the quantum bit used for detecting the axion to photon conversion process. Therefore, any improvements to this unit should be justified and implemented but are not entirely limited to thermal contact related aspects of PBG cavities. A prospect of using sapphire in place of alumina also exists, but this is a more expensive, less tested, and more elusive material to justify the creation of a full dielectric structure out of sapphire. Thermal aspects of the cavity were analyzed using finite element method (FEM) and an experiment designed to test different thermal joint materials. FEM was used to check the contraction of the cavity during cooling, the contact quality between the dielectric material and cavity wall, theheat flow rate through the assembly, and helps visualize the cavity’s reaction to different design changes. A simple comparison between thermal conductivity curves justified the usage of sapphire over alumina from a thermal property point of view. Thus, the method of experimentation had an additional dielectric material, sapphire, to test with and compare to alumina. The thermal test identified which material is best to use for a thermal joint but also simultaneously found the conductance of the joint and dielectric material as well as an estimate for what the temperature is inside the larger scale cavity since a thermometer cannot be placed inside the PBG when it cools. Initially, the cavity simulation was tested for structural deformation properties and stress distribution since it is made of copper which contracts heavily in comparison to most other materials. The reduction in volume of the cavity was less than anticipated which gave more room for a possible usage of a modified thermal joint for additional contact area and higher conductivity.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗