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Results for “Integrated mean squared error”

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Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

Scott, D. W.

A critical analysis of the accuracy of several numerical techniques for combustion kinetic rate equations

A detailed analysis of the accuracy of several techniques recently developed for integrating stiff ordinary differential equations is presented. The techniques include two general-purpose codes EPISODE and LSODE developed for an arbitrary system of ordinary differential equations, and three specialized codes CHEMEQ, CREK1D, and GCKP4 developed specifically to solve chemical kinetic rate equations. The accuracy study is made by application of these codes to two practical combustion kinetics problems. Both problems describe adiabatic, homogeneous, gas-phase chemical reactions at constant pressure, and include all three combustion regimes: induction, heat release, and equilibration. To illustrate the error variation in the different combustion regimes the species are divided into three types (reactants, intermediates, and products), and error versus time plots are presented for each species type and the temperature. These plots show that CHEMEQ is the most accurate code during induction and early heat release. During late heat release and equilibration, however, the other codes are more accurate. A single global quantity, a mean integrated root-mean-square error, that measures the average error incurred in solving the complete problem is used to compare the accuracy of the codes. Among the codes examined, LSODE is the most accurate for solving chemical kinetics problems. It is also the most efficient code, in the sense that it requires the least computational work to attain a specified accuracy level. An important finding is that use of the algebraic enthalpy conservation equation to compute the temperature can be more accurate and efficient than integrating the temperature differential equation.

Radhadrishnan, Krishnan

Synthesis of hover autopilots for rotary-wing VTOL aircraft

The practical situation is considered where imperfect information on only a few rotor and fuselage state variables is available. Filters are designed to estimate all the state variables from noisy measurements of fuselage pitch/roll angles and from noisy measurements of both fuselage and rotor pitch/roll angles. The mean square response of the vehicle to a very gusty, random wind is computed using various filter/controllers and is found to be quite satisfactory although, of course, not so good as when one has perfect information (idealized case). The second part of the report considers precision hover over a point on the ground. A vehicle model without rotor dynamics is used and feedback signals in position and integral of position error are added. The mean square response of the vehicle to a very gusty, random wind is computed, assuming perfect information feedback, and is found to be excellent. The integral error feedback gives zero position error for a steady wind, and smaller position error for a random wind.

Hall, W. E.

Use of multiple gauges and microwave attenuation of precipitation for satellite verification

In this paper both a microwave attenuation measurement along a horizontal line and multiple point gauge measurements are analyzed as possible ground-truth designs to validate satellite precipitation retrieval algorithms at the field of view spatial level (typically about 20 km). The design consists of comparing a sequence of pairs of contemporaneous measurements taken from the ground and from space. The authors examine theoretically the variance of expected differences between the two systems. The line average measurement leads to a smaller mean-square error compared to the case of a single point gauge, since some of the small-scale variability of the rain field is smoothed away by the line integration. The multiple point gauge measurements also give smaller mean-square error than that of a single point gauge. The centroid of the line and point gauge configurations are considered to be located randomly inside the field of view for different overpasses. A space-time spectral formalism is used with a noise-forced diffusive rain field to find the mean-square error. By considering instantaneous ground and satellite measurement pairs over about 50 visits when raining, we can reduce the expected error to approximately 10% of the standard deviation of climatological variability. This is considered to be a useful level of tolerance for identifying biases in the retrieval algorithms. It is found that the multiple point gauges (especially two gauges) are the economical ground-truth design compared to the microwave attenuation based on the mean-square error comparison. The major finding of this study is that a significant improvement over the point gauge is obtained by adding a single additional piece of information; adding more gauges or extending the line of attenuation is not an important improvement.

Ha, Eunho

Test functions for the moment method which yield the minimum mean square error

The method of moments has found extensive applications in the solution of a wide class of electromagnetic problems. Additionally, there are a number of basis functions which have found favor and with them different types of testing methods. This work examines the selection of test functions, given a selected set of basis functions, which serve to minimize the mean square error. These test functions will guarantee equal or lesser error compared with any other test function. Additionally, these test functions provide a monotonic improvement of the approximation as the increase in the order of the system. Hence while these test functions require the application of the differential or integral operator one additional time, they provide an absolute lower bound to the mean square error in the approximation and a means to systematically improve accuracy with each increase in the order of the unknowns.

Shamansky, H.

Detection of signals by weighted integrate-and-dump filter

A Weighted Integrate and Dump Filter (WIDF) is presented that results in reducing those losses in telemetry symbol signal to noise ratio (SNR) which occur in digital Integrate and Dump Filters (IDFs) when the samples are not phase locked to the input data symbol clock. The Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) criterion is used to derive a set of weights for approximating the analog integrate and dump filter, which is the matched filter for detection of signals in additive white Gaussian noise. This new digital matched filter results in considerable performance improvement compared to unweighted digital matched filters. An example is presented for a sampling rate of four times the symbol rate. As the sampling offset (or phase) varies with respect to the data symbol boundaries, the output SNR varies 1 dB for an unweighted IDF, but only 0.3 dB for the optimum WIDF, averaged over random data patterns. This improvement in performance relative to unweighted IDF means that significantly lower sampling and processing rates can be used for given telemetry symbol rates, resulting in reduced system cost.

Sadr, R.

A note on obtaining an approximate value for the period of a periodic solution of x-double prime = -V prime /x/

The first integral of x-double prime = - V prime (x) yields an integral for the period of a periodic solution, if such exists. In general, this integral cannot be evaluated. By means of an approximate solution along with the minimization of a mean-square error, one can obtain an approximate value for the period in terms of the amplitude of the motion. The calculated period agrees very well with the period obtained by means of numerical integration for the case of orbit-orbit resonance involving the motion of two satellites of a planet. The same method is applied to obtain an alternative derivation of the first Krylov-Bogoliuboff averaging method in nonlinear mechanics.

Lass, H.

Optimal generalized multistep integration formulae for real-time digital simulation

The problem of discretizing a dynamical system for real-time digital simulation is considered. Treating the system and its simulation as stochastic processes leads to a statistical characterization of simulator fidelity. A plant discretization procedure based on an efficient matrix generalization of explicit linear multistep discrete integration formulae is introduced, which minimizes a weighted sum of the mean squared steady-state and transient error between the system and simulator outputs.

Moerder, D. D.

Above-Aircraft Cirrus Cloud and Aerosol Optical Depth From Hyperspectral Irradiances Measured By a Total-Diffuse Radiometer

This study develops the use of spectral total and diffuse irradiance measurements, made from a prototype hyperspectral total-diffuse sunshine pyranometer (SPN-S), to retrieve layer fine-mode aerosol (τ aer ) and total optical depths from airborne platforms. Additionally, we use spectral analysis in an attempt to partition the total optical depth into its τ aer and cirrus cloud optical depth (τ cld ) components in the absence of coarse-mode aerosols. Two retrieval methods are developed: one leveraging information in the diffuse irradiance and the other using spectral characteristics of the transmitted direct beam, with each approach best suited for specific cloud and aerosol conditions. The SPN-S has advantages over traditional sun photometer systems, including no moving parts and a low cost. However, a significant drawback of the instrument is that it is unable to measure the direct-beam irradiance as accurately as sun photometers. To compensate for the greater measurement uncertainty in the radiometric irradiances, these retrieval techniques employ ratioed inputs or spectral information to reduce output uncertainty. This analysis uses irradiance measurements from the SPN-S and the solar spectral flux radiometer (SSFR) aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) P-3 aircraft during the 2018 deployment of the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) campaign and the 2019 Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP 2 Ex) mission to quantify above-aircraft cirrus τ cld and derive vertical profiles of layer τ aer . Validation of the τ aer retrieval is accomplished by comparison with co-located measurements of direct solar irradiance made by the Sky-Scanning Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) and in situ measurements of aerosol optical depth. For the aggregated 2018 ORACLES results, regression between the SPN-S-based method and sun photometer τ aer values yields a slope of 0.96 with an R 2 of 0.96, while the root mean square error (RMSE) is 3.0 x 10 -2 . When comparing the retrieved τ aer to profiles of integrated in situ measurements of optical extinction, the slope, R 2 , and RMSE values for ORACLES are 0.90, 0.96, and 3.4 x 10 -2 , and for CAMP 2 Ex they are 0.94, 0.97, and 3.4 x 10 -2 , respectively. This paper is a demonstration of methods for deriving cloud and aerosol optical properties in environments where both atmospheric constituents may be present. With improvements to the low-cost SPN-S radiometer instrument, it may be possible to extend these methods to a broader set of sampling applications, such as ground-based settings.

spectral instrument (SPN-S)

A Performance Analysis on Soil Dielectric Models Over Organic Soils in Alaska for Passive Microwave Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture

Passive microwave remote sensing of soil moisture (SM) requires a physically based dielectric model that quantitatively converts the volumetric SM into the soil bulk dielectric constant. Mironov 2009 is the dielectric model used in the operational SM retrieval algorithms of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) missions. However, Mironov 2009 suffers a challenge in deriving SM over organic soils, as it does not account for the impact of soil organic matter (SOM) on the soil bulk dielectric constant. To this end, we presented a comparative performance analysis of nine advanced soil dielectric models over organic soil in Alaska, four of which incorporate SOM. In the framework of the SMAP single-channel algorithm at vertical polarization (SCA-V), SM retrievals from different dielectric models were derived using an iterative optimization scheme. The skills of the different dielectric models over organic soils were reflected by the performance of their respective SM retrievals, which was measured by four conventional statistical metrics, calculated by comparing satellite-based SM time series with in-situ benchmarks. Overall, SM retrievals of organic-soil-based dielectric models tended to overestimate, while those from mineral-soil-based models displayed dry biases. All the models showed comparable values of unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) and Pearson Correlation (R), but Mironov 2019 exhibited a slight but consistent edge over the others. An integrated consideration of the model inputs, the physical basis, and the validated accuracy indicated that the separate use of Mironov 2009 and Mironov 2019 in the SMAP SCA-V for mineral soils (SOM < 15%) and organic soils (SOM ≥ 15%) would be the preferred option.

Soil Moisture

Integrated Modeling for the Next Generation Space Telescope "Yardstick" Concept

The so-called NASA "Yardstick" design concept for the Next Generation Space Telescope presents unique challenges for systems-level analysis. Simulations that integrate controls, optics, thermal, and structural models are required to evaluate baseline performance, study design sensitivities, and perform design optimization. An integrated modeling approach was chosen using a combination of commercial off-the-shelf and "in-house" developed codes. The resulting capability provides a foundation for linear and non-linear analysis, using both the time and frequency-domain methods. It readily allows various combinations of design parameters and environmental loads to be evaluated directly in terms of key science-related metrics, in this case the scalar RMS (root mean square) line-of-sight and RMS wavefront errors. This presentation first addresses the development of the component, or discipline, models for the Yardstick design. It will then proceed to present the integration of the component models, using linear-systems approaches, in order to support two of the most critical baseline performance analyses: jitter and thermal-elastic stability of the optical telescope assembly (OTA). The results of the jitter analysis indicate that disturbances from the reaction wheels coupled with the lightly-damped and highly-flexible structure present significant challenges to the baseline line-of-sight control architecture. Vibration isolation will be required to meet jitter error requirements. The results of the thermal-elastic analysis indicate that the mirror segment displacements due to ground-to-orbit cool-down of the telescope are within the expected capture range of the segment rigid-body control actuators. This means we will be able to align and phase the primary mirror. However, the results for the analysis of the thermal transient response following an attitude maneuver (slew) show that this telescope design is not sufficiently stable, passively, to meet the wavefront error requirements. Structural re-design is one possibility; alternatively, active thermal control of the OTA may be considered. The Yardstick integrated models were successfully used to demonstrate the feasibility of two thermal control strategies.

Mosier, Gary E.

Experimental validation of optimization-based integrated controls-structures design methodology for flexible space structures

An optimization-based integrated design approach for flexible space structures is experimentally validated using three types of dissipative controllers, including static, dynamic, and LQG dissipative controllers. The nominal phase-0 of the controls structure interaction evolutional model (CEM) structure is redesigned to minimize the average control power required to maintain specified root-mean-square line-of-sight pointing error under persistent disturbances. The redesign structure, phase-1 CEM, was assembled and tested against phase-0 CEM. It is analytically and experimentally demonstrated that integrated controls-structures design is substantially superior to that obtained through the traditional sequential approach. The capability of a software design tool based on an automated design procedure in a unified environment for structural and control designs is demonstrated.

Maghami, Peiman G.

Integrating Chlorophyll fapar and Nadir Photochemical Reflectance Index from EO-1/Hyperion to Predict Cornfield Daily Gross Primary Production

The concept of light use efficiency (Epsilon) and the concept of fraction of photosynthetically active ration (PAR) absorbed for vegetation photosynthesis (PSN), i.e., fAPAR (sub PSN), have been widely utilized to estimate vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP). It has been demonstrated that the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) is empirically related to ε. An experimental US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cornfield in Maryland was selected as our study field. We explored the potential of integrating fAPAR(sub chl) (defined as the fraction of PAR absorbed by chlorophyll) and nadir PRI (PRI(sub nadir)) to predict cornfield daily GPP. We acquired nadir or near-nadir EO-1/Hyperion satellite images that covered the cornfield and took nadir in-situ field spectral measurements. Those data were used to derive the PRI(sub nadir) and fAPAR (sub chl). The fAPAR (sub chl) is retrieved with the advanced radiative transfer model PROSAIL2 and the Metropolis approach, a type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation procedure. We define chlorophyll light use efficiency Epsilon (sub chl) as the ratio of vegetation GPP as measured by eddy covariance techniques to PAR absorbed by chlorophyll (Epsilon(sub chl) = GPP/APAR (sub chl). Daily Epsilon (sub chl) retrieved with the EO-1 Hyperion images was regressed with a linear equation of PRI (sub nadir) Epsilon (sub chl) = Alpha × PRI (sub nadir) + Beta). The satellite Epsilon(sub chl- PRI (sub nadir) linear relationship for the cornfield was implemented to develop an integrated daily GPP model [GPP = (Alpha × PRI(sub nadir) + Beta) × fAPAR (sub chl) × PAR], which was evaluated with fAPAR (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir) retrieved from field measurements. Daily GPP estimated with this fAPAR (sub chl-) PRI (nadir) integration model was strongly correlated with the observed tower in-situ daily GPP (R(sup 2) = 0.93); with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.71 g C mol−(sup -1) PPFD and coefficient of variation (CV) of 16.57%. Both seasonal Epsilon (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir) were strongly correlated with fAPAR (sub chl ) retrieved from field measurements, which indicates that chlorophyll content strongly affects seasonal epsilon (sub chl) and PRI (sub nadir). We demonstrate the potential capacity to monitor GPP with space-based visible through shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers such as NASA's soon to be decommissioned EO- 1/Hyperion and the future Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI).

HyspIRI

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its Impact on Northern Hemisphere Weather Predictability during Wintertime

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known as the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has an important role in the coupled-atmosphere system. This study used twin numerical model experiments to investigate the influence of the MJO activity on weather predictability in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard laboratory for the Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model was first used in a 10-yr simulation with fixed climatological SSTs to generate a validation data set as well as to select initial conditions for active MJO periods and Null cases. Two perturbation numerical experiments were performed for the 75 cases selected [(4 MJO phases + Null phase) _ 15 initial conditions in each]. For each alternative initial condition, the model was integrated for 90 days. Mean anomaly correlations in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (2O deg N_60 deg.N) and standardized root-mean-square errors were computed to validate forecasts and control run. The analyses of 500-hPa geopotential height, 200-hPa Streamfunction and 850-hPa zonal wind component systematically show larger predictability during periods of active MJO as opposed to quiescent episodes of the oscillation.

Jones, Charles

An Update on the Role of Systems Modeling in the Design and Verification of the James Webb Space Telescope

The James Web Space Telescope (JWST) is a large, infrared-optimized space telescope scheduled for launch in 2014. System-level verification of critical performance requirements will rely on integrated observatory models that predict the wavefront error accurately enough to verify that allocated top-level wavefront error of 150 nm root-mean-squared (rms) through to the wave-front sensor focal plane is met. The assembled models themselves are complex and require the insight of technical experts to assess their ability to meet their objectives. This paper describes the systems engineering and modeling approach used on the JWST through the detailed design phase.

Muheim, Danniella

Systems Engineering on the James Webb Space Telescope

The James Web Space Telescope (JWST) is a large, infrared-optimized space telescope scheduled for launch in 2014. System-level verification of critical performance requirements will rely on integrated observatory models that predict the wavefront error accurately enough to verify that allocated top-level wavefront error of 150 nm root-mean-squared (rms) through to the wave-front sensor focal plane is met. This paper describes the systems engineering approach used on the JWST through the detailed design phase.

Menzel, Michael T.