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DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Proteomic characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis subjected to carbon starvation

ABSTRACT Mycobacterium tuberculosis(Mtb) is the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), the leading cause of infectious disease-related deaths worldwide. TB infections present on a spectrum from active to latent disease. In the human host,Mtbfaces hostile environments, such as nutrient deprivation, hypoxia, and low pH. Under these conditions,Mtbcan enter a dormant, but viable, state characterized by a lack of cell replication and increased resistance to antibiotics. DormantMtbposes a major challenge to curing infections and eradicating TB globally. We subjectedMtbmc 2 6020 (ΔlysAand ΔpanCD), a double auxotrophic strain, to carbon starvation (CS), a culture condition that induces growth stasis and mimics environmental conditions associated with dormancyin vivo. We provide a detailed analysis of the proteome in CS compared to replicating samples. We observed extensive proteomic reprogramming, with 36% of identified proteins significantly altered in CS. Many enzymes involved in oxidative phosphorylation and lipid metabolism were retained or more abundant in CS. The cell wall biosynthetic machinery was present in CS, although numerous changes in the abundance of peptidoglycan, arabinogalactan, and mycolic acid biosynthetic enzymes likely result in pronounced remodeling of the cell wall. Many clinically approved anti-TB drugs target cell wall biosynthesis, and we found that these enzymes were largely retained in CS. Lastly, we compared our results to those of other dormancy models and propose that CS produces a physiologically distinct state of stasis compared to hypoxia inMtb. IMPORTANCE Tuberculosis is a devastating human disease that kills over 1.2 million people a year. This disease is caused by the bacterial pathogenMycobacterium tuberculosis(Mtb).Mtbexcels at surviving in the human host by entering a non-replicating, dormant state. The current work investigated the proteomic changes thatMtbundergoes in response to carbon starvation, a culture condition that models dormancy. The authors found broad effects of carbon starvation on the proteome, with the relative abundance of 37% of proteins significantly altered. Protein changes related to cell wall biosynthesis, metabolism, and drug susceptibility are discussed. Proteins associated with a carbon starvation phenotype are identified, and results are compared to other dormancy models, including hypoxia.

Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Osteocytic oxygen sensing: Distinct impacts of VHL and HIF-2alpha on bone integrity

Skeletal fracture resistance emerges from multiple components of bone structure like microarchitecture, matrix mineralization, and organization. These characteristics are engendered via mechanisms like the hypoxia-inducible factors (HIF) pathway, involving two paralogs, HIF-1α and HIF-2α. Under normoxia, HIF-α is targeted for degradation via von-Hippel Lindau (VHL); hypoxia enables HIF-α stabilization and induction of target genes. We previously showed that osteocytic Vhl deletion or expression of degradation-resistant HIF-2α cDR female mice each produced high bone mass, whereas degradation-resistant osteocytic HIF-1α produced no overt phenotype. We report within that Vhl cKO increased bone strength, while HIF-2α cDR displayed markedly reduced bone strength below Cre-negative controls. This suggests that VHL and HIF-2α drive distinct responses that promote disparate effects on bone strength. Both Vhl deletion or HIF-2α accumulation generated two discrete bone morphologies: an outer lamellar cortex and a woven, poorly mineralized endocortex that imparted dramatically different functional outcomes. Our studies reveal novel influence of osteocytic HIF-2α signaling on collagen matrix organization, mineralization, and bone strength.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regional and Sexual Dimorphism in Murine Skeletal Responses to Osteocytic HIF Pathway Modulation

Hypoxia-inducible factors (HIFs) are transcription factors stabilized under hypoxia and degraded under normoxia by the E3 ubiquitin ligase Von Hippel-Lindau (Vhl). In osteocytes, the central orchestrators of bone homeostasis, Vhl and HIFs promote an osteoanabolic transcriptional program. In this study, we assessed unique impacts of osteocytic Vhl deletion versus individual HIF-α paralog stabilization on bone structure, mineralization, and mechanics as a function of sex and skeletal region. Microcomputed tomography revealed that osteocytic Vhl deletion robustly increased trabecular bone mass in both sexes and at both axial and appendicular regions, while HIF-2α accumulation increased femoral metaphyseal bone mass in both sexes while enhancing vertebral bone mass only in males. Vhl deletion paradoxically reduced mineral heterogeneity in male vertebrae, despite raising peak and mean calcium content in both sexes. In contrast, HIF-2α stabilization impaired cortical mineralization and mechanics, especially in females. While cortical mineralization was disrupted in both genotypes, Vhl deletion improved whole bone mechanical properties, suggesting that enhanced geometry and mass offset compromised tissue quality. HIF-1α stabilization exerted negligible impacts on any outcome.

Biological and medical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nicotinamide-Loaded Peptoid Nanotubes for Energy Regeneration in Acute Brain Injury

Acute brain injuries such as perinatal asphyxia, stroke, and traumatic brain injury result in ischemia, oxidative stress, excitotoxicity, and inflammation, leading to a depletion of ATP. Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) is crucial for ATP regeneration and DNA repair during postinjury recovery. However, the therapeutic benefits of NAD+ and its precursors, such as nicotinamide (NAM), are limited by challenges in achieving effective cell-specific intracellular delivery. In this study, we use a nanopeptoid delivery strategy to replenish the cellular redox state and increase energy production in the acutely injured brain. By self-assembling peptoids into tubular structures, we created biocompatible NAM-conjugated peptoid nanotubes (NAM-PNTs) that vary in tubular length. NAM-PNTs demonstrated significant therapeutic benefits by enhancing cell viability and replenishing intracellular ATP levels within 24 h of treatment in oxygen–glucose-deprived (OGD) BV-2 cells. In organotypic brain slices, NAM-PNT treatment promoted glial proliferation, reduced proinflammatory cytokines, and increased anti-inflammatory cytokines after OGD, an ex vivo model of hypoxia-ischemia. The effect of NAM-PNTs is associated with their uptake into microglia via fluid-phase phagocytosis and caveolae-mediated endocytosis. A single systemic dose of NAM-PNTs localized in microglia in the injured hemisphere and reduced brain tissue loss and improved neuropathology after hypoxia-ischemia in term-equivalent rats. These findings highlight the therapeutic potential of NAM-PNTs for cell-specific targeted delivery and energy restoration in the acutely injured neonatal brain. In the neonatal brain injury field, this work demonstrates the development of an innovative nanoparticle platform from first-principles design and synthesis to in vitro screening and then demonstration of efficacy in vivo .

ATP↗

DOE OSTI2024

Morpho-physiological and transcriptomic responses of field pennycress to waterlogging

Field pennycress (Thlaspi arvense) is a new biofuel winter annual crop with extreme cold hardiness and a short life cycle, enabling off-season integration into corn and soybean rotations across the U.S. Midwest. Pennycress fields are susceptible to winter snow melt and spring rainfall, leading to waterlogged soils. The objective of this research was to determine the extent to which waterlogging during the reproductive stage affected gene expression, morphology, physiology, recovery, and yield between two pennycress lines (SP32-10 and MN106). In a controlled environment, total pod number, shoot/root dry weight, and total seed count/weight were significantly reduced in SP32-10 in response to waterlogging, whereas primary branch number, shoot dry weight, and single seed weight were significantly reduced in MN106. This indicated waterlogging had a greater negative impact on seed yield in SP32-10 than MN106. We compared the transcriptomic response of SP32-10 and MN106 to determine the gene expression patterns underlying these different responses to seven days of waterlogging. The number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between waterlogged and control roots were doubled in MN106 (3,424) compared to SP32-10 (1,767). Functional enrichment analysis of upregulated DEGs revealed Gene Ontology (GO) terms associated with hypoxia and decreased oxygen, with genes in these categories encoding proteins involved in alcoholic fermentation and glycolysis. Additionally, downregulated DEGs revealed GO terms associated with cell wall biogenesis and suberin biosynthesis, indicating suppressed growth and energy conservation. Interestingly, MN106 waterlogged roots exhibited significant stronger regulation of these genes than SP32-10, displaying a more robust transcriptomic response overall. Together, these results reveal the reconfiguration of cellular and metabolic processes in response to the severe energy crisis invoked by waterlogging in pennycress.

ERF-VII↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient 15 N hyperpolarization of [ 15 N 3 ]metronidazole antibiotic via spin-relayed pulsed SABRE-SHEATH

Signal Amplification by Reversible Exchange in SHield Enables Alignment Transfer to Heteronuclei (SABRE-SHEATH) is an NMR hyperpolarization technique that relies of the simultaneous exchange of parahydrogen and a to-be-hyperpolarized molecule on the metal center of a polarization-transfer catalyst in a microtesla magnetic field. Until recently, this method has been understood to perform hyperpolarization by establishing level anti-crossings between the nuclear spins of the parahydrogen derived hydrides (acting as a source of hyperpolarization) and those of the substrate. Recently, the application of highly non-intuitive pulse sequences (comprising pulses of microtesla DC fields) was predicted to hyperpolarize nuclear spins more efficiently than the canonical (static-field) SABRE-SHEATH approach. Here we show that by employing a basic “on-off” pulse sequence of rectangular microtesla pulses, it is possible to improve the hyperpolarization efficiency for SABRE-SHEATH of [ 15 N 3 ]metronidazole, an FDA-approved antibiotic (in non-enriched and non-hyperpolarized form) and potential hypoxia sensing molecule. Specifically, we demonstrate that 15N polarization of 18.5 % can be obtained in 80 s of parahydrogen bubbling parahydrogen through a solution containing 20 mM [ 15 N 3 ]metronidazole. In practice, (1.32 ± 0.14)-fold improvements in P 15N was obtained with the pulsed method described here compared to static field technique variant. These results show that pulsed SABRE-SHEATH was successfully applied to 15 N-labeled biologically relevant molecule. Moreover, we also demonstrate that although the pulsed SABRE-SHEATH sequence was designed for polarization transfer from parahydrogen derived hydrides to the metronidazole’s 15 N catalyst-binding site, all three 15 N sites of [ 15 N 3 ]metronidazole attained the hyperpolarized state. This spin-relayed polarization transfer becomes possible due to the 15 N relay network established by their spin-spin J-couplings. The feasibility of the spin-relayed polarization transfer is demonstrated here for the first time for pulsed SABRE-SHEATH (as opposed to the static-field SABRE-SHEATH reported previously) and it paves the way to broad applicability of the technique.

Hyperpolarization↗

DOE OSTI2025

How do Hydrological Variability and Human Activities Control the Spatiotemporal Changes of Riverine Nitrogen Export in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Excessive nitrogen export from agricultural watersheds remains a critical water quality challenge, with the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) significantly contributing to downstream eutrophication and hypoxia in the Gulf. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate plus nitrite (NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N) export across the UMRB at high spatial resolution (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes or HUC12 subwatershed scale) during 2001−2020 and quantifies the effects of anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability on riverine NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N export changes in the region between 2001−2005 and 2016−2020. Our results revealed hotspots of substantial increases in NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields across the UMRB, with distinct regional patterns in driving factors. Over the entire UMRB, NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields increased by 9.7 kg/ha/yr on average from 2001−2005 to 2016−2020, with anthropogenic activities contributing 4.8 kg/ha/yr and hydrological variability contributing 4.9 kg/ha/yr. The northern and western UMRB had combined influences from both anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability, while the east-central regions had predominantly hydrologically driven changes. Agricultural sources, including fertilizer, manure, and biological nitrogen fixation, collectively contributed over 80% of NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N loading throughout the basin. Furthermore, this framework for disentangling human and hydrological impacts provides critical insights for developing effective and targeted watershed management strategies to reduce nutrient losses and improve water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Variation in Flooding Tolerance in Populus deltoides ‘D-124’ and P. trichocarpa x P. deltoides Hybrid ‘52–225’

Flooding poses a substantial challenge to plant survival and productivity, particularly in riparian genus like Populus. This study examines the physiological, morphological, metabolic, and molecular responses of Populus deltoides ‘D-124’ and P. trichocarpa x P. deltoides hybrid clone ‘52–225’ under control and inundated conditions to identify differences in flooding tolerance. Under flooding conditions, physiological and cellular stress was more pronounced in P. deltoides ‘D-124’ than in the hybrid clone ‘52–225,’ as evidenced by lower transpiration (E), photosynthesis (A), and chlorophyll content. In contrast, ‘52–225’ showed reduced ROS accumulation suggesting better cellular function under stress. Morphologically, ‘52–225’ produced more shoot-born roots, which likely enhance oxygen transport and metabolic activity during flooding. Metabolite profiling revealed both overlapping and distinct patterns of sugar and amino acid accumulation between genotypes. Gene expression analysis revealed that flooding-responsive genes, including ALCOHOL DEHYDROGENASE 1 and HYPOXIA RESPONSIVE ERF 2, were activated in both genotypes, with a more pronounced response noted in ‘52–225.’ These findings extend our understanding of flooding tolerance mechanisms in Populus by connecting physiological traits, stress responses, and genetic regulation. This research contributes to the development of more flooding-resilient poplar varieties, with potential applications in breeding and restoration programs for flooding-prone environments.

Flooding stress↗

DOE OSTI2026

Engineered Production of Hydroxycinnamoyl Tyramine Conjugates Limits the Growth of the Pathogen Pseudomonas syringae in Arabidopsis

Hydroxycinnamoyl tyramine conjugates are phenolamides produced by plants in response to pathogen attack and biotic stresses. Their proposed mechanisms of action include cytotoxicity towards pathogens, cell wall reinforcement to restrict pathogen proliferation, and signaling activity to trigger general stress responses. Here, we engineered the production of the tyramine conjugates p-coumaroyltyramine (CT) and feruloyltyramine (FT) in Arabidopsis to gain insight into their mode of action. Co-expression of feedback-insensitive 3-deoxy-D-arabino-heptulosonate 7-phosphate synthase and tyrosine decarboxylase increased tyramine content. Additional expression of tyramine hydroxycinnamoyltransferase led to de-novo production of CT and FT, which were found as soluble and cell-wall-bound forms. FT was associated with lignin in stems. The growth of pathogenic Pseudomonas syringae was reduced in rosettes of the Arabidopsis CT- and FT-producing lines compared to wild type. These lines also exhibited increased transpirational water loss in excised rosettes. Transcriptomic analysis of transgenic lines grown under normal conditions revealed alterations in the expression of genes associated with the biological circadian clock. These changes led to a reduction in flavonoids and an early flowering phenotype. Important changes in the expression of genes related to abiotic stress such as drought, cold, heat, and hypoxia potentially contribute to reduced growth of P. syringae in engineered Arabidopsis.

Phenolamides↗

DOE OSTI2025

The mevalonate pathway of isoprenoid biosynthesis supports metabolic flexibility in Mycobacterium marinum

ABSTRACT Isoprenoids are a diverse class of natural products that are essential in all domains of life. Most bacteria synthesize isoprenoids through either the methylerythritol phosphate (MEP) pathway or the mevalonate (MEV) pathway, while a small subset encodes both pathways, including the pathogen Mycobacterium marinum (Mm). It is unclear whether the MEV pathway is functional in Mm, or why Mm encodes seemingly redundant metabolic pathways. Here, we show that the MEP pathway is essential in Mm, while the MEV pathway is dispensable in culture, with the ΔMEV mutant having no growth defect in axenic culture but a competitive growth defect compared to WT Mm. We found that the MEV pathway does not play a role in ex vivo or in vivo acute infection but does play a role in survival of peroxide stress. Metabolite profiling revealed that modulation of the MEV pathway causes compensatory changes in the concentration of MEP intermediates DOXP and CDP-ME, suggesting that the MEV pathway is functional and that the pathways interact at the metabolic level. Finally, the MEV pathway is upregulated early in the shift down to hypoxia, suggesting that it may provide metabolic flexibility to this bacterium. Interestingly, we found that our complemented strains, which vary in copy number of the polyprenyl synthetase idsB2 , responded differently to peroxide and UV stresses, suggesting a role for this gene as a determinant of downstream prenyl phosphate metabolism. Together, these findings suggest that MEV may serve as an anaplerotic pathway to make isoprenoids under stress conditions. IMPORTANCE Organisms from all domains of life utilize isoprenoids to carry out thousands of critical and auxiliary cellular processes, including signaling, maintaining membrane integrity, stress response, and host-pathogen interactions. The common precursor of all isoprenoids is synthesized via one of two biosynthetic pathways. Importantly, some bacteria encode both pathways, including M. marinum . We found that only one pathway is essential in M. marinum , while the nonessential pathway may confer metabolic flexibility to help the bacterium better adapt to various environmental conditions. We also found that the polyprenyl synthetase IdsB2 plays an important role in driving such phenotypes. Further, we demonstrate metabolic interplay between both functional pathways. These insights represent the first characterization of isoprenoid biosynthesis in dual pathway-encoding mycobacteria.

Qabar, Christine M. [Department of Plant and Micro↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sulfur Species in Zinc-Rich Condylar Zones of a Rat Temporomandibular Joint

We performed synchrotron-based micro-X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (µ-XANES) coupled with micro-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) for the identification of elements that included biometal zinc (Zn) and nonmetal sulfur (S) (and its species) in the condylar zones of a rat temporomandibular joint (TMJ). Zone-specific spatial localization of biometal Zn and nonmetal S from a materials viewpoint when correlated with hypoxia inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) (a surrogate for tissue oxygenation) can provide insights into Zn-specific redox pathways at the vulnerable subchondral interface. Histologic localization of Zn, HIF-1α, and sulfur-rich proteoglycans (PGs) were mapped using an optical microscope. The µ-XRF maps coupled with site-specific micro-X-ray diffraction (µ-XRD) patterns were used to underline Zn-incorporated biological apatite in the subchondral bone and the bone of a rat TMJ condyle. Results demonstrated an association between Zn, PG, and HIF-1α histologic maps with µ-XRF, µ-XANES, and µ-XRD data and provided insights into plausible biological S species in Zn-enriched zones of a rat TMJ condyle. Spatially localized Zn and S underscore their roles in cell and tissue functions in a zone-specific manner. Elemental Zn with organic and inorganic S species at the cartilage-bone interface and the biomineral phase of Zn-enriched biological apatite from subchondral bone to condylar bone were ascertained using µ-XRF-XANES and µ-XRF-XRD. The coupled µ-XRF-XANES in situ complemented with µ-XRF-XRD in situ and immunohistochemistry provided valuable biological insights into zone-specific biological pathways in rat TMJ condyles. Based on these data, we present a workflow to reliably map and correlate S species within Zn-enriched regions of cartilage, bone, and their interface. We suggest the use of this correlative and complementary microspectroscopic spatial information for zone-specific localization of biometal Zn and nonmetal S to gain insights into plausible microanatomy-specific oxidative stress in the TMJ.

apatites↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Natural variation in growth and yield to waterlogging across climate-diverse pennycress accessions

Many winter annual crops, such as pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L.), are subjected to heavy precipitation events during their growing season. Therefore, it is essential to identify pennycress accessions with natural variation in flooding resilience. We used climate modeling data to assess spring soil moisture levels in the geographic origins of 471 natural pennycress accessions. We selected 34 accessions with variation in predicted soil moisture and tested survivability under prolonged waterlogging at the rosette stage. It took seven weeks for the first accessions to die, indicating that pennycress is hardy to prolonged waterlogging at the vegetative stage. Furthermore, we chose ‘susceptible’ and ‘tolerant’ accessions to waterlog for one week at the reproductive stage, the growth stage aligned with spring rainfall. Six accessions had significantly reduced seed weight at maturity and two had minimal impacts on growth and seed yield after waterlogging and can be further explored for adaptive traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗