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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control Oriented Model of Cabin-HVAC System in a Long-Haul Trucks for Energy Management Applications

Super Truck II is a 48V mild hybrid class 8 truck with an all auxiliary loads powered purely by the battery pack. Electric Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) load is the most prominent battery load during the hotel period, when the truck driver is resting inside the sleeper. For the PACCAR Super Truck II (ST-II) project a 48 V battery system provides the required power during the hotel period. A cabin-HVAC model estimates the electric load on the 48V battery system, allowing the control system to implement an efficient energy management strategy that avoids engine idling during the hotel period. The thermal model accounts for the sun load due to the time of day and the geographic location of the truck during the hotel period. The cabin-HVAC model has two parts. First, a grey box model with two heat exchangers (Condenser and Evaporator) working in unison with refrigerant mass flow rate as an input and HVAC load as an output. Second, a two-node cabin model formulated to estimate the cabin temperature as a function of the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), HVAC load and ambient temperature. The models are calibrated using experimental cabin-HVAC system data as for long-haul class 8 truck (e.g. ST-II). Here, the model simulations show that the overall Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 0.4°C between the experimental and simulated cabin temperature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

OpenStudio®-MCP [SWR-26-035]

OpenStudio®-MCP is a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server that lets AI assistants perform building energy modeling through natural language. Rather than requiring users to learn the OpenStudio® SDK, EnergyPlus® scripting, or Ruby/Python automation, the server translates conversational requests into sequences of tool calls that create models, design HVAC systems, run simulations, and extract results — all within a single chat session. The server's 124 tools are organized into a skills architecture where each skill encapsulates a domain of building energy modeling (envelope, HVAC, loads, weather, simulation, results) behind typed, LLM-friendly interfaces. High-leverage operations like applying ASHRAE 90.1 baseline systems or generating standards-compliant typical buildings are exposed as single tool calls that internally wire dozens of OpenStudio® objects. Bundled measures from ComStock™ and Openstudio® -common-measures-gem are wrapped with dedicated tools and typed arguments rather than exposed through a generic measure interface, so AI models get consistent, error-resistant recipes without needing to discover measure arguments at runtime. A key design decision is structured results extraction: six SQL-based tools return surgical ~300–1,000 token responses (end-use breakdowns, envelope summaries, HVAC sizing, timeseries data) instead of requiring the AI to parse ~100K-token raw HTML reports, making iterative design exploration practical within context window limits. The codebase is designed as a reference implementation — explicit, well-commented, and modular — so that other simulation engines (EnergyPlus® standalone, TRNSYS, DOE-2) can use it as a template for building their own MCP servers.

Ball, Brian [National Laboratory of the Rockies (N↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Electric Vehicle Range and Charging Needs: Interactions Between Ambient Temperature, Commute Patterns, and State-of-Charge Usage

Electric vehicle (EV) performance can vary substantially under real-world operating conditions, particularly due to ambient temperature effects on energy consumption, battery behavior, and thermal management requirements. This study quantifies how weather conditions, daily driving patterns, and State-of-Charge (SOC) usage strategies jointly influence EV driving range, charging frequency, and overall energy efficiency. A detailed and experimentally validated Autonomie vehicle model is developed, integrating a powertrain, a mono-zonal cabin model, and a battery electro-thermal model. Three battery sizes (200-, 300-, and 400-mile homologated ranges) are assessed across five commute profiles (20–200 miles) and six ambient temperatures (−18 °C to 50 °C), including scenarios with and without preconditioning. Results show that extreme temperatures could significantly decrease the maximum achievable range by up to 55% in cold conditions (−18 °C) and 40% in hot conditions (50 °C), relative to moderate conditions. Larger battery packs retain a greater fraction of their nominal range under thermal stress, while smaller packs experience sharper relative penalties due to the higher contribution of thermal loads to total energy demand. The analysis further demonstrates that limiting operation to partial SOC windows (e.g., 80–20%), a common real-world practice, significantly reduces achievable range and increases charging frequency, particularly in cold weather. Thermal preconditioning while plugged in is shown to mitigate these effects for short trips, reducing energy consumption by up to 31% in hot conditions and 7% in cold conditions. The findings demonstrate how climate, SOC usage behavior, and thermal management jointly shape the practical driving capability of EVs, highlighting the importance of efficient thermal management and realistic user charging strategies for ensuring reliable EV operation across diverse climatic scenarios.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Battery Equivalent Model for Residential HVAC

Flexible loads, especially heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems can be used to provide a battery-like service to the power grid by varying their demand up and down over a baseline. Recent work has reported that the round-trip efficiency for providing grid services with HVAC systems can be close to 1. Inspired by this promising result, in this work, we rigorously develop a battery equivalent model (BEM) for residential HVAC systems. Relying only on typically available data, the proposed BEM will bridge the observability and controllability gaps between utility companies and customers. The proposed BEM will enable the utility companies to manage the flexible HVAC devices as easy as charging/discharging the conventional energy storage devices. Validated physics-based models are used to train the BEM, whose prediction accuracy is illustrated through a simulation study.

Dong, Jin↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: HVAC Load Flexibility

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock(TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "HVAC Load Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tri-Level Scheduling Model Considering Residential Demand Flexibility of Aggregated HVACs and EVs Under Distribution LMP

Residential loads, especially heating, ventilation and air conditioners (HVACs) and electric vehicles (EVs), have great potentials to provide demand flexibility which is an attribute of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Under this new paradigm, first, EV and HVAC aggregator models are developed in this paper to represent the fleet of GEBs, in which the aggregated parameters are obtained based on a new approach of data generation and least squares parameter estimation (DG-LSPE), which can deal with heterogeneous HVACs. Then, a tri-level bidding and dispatching framework is established based on competitive distribution operation with distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). Furthermore, the first two levels form a bilevel model to optimize the aggregators’ payment and to represent the interdependency between load aggregators and the distribution system operator (DSO) using DLMP, and the third level is to dispatch the optimal load aggregation to all residents by the proposed priority list-based demand dispatching algorithm. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 33-Bus system illustrate three main technical reasons of payment reduction due to demand flexibility: load shift, DLMP step changes, and power losses. They can be used as general guidelines for better decision-making for future planning and operation of demand response programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Ideal Thermal Air Loads

This study provides hypothetical thermal heating and cooling loads for ComStock models representing the U.S. commercial building stock. This measure scenario removes all HVAC models from the baseline ComStock building model and instead uses "ideal air" to meet loads. "Ideal air" can be thought of as an HVAC unit that mixes air at the zone exhaust condition with the specified amount of outdoor air, and then adds or removes heat and moisture at 100% efficiency to produce a supply air stream at the specified conditions. The resulting ideal thermal loads are represented under the "district" fuel type for both heating and cooling and can be found in both annual and timeseries results in the ComStock public dataset. This measure scenario does not represent any real technology or improvement, but rather, serves as a resource for thermal heating and cooling loads for buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cabin Thermal Management Analysis for SuperTruck II Next-Generation Hybrid Electric Truck Design

In this article, we present a multistage, coupled thermal management simulation approach, informed by physical testing where available, to aid design decisions for PACCAR's SuperTruck II hybrid truck cabin concept. Focus areas include cabin insulation, battery sizing, and sleeper curtain position, as well as heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) component and accessory configurations, to maintain or improve thermal comfort while saving energy. The authors analyzed weather data and determined the national vehicle miles traveled weighted temperature and solar conditions for long-haul trucks. Example weather day profiles were selected to approximate the 5th and 95th percentile weighted conditions. A daylong drive cycle was developed to impose appropriate external wind conditions during rest and driving periods. Using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's vehicle HVAC modeling and simulation tool VTCab, HVAC load design trade-off studies for the new truck geometry concept were completed. Parameters analyzed included effects of paint color, insulation, glass transmissivity, and curtain location. Simulation results helped with early design material selections for efficient cabin climate control. A detailed three-dimensional computer-aided engineering (CAE), computational fluid dynamics (CFD), radiation, and human physiology co-simulation, referred to in this article as CAE Thermal-CFD, was used to evaluate thermal comfort and energy impacts of diffuser configurations and air supply settings in driving and hoteling modes. Analysis revealed that it is more difficult to heat the cabin in hoteling mode during the winter than to cool the space in the summer. This seasonal load profile drives the requirement of additional energy storage for heating comfort. To determine the battery capacity requirement, multiday HVAC operation drive cycle simulations were then completed, showing that a 15-kWh battery would be required for HVAC operation during hoteling. Results helped reduce cabin thermal loads, determine component sizing requirements, and improve occupant comfort to save fuel and contribute to the economic viability of the hybrid system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Agent Hierarchical Deep Reinforcement Learning for HVAC Control With Flexible DERs

As electricity consumption in commercial and residential buildings continues to rise, reducing energy costs presents an increasing challenge. Heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which typically account for 40%-50% of a building's energy use, are prime targets for energy savings. Intelligent control of HVAC temperature through the exploitation of HVAC load flexibility brings significant potential to reduce energy consumption and electricity expenses. The nonlinear models of HVAC systems challenge traditional control methods, while the uncertainty introduced by HVAC load flexibility complicates distributed energy resource (DER) management using conventional optimal dispatch techniques. In response to these challenges, we propose a hierarchical multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach. The lower-level agents focus on balancing comfort and energy conservation, while the upper-level DRL agents optimize the use of DERs to reduce peak demand based on the control outcomes of the HVAC by the lower-level agents. Here, in the upper-level agents, we incorporate a multi-agent structure based on ensemble learning, which acts based on historical and current data without relying on precise load forecasting to address the delayed rewarding issue in DRL. This allows for the effective reduction of energy costs. The proposed method is tested using a real-world microgrid comprising 413 buildings in Southern California, and the results demonstrate that our approach can significantly reduce overall electricity bills while ensuring the comfort of consumers and residents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-simulation Framework for Community-scale Building-grid Integration [SWR-21-75]

Distributed energy resources (DERs), including rooftop solar, energy storage, and flexible loads, are gaining popularity as costs decline and as building owners and utilities realize their benefits. DERs can improve distribution system efficiency, help prevent the need for expensive grid upgrades, and increase the resilience of local communities. However, they can also cause difficulties in grid operations and can require controls to achieve their benefits. To address this challenge, NREL researchers have developed a community-scale solution that assesses the impacts of DERs and their control strategies on a distribution system. The framework has been shown to reduce solar photovoltaic (PV) curtailment to 0%, mitigate the adverse impact of solar variability on the distribution voltage, and provide up to 5-day critical load support during emergency events. Utilizing 5 different modules representing the feeder, buildings, home energy management systems, an aggregator, and a utility controller, NREL expects this simulation technology to play a critical role in the continued integration of DERs. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), solar curtailments accounted for 94% of the total energy curtailed in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) in 2020. By enabling Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utility operators to bring solar curtailments to 0%, the electrical grid can become less dependent on fossil-fueled power generation sources. NREL's co-simulation framework contains five major components: Distribution Feeder Model: describes the distribution feeder topology using OpenDSS, including the locations of all DERs. Residential Building Model: simulates a large number of buildings at a high resolution using OCHRETM. The model is equipped to control equipment based on signals from an external module. The model includes major household appliances such as HVAC and a water heater, non-dispatchable load models, a distributed PV system, and a home battery system. Home Energy Management System: optimizes the controls for the devices in a home using foreseeTM. The control can adjust based on the user preferences including cost, comfort, and convenience. In hierarchical control scenarios, where the houses follow signals from an aggregator, the home energy management system provides a flexibility band with a range of power and follows the dispatch signals received from aggregator. Community-Level Aggregator: solves for optimal energy dispatch based on the flexibility bands received from each home and the grid service signal received from the utility controller. Utility-Level Controller: provides grid signals for voltage control using Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), such as solar systems, in the community.

Balamurugan, Sivasathya Pradha↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Residential HVAC Control with Consideration of Human Occupancy

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) development described herein uses model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to minimize energy cost during residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operation. Building cooling loads and HVAC operation are difficult to accurately model due to complexity, lack of measurements and data, and model specific performance, so online machine learning is used to allow for real-time readjustment in performance. Energy costs for the multi-zone cooling unit shown in this work are minimized by scheduling on/off commands around dynamic prices. By taking advantage of precooling events that take place when the price is low, the agent is able to reduce operational cost without violating user comfort. The DRL controller was tested in simulation where the learner achieved a 43.89% cost reduction when compared to traditional, fixed-setpoint operation. The system is now ready for the next phase of testing in a live, real-time home environment.

Mckee, Evan↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Modified Sequence-to-point HVAC Load Disaggregation Algorithm

This paper presents a modified sequence-to-point (S2P) algorithm for disaggregating the heat, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load from the total building electricity consumption. The original S2P model is convolutional neural network (CNN) based, which uses load profiles as inputs. We propose three modifications. First, the input convolution layer is changed from 1D to 2D so that normalized temperature profiles are also used inputs to the S2P model. Second, a drop-out layer is added to improve adaptability and generalizability so that the model trained in one area can be transferred to other geographical areas without labelled HVAC data. Third, a fine-tuning process is proposed for areas with a small amount of labelled HVAC data so that the pre-trained S2P model can be fine-tuned to achieve higher disaggregation accuracy (i.e., better transferability) in other areas. The model is first trained and tested using smart meter and sub-metered HVAC data collected in Austin, Texas. Then, the trained model is tested on two other areas: Boulder, Colorado and San Diego, California. Simulation results show that the proposed modified S2P algorithm outperforms the original S2P model and the support-vector machine based approach in accuracy, adaptability, and transferability.

Ye, Kai↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper presents the analysis which help visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient grid operations.

behind-the-meter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Operating a commercial building HVAC load as a virtual battery through airflow control

Virtual battery (VB) is an innovative method to model flexibility of building loads and effectively coordinate them with other resources at a system level. Unlike a real battery with a dedicated power conversion system for charging control, methods are required for operating building loads to deviate from the baseline to respond to grid signals. This paper presents a VB control for a commercial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to follow the desired power consumption in real-time by adjusting zonal airflow rates. The proposed method consists of two parts. At the system level, a mixed feedforward and feedback control is used to estimate the desired total airflow rate. At the zone level, two priority-based algorithms are then proposed to distribute the total airflow rate to individual zones. In particular, a zonal airflow limit estimation method is proposed using machine-learning techniques, in contrast to physics-based thermal models in existing studies, to more accurately capture zonal thermal dynamics and improve temperature control performance. An office building on the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory campus is implemented in EnergyPlus, and used to illustrate and validate the proposed control.

Wang, Jiyu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced co-simulation framework for assessing the interplay between occupant behaviors and demand flexibility in commercial buildings

With buildings contributing significantly to electricity usage, enabling demand flexibility becomes a challenge, especially when accounting for occupant comfort. This study introduces an innovative co-simulation framework integrating multiple models: heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, building zone load, indoor airflow, supervisory control, and occupant comfort and behavior. Uniquely, this framework allows for a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of building systems and occupant interactions in demand response events. Using this framework, we conducted a case study using a typical small office building model. Specifically, we focused on three areas: (1) the impact of indoor airflow modeling on energy use, occupant comfort, and behaviors forecasting, (2) the impact of occupant behaviors on demand flexibility, and (3) occupant comfort and behaviors under demand response events. Key performance indicators such as energy use, flexibility factor, durations of occupant discomfort and occupant behaviors were analyzed. Our findings indicated variations in energy usage and occupant comfort within demand flexibility events, marked by uncertainty boundaries, with variability in demand shedding up to 57.9%. Here, we concluded that this framework is suitable for analyzing typical commercial buildings and their HVAC systems in terms of demand flexibility potential under the impact of occupant behaviors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multizone Residential HVAC Modeling

This report will evaluate several building physics modeling tools to determine which are best suited for developing next-generation zoning technology. These modeling tools will be evaluated for their ability to predict room-level thermal loads, HVAC system operation, temperature and comfort predictions, and scalability. Any gaps in the existing tools will be identified and a path forward will be discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗