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Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making

Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making (Final Report) This Department of Energy workshop award (grant #DE-SC0008480) provided primary support for the American Meteorological Society’s study on climate information needs for financial decision making. The goal of this study was to help advance societal decision making by examining the implications of climate variability and change on near-term financial investments. We explored four key topics: 1) the conditions and criteria that influence returns on investment of major financial decisions, 2) the climate sensitivity of financial decisions, 3) climate information needs of financial decision makers, and 4) potential new mechanisms to promote collaboration between scientists and financial decision makers. Better understanding of these four topics will help scientists provide the most useful information and enable financial decision makers to use scientific information most effectively. As a result, this study will enable leaders in business and government to make well-informed choices that help maximize long-term economic success and social wellbeing in the United States The outcomes of the study include a workshop, which brought together leaders from the scientific and financial decision making communities, a publication of the study report, and a public briefing of the results to the policy community. In addition, we will present the results to the scientific community at the AMS Annual Meeting in February, 2014. The study results were covered well by the media including Bloomberg News and E&E News. Upon request, we also briefed the Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) on the outcomes. We presented the results to the policy community through a public briefing in December on Capitol Hill. The full report is publicly available at www.ametsoc.org/cin. Summary of Key Findings The United States invests roughly $1.5 trillion U.S. dollars (USD) in capital assets each year across the public and private sectors (Orszag 2008; United States Census Bureau 2013). Extreme weather events create and exacerbate risks to these financial investments by contributing to: • Direct physical impacts on the investments themselves • Degradation of critical supporting infrastructure • Changes in the availability of key natural resources • Changes to workforce availability or capacity • Changes in the customer base • Supply chain disruptions • Legal liability • Shifts in the regulatory environment • Reductions in credit ratings Even small changes in weather can impact operations in critical economic sectors. As a result, maximizing returns on financial investments depends on accurately understanding and effectively accounting for these risks. Climate variability and change can either exacerbate existing risks or cause new sources of risk to emerge. Managing these risks most effectively will depend on scientific advances and increases in the capacity of financial decision makers to use the scientific knowledge that results. Barriers to using climate information must also be overcome. This study proposes three predefined levels of certainty for communicating about weather and climate risks: 1) possible (i.e., unknown likelihood or less than 50% chance of occurrence), 2) probable (greater than 50% chance of occurrence), and 3) effectively certain (at least 95% chance of occurrence). For example, it is effectively certain that a change in climate will alter weather patterns. It is probable that climate warming will cause increases in the intensity of some extreme events. It is possible that climate change will cause major and widespread disruptions to key planetary life-support services. Key recommendations of this study: 1) Identify climate-related risks and opportunities for financial decision making. 2) Create a framework to translate scientific information in clear and actionable terms for financial decision makers. 3) Analyze existing climate assessments and translate projected impacts into possible, probable, and effectively certain impacts. 4) Improve climate projections with respect to precipitation (timing, amount, and intensity), extreme events, and tails of probability distributions (i.e., low-probability but high-consequence events). 5) Increase spatial resolution of climate projections in order to provide climate information at the scale most relevant to financial investments. 6) Improve projections of the societal consequences of climate impacts through integrated assessments of physical, natural, and social sciences. 7) Create a user-friendly information repository and portal that provides easy access to information relevant to financial decision making. 8) Create and maintain opportunities to bring together financial decision makers, scientists, and service providers. Near-term financial decisions have long-term implications for the United States’ social and economic well-being that depend, in part, on climate variability and change. Investments will be most successful, and will advance the interests of society most effectively, if they are grounded in the best available knowledge & understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Information Needs of New Radiotherapy Patients: How to Measure? Do They Want to Know Everything? And if Not, Why?

Purpose: To establish 1) further psychometric properties of the information preference for radiotherapy patients scale (IPRP); 2) what information new radiotherapy patients want to receive; 3) which patients have a lower information need. Methods and Materials: Eligible patients (n = 159; response rate 54%) of 15 radiation oncologists completed the IPRP and provided background characteristics before their first radiotherapy consultation. Exclusion criteria were: age <18 years, having undergone radiotherapy before, unable to read and write Dutch, cognitive problems or a brain tumor. Results: Reliability (Cronbach's alpha 0.84-0.97) and concurrent validity (r from .39 to .57, p < 0.001) of the subscales of the IPRP were good. New radiotherapy patients want extensive information about their disease, treatment, procedures, side effects, and prognosis (mean scores between 4.1 and 4.4 on a scale from 1 to 5) but less information about psychosocial issues (mean = 3.4). Patients who are older and male, have lung or rectal cancer, more difficulty understanding and a higher trait anxiety level, need less information. Conclusions: The IPRP can reliably and validly address information needs of patients undergoing radiation treatment. Most new radiotherapy patients want much information. Yet, information giving should be tailored according to their background, understanding and anxiety.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The SPICE concept - An approach to providing geometric and other ancillary information needed for interpretation of data returned from space science instruments

The Navigation Ancillary Information Facility (NAIF), acting under the direction of NASA's Office of Space Science and Applications, and with substantial participation of the planetary science community, is designing and implementing an ancillary data system - called SPICE - to assist scientists in planning and interpreting scientific observations taken from spaceborne instruments. The principal objective of the implemented SPICE system is that it will hold the essential geometric and related ancillary information needed to recover the full value of science instrument data, and that it will facilitate correlations of individual instrument datasets with data obtained from other instruments on the same or other spacecraft.

Acton, Charles H., Jr.↗

Pilots' Information Needs and Strategies for Operating in Icing Conditions

Pilot current use of icing information, pilot encounters and strategies for dealing with in-flight aircraft structural icing situations, and desired attributes of new icing information systems were investigated through a survey of pilots of several operational categories. The survey identified important information elements and fiequently used information paths for obtaining icing-related information. Free- response questions solicited descriptions of significant , icing encounters, and probed key icing-related decision and information criteria. Results indicated the information needs for the horizontal and vertical location of icing conditions and the identification of icing-free zones.

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence N.↗

Fuel Salt Information Needed to Support Safety Adequacy Assessment [Slides]

This presentation provides an overview of the information needed to support fuel salt safety adequacy assessment. It provides a discussion of fuel salt qualification and developing a mechanistic source term. This presentation includes discussion the use of total stored energy release as a means to bound potential accidents.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Information needs, approaches, and case studies in human health risk communication

This article uses ten case studies to illustrate the information needs, various communication approaches, and the communicator's role in explaining environmental health risks from a variety of hazards, to a variety of audiences, over time frames from days to years, using in person consultation, lectures, zooms, and email formats. Events often had a long history before the communication began and may have had a long tail afterward. Audiences may be public officials, companies, workers, communities, or individuals. Each individual may have their own understanding or mental model regarding the hazard, exposure, and risk. The communicator's role or intention may be to reassure an audience that has unrealistic exaggerated concerns or fears or to protect a client if the fears are realistic. Or it may be altruistic to inform a complacent audience to take the risks it faces more seriously. Although risk assessment research has advanced the techniques for communicating abstruse probabilities to audiences with low numeracy, in my experience, audiences are unimpressed by precise–sounding probability numbers, and are more interested in whether exposure is occurring or may occur and how to stop it. Often audiences have reason to be outraged and may be more concerned about punishing wrong doers than about the hazard itself, particularly when the exposure is past and cannot be undone. Thus, there is a difference between discussing the riskiness of a situation (risk communication) and what you are going to do about the situation (risk management). Risk communication is successful when the audience responds as intended, calming down or taking action. These case studies are drawn from a large number of risk communication experiences that I and my Rutgers colleagues have engaged in over the past four decades. Through the 20th century, New Jersey was the most densely industrialized State in United States. New Jersey experienced growth of the chemical and petrochemical industries and the unfortunately profligate disposal of toxic wastes. Having the most Superfund sites of any state is a dubious distinction, but New Jersey also has the most experience in evaluating and responding to these hazards.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Technical Information Needs and Regulatory Considerations for Front-End Transportation Activities of HALEU Fuel Feed Material

This report fulfills task order number 31310022F0033 Task 1 Assessment of technical information needs and considerations for front-end transportation activities for HALEU fuel feed material. This assessment primarily focuses on the transportation outlook and packaging requirements for transporting high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel feed material. The regulatory framework is described in section 3.0. In section 4.0 the specific issues associated with reviewing HALEU feed material packages are discussed. The rest of the report discusses the need for new packages and Department of Energy progress on HALEU production. Through this evaluation it is shown that the 5% enrichment barrier between low-enriched uranium and HALEU is a significant challenge to transportation packaging. However, there are licensed designs and concepts that can be used to transport HALEU feedstock. No significant issues were identified through the HALEU range up to 20% enriched.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A template of information needs for decision-making about delaying remediation on contaminated lands to protect human health

The contamination legacy of industrialization, militarization, and nuclear arms race poses current or future risks to populations and the environment. Responsible parties and regulators make decisions regarding which sites to clean up, how, how much, and when. This study aimed to provide an information needs template to evaluate and reduce risks to human health when considering whether to initiate or delay remediation. This investigation focused on four aspects of timing and prioritization: 1) management, planning and implementation, 2) source terms, pathways, and exposures, 3) risks and receptors, and 4) external drivers. Within each type, issues were identified and described. Management class included personnel, health and safety data, funding, equipment, and structural integrity. Source term included contaminant sources, pathways, initiating events, and barriers to exposure. Risk included types and exposures to workers and general public. External drivers included regulatory framework, stakeholders, Congressional mandates, and economic and social contexts. Risk may increase over time as contamination spreads, enters aquifers, and reaches receptors, and may decline as radionuclides decay, and plumes dissipate. The overall objective was to provide a template of information that is useful to managers and regulators, and might be used by the public to understand the risks and benefits of re-prioritization cleanup.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Identifying Information Needs and Tools to Support Interactions between Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) Operations and the Air Traffic System (ATS)

With the introduction of high-altitude long endurance (HALE) vehicles and balloons designed to operate above 60,000 feet, the frequency and duration of operations in Upper Class E airspace are expected to increase. In response to the need for scalable traffic management for these diverse operations at higher altitudes, the FAA introduced the Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) concept. Like the successful demonstration of Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM), the ETM concept is also designed as a community-based, industry-driven cooperative approach to traffic management. As these vehicles and balloons ascend to/descend from ETM Cooperative Areas in Upper Class E, they will transit through Class A controlled airspace where they will interact with various entities of the conventional Air Traffic System (ATS) (e.g., Air Traffic Control (ATC)). This work explores tools that will help support ETM-ATS interactions for users throughout the ATS, as well as ETM Operators. An information needs analysis using ETM-ATS interaction use cases, revealed that the needed functionalities generally grouped themselves into two main themes, the visualization of flights and airspace designations, and digital communication capabilities across various human users. In this paper, we describe two envisioned tools, 1) an Integrated Visualization Tool to display flight information and airspace designations, and 2) an Integrated Digital Communication Tool to facilitate two-way information exchange between users about vehicle position information, the coordination of airspace approvals, and notifications. The tools we describe create an integrated visual representation of vehicles and airspace designations with a set of communication capabilities to consolidate information into a single display interface. These tools may be used to guide the development of prototype tools for demonstrations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center to further explore ETM-ATS interactions within the ETM concept.

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

Identifying Information Needs and Tools to Support Interactions between Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) Operations and the Air Traffic System (ATS)

With the introduction of high-altitude long endurance (HALE) vehicles and balloons designed to operate above 60,000 feet, the frequency and duration of operations in Upper Class E airspace are expected to increase. In response to the need for scalable traffic management for these diverse operations at higher altitudes, the FAA introduced the Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) concept. Like the successful demonstration of Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM), the ETM concept is also designed as a community-based, industry-driven cooperative approach to traffic management. As these vehicles and balloons ascend to/descend from ETM Cooperative Areas in Upper Class E, they will transit through Class A controlled airspace where they will interact with various entities of the conventional Air Traffic System (ATS) (e.g., Air Traffic Control (ATC)). This work explores tools that will help support ETM-ATS interactions for users throughout the ATS, as well as ETM Operators. An information needs analysis using ETM-ATS interaction use cases, revealed that the needed functionalities generally grouped themselves into two main themes, the visualization of flights and airspace designations, and digital communication capabilities across various human users. In this paper, we describe two envisioned tools, 1) an Integrated Visualization Tool to display flight information and airspace designations, and 2) an Integrated Digital Communication Tool to facilitate two-way information exchange between users about vehicle position information, the coordination of airspace approvals, and notifications. The tools we describe create an integrated visual representation of vehicles and airspace designations with a set of communication capabilities to consolidate information into a single display interface. These tools may be used to guide the development of prototype tools for demonstrations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center to further explore ETM-ATS interactions within the ETM concept.

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

Status of DOE-Managed Waste Repository Safety Assessment Information Needs

The U.S. DOE evaluated the need for disposing of only DOE-Managed high-level-waste (HLW, which includes DOE-managed spent nuclear fuel [SNF] in this report) in a geologic repository by using the Nuclear Waste Policy Act 1982 (NWPA, as amended) and stated (DOE, 2015) “A geologic repository for permanent disposal of Defense HLW could be sited, licensed, constructed, and operated more quickly than a Common NWPA Repository and would provide valuable experience to reduce the cost of a future repository and the time needed to develop it.” Based in part on that report, the President of the United States issued a memorandum stating that such a repository was required (see website with content at https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/24/presidential-memorandum-disposal-defensehigh-level-radioactive-waste-se). This furthered the recommendation from DOE (2014) to “…begin implementation of a phased, adaptive, and consent-based strategy with development of a separate mined repository for some DOE-managed HLW and cooler DOE-managed SNF, potentially including some portion of the inventory of naval SNF.” The work in this report summarizes the status of activities within the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) to begin assessing the information needs for evaluating the safety of such a repository, considering both the waste forms being disposed and the repository concepts being considered. This report is milestone M3FT-15SN0824011 performed under the UFDC work package FT-15SN082401 to provide a status of the progress made towards this objective.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Content and Representation of Information Needed to Support Time-Constrained Problem Solving

NASA’s current mission-operations paradigm originated with Project Mercury and endured with minimum evolution through the Apollo Program, Space Shuttle Program, and ISS missions. At its foundation is a near-complete real-time dependence on a ground team to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew. Utilizing many engineers and operators with broad and deep expertise; large, distributed datasets including extensive telemetry; and expansive analytical and computing power, this ground team has served as the safety net for crewed spaceflight missions over the past 60 years. This approach must change to address challenges associated with missions beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO), including infrequent resupply, reduced ability to evacuate, and delayed communications that prohibit real-time operational support. We anticipate that a necessary part of this change will be increased independence for the crew, as roles and responsibilities traditionally performed by ground teams move on board the vehicle. While many risks are associated with Earth-independent operations, one particular concern is ensuring that the crew will have adequate onboard support to perform urgent problem solving when communication with the ground is delayed or intermittent. A key resource that enables the ground team to respond to anomalies quickly and effectively is the extraordinary expertise and experience it possesses. It is comprised of 80+ experts on at any given time, with a combined 600+ years of system-specific experience across 22 unique console disciplines. A small crew will face the unprecedented challenge of independently responding to anomalies that have historically been handled by a team 20 times their size. Another important resource upon which the ground heavily relies to support procedure execution and anomaly response is data. The amount of telemetry data that each flight controller monitors is extensive. In addition, as the ground team works to further assess impacts, trouble shoot, identify workarounds, and oversee procedure execution, it accesses and synthesizes engineering and procedure information, as well as system build, test, and configuration documentation. It is not feasible nor useful to put all these data onboard as crews become more Earth independent. Each member of a small Mars mission small crew will have multiple roles beyond monitoring telemetry and data gathering, and multiple roles within anomaly resolution processes, thereby limiting their capacity for copious amounts of information. Moreover, while access is necessary, it alone is insufficient. Information will need to be compiled, refined, and represented appropriately to support the crew’s reduced attention and expertise. This work seeks to understand the content and representation of information needed to support time-constrained problem solving and decision making by the crew without real-time ground support. To build this understanding, we first surveyed the literature, focusing on how expert problem solvers construct and manipulate their mental models. Next, we interviewed expert problem solvers in spaceflight and analogous domains and surveyed industry solutions for data presentation. Finally, we analyzed current spaceflight operations by investigating flight controller anomaly resolution processes during ISS training simulations and real operational events. These methods led to creating a problem-solving framework that details common themes and features of attending to, assessing, analyzing, and acting on problems in complex, time-constrained domains. Using this framework and the results of our analysis, we identified conceptual data representations needed for crew-led problem-solving. Preliminary onboard user interface concepts to meet identified needs will be presented.

anomaly response↗

Assessment of Technical Information Needs and Considerations for Front-End Activities for Molten Salt Fuel Types

This report details an assessment of the hazards and safety impacts related to front-end operations of molten salt reactors (MSR) as well as an assessment of existing safety guidance. Publicly available information was evaluated to make recommendations to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for guidance development and information gathering needs. Five different MSR technologies were evaluated along with information from 1960’s about the Atomic Energy Commission programs for the Aircraft Reactor Experiment and Molten Salt Reactor Experiment. Primary areas of evaluation include fuel cycle facilities, transportation and at reactor fuel mixing operations up to reactor startup. In general, there was difficulty synthesizing publicly available information due to the early stage of the MSR development and proprietary information associated with the reactor technology companies analyzed. There are a few specific recommendations from this report. One overarching paradigm shift that the NRC needs to evaluate is the possibility of collocating fuel cycle facilities with operating MSRs. Although there is no specific prohibition to this in the NRC regulations, the collocation of the fuel cycle facilities with the operating MSR presents a novel approach compared to the light water reactor baseline. More guidance and research into thorium operations and regulation is needed. The hazards associated with the stability of stored fuel constituents need to be evaluated. Some reactor fuel cycles use beryllium, and its use and the associated hazards need further analysis. NRC-approved designs for transportation packages for shipping molten salt fuels and factory-built and fueled reactors are not available.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Applying remote sensing and GIS techniques in solving rural county information needs

The project designed was to acquaint county government officials and their clientele with remote sensing and GIS products that contain information about land conditions and land use. Other users determined through the course of this project were federal agencies working at the county level, agricultural businesses and others in need of spatial information. The specific project objectives were: (1) to investigate the feasibility of using remotely sensed data to identify and quantify specific land cover categories and conditions for purposes of tax assessment, cropland area measurements and land use evaluation; (2) to investigate the use of satellite remote sensing data as an aid in assessing soil management practices; and (3) to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data to assess soil resources and conditions which affect productivity.

Johannsen, Chris J.↗

Information needs: Perceived and real for state decisionmakers

Remote sensing techniques provide important information for land and water use planning organizations in order to assess coastal developments and their impact on water resources, sediment transport, erosion, and marine biology. Political expediency requires pertinent data acquisition and data dissemination to local populations for coastal zone management decision making.

Schwartz, A. R.↗

NEEDS - Information Adaptive System

The Information Adaptive System (IAS) is an element of the NASA End-to-End Data System (NEEDS) Phase II and is focused toward onboard image processing. The IAS is a data preprocessing system which is closely coupled to the sensor system. Some of the functions planned for the IAS include sensor response nonuniformity correction, geometric correction, data set selection, data formatting, packetization, and adaptive system control. The inclusion of these sensor data preprocessing functions onboard the spacecraft will significantly improve the extraction of information from the sensor data in a timely and cost effective manner, and provide the opportunity to design sensor systems which can be reconfigured in near real-time for optimum performance. The purpose of this paper is to present the preliminary design of the IAS and the plans for its development.

Kelly, W. L.↗

Visual information transfer. 1: Assessment of specific information needs. 2: The effects of degraded motion feedback. 3: Parameters of appropriate instrument scanning behavior

Pilot and flight crew assessment of visually displayed information is examined as well as the effects of degraded and uncorrected motion feedback, and instrument scanning efficiency by the pilot. Computerized flight simulation and appropriate physiological measurements are used to collect data for standardization.

Comstock, J. R., Jr.↗

Making a Water Data System Responsive to Information Needs of Decision Makers

Evidence-based environmental management requires data that are sufficient, accessible, useful and used. A mismatch between data, data systems, and data needs for decision making can result in inefficient and inequitable capital investments, resource allocations, environmental protection, hazard mitigation, and quality of life. In this paper, we examine the relationship between data and decision making in environmental management, with a focus on water management. We focus on the concept of decision-driven data systems —data systems that incorporate an assessment of decision-makers' data needs into their design. The aim of the research was to examine the process of translating data into effective decision making by engaging stakeholders in the development of a water data system. Using California's legislative mandate for state agencies to integrate existing water and other environmental data as a case study, we developed and applied a participatory approach to inform data-system design and identify unmet data needs. Using workshops and focused stakeholder meetings, we developed 20 diverse use cases to assess data sources, availability, characteristics, gaps, and other attributes of data used for representative decisions. Federal and state agencies made up about 90% of the data sources, and could readily adapt to a federated data system, our recommended model for the state. The remaining 10% of more-specialized data, central to important decisions across multiple use cases, would require additional investment or incentives to achieve data consistency, interoperability, and compatibility with a federated system. Based on this assessment, we propose a typology of different types of data limitations and gaps described by stakeholders. We also propose technical, governance, and stakeholder engagement evaluation criteria to guide planning and building environmental data systems. Data-system governance involving both producers and users of data was seen as essential to achieving workable standards, stable funding, convenient data availability, resilience to institutional change, and long-term buy-in by stakeholders. Our work provides a replicable lesson for using decision-maker and stakeholder engagement to shape the design of an environmental data system, and inform a technical design that addresses both user and producer needs.

Cantor, Alida↗