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Interannual to Multidecadal Forcing of Mesoscale Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Subtropical Southern Indian Ocean
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Design description of the Schuchuli Village photovoltaic power system
A stand alone photovoltaic (PV) power system for the village of Schuchuli (Gunsight), Arizona, on the Papago Indian Reservation is a limited energy, all 120 V (d.c.) system to which loads cannot be arbitrarily added and consists of a 3.5 kW (peak) PV array, 2380 ampere-hours of battery storage, an electrical equipment building, a 120 V (d.c.) electrical distribution network, and equipment and automatic controls to provide control power for pumping water into an existing water system; operating 15 refrigerators, a clothes washing machine, a sewing machine, and lights for each of the homes and communal buildings. A solar hot water heater supplies hot water for the washing machine and communal laundry. Automatic control systems provide voltage control by limiting the number of PV strings supplying power during system operation and battery charging, and load management for operating high priority at the expense of low priority loads as the main battery becomes depleted.
Analysis of the economics of photovoltaic-diesel-battery energy systems for remote applications
Computer simulations were conducted to analyze the performance and operating cost of a photovoltaic energy source combined with a diesel generator system and battery storage. The simulations were based on the load demand profiles used for the design of an all photovoltaic energy system installed in the remote Papago Indian Village of Schuchuli, Arizona. Twenty year simulations were run using solar insolation data from Phoenix SOLMET tapes. Total energy produced, energy consumed, operation and maintenance costs were calculated. The life cycle and levelized energy costs were determined for a variety of system configurations (i.e., varying amounts of photovoltaic array and battery storage).
Planetary Scale Interactions
Atmospheric teleconnections in the medium to long (10-90 days) time scales focusing on the interactions between extratropical circulation and tropical convection are studied. In a continuing effort to study short-term climate variability and atmospheric teleconnection as inferred from satellite observed outgoing longwave radiation, the low frequency variability (LFB) of tropical and extratropical cloud fluctuation over the Pacific was studied. It was found that during the Northern winter, the LFV of tropical cloud fluctuation is dominated by a 40-50 day dipole-like oscillation linking convection over Indonesia and the equatorial central Pacific. Eastward propagating signals appearing as outbursts of convective cloud clusters originating from the Indian Ocean appear to periodically feed energy into this dipole oscillation. It was also found that there are cloud features appearing over East Asia and subsequently over the eastern North Pacific which vary coherently with the tropical dipole anomaly. Based on analysis and an a priori phenomenological model, it is believed that the cloud fluctuations are associated with two space/time extended normal modes of tropical-extratropical interactions over the Pacific involving a coupling between the tropical dipole convective heating anomaly with cold surges over East Asia, and blocking over the eastern North Pacific respectively.
Ionization states of low-energy cosmic rays - Results from Spacelab 3 cosmic-ray experiment
The Indian cosmic ray experiment Anuradha, conducted onboard Spacelab 3 during April 29-May 6, 1985 was designed to obtain information on the ionization states of low-energy cosmic rays, using the geomagnetic field as a rigidity filter to place an upper limit on the ionization state of individual cosmic ray particles. This paper presents data confirming the presence of three distinct groups of energetic particles in the near-earth space: (1) low-energy (15-25 MeV/nucleon) anomalous cosmic rays that are either singly ionized or consistent with their being in singly ionized state, (2) fully ionized galactic cosmic ray ions, and (3) partially ionized iron and sub-iron group ions (which account for about 20 percent of all the iron and sub-iron group ions detected at the Spacelab 3 orbit within the magnetosphere in the energy interval 25-125 MeV/nucleon). It is argued that these partially ionized heavy ions are indeed a part of the low-energy galactic cosmic rays present in the interplanetary space.
Relationship Between the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Measurements and Surface Temperatures of Selected Ocean Regions
Clear sky longwave radiances and fluxes are compared with the sea surface temperatures for three oceanic regions: Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) measurements were obtained by the three thermistor bolometers: total channel which measures the radiation arising from the earth-atmosphere system between 0.3 - greater than 100 micrometers; the window channel which measures the radiation from 8-12 micrometers; and the shortwave channel which measures the reflected energy from 0.3 - less than 5.0 micrometers. These instruments have demonstrated measurement precisions of approximately 0.3% on the International Temperature Scale of 1990 (ITS-90) between ground and on-orbit sensor calibrations. In this work we have used eight months of clear sky earth-nadir-view radiance data starting from January 1998 through August 1998. We have found a very strong correlation of 0.97 between the CERES window channel's weekly averaged unfiltered spectral radiance values at satellite altitude (350 km) and the corresponding weekly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) data covering all the oceanic regions. Such correlation can be used in predicting the sea surface temperatures using the present CERES Terra's window channel radiances at satellite altitude very easily.
The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations
Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.
Trends in sulfur dioxide over the Indian subcontinent during 2003–2019
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and its oxidation products profoundly impact the air quality and climate. In recent decades, contrasting SO2 trends have been observed over different regions of the globe due to urbanization, energy generation and control measures. In this study, we have investigated the SO2 trends over the rapidly developing Indian subcontinent using model reanalysis, satellite data, and emission inventories during 2003–2019 period. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis shows rapid SO2 growth up to 0.4 ppbv/yr during 2003–2009, particularly significant over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and eastern India. However, the growth becomes slower after 2010 and is followed by a stabilization or slight reduction. The CAMS results agree with the satellite-based observations, however, the model underestimates enhancements over eastern India. The analysis of inventory datasets also suggests slower growths in SO2 emissions and coal-fired electricity generation in recent years. Besides the changes in regional emissions, the enhancements in water vapor and OH radical coinciding with SO2 stabilization indicate strengthening of the sink processes. Model simulation (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2―MERRA-2) with constant emissions shows reduction in SO2 which confirms the stronger chemical losses. Overall, the SO2 trends over the Indian subcontinent are found to be a manifestation of the combined effects of the regional emission change and chemistry. Our findings highlight the need for studies to assess the impacts of changing SO2 trends in India on the regional and global climate.
Flare Plasma Iron Abundance
The equivalent width of the iron-line complex at 6.7 keV seen in flare X-ray spectra suggests that the iron abundance of the hottest plasma at temperatures >approx.10 MK may sometimes be significantly lower than the nominal coronal abundance of four times the photospheric value that is commonly assumed. This conclusion is based on X-ray spectral observations of several flares seen in common with the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and the Solar X-ray Spectrometer (SOXS) on the second Indian geostationary satellite, GSAT-2. The implications of this will be discussed as it relates to the origin of the hot flare plasma - either plasma already in the corona that is directly heated during the flare energy release process or chromospheric plasma that is heated by flare-accelerated particles and driven up into the corona. Other possible explanations of lower-than-expected equivalent widths of the iron-line complex will also be discussed.
Evaluating the Large-Scale Hydrological Cycle Response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) Ensemble
The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.
Simulations of Cloud-Radiation Interaction Using Large-Scale Forcing Derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO Northern Sounding Array
The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.
Market definition study of photovoltaic power for remote villages in the United States
A grass roots evaluation of the market potential was carried out for photovoltaic applications in remote villages in the U. S. and its possessions. An estimate of almost 14 MWp available for conversion from a potential to a real market was defined. The total power potential was based on the energy needs of almost 400 sites reported by Federal agencies and inputs from over 100 Indian tribes. The methodology used, the results achieved, and some recommendations of how to convert this domestic market potential into a real market are detailed.
Solar Radiation and Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Pacific Warm Pool Estimated Using TOGA COARE Measurements
The energy budget of the tropical western Pacific (TWP) is particularly important because this is one of the most energetic convection regions on the Earth. Nearly half of the solar radiation incident at the top of atmosphere is absorbed at the surface and only about 22% absorbed in the atmosphere. A large portion of the excess heat absorbed at the surface is transferred to the atmosphere through evaporation, which provides energy and water for convection and precipitation. The western equatorial Pacific is characterized by the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and heaviest rainfall in the world ocean. A small variation of SST associated with the eastward shift of the warm pool during El-Nino/Souther Oscillation changes the atmospheric circulation pattern and affects the global climate. In a study of the TWP surface heat and momentum fluxes during the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) Intensive observing period (IOP) from November 1992 to February have found that the solar radiation is the most important component of the surface energy budget, which undergoes significant temporal and spatial variation. The variations are influenced by the two 40-50 days Madden Julian Oscillations (MJOs) which propagated eastward from the Indian Ocean to the Central Pacific during the IOP. The TWP surface solar radiation during the COARE IOP was investigated by a number of studies. In addition, the effects of clouds on the solar heating of the atmosphere in the TWP was studied using energy budget analysis. In this study, we present some results of the TWP surface solar shortwave or SW radiation budget and the effect of clouds on the atmospheric solar heating using the surface radiation measurements and Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 4 radiance measurements during COARE IOP.
Exploring Radiation, Water and Energy Closure in Key Deep Tropical Regions Over the Last 3 Decades
The closure of global energy and water budgets at various time scales depends heavily upon the on the processes of water and energy exchange in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance in key tropical regions is observed of water budget terms between observations and atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. For instance, periods of imbalance in the water budget may be at least partly attributed to precipitation estimates due to the transition between cloud and precipitation systems in which ice cloud affects microwave radar estimates (Lietmann-Niimi et al. 2024, submitted). A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process is characterized by wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures as well. This is just one example how these processes also affect the radiative fluxes and thus the energy budget at the TOA. In this presentation, we assess the net radiative budget and components in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES EBAF/SYN1deg Ed4.2, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the temporal variability of energy balance terms across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present in six key oceanic regions. These six key tropical oceanic regions are West Indian Ocean, the south Indian Ocean east, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. In these regions we assess the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear to assess the uncertainties of energy closure in these regions. These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. These differences also affect closure terms and inferences on systematic uncertainties within the observational estimates. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work