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This presentation describes an algorithm for applying machine learning to branching to speed up the solution of integer optimization problems. These problems are challenging and solved multiple times a day by power systems operators. We show that our approach speeds up a widely used open-source optimization solver.
In the advancing field of machine learning, balancing accuracy, interpretability, and privacy represents a significant challenge. The problem is exacerbated by the widespread deployment of pre-trained models locally in diverse applications, which could lead to various amounts of privacy leakage. Conventional Differential Privacy strategies, in which uniform noises are applied to model gradients, guarantee data privacy at the expense of accuracy and interpretability. This paper introduces a Feature-Sensitive Adaptive Differential Privacy (FADP) framework with a unique noise-adding strategy. Noises are adaptively added based on feature importance clustering, where important features are considered for interpretability. By employing a unique masking technique, FADP selectively preserves crucial features with minimal noise interference, maintaining accuracy while enhancing interpretability. The FADP framework addresses the limitations of traditional DP methods by preserving critical channels and improving interpretability — a vital requirement in machine learning applications that demand transparency in model decisions. Through comprehensive testing, FADP is shown to balance the trade-offs among accuracy, privacy, and interpretability, marking a substantial advancement in the field of privacy-preserving machine learning.
Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.
Developing methods to identify mineral species confidently and rapidly from Raman spectral analysis is critical to numerous fields. Traditionally, analysis relies on pattern matching the Raman spectrum of an unknown dataset with a supporting library of well-characterized spectral data, which may prove difficult for environmental samples that are poorly crystalline or phase mixtures. Here, we developed interpretable machine learning models that can classify uranium minerals by secondary oxyanion chemistry and other physicochemical properties based solely on Raman spectra. This new ML method produces a mineral profile of physical and chemical properties for an unknown sample and can rapidly classify or identify unknown minerals from Raman data, without the need for an exact pattern match in a spectral library. Training models are validated by 1. Strong correlation of high confidence model regions with published spectroscopic assignments and 2. Correct classification of a mineral not present in training data. Training data are from the Compendium of Uranium Raman and Infrared Experimental Spectra and available crystallographic information files within the open-source Smart Spectral Matching scientific framework. Physically meaningful classifier models can rapidly identify key structural and chemical information about unknown uranium minerals and the overall methodology is broadly applicable for mineral phases.
Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.
Manipulating the dispersive characteristics of vibrational waves is beneficial for many applications, e.g., high-precision instruments. architected hierarchical phononic materials have sparked promise tunability of elastodynamic waves and vibrations over multiple frequency ranges. In this article, hierarchical unit-cells are obtained, where features at each length scale result in a band gap within a targeted frequency range. Our novel approach, the ‘‘hierarchical unit-cell template method,’’ is an interpretable machine-learning approach that uncovers global unit-cell shape/topology patterns corresponding to predefined band-gap objectives. A scale-separation effect is observed where the coarse-scale band-gap objective is mostly unaffected by the fine-scale features despite the closeness of their length scales, thus enabling an efficient hierarchical algorithm. Moreover, the hierarchical patterns revealed are not predefined or self-similar hierarchies as common in current hierarchical phononic materials. Furthermore, our approach offers a flexible and efficient method for the exploration of new regions in the hierarchical design space, extracting minimal effective patterns for inverse design in applications targeting multiple frequency ranges.
Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.
As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.
Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.
Anion exchange membranes (AEMs) play a vital role in the performance of water electrolyzers and fuel cells, yet their discovery and optimization remain challenging due to the complexity of structure–property relationships. In this study, we introduce a machine learning framework that leverages conditional graph neural networks (cGNNs) and descriptor-based models and a hybrid graph neural network (HGARE) to predict and interpret ionic conductivity. The descriptor-based pipeline employs principal component analysis (PCA), ablation, and SHAP analysis to identify factors governing anion conductivity, revealing electronic, topological, and compositional descriptors as key contributors. Beyond prediction, dimensionality reduction and clustering are performed by employing t-SNE and KMeans as well as SOM, which reveal distinct membranes clusters, some of which were enriched with high anion conductivity. Among graph-based approaches, the graph convolutional (GCN) achieved strong predictive performance, while the Hybrid Graph Autoencoder-Regressor Ensemble (HGARE) achieved the highest accuracy. Additionally, atom-level saliency maps from GCN provide spatial explanations for conductive behavior, revealing the importance of polarizable and flexible regions. This work contributes to the accelerated and data-driven design of high-performance AEMs.
Background: Future missions to ocean worlds, such as Enceladus and Europa, will attempt to characterize the subsurface seawater chemistry and assess the potential for life. Such missions will be equipped with capabilities to precisely measure volatile isotopes in plumes, atmospheres, and exospheres. Motivation: While large isotopic fractionations can indicate a biological source, there are signatures resulting from abiotic geochemical processes that mimic isotopic biosignatures. While machine learning (ML) has the potential to disentangle competing effects and biotic mimicry, high-dimensional isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) data is likely to contain noise/irrelevant features and involve complex statistical interactions that make human inference and interpretation difficult. Further, ML predictions with as far-reaching implications as an extraterrestrial biosignature on an ocean world requires the use of interpretable models (i.e., not “black box” models) with physically and mathematically meaningful feature spaces along with false positive diagnostics. Methods: We use volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to validate an ML approach to provide biogeochemical context for biosignature detection. We employ a feature selection method called nearest-neighbor projected distance regression (NPDR) that detects statistical interactions and helps elucidate the mechanisms of the Random Forest classification models. Results: We train and validate predictive ML models on volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to predict major salt components (e.g., MgSO4, NaHCO3), pH, ionic strength, and the presence of biosignatures. Features derived from IRMS measurements are augmented with extracted time-series features. Our results show high test accuracy and interpretability, which is increased by interaction network visualization, sample-wise variable importance scores, and single-sample class probability estimates. We demonstrate an ML mission software solution that triggers autonomous data transmission and biogeochemical sample prediction.
Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) of volatiles (e.g., CO 2 ) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection for future missions to ocean worlds (OW) such as Europa and Enceladus. Machine learning (ML) methods for IRMS data could enable science autonomy by onboard prediction of seawater chemistry and biosignature presence. However, ML models are likely to be complex and involve statistical interactions between features (variables), which can make predictions seem opaque and enigmatic. For ML predictions as significant as extraterrestrial biosignatures, we must place extraordinary confidence in models. It is therefore essential that these models make interpretable predictions (i.e., human-understandable) and include false-prediction diagnostics. We achieve high accuracy and interpretability in ML biosignature and seawater chemistry models for OW through a nearest-neighbors feature selection tool that detects statistical interactions between predictors, constructs interaction networks for visualization of selected features working together to make a prediction, and reports single-sample feature importance scores for false-detection diagnostics. Here we develop a novel single-sample nearest-neighbors projected distance regression(ssNPDR) feature selection method that improves upon existing single-sample algorithms through the inclusion of statistical interactions while providing false-prediction diagnostics for ML models.
Aptamers are oligonucleotide receptors that bind to their targets with high affinity. Here, we consider aptamers comprised of single-stranded DNA that undergo target-binding-induced conformational changes, giving rise to unique secondary and tertiary structures. Given a specific aptamer primary sequence, there are well-established computational tools (notably mfold) to predict the secondary structure via free energy minimization algorithms. While mfold generates secondary structures for individual sequences, there is a need for a high-throughput process whereby thousands of DNA structures can be predicted in real-time for use in an interactive setting, when combined with aptamer selections that generate candidate pools that are too large to be experimentally interrogated. We developed a new Python code for high-throughput aptamer secondary structure determination (GMfold). GMfold uses subgraph matching methods to group aptamer candidates by secondary structure similarities. We also improve an open-source code, SeqFold, to incorporate subgraph matching concepts. We represent each secondary structure as a lowest-energy bipartite subgraph matching of the DNA graph to itself. These new tools enable thousands of DNA sequences to be compared based on their secondary structures, using machine-learning algorithms. This process is advantageous when analyzing sequences that arise from aptamer selections via systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment (SELEX). This work is a building block for future machine-learning-informed DNA-aptamer selection processes to identify aptamers with improved target affinity and selectivity and advance aptamer biosensors and therapeutics.
Wire-feed additive manufacturing (WFAM) produces superalloys with complex thermal cycles and unique microstructures, often requiring optimized heat treatments. To address this challenge, we present a hybrid approach that combines high-throughput experiments, precipitation simulation, and machine learning to design effective aging conditions for the WFAM Haynes 282 superalloy. Our results demonstrate that the γ’ radius is the critical microstructural feature for strengthening Haynes 282 during post-heat treatment compared with the matrix composition and γ’ volume fraction. New aging conditions at 770°C for 50 hours and 730°C for 200 hours were discovered based on the machine learning model and were applied to enhance yield strength, bringing it on par with the wrought counterpart. This approach has significant implications for future AM alloy production, enabling more efficient and effective heat treatment design to achieve desired properties.
GOAL: use neighboring systems to detect partial outages
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