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Insight and Evidence Motivating the Simplification of Dual-Analysis Hybrid Systems into Single-Analysis Hybrid Systems

Many hybrid data assimilation systems currently used for NWP employ some form of dual-analysis system approach. Typically a hybrid variational analysis is responsible for creating initial conditions for high-resolution forecasts, and an ensemble analysis system is responsible for creating sample perturbations used to form the flow-dependent part of the background error covariance required in the hybrid analysis component. In many of these, the two analysis components employ different methodologies, e.g., variational and ensemble Kalman filter. In such cases, it is not uncommon to have observations treated rather differently between the two analyses components; recentering of the ensemble analysis around the hybrid analysis is used to compensated for such differences. Furthermore, in many cases, the hybrid variational high-resolution system implements some type of four-dimensional approach, whereas the underlying ensemble system relies on a three-dimensional approach, which again introduces discrepancies in the overall system. Connected to these is the expectation that one can reliably estimate observation impact on forecasts issued from hybrid analyses by using an ensemble approach based on the underlying ensemble strategy of dual-analysis systems. Just the realization that the ensemble analysis makes substantially different use of observations as compared to their hybrid counterpart should serve as enough evidence of the implausibility of such expectation. This presentation assembles numerous anecdotal evidence to illustrate the fact that hybrid dual-analysis systems must, at the very minimum, strive for consistent use of the observations in both analysis sub-components. Simpler than that, this work suggests that hybrid systems can reliably be constructed without the need to employ a dual-analysis approach. In practice, the idea of relying on a single analysis system is appealing from a cost-maintenance perspective. More generally, single-analysis systems avoid contradictions such as having to choose one sub-component to generate performance diagnostics to another, possibly not fully consistent, component.

Todling, Ricardo

Analysis of GaAs and Si solar energy hybrid systems

Various silicon hybrid systems are modeled and compared with a gallium arsenide hybrid system. The hybrid systems modeled produce electric power and also thermal power which can be used for heating or air conditioning. Various performance indices are defined and used to compare the system performance: capital cost per electric power out; capital cost per total power out; capital cost per electric power plus mechanical power; annual cost per annual electric energy; and annual cost per annual electric energy plus annual mechanical work. These performance indices indicate that concentrator hybrid systems can be cost effective when compared with present day energy costs.

Heinbockel, J. H.

Mobile radio alternative systems study satellite/terrestrial (hybrid) systems concepts

The use of satellites for mobile radio service in non-urban areas of the United States in the years from 1985 to 2000 was investigated. Several satellite concepts are considered: a system with single-beam coverage of the fifty United States and Puerto Rico, and multi-beam satellites with greater capacity. All of the needed functions and services identified in the market study are provided by the satellite systems, including nationwide radio access to vehicles without knowledge of vehicle location wideband data transmission from remote sites, two way exchange of short data and control messages between vehicles and dispatch or control centers, and automatic vehicle location (surveillance). The costs of providing the services are within acceptable limits, and the desired returns to the system investors are attractive. The criteria by which the Federal Communication judges the competing demands for public radio spectrum are reviewed with comments on how the criteria might apply to the consideration of land mobile satellites. Institutional arrangements for operating a mobile satellite system are based on the present institutional arrangements in which the services are offered to the end users through wireline and radio common carriers, with direct access by large private and government users.

Kiesling, J. D.

Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

prognosis

A Dual-Mode Hybrid System Combining Solar Thermal With Pumped Thermal Energy Storage

A hybrid system that delivers renewable electricity generation and electricity storage capabilities is introduced. This dual-mode hybrid system is based on Pumped Thermal Energy Storage (PTES) which uses a heat pump to convert electricity into thermal energy that is trans-ferred to silica particles which are stored in concrete silos. The stored heat is later converted back to electricity in a heat engine. The heat pump and heat engine use a closed Joule-Brayton cycle and fluidized bed heat exchangers. If the PTES system is co-located with an array of concentrating solar mirrors and a particle receiver, then the silica particles may also be heated up by the concentrating solar power (CSP) system. The PTES heat engine may also be used to convert the stored solar heat into electricity, thereby sharing this system between the PTES and CSP systems and reducing costs. However, this requires careful management of the heat engine off-design parameters. A thermodynamic model is used to evaluate the performance of the dual mode PTES-CSP hybrid system. The model accounts for turbomachinery effi-ciency, and approach temperature and pressure loss in heat exchangers, as well as other sources of inefficiency, such as motor-generator losses, and air fan power. The hybrid system also requires the evaluation of the turbomachinery efficiency and pressure ratio at off-design conditions since the CSP system operates over different temperature ratios than the Carnot Battery. Several design variables and design modifications are investigated, such as pressure ratios and maximum temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

The First Experiment with VLBI-GPS Hybrid System

In this paper, we introduce our GPS-VLBI hybrid system and show the results of the first experiment which is now under way. In this hybrid system, GPS signals are captured by a normal GPS antenna, down-converted to IF signals, and then sampled by the VLBI sampler VSSP32 developed by NICT. The sampled GPS data are recorded and correlated in the same way as VLBI observation data. The correlator outputs are the group delay and the delay rate. Since the whole system uses the same frequency standard, many sources of systematic errors are common between the VLBI system and the GPS system. In this hybrid system, the GPS antenna can be regarded as an additional VLBI antenna having multiple beams towards GPS satellites. Therefore, we expect that this approach will provide enough data to improve zenith delay estimates and geodetic results.

Kwak, Younghee

An Efficient Model-based Diagnosis Engine for Hybrid Systems Using Structural Model Decomposition

Complex hybrid systems are present in a large range of engineering applications, like mechanical systems, electrical circuits, or embedded computation systems. The behavior of these systems is made up of continuous and discrete event dynamics that increase the difficulties for accurate and timely online fault diagnosis. The Hybrid Diagnosis Engine (HyDE) offers flexibility to the diagnosis application designer to choose the modeling paradigm and the reasoning algorithms. The HyDE architecture supports the use of multiple modeling paradigms at the component and system level. However, HyDE faces some problems regarding performance in terms of complexity and time. Our focus in this paper is on developing efficient model-based methodologies for online fault diagnosis in complex hybrid systems. To do this, we propose a diagnosis framework where structural model decomposition is integrated within the HyDE diagnosis framework to reduce the computational complexity associated with the fault diagnosis of hybrid systems. As a case study, we apply our approach to a diagnostic testbed, the Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT), using real data.

Structural Decomposition

Viewing hybrid systems as products of control systems and automata

The purpose of this note is to show how hybrid systems may be modeled as products of nonlinear control systems and finite state automata. By a hybrid system, we mean a network of consisting of continuous, nonlinear control system connected to discrete, finite state automata. Our point of view is that the automata switches between the control systems, and that this switching is a function of the discrete input symbols or letters that it receives. We show how a nonlinear control system may be viewed as a pair consisting of a bialgebra of operators coding the dynamics, and an algebra of observations coding the state space. We also show that a finite automata has a similar representation. A hybrid system is then modeled by taking suitable products of the bialgebras coding the dynamics and the observation algebras coding the state spaces.

Grossman, R. L.

Molecular Level Understanding of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Depolymerization in Base/Alcohol Hybrid Systems

Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) depolymerization in base/alcohol hybrid systems represents a promising low-energy approach for chemically recycling PET waste into valuable monomers. This study investigates the mechanistic pathways of PET depolymerization in NaOH/alcohol solutions, emphasizing the competing roles of hydroxide and alkoxide species. Utilizing a combination of experimental techniques, density functional theory (DFT) calculations, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we explore how factors such as base concentration, alcohol chain length, and pKa values of alcohols influence PET depolymerization efficiency and pathways. Our findings indicate that alkoxide ions (RO⁻) exhibit notably higher reactivity than hydroxide ions (HO⁻), favoring an alcoholysis pathway in the base/alcohol hybrid system. Experimental results across a series of C1 to C5 alcohols show that longer-chain alcohols, particularly 1-butanol, achieve higher PET conversion, although this does not align solely with simple nucleophilicity trends of alkoxides. While DFT calculations reveal comparable activation energies for various alkoxides in PET depolymerization, MD simulations underscore the significant role of alcohol chain length, with longer-chain alcohols forming more stable or frequent interactions with PET. Additionally, the alkoxide concentration, influenced by the alcohol’s pK a , directly impacts PET conversion. These suggest that PET depolymerization is governed by a balance between alkoxide concentration and alkoxide-PET interactions, rather than activation energies or nucleophilicity alone. From a practical perspective, incorporating long-chain alcohols as cosolvents may enhance process efficiency but increases raw material costs by approximately 30%. However, long-chain alcohols present a safer and more sustainable alternative to hazardous cosolvents such as dichloromethane. This work offers a molecular-level understanding of PET depolymerization in base/alcohol systems and provides insights into optimizing these systems for more efficient and sustainable PET recycling processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Combining Particle Filters and Consistency-Based Approaches for Monitoring and Diagnosis of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

Fault detection and isolation are critical tasks to ensure correct operation of systems. When we consider stochastic hybrid systems, diagnosis algorithms need to track both the discrete mode and the continuous state of the system in the presence of noise. Deterministic techniques like Livingstone cannot deal with the stochasticity in the system and models. Conversely Bayesian belief update techniques such as particle filters may require many computational resources to get a good approximation of the true belief state. In this paper we propose a fault detection and isolation architecture for stochastic hybrid systems that combines look-ahead Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters (RBPF) with the Livingstone 3 (L3) diagnosis engine. In this approach RBPF is used to track the nominal behavior, a novel n-step prediction scheme is used for fault detection and L3 is used to generate a set of candidates that are consistent with the discrepant observations which then continue to be tracked by the RBPF scheme.

Narasimhan, Sriram

A Structural Model Decomposition Framework for Hybrid Systems Diagnosis

Nowadays, a large number of practical systems in aerospace and industrial environments are best represented as hybrid systems that consist of discrete modes of behavior, each defined by a set of continuous dynamics. These hybrid dynamics make the on-line fault diagnosis task very challenging. In this work, we present a new modeling and diagnosis framework for hybrid systems. Models are composed from sets of user-defined components using a compositional modeling approach. Submodels for residual generation are then generated for a given mode, and reconfigured efficiently when the mode changes. Efficient reconfiguration is established by exploiting causality information within the hybrid system models. The submodels can then be used for fault diagnosis based on residual generation and analysis. We demonstrate the efficient causality reassignment, submodel reconfiguration, and residual generation for fault diagnosis using an electrical circuit case study.

structural model decomposition

Acceptance Testing of a Satellite SCADA Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid System

Satellite Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) of a Photovoltaic (PV)/diesel hybrid system was tested using NASA's Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) and Ultra Small Aperture Terminal (USAT) ground stations. The setup consisted of a custom-designed PV/diesel hybrid system, located at the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), which was controlled and monitored at a "remote" hub via Ka-band satellite link connecting two 1/4 Watt USATs in a SCADA arrangement. The robustness of the communications link was tested for remote monitoring of the health and performance of a PV/diesel hybrid system, and for investigating load control and battery charging strategies to maximize battery capacity and lifetime, and minimize loss of critical load probability. Baseline hardware performance test results demonstrated that continuous two-second data transfers can be accomplished under clear sky conditions with an error rate of less than 1%. The delay introduced by the satellite (1/4 sec) was transparent to synchronization of satellite modem as well as to the PV/diesel-hybrid computer. End-to-end communications link recovery times were less than 36 seconds for loss of power and less than one second for loss of link. The system recovered by resuming operation without any manual intervention, which is important since the 4 dB margin is not sufficient to prevent loss of the satellite link during moderate to heavy rain. Hybrid operations during loss of communications link continued seamlessly but real-time monitoring was interrupted. For this sub-tropical region, the estimated amount of time that the signal fade will exceed the 4 dB margin is about 10%. These results suggest that data rates of 4800 bps and a link margin of 4 dB with a 1/4 Watt transmitter are sufficient for end-to-end operation in this SCADA application.

Kalu, A.

Technical, economic, and load-following capabilities assessment of grid-connected geothermal and geothermal-solar hybrid systems

The technical and economic performance as well as the load-following capabilities of grid-connected geothermal hybrid systems were assessed in this work. The analyzed geothermal hybrid configuration is composed of a binary geothermal plant integrated with a concentrating solar-thermal system and underground thermal energy storage (UTES) through a primary heat exchanger. Physics-based models for the hybrid system for plant generation capacities of 1, 25, and 50 MW were developed from validated models for each subsystem. Also, an economic model was developed that accounts for different hybrid system capabilities, solar field sizes, and thermal storage duration. The advantage of the geothermal hybrid system was assessed by comparing the performance with the baseline benchmark geothermal plant with a similar configuration and generation capacity. It was found that hybridizing geothermal plants with concentrating solar and thermal energy storage not only improves the thermal efficiency by up to 8 percentage points when additional heat from the solar-UTES loop rises the evaporator temperatures from 70 to 125 °C, but also enhances the load-following capability for the geothermal plant, which can meet a typical residential load profile with a power rate of change 0.25 kW/s with an absolute error under 13 kW for a 1 MW plant. Other benefits of hybridization include resource preservation and a potential LCOE reduction of up to 56% for a 50 MW geothermal hybrid plant having a 50% solar share, a 1.4 solar multiple, and 24-h storage capacity. The results presented in this work demonstrate that hybridizing geothermal systems transforms them into a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing the dynamic requirements of modern electric grids.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Diagnosing Hybrid Systems: a Bayesian Model Selection Approach

In this paper we examine the problem of monitoring and diagnosing noisy complex dynamical systems that are modeled as hybrid systems-models of continuous behavior, interleaved by discrete transitions. In particular, we examine continuous systems with embedded supervisory controllers that experience abrupt, partial or full failure of component devices. Building on our previous work in this area (MBCG99;MBCG00), our specific focus in this paper ins on the mathematical formulation of the hybrid monitoring and diagnosis task as a Bayesian model tracking algorithm. The nonlinear dynamics of many hybrid systems present challenges to probabilistic tracking. Further, probabilistic tracking of a system for the purposes of diagnosis is problematic because the models of the system corresponding to failure modes are numerous and generally very unlikely. To focus tracking on these unlikely models and to reduce the number of potential models under consideration, we exploit logic-based techniques for qualitative model-based diagnosis to conjecture a limited initial set of consistent candidate models. In this paper we discuss alternative tracking techniques that are relevant to different classes of hybrid systems, focusing specifically on a method for tracking multiple models of nonlinear behavior simultaneously using factored sampling and conditional density propagation. To illustrate and motivate the approach described in this paper we examine the problem of monitoring and diganosing NASA's Sprint AERCam, a small spherical robotic camera unit with 12 thrusters that enable both linear and rotational motion.

McIlraith, Sheila A.

Qualitative Fault Isolation of Hybrid Systems: A Structural Model Decomposition-Based Approach

Quick and robust fault diagnosis is critical to ensuring safe operation of complex engineering systems. A large number of techniques are available to provide fault diagnosis in systems with continuous dynamics. However, many systems in aerospace and industrial environments are best represented as hybrid systems that consist of discrete behavioral modes, each with its own continuous dynamics. These hybrid dynamics make the on-line fault diagnosis task computationally more complex due to the large number of possible system modes and the existence of autonomous mode transitions. This paper presents a qualitative fault isolation framework for hybrid systems based on structural model decomposition. The fault isolation is performed by analyzing the qualitative information of the residual deviations. However, in hybrid systems this process becomes complex due to possible existence of observation delays, which can cause observed deviations to be inconsistent with the expected deviations for the current mode in the system. The great advantage of structural model decomposition is that (i) it allows to design residuals that respond to only a subset of the faults, and (ii) every time a mode change occurs, only a subset of the residuals will need to be reconfigured, thus reducing the complexity of the reasoning process for isolation purposes. To demonstrate and test the validity of our approach, we use an electric circuit simulation as the case study.

Hybrid Systems Diagnosis