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At least 19 records

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

Integrated Mecical Model (IMM) 4.0 Verification and Validation (VV) Testing (HRP IWS 2016)

Timeline, partial treatment, and alternate medications were added to the IMM to improve the fidelity of this model to enhance decision support capabilities. Using standard design reference missions, IMM VV testing compared outputs from the current operational IMM (v3) with those from the model with added functionalities (v4). These new capabilities were examined in a comparative, stepwise approach as follows: a) comparison of the current operational IMM v3 with the enhanced functionality of timeline alone (IMM 4.T), b) comparison of IMM 4.T with the timeline and partial treatment (IMM 4.TPT), and c) comparison of IMM 4.TPT with timeline, partial treatment and alternative medication (IMM 4.0).

risk assessment↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) 4.0 Enhanced Functionalities

The Integrated Medical Model is a probabilistic simulation model that uses input data on 100 medical conditions to simulate expected medical events, the resources required to treat, and the resulting impact to the mission for specific crew and mission characteristics. The newest development version of IMM, IMM v4.0, adds capabilities that remove some of the conservative assumptions that underlie the current operational version, IMM v3. While IMM v3 provides the framework to simulate whether a medical event occurred, IMMv4 also simulates when the event occurred during a mission timeline. This allows for more accurate estimation of mission time lost and resource utilization. In addition to the mission timeline, IMMv4.0 features two enhancements that address IMM v3 assumptions regarding medical event treatment. Medical events in IMMv3 are assigned the untreated outcome if any resource required to treat the event was unavailable. IMMv4 allows for partially treated outcomes that are proportional to the amount of required resources available, thus removing the dichotomous treatment assumption. An additional capability IMMv4 is to use an alternative medical resource when the primary resource assigned to the condition is depleted, more accurately reflecting the real-world system. The additional capabilities defining IMM v4.0the mission timeline, partial treatment, and alternate drug result in more realistic predicted mission outcomes. The primary model outcomes of IMM v4.0 for the ISS6 mission, including mission time lost, probability of evacuation, and probability of loss of crew life, are be compared to those produced by the current operational version of IMM to showcase enhanced prediction capabilities.

Spae Adaptation Syndrome↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Optimization Version 4.0 Functional Improvements

The IMMs ability to assess mission outcome risk levels relative to available resources provides a unique capability to provide guidance on optimal operational medical kit and vehicle resources. Post-processing optimization allows IMM to optimize essential resources to improve a specific model outcome such as maximization of the Crew Health Index (CHI), or minimization of the probability of evacuation (EVAC) or the loss of crew life (LOCL). Mass and or volume constrain the optimized resource set. The IMMs probabilistic simulation uses input data on one hundred medical conditions to simulate medical events that may occur in spaceflight, the resources required to treat those events, and the resulting impact to the mission based on specific crew and mission characteristics. Because IMM version 4.0 provides for partial treatment for medical events, IMM Optimization 4.0 scores resources at the individual resource unit increment level as opposed to the full condition-specific treatment set level, as done in version 3.0. This allows the inclusion of as many resources as possible in the event that an entire set of resources called out for treatment cannot satisfy the constraints. IMM Optimization version 4.0 adds capabilities that increase efficiency by creating multiple resource sets based on differing constraints and priorities, CHI, EVAC, or LOCL. It also provides sets of resources that improve mission-related IMM v4.0 outputs with improved performance compared to the prior optimization. The new optimization represents much improved fidelity that will improve the utility of the IMM 4.0 for decision support.

risk assessment↗

Qualitative Validation of the IMM Model for ISS and STS Programs

To validate and further improve the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), medical event data were obtained from 32 ISS and 122 STS person-missions. Using the crew characteristics from these observed missions, IMM v4.0 was used to forecast medical events and medical resource utilization. The IMM medical condition incidence values were compared to the actual observed medical event incidence values, and the IMM forecasted medical resource utilization was compared to actual observed medical resource utilization. Qualitative comparisons of these parameters were conducted for both the ISS and STS programs. The results of these analyses will provide validation of IMM v4.0 and reveal areas of the model requiring adjustments to improve the overall accuracy of IMM outputs. This validation effort should result in enhanced credibility of the IMM and improved confidence in the use of IMM as a decision support tool for human space flight.

risk assessment↗

Quantitative Validation of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for ISS Missions

Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) provided observed medical event data on 33 ISS and 111 STS person-missions for use in further improving and validating the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Using only the crew characteristics from these observed missions, the newest development version, IMM v4.0, will simulate these missions to predict medical events and outcomes. Comparing IMM predictions to the actual observed medical event counts will provide external validation and identify areas of possible improvement. In an effort to improve the power of detecting differences in this validation study, the total over each program ISS and STS will serve as the main quantitative comparison objective, specifically the following parameters: total medical events (TME), probability of loss of crew life (LOCL), and probability of evacuation (EVAC). Scatter plots of observed versus median predicted TMEs (with error bars reflecting the simulation intervals) will graphically display comparisons while linear regression will serve as the statistical test of agreement. Two scatter plots will be analyzed 1) where each point reflects a mission and 2) where each point reflects a condition-specific total number of occurrences. The coefficient of determination (R2) resulting from a linear regression with no intercept bias (intercept fixed at zero) will serve as an overall metric of agreement between IMM and the real world system (RWS). In an effort to identify as many possible discrepancies as possible for further inspection, the -level for all statistical tests comparing IMM predictions to observed data will be set to 0.1. This less stringent criterion, along with the multiple testing being conducted, should detect all perceived differences including many false positive signals resulting from random variation. The results of these analyses will reveal areas of the model requiring adjustment to improve overall IMM output, which will thereby provide better decision support for mission critical applications.

validation↗

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗

Printed Assemblies of Microscale Triple-Junction (3J) Inverted Metamorphic (IMM) GaInP/GaAs/InGaAs Solar Cells

Transfer printing of microscale devices has been shown to be a manufacturable pathway to low-profile, low cost, high concentration photovoltaic modules, where extremely high efficiency solar cells are desirable to achieve competitive costs. Inverted metamorphic multijunction (IMM) solar cells represent a promising platform for ultrahigh efficiency concentrator photovoltaic systems with a clear pathway to 50% efficiency. While transfer printing of microscale solar cell devices has been demonstrated with traditional upright solar cell structures, IMM structures present additional processing challenges. We demonstrate, for the first time, the transfer printing of fully-functional microscale triple-junction (3J) IMM solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High Radiation Resistance IMM Solar Cell

Due to high launch costs, weight reduction is a key driver for the development of new solar cell technologies suitable for space applications. This project is developing a unique triple-junction inverted metamorphic multijunction (IMM) technology that enables the manufacture of very lightweight, low-cost InGaAsP-based multijunction solar cells. This IMM technology consists of indium (In) and phosphorous (P) solar cell active materials, which are designed to improve the radiation-resistant properties of the triple-junction solar cell while maintaining high efficiency. The intrinsic radiation hardness of InP materials makes them of great interest for building solar cells suitable for deployment in harsh radiation environments, such as medium Earth orbit and missions to the outer planets. NASA Glenn's recently developed epitaxial lift-off (ELO) process also will be applied to this new structure, which will enable the fabrication of the IMM structure without the substrate.

Pan, Noren↗

Lightweight IMM PV Flexible Blanket Assembly

Deployable Space Systems (DSS) has developed an inverted metamorphic multijunction (IMM) photovoltaic (PV) integrated modular blanket assembly (IMBA) that can be rolled or z-folded. This IMM PV IMBA technology enables a revolutionary flexible PV blanket assembly that provides high specific power, exceptional stowed packaging efficiency, and high-voltage operation capability. DSS's technology also accommodates standard third-generation triple junction (ZTJ) PV device technologies to provide significantly improved performance over the current state of the art. This SBIR project demonstrated prototype, flight-like IMM PV IMBA panel assemblies specifically developed, designed, and optimized for NASA's high-voltage solar array missions.

Spence, Brian↗

Thin, Flexible IMM Solar Array

NASA needs solar arrays that are thin, flexible, and highly efficient; package compactly for launch; and deploy into large, structurally stable high-power generators. Inverted metamorphic multijunction (IMM) solar cells can enable these arrays, but integration of this thin crystalline cell technology presents certain challenges. The Thin Hybrid Interconnected Solar Array (THINS) technology allows robust and reliable integration of IMM cells into a flexible blanket comprising standardized modules engineered for easy production. The modules support the IMM cell by using multifunctional materials for structural stability, shielding, coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) stress relief, and integrated thermal and electrical functions. The design approach includes total encapsulation, which benefits high voltage as well as electrostatic performance.

Walmsley, Nicholas↗

From IMM to IMPACT: Enhanced Functionality for Exploration Missions

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is an evidence-based decision support tool used to assess medical risk and optimize medical systems for manned spaceflight missions. The IMM is baselined to the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of the spaceflight environment of low earth orbit and the ISS medical resource capability. IMPACT is the next generation evidence-based decision support tool currently under development by the Human Research Program to assess medical risk and optimize medical systems for future exploration missions to the moon and Mars. IMPACT is being designed to provide a comprehensive integrated suite of decision support tools for mission planners. This presentation will focus on the lessons learned from IMM and the enhanced functionalities of IMPACT.

E L Kerstman↗

Assessment of Model Outcomes between MEDPRAT and the IMM

- The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is the accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations. - While MEDPRAT implemented a new, efficient architecture and new capability, it's basic functionality mimics that of the IMM. - How does the outcome for the same reference missions and input data compare between IMM and MEDPRAT V1 and MEDPRAT V2?

Clara Gasiewski↗

Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) Framework for Exercise and Response Planning

EmergenCy management personnel at federal, stale, and local levels can benefit from the increased situational awareness and operational efficiency afforded by simulation and modeling for emergency preparedness, including planning, training and exercises. To support this goal, the Department of Homeland Security's Science & Technology Directorate is funding the Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) program to create an integrating framework that brings together diverse models for use by the emergency response community. SUMMIT, one piece of the IMMS program, is the initial software framework that connects users such as emergency planners and exercise developers with modeling resources, bridging the gap in expertise and technical skills between these two communities. SUMMIT was recently deployed to support exercise planning for National Level Exercise 2010. Threat, casualty. infrastructure, and medical surge models were combined within SUMMIT to estimate health care resource requirements for the exercise ground truth.

Mapar, Jalal↗

Inverted Metamorphic Multijunction (IMM) Cell Processing Instructions

This technical report details the processing schedule used to fabricate Inverted Metamorphic Multijunction (IMM) concentrator solar cells at The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). These devices are used as experimental test structures to support the research at NREL that is focused on increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic power conversion. They are not intended to be devicessuitable for deployment in working concentrator systems primarily because of heat sinking issues. The process schedule was developed to be compatible with small sample sizes and to afford relatively rapid turn-around times, in support of research efforts. The report describes the use of electro deposition of gold for both the back and front contacts. Electro-deposition is used because of itsrapid turn around time and because it is a benign metallization technique that is seldom responsible for damage to the semiconductors. The layer transfer technique is detailed including the use of a commercially available adhesive and the etching away of the parent gallium arsenide substrate. Photolithography is used to define front contact grids as well as the mesa area of the cell. Finally,the selective wet chemical etchant system is introduced and its use to reveal the back contact is described.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗