A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050
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Paladugula, Anantha Lakshmi↗
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Multiscale Aspects of the Storm Producing the June 2013 Flooding in Uttarakhand, India
Conditions producing disastrous flooding in Uttarakhand, India, in June 2013 differed from conditions that produced other notorious floods in the Himalayan region in recent years. During the week preceding the Uttarakhand flood, deep convection moistened the mountainsides, making them vulnerable to flooding. However, the precipitation producing the flood was not associated with a deep convective event. Rather, an eastward-propagating upper-level trough in the westerlies extended abnormally far southward, with the jet reaching the Himalayas. The south end of the trough merged with a monsoon low moving westward across India. The merged system produced persistent moist low-level flow oriented normal to the Himalayas that advected large amounts of water vapor into the Uttarakhand region. The flow was moist neutral when it passed over the Himalayan barrier, and orographic lifting produced heavy continuous rain over the region for 2–3 days. The precipitation was largely stratiform in nature although embedded convection of moderate depth occurred along the foothills, where some mild instability was being released. The Uttarakhand flood had characteristics in common with major 2013 floods in the Rocky Mountains in Colorado and Alberta, Canada.
Houze, R. A.↗
Water for electricity in India: A multi-model study of future challenges and linkages to climate change mitigation
This paper provides projections of water withdrawals and consumption for electricity generation in India through 2050. Based on the results from five energy-economic modeling teams, the paper explores the implications of economic growth, power plant cooling policies, and electricity CO2 emissions reductions on water withdrawals and consumption. To isolate modeling differences, the five teams used harmonized assumptions regarding economic and population growth, the distribution of power plants by cooling technologies, and withdrawals and consumption intensities. The results demonstrate the different but potentially complementary implications of cooling technology policies and efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. The application of closed-loop cooling technologies substantially reduces water withdrawals but increases consumption. The water implications of CO2 emissions reductions, depend critically on the approach to these reductions. Focusing on wind and solar power reduces consumption and withdrawals; a focus on nuclear power increases both; and a focus on hydroelectric power could increase consumptive losses through evaporation.
electricity generation↗
India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Numerical Simulation of Reservoir Response to Depressurization
The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.
Boswell, Ray↗
Atmospheric ice nuclei concentration measurements over a high altitude-station in the Western Ghats, India
Mixed-phase and ice clouds play a significant role in modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and modeling studies suggest that inaccurate representation of ice nucleating particles (INP) is one of the factors, which have resulted in a deficiency in the prediction of cloud properties and hydrological cycle. We do not understand the ice nucleation mechanisms to represent the ice formation in the model, and therefore more INP measurements at various supercooled temperatures are needed. This study reports for the first time real-time INP concentration at a high altitude station in the Western Ghats region of India, and these results will be used to constrain the ice nucleation parameterizations in the model. The variation of INP for any particular cloud condition can have strong microphysical responses of mixed-phase precipitation formation processes. Also, to improve the representation of heterogeneous ice nucleation, INP measurements of various types of aerosols commonly observed over the Indian region are needed. This study presents, the INP concentrations and daily concentration of non-refractory chemical composition (organics, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and chloride), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and aerosol size distribution. Spectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) was operated to measure INP concentration at the mountain site from August to December 2018. INP measurements were performed at three different temperatures (-25, -30, and - 34 °C) in the immersion freezing mode relevant for mixed-phase cloud conditions. The average INP concentrations approximately varied from 0.18 to 12.4 L-1, 0.39 to 24 L-1, 1.1 to 40.2 L-1 at -25, -30, and - 34 °C, respectively. These concentrations are within the concentrations reported in the literature from different regions across the globe. The air mass back trajectory analysis showed that continental air mass contains more INP compared to maritime air mass. The information on INP concentration and chemical characteristics of aerosol will help to improve heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization in numerical models.
Kumar, Anil V.↗
India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas Hydrate Systems Along the Eastern Continental Margin of India
The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.
Collett, Tim↗
High quality draft genome sequence and analysis of Pontibacter roseus type strain SRC-1T (DSM 17521T) isolated from muddy waters of a drainage system in Chandigarh, India
Pontibacter roseus is a member of genus Pontibacter family Cytophagaceae, class Cytophagia. While the type species of the genus Pontibacter actiniarum was isolated in 2005 from a marine environment, subsequent species of the same genus have been found in different types of habitats ranging from seawater, sediment, desert soil, rhizosphere, contaminated sites, solar saltern and muddy water. Here we describe the features of Pontibacter roseus strain SRC-1 T along with its complete genome sequence and annotation from a culture of DSM 17521 T . In conclusion, the 4,581,480 bp long draft genome consists of 12 scaffolds with 4,003 protein-coding and 50 RNA genes and is a part of Genomic Encyclopedia of Type Strains: KMG-I project.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Cross-Border Electricity Trade between India and Sri Lanka: Impact on Power System Operations
Recent developments in South Asia have the potential to increase the incentives for cross-border energy trade (CBET) between India and Sri Lanka. India's surplus power, including from its rapid expansion of wind and solar generation, provides an incentive for it to increase investment returns through exports. Sri Lanka is considering options to increase its power supply, and CBET could alleviate the need for investments in new thermal generation capacity, while giving it access to India's large and diverse power system. Finally, CBET can facilitate renewable energy (RE) integration by allowing the two countries to more efficiently harness balancing resources and smooth out wind and solar variability over larger geographic areas. This study builds on several prior analyses of a potential high-voltage direct current transmission link between India and Sri Lanka. Uniquely, the study makes use of a detailed one-year, 30-minute resolution unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) model of both countries to examine the technical and economic impacts of CBET between India and Sri Lanka in the year 2025. The study finds that CBET, enabled by a 500-MW high voltage direct current transmission link, could generate annual production cost savings of USD 180 million and improve power system operations. Through better utilization of the most efficient generators, generation from relatively expensive natural gas plants in Sri Lanka is displaced by lower cost imports from India. In addition, increased flexibility through exports reduces RE curtailment in India's Southern region by 400 GWh annually. While the study captures many previously unconsidered intertemporal operational constraints, it does not provide a complete characterization of system operations with a high-voltage direct current interconnection. Additional work should include a dynamic analysis of system stability following interruptions to the direct current interconnection, an AC power flow analysis and consideration of any non-technical barriers to trade which might prevent the optimization of CBET between India and Sri Lanka at 30-minute timescales.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India
As the two largest emerging emitters with the highest growth in operational carbon emissions from residential buildings, the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India warrant further exploration. This study aims to be the first to present a carbon intensity model considering end-use performances, assessing the operational decarbonization progress of residential building in India and China over the past two decades using the newest decomposing structural decomposition approach. Results indicate (1) the annual operational carbon intensity increased by 1.4% and 2.5% in China and India, respectively, between 2000 and 2020. Household expenditure-related energy intensity and emission factors were crucial in decarbonizing residential buildings. (2) Building electrification played a significant role in decarbonizing space cooling (–87.7 in China and – 130.2 kg of carbon dioxide (kgCO 2 ) per household in India) and appliances (~ –169.7 in China and ~ –43.4 kgCO 2 per household in India). (3) China and India collectively decarbonized 1498.3 and 399.7 M-tons of CO 2 in residential building operations, respectively. In terms of decarbonization intensity, India (164.8 kgCO 2 per household) nearly caught up with China (182.5 kgCO 2 per household) in 2020 and is expected to surpass China in the upcoming years, given the country's robust annual growth rate of 7.3%. Overall, this study provides an effective data-driven tool for investigating the building decarbonization potential in China and India, and offers valuable insights for other emerging economies seeking to decarbonize residential buildings in the forthcoming COP28 1 age.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India
India has witnessed some of the most devastating extreme precipitation events, which have affected urban transportation, agriculture, and infrastructure. Despite the profound implications and damage due to extreme precipitation events, the influence of anthropogenic warming on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events over India remains poorly constrained. Here using the gridded observations and simulations from the Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) and Climate of 20th century plus (C20C+) detection and attribution (D&A) project, we show that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events have increased in India during the last few decades. Along with the extreme precipitation, dew point temperature has also increased during 1979–2015. The scaling relationship between extreme precipitation and dew point temperature shows a super (more than 7% increase per unit rise in dew point temperature) Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship for the majority of south India. Moreover, southern and central India show a higher (10%/°C) scaling relationship than north India (3.5%/°C). Our analysis using the Hist (historic) and HistNat (historic natural) simulations from the CMIP5 and C20C+ projects confirms an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events under the anthropogenic warming. Moreover, we show that 1–5 day precipitation maxima at 5–500 year return period increases (10–30%) under the anthropogenic warming. The frequency of precipitation extremes is projected to rise more prominently in southern and central India in the mid and end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Our results show a significant contribution of anthropogenic warming in the rise of the frequency of extreme precipitation, which has implications for infrastructure, agriculture, and water resources in India.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling India’s Coal Production with a Negatively Skewed Curve-Fitting Model
India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030
In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Nuclear programs in India and Pakistan
India and Pakistan launched their respective nuclear programs in the 1940s and 1950s with considerable foreign technical support, especially from the United States Atoms for Peace Program. The technology and training that was acquired served as the platform for later nuclear weapon development efforts that included nuclear weapon testing in 1974 and in 1998 by India, and also in 1998 by Pakistan - which had illicitly acquired uranium enrichment technology especially from Europe and received assistance from China. As of 2013, both India and Pakistan were continuing to produce fissile material for weapons, in the case of India also for nuclear naval fuel, and were developing a diverse array of ballistic and cruise missiles. International efforts to restrain the South Asian nuclear build-up have been largely set aside over the past decade as Pakistani support became central for the U.S. war in Afghanistan and as U.S. geopolitical and economic interests in supporting the rise of India, in part as a counter to China, led to India being exempted both from U.S non-proliferation laws and international nuclear trade guidelines. In the absence of determined international action and with Pakistan blocking the start of talks on a fissile material cutoff treaty, nuclear weapon programs in South Asia are likely to keep growing for the foreseeable future.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners
In India, there is growing interest among policymakers, planners, and regulators for aggressive electrification of passenger vehicles. For example, Piyush Goyal, the Minister of State for India’s Ministry of Coal, Power, New and Renewable Energy, announced an aspirational goal of converting all vehicle sales in India to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 (Economic Times, 2016). In 2012, India has already announced the National Mission on Electric Mobility (NMEM) sets a countrywide goal of deploying 6 to 7 million hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) by 2020 (DHI, 2012). A major policy motivation for transport electrification is to reduce India’s oil import dependency. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of full electrification of vehicle sales in India by 2030 on the key stakeholders such as BEV owners, electric utilities, and the government. Specifically, we attempt to answer the following questions: (a) How does the total vehicle ownership cost of BEVs compare with the conventional vehicles? (b) What is the additional load due BEV charging? (c) What is the impact on the power sector investments, costs, and utility revenue? (d) How can smart BEV charging help renewable energy grid integration? (e) What is the impact on the crude oil imports? (f) What is the impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions?
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
India 2030 Wind and Solar Integration Study (Interim Report)
India has established several targets for renewable energy capacity growth in the coming years, most notably the target of deploying 175 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity from wind, solar, biomass, and small hydropower by 2022, and furthering that vision with India's Nationally Determined Contribution target of 40% renewable electricity capacity (including hydro) by 2030 (GOI 2015). Given the rapid and significant changes to India's power system to help meet these targets, the objective of this interim report is to understand the operational challenges for India's power grid in 2030. The primary contribution of this report is to establish a 2030 unit commitment and dispatch model of India's grid, with hourly temporal resolution, high spatial resolution of renewable energy resources, interstate transmission constraints, and unit-level generator characteristics. Annual simulations of 2030 operations demonstrate that a 22% annual penetration of wind and solar is manageable by India's grid. Most days in the year do not show signs of stress, and 99.97% of energy is served with the plans as presented. Average coal plant load factors are 70% for the year, up from relatively low plant load factors in recent years (Patel 2018). However, the results highlight specific challenges the grid may face during a small number of high-demand periods, resulting in unserved energy. The drivers behind the unserved energy suggest that this could be avoided with better coordination in scheduling. This report is part of a broader set of analyses under the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), which includes collaborations with The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Climate Policy Initiative (CPI), and a broad stakeholder community.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗