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NASA NTRS1990

New interplanetary proton fluence model

A new predictive engineering model for the interplanetary fluence of protons with above 10 MeV and above 30 MeV is described. The data set used is a combination of observations made from the earth's surface and from above the atmosphere between 1956 and 1963 and observations made from spacecraft in the vicinity of earth between 1963 and 1985. The data cover a time period three times as long as the period used in earlier models. With the use of this data set the distinction between 'ordinary proton events' and 'anomalously large events' made in earlier work disappears. This permitted the use of statistical analysis methods developed for 'ordinary events' on the entire data set. The greater than 10 MeV fluences at 1 AU calculated with the new model are about twice those expected on the basis of models now in use. At energies above 30 MeV, the old and new models agree. In contrast to earlier models, the results do not depend critically on the fluence from any one event and are independent of sunspot number. Mission probability curves derived from the fluence distribution are presented.

Feynman, Joan↗

NASA NTRS1993

Interplanetary proton fluence model - JPL 1991

We describe an updated predictive engineering model for the interplanetary fluence of protons with energies respectively greater than 1, 4, 10, 30, and 60 MeV. This has been the first opportunity to derive a model from a data set that has been collected in space over a long enough period of time to produce a valid sample of solar proton events. The model provides a quantitative basis for estimating the exposures to solar protons of spacecraft during missions of varying length and of surfaces and atmospheres of solar system objects. The data sets contain several major proton events comparable to the 1972 event. For the cases of the over 10 and over 30 MeV particles, the fluences are somewhat lower than in our earlier model No over 1, over 4, and over 60 MeV proton fluence models have been published in the literature previously. We present our results in a convenient graphical form which may be used to calculate the 1 AU fluence expected at a given confidence level as a function of the length of the exposure. A method of extending this estimate to other heliocentric distances is described.

Feynman, J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Interplanetary Proton Model: JPL 1991

This study was carried out to increase the acuracy and energy range of predictive models of interplanetary proton fluences. Such an estimate is often needed when spacecraft spend a signigicant amount of time in the interplanetary environmnet.

Interplanetary Fluence↗

NASA NTRS1975

SOLPRO: A computer code to calculate probabilistic energetic solar proton fluences

A code was developed for the calculation of interplanetary solar proton fluences at 1 AU for the active years 1977 to 1983. The fluences are presented as functions of mission duration tau, energy threshold E, and confidence level Q. For a given combination of tau and Q, the routine determines whether ordinary or anomalously large events are to be considered, and in the latter case, the number of anomalously large events that are predicted by probabilistic theory for the specified mission duration. The code is described in detail. A listing and sample calculations are included.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Probabilities for the peak flux and fluence of energetic solar protons incident on interplanetary spacecraft

Energetic protons injected into interplanetary space in solar particle events can interfere with spacecraft operations and experiments and can cause permanent degradation of some components. For future long term interplanetary and planetary missions, techniques were developed which use solar particle event data from 1956 through 1970 to predict the probability of exceeding any value of peak proton intensity or mission proton fluence. Dependences on proton energy (near 10 to 100 MeV), heliocentric distance, and phase of the solar cycle are included. The techniques are described and applied to the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 mission.

Divine, N.↗

NASA NTRS1975

A search for solar flare positrons

The detection of solar gamma-ray line emission and observations of the isotopes H2, H-3, and He-3 in solar cosmic rays provide direct evidence for the occurrence of high energy nuclear reactions in solar flare events. Appreciable numbers of other reaction products, including positrons with energies near about 1 MeV, should also be produced in such events. We have searched for positrons in the 0.16-1.6 MeV energy interval during 5 H-3 rich solar particle events. Based on calculations of positron and He-3 production at the sun, and using a simplified model of interplanetary propagation, we might expect comparable fluences of positrons and He-3 to be observed. Summing over these 5 events, we find the 0.16 to 1.6 MeV positron fluence to be a maximum of about 10% of the He-3 fluence with more tnan 1 MeV/nuc. This suggests that other processes, such as preferential trapping by the solar magnetic field, may be important.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Solar flare nuclear gamma-rays and interplanetary proton events

Gamma-ray line (GRL) and solar energetic proton (SEP) events observed from February 1980 through January 1985 are compared in order to substantiate and better characterize the lack of correlation between GRL fluences and SEP event peak fluxes. The scatter plot of SEP event peak flux vs. GRL fluence is presented, and the ratio of 'solar' to 'interplanetary', about 10 MeV protons, is presented. It is shown that, while even large SEP events can originate in flares lacking detectable GRL emission, the converse case of flares with a significant GRL line fluence by lacking protons in space is rare. The ratio R of the number of about 10 MeV protons that produce GRL emission at the flare site to the number of about 10 MeV protons detected in space can vary from event to event by four orders of magnitude. There is a clear tendency for impulsive flares to have larger values of R than long-duration flares, where the flare time scale is given by the e-folding decay time of the associated soft X-ray emission.

Cliver, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Further observations of protons resulting from the decay of neutrons ejected by solar flares

The solar flare of 1984 April 24 produced a large gamma ray fluence with energy 2MeV. The time profile of the interplanetary flux from this flare indicates the presence of decaying solar neutrons. This makes a total of three neutron flares so far observed by this method. The three flares are used to place constraints on the fluence and spectra of neutrons emitted by the Sun.

Evenson, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

A study of single event upsets in static RAM's

Several types of CMOS static random access memories (RAMs) have been tested in a cyclotron for susceptibility to single event upsets and latchup such as might occur in earth orbit or interplanetary space. No upsets have been observed for neutron fluences of 10 to the 11th n/sq cm and higher or proton fluences of 10 to the 9th protons/sq cm.

Price, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Deep-space radiation exposure analysis for solar cycle XXI (1975-1986)

Ionizing radiation exposures and associated dosimetric quantities are evaluated for the 11-year solar cycle ending in 1986. Solar flare fluences for the 55 largest flares occurring during the cycle are superimposed on the Galactic cosmic ray flux. Published summaries of flare data from the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP)-7 and IMP-8 satellites are used that include flares whose integrated fluences are greater than 10 to the 7th protons/sq cm for energies in excess of 10 MeV. A standard cosmic ray environment model for ion flux values at solar minimum and maximum is invoked with an assumed sinusoidal variation between the lower and upper limits. The radiation shielding analysis is carried out for equivalent water-shield thicknesses between 2 and 15 g/sq cm. Results are expressed in terms of cumulative incurred dose equivalents for deep-space missions lasting between 3 months and 3 years. It was found that medium-to-large flare contributions are of greatest importance for the shorter term missions, while the Galactic component dominates for the longer duration missions.

Nealy, John E.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Solar energetic particle events: Statistical modelling and prediction

Solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can have a significant effect on the design and operation of earth orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft. In relation to this, the calculation of proton fluences and fluxes are considered, describing the current state of the art in statistical modeling. A statistical model that can be used for the estimation of integrated proton fluences for different mission durations of greater than one year is reviewed. The gaps in the modeling capabilities of the SEPE environment, such as a proton flux model, alpha particle and heavy ion models and solar cycle variations are described together with the prospects for the prediction of events using neural networks.

Gabriel, S. B.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP)--Cumulative and Worst-Case Event Fluences

The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary and polar orbits and for interplanetary missions. Designers of spacecraft and mission planners are required to assess the performance of microelectronic systems under a variety of conditions. A number of useful approaches exist for predicting information about solar proton event fluences and, to a lesser extent, peak fluxes. This includes the cumulative fluence over the course of a mission, the fluence of a worst-case event during a mission, the frequency distribution of event fluences, and the frequency distribution of large peak fluxes. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the sponsorship of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program, have developed a new model for predicting cumulative solar proton fluences and worst-case solar proton events as functions of mission duration and user confidence level. This model is called the Emission of Solar Protons (ESP) model.

Xapsos, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP): Cumulative and Worst Case Event Fluences

Xapsos, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The mean ionic charge state of solar energetic Fe ions above 200 MeV per nucleon

We have analyzed the geomagnetic transmission of solar energetic Fe ions at approximately 200-600 MeV per nucleon during the great solar energetic particle (SEP) events of 1989 September-October. By comparing fluences from the Chicago charged-particle telescope on IMP-8 in interplanetary space and from NRL's Heavy Ions in Space (HIIS) experiment aboard the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in low-Earth orbit, we obtain a mean ionic charge (Q(sub 3)) = 14.2 +/- 1.4. This result is significantly lower than (Q) observed at approximately 1 MeV per nucleon in impulsive, He-3 rich SEP events, indicating that neither acceleration at the flare site nor flare-heated plasma significantly contributes to the high-energy Fe ions we observe. But it agrees well with the (Q) observed in gradual SEP events at approximately 1 MeV per nucleon, in which ions are accelerated by shocks driven by fast coronal mass ejections, and hence shows that particles are accelerated to very high energies in this way. We also note apparent differences between solar wind and SEP charge state distributions, which may favor a coronal (rather than solar wind) seed population or may suggest additional ionization in the ambient shock-region plasma.

Tylka, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Interplanetary charged particle environments

Current state-of-the-art knowledge of the solar wind, solar particle events, and galactic cosmic rays is reviewed for the development of space vehicle design criteria based on these interplanetary environments. These criteria are described quantitatively in terms of intensity, flux and fluence, and their dependences on time, position and energy, and the associated probabilities and related parameters, for electrons, protons and other ions.

Divine, T. N.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Preliminary estimates of radiation exposures for manned interplanetary missions from anomalously large solar flare events

Preliminary estimates of radiation exposures for manned interplanetary missions resulting from anomalously large solar flare events are presented. The calculations use integral particle fluences for the February 1956, November 1960, and August 1972 events as inputs into the Langley Research Center nucleon transport code BRYNTRN. This deterministic code transports primary and secondary nucleons (protons and neutrons) through any number of layers of target material of arbitrary thickness and composition. Contributions from target nucleus fragmentation and recoil are also included. Estimates of 5 cm depth doses and dose equivalents in tissue are presented behind various thicknesses of aluminum, water, and composite aluminum/water shields for each of the three solar flare events.

Townsend, Lawrence W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Large solar flare radiation shielding requirements for manned interplanetary missions

Estimates are given for the radiation shielding thicknesses required to protect astronauts on interplanetary missions from the effects of large solar flares, on the basis of the integral proton fluences for several past solar particle events. NASA-Langley's nucleon transport deterministic computer code, BRYNTRN, is used to transport primary protons and secondary protons and neutrons through any number of layers of target material of arbitrary thickness and composition. The results of each flare are presented as estimates of dose equivalents to the skin, eyes, and blood-forming organs behind various thicknesses of aluminum shielding.

Townsend, Lawrence W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Proton Fluence Prediction Models

Many spacecraft anomalies are caused by positively charged high energy particles impinging on the vehicle and its component parts. Here we review the current knowledge of the interplanetary particle environment in the energy ranges that are most important for these effects, 10 to 100 MeV/amu. The emphasis is on the particle environment at 1 AU. State-of-the-art engineering models are briefly described along with comments on the future work required in this field.

Proton Fluence Prediction Models spacecraft anomal↗